Boyd Independent School District Demographic Study Fall 2017 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow
Economic Conditions DFW Area (September 2017) 2.8% 99,800 new jobs National rate 1.2% Unemployment Rate 32,086 2,651 more than 3Q16 Job Growth U.S. 4.1% Texas 4.0% DFW MSA 3.4% Wise County 3.5% -1.3% Annualized Home Starts Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy 2
Local Economic Conditions Decatur Business Park The City of Decatur recently annexed appx. 162 acres of land into the city limits to allow the Decatur EDC to develop a new business park within Decatur ISD The land was purchased in September by the Decatur EDC Negotiations are currently underway with a prospect that will serve as the anchor for the park 3
Boyd ISD Home Sales January October 2017 Home Sales by Transaction Type REO Sale 3.33% Regular Resale 84.44% 2017 BISD Home Sales by Type Foreclosure Sale 5.56% New Home Sale 6.67% Boyd ISD has had 90 home sales to date in 2017, and nearly 7% have been of new homes The average sale price for a new home in Boyd ISD in 2017 is $312,946 The average sale price for an existing home in Boyd ISD in 2017 is $245,365 4
Texas Enrollment Trends Total State Enrollment 5,600,000 5,400,000 5,200,000 5,075,840 5,359,127 5,232,065 5,299,587 5,000,000 4,933,617 5,151,925 4,998,579 4,800,000 4,749,571 4,592,849 4,847,844 4,600,000 4,671,493 4,519,164 4,400,000 2016/17 State Enrollment Total Enrollment 5,359,127 Total Growth 59,540 4,200,000 4,000,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Enrollment Change 120,145 98,273 85,773 78,644 80,140 77,261 73,685 78,078 76,085 64,962 67,522 59,540 5
Region 10 & 11 Enrollment Trends Boyd ISD added 123 students in the last 5 years, a growth rate of 11.9% 6
District Housing Overview Boyd ISD has nearly 80 lots available to build on Active Subdivisions Future Subdivisions Nearly 700 future homes are planned within BISD 7
Residential Activity Highland Oaks Highland Oaks Appx. 437 total lots Appx. 375 future lots Appx. 42 vacant developed lots Appx. 20 homes occupied Phases 2 (125 lots) and 3 (250 lots) will be developed as market demand necessitates No development plans submitted at this time Lots for individual sale 4 homes sold in 2016 6 homes sold to date in 2017 $400K+ Current student yield: 0.40 8
Residential Activity Saddlehorn Ranch Saddlehorn Ranch 50 total lots 20 future lots 9 vacant developed lots 21 homes occupied Phases 1 and 2 delivered Phase 3 (20 lots) no plans for development at this time Lots for individual sale 2 new homes sold in 2016 $350K - $625K Current student yield: 0.80 9
Residential Activity Meadow Park Meadow Park Appx. 77 total lots Appx. 17 vacant developed lots Appx. 60 homes occupied Lots for individual sale 3 new homes sold in 2016 1 new home sold to date in 2017 $145K - $338K Current student yield: 1.01 10
Future Residential Activity Lucky Ridge Lucky Ridge 98 total lots Phase 1 (34 lots) in Springtown ISD groundwork is underway, homes starting spring 2018 Phase 2 (64 lots) in Boyd ISD groundwork anticipated to start in 2018 Lots for individual sale Lot prices $42K - $48K Paradise ISD Springtown ISD 11
Future Residential Activity Parr Addition Parr Addition 38 total future lots possible Developer is currently considering options for development No plans have been submitted at this time Doug Parr Custom Homes 12
Future Residential Activity Flanigan Addition Flanigan Addition Appx. 5 acres 22 total future lots Currently in pre-development, working with city engineers Developer anticipates home construction to start by end 2018 13
Future Residential Activity Flanigan Tract Flanigan Tract Appx. 80 Acres Developer is currently considering options for purchase of this land for development No plans for development at this time 14
Student Density Map Boyd ISD has 178 students residing outside the district This represents approximately 13% of the total student body 15
