Confederation of British Metalforming John Houseman Director General
Who are the Confederation of British Metalforming? The leading trade association for the metalforming industry.
National Metalforming Centre
CBM Membership 2009 6 40 51 Forging Fasteners 20 Sheet metal 72 Associates Overseas
Costs of the Recession
Begbies Traynor Says the Worst for Insolvencies is Yet to Come as 134,000 UK Companies Show Material Signs of Financial Distress in Q3 2009 20 th Oct 2009
Financial costs Human costs National costs International costs
Administrations 1:120 Purdie Ellcock Redfern Stevens Barton Cold Form Metal Pressings Gp George Carter pressings Sonas Wagon Footprint Tools Welconstruct Grd Engineering T W Stampings Rojac
Unemployment 1997----------
Europe: Unemployment Rates Unemployment rising across Europe as the global recession continues Economic recovery begins in 2010, but job losses continue Over the forecast horizon, higher than trend unemployment expected Source: Feri Gmbh
People in work 28.89 m Down 600,000000 on last year Greatest falls in finance, business services and construction ti Redundancies da es 246,000 in three months to July 7.99m inactive people of working age!!!!
Scrappage Scheme 227,000 new cars already (end Aug) Extra 100,000 cars extended Car production down 41.2% YoY Comm Vehicles down 61.6% Pre-empting 2010 could stave future sales Car Dealerships could halve
M j IIncentive ti P Major Programs Schemes Introduction Expiration Impact Bonus/Malus Scrappage January 2008 January 2009 Ongoing; reduced through 2010/2011 +340,000 Scrappage CO2 Tax January 2009 July 2009 September 2009 Ongoing + 1,000,000 Scrappage, Scrappage including Eco Tax February 2009 December 2009 +200,000 Spain Plan Vive Plan 2000 December 2008 June 2009 July 2010 June 2010 +120,000 United Kingdom Scrappage May 2009 March 2010 +300,000 +300 000 Loan Subsidy Scrappage January 2009 J 2010? January Ongoing D b 2010? December +130,000 in 2010 France Germany Italy Russia Source: CSM International
Production Forecast 2009 SAAR (Mill lions) 30 30% Month SAAR % Chg 20% 25 10% Jan Feb 12.4 14.3-34.0-40.7 Mar 14.4-30.1 20 0% Apr 16.3-37.1-10% 15 May 15.9-25.7-20% Jun 16.8-18.4 10-30% Jul 18.1-15.0 Aug 16.1-16.6-40% 5 Sep 17.3-12.2 Y/Y % 2008 2009-50% Oct 17.0-7.1 0-60% Nov 17.2 10.3 Ja an Fe eb Ma ar Ap pr Ma ay Ju un J ul Au ug Se ep O ct No ov De ec % Y/ /Y Change Dec 17.0 23.22 Source: CSM International
European Capacity 2005 2010 2015 2005-2015 Plants Capacity Plants Capacity Plants Capacity Plants Capacity Central Europe 14 2.0 15 3.0 16 3.4 2 +1.4 Eastern Europe 30 3.0 40 3.5 42 5.1 12 + 2.1 France 16 3.9 15 2.7 