TEA Transfer Report Transfers In From 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 5 Yr Change Azle ISD 18 29 23 21 28 32 14 Bridgeport ISD 3 3 5 6 3 5 2 Decatur ISD 10 17 19 14 14 18 8 Northwest ISD 79 96 89 96 96 85 6 Paradise ISD 8 10 6 3 7 6-2 Springtown ISD 26 28 29 22 26 30 4 Total Transfers In* 157 186 177 171 184 183 26 Transfers Out To 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 5 Yr Change Azle ISD 3 5 8 5 8 9 6 Decatur ISD 23 26 29 25 28 26 3 Paradise ISD 16 11 15 13 13 16 0 Total Transfers Out* 59 58 74 60 64 65 6 *Transfers include additional districts per TEA rounding rules 16
Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Year (OCT) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth Total % 2013/14 1 65 86 87 75 86 70 97 68 86 84 67 98 99 86 1,155 2014/15 1 56 92 77 80 80 87 78 95 68 94 91 67 99 89 1,154-1 -0.1% 2015/16 2 62 88 84 78 81 89 88 82 102 75 105 90 62 89 1,177 23 2.0% 2016/17 1 59 100 87 93 86 91 90 101 86 110 81 107 99 54 1,245 68 5.8% 2017/18 5 61 97 92 90 93 88 99 96 114 99 108 100 98 95 1,335 90 7.2% 2018/19 5 61 96 93 98 93 100 93 106 102 126 109 117 98 89 1,386 51 3.8% 2019/20 5 61 94 90 100 102 100 105 102 114 113 136 121 117 90 1,450 64 4.6% 2020/21 5 61 98 87 93 102 104 103 113 108 123 123 155 117 109 1,501 51 3.5% 2021/22 5 61 98 92 92 96 107 109 108 123 119 133 137 152 107 1,539 38 2.5% 2022/23 5 61 108 92 93 95 101 112 117 116 135 129 149 134 140 1,587 48 3.1% 2023/24 5 61 102 101 99 93 105 109 115 126 127 149 145 145 123 1,605 18 1.1% 2024/25 5 61 110 96 106 103 99 108 119 124 140 138 167 142 133 1,651 46 2.9% 2025/26 5 61 109 103 100 109 110 104 115 128 136 153 155 164 131 1,683 32 1.9% 2026/27 5 61 111 102 109 102 118 116 110 124 141 149 172 152 151 1,723 40 2.4% 2027/28 5 61 114 104 107 112 109 123 124 119 137 154 167 168 140 1,744 21 1.2% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Boyd ISD could enroll more than 1,500 students by 2020 5 year growth = 252 students 2022/23 enrollment = 1,587 10 year growth = 409 students 2027/28 enrollment = 1,744 17
Ten Year Forecast By Campus HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS CAMPUS 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 BOYD ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 426 438 446 452 446 444 454 461 481 487 490 503 ELEMENTARY TOTALS 426 438 446 452 446 444 454 461 481 487 490 503 Elementary Absolute Change 31 12 8 6 6 2 10 7 20 6 3 13 Elementary Percent Change 7.85% 2.82% 1.83% 1.35% -1.33% -0.45% 2.25% 1.54% 4.34% 1.25% 0.62% 2.65% BOYD INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL 282 283 299 307 320 324 330 329 326 329 344 356 INTERMEDIATE TOTALS 282 283 299 307 320 324 330 329 326 329 344 356 Intermediate Absolute Change 23 1 16 8 13 4 6-1 -3 3 15 12 Intermediate Percent Change 8.88% 0.35% 5.65% 2.68% 4.23% 1.25% 1.85% -0.30% -0.91% 0.92% 4.56% 3.49% BOYD JUNIOR HIGH 196 213 228 227 231 242 251 253 264 264 265 256 JUNIOR HIGHT TOTALS 196 213 228 227 231 242 251 253 264 264 265 256 Junior High Absolute Change 19 17 15-1 4 11 9 2 11 0 1-9 Junior High Percent Change 10.73% 8.67% 7.04% -0.44% 1.76% 4.76% 3.72% 0.80% 4.35% 0.00% 0.38% -3.40% BOYD HIGH SCHOOL 341 401 413 464 504 529 552 562 580 603 624 629 HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 341 401 413 464 504 529 552 562 580 603 624 629 High School Absolute Change -5 60 12 51 40 25 23 10 18 23 21 5 High School Percent Change -1.45% 17.60% 2.99% 12.35% 8.62% 4.96% 4.35% 1.81% 3.20% 3.97% 3.48% 0.80% DISTRICT TOTALS 1,245 1,335 1,386 1,450 1,501 1,539 1,587 1,605 1,651 1,683 1,723 1,744 District Absolute Change 68 90 51 64 51 38 48 18 46 32 40 21 District Percent Change 5.78% 7.23% 3.82% 4.62% 3.52% 2.53% 3.12% 1.13% 2.87% 1.94% 2.38% 1.22% Boyd Elementary could reach over 500 students by 2027 Boyd Intermediate could enroll over 300 students in 2019 Boyd Junior High may reach over 250 students by 2022 Boyd High School could enroll over 600 students by 2025 18
Ten Year Forecast (new housing impact) By Grade Level Year (OCT) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth Total % 2013/14 1 65 86 87 75 86 70 97 68 86 84 67 98 99 86 1,155-5 2014/15 1 56 92 77 80 80 87 78 95 68 94 91 67 99 89 1,154-1 -0.1% 2015/16 2 62 88 84 78 81 89 88 82 102 75 105 90 62 89 1,177 23 2.0% 2016/17 1 59 100 87 93 86 91 90 101 86 110 81 107 99 54 1,245 68 5.8% 2017/18 5 61 97 92 90 93 88 99 96 114 99 108 100 98 95 1,335 90 7.2% 2018/19 5 61 96 93 98 93 100 93 106 102 126 109 117 98 89 1,386 51 3.8% 2019/20 5 61 94 90 100 102 100 105 102 114 113 139 118 117 90 1,450 64 4.6% 2020/21 5 61 98 92 93 102 110 103 113 108 123 127 152 114 109 1,510 60 4.1% 2021/22 5 61 100 98 101 97 107 115 108 123 119 141 138 149 105 1,567 57 3.8% 2022/23 5 61 110 97 99 105 104 112 124 119 135 134 153 135 137 1,630 63 4.0% 2023/24 5 61 109 109 105 102 116 112 115 134 130 155 146 149 124 1,672 42 2.6% 2024/25 5 61 116 108 116 109 112 119 122 125 149 143 168 143 137 1,733 61 3.6% 2025/26 5 61 115 114 114 120 119 118 127 133 137 168 155 165 132 1,783 50 2.9% 2026/27 5 61 120 114 121 118 132 125 125 138 146 154 182 152 152 1,845 62 3.5% 2027/28 5 61 124 118 121 125 129 138 134 136 152 163 167 178 140 1,891 46 2.5% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Boyd ISD could enroll more than 1,500 students by 2020 5 year growth = 295 students 2022/23 enrollment = 1,630 10 year growth = 556 students 2027/28 enrollment = 1,891 19
Ten Year Forecast (new housing impact) By Campus HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS CAMPUS 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 BOYD ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 426 438 446 452 451 462 477 491 515 529 539 554 ELEMENTARY TOTALS 426 438 446 452 451 462 477 491 515 529 539 554 Elementary Absolute Change 31 12 8 6-1 11 15 14 24 14 10 15 Elementary Percent Change 7.85% 2.82% 1.83% 1.35% -0.22% 2.44% 3.25% 2.94% 4.89% 2.72% 1.89% 2.78% BOYD INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL 282 283 299 307 326 330 340 343 353 364 382 401 INTERMEDIATE TOTALS 282 283 299 307 326 330 340 343 353 364 382 401 Intermediate Absolute Change 23 1 16 8 19 4 10 3 10 11 18 19 Intermediate Percent Change 8.88% 0.35% 5.65% 2.68% 6.19% 1.23% 3.03% 0.88% 2.92% 3.12% 4.95% 4.97% BOYD JUNIOR HIGH 196 213 228 227 231 242 254 264 274 270 284 288 JUNIOR HIGHT TOTALS 196 213 228 227 231 242 254 264 274 270 284 288 Junior High Absolute Change 19 17 15-1 4 11 12 10 10-4 14 4 Junior High Percent Change 10.73% 8.67% 7.04% -0.44% 1.76% 4.76% 4.96% 3.94% 3.79% -1.46% 5.19% 1.41% BOYD HIGH SCHOOL 341 401 413 464 502 533 559 574 591 620 640 648 HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 341 401 413 464 502 533 559 574 591 620 640 648 High School Absolute Change -5 60 12 51 38 31 26 15 17 29 20 8 High School Percent Change -1.45% 17.60% 2.99% 12.35% 8.19% 6.18% 4.88% 2.68% 2.96% 4.91% 3.23% 1.25% DISTRICT TOTALS 1,245 1,335 1,386 1,450 1,510 1,567 1,630 1,672 1,733 1,783 1,845 1,891 District Absolute Change 68 90 51 64 60 57 63 42 61 50 62 46 District Percent Change 5.78% 7.23% 3.82% 4.62% 4.14% 3.77% 4.02% 2.58% 3.65% 2.89% 3.48% 2.49% Boyd Elementary could reach over 500 students by 2024 Boyd Intermediate could enroll over 300 students in 2019 Boyd Junior High may reach over 250 students by 2022 Boyd High School could enroll over 600 students by 2025 20
Summary Wise County unemployment is currently below 4% The average new home price in Boyd ISD is $312,946 The average price for an existing home in BISD is $245,365 Boyd ISD has roughly 450 future lots planned Roughly 13% of Boyd ISD students reside outside the district Boyd ISD can expect an enrollment growth of roughly 250 students in the next 5 years 2022/23 enrollment projection = 1,587. Boyd ISD is projected to have nearly 1,750 students for the 2027/28 school year. 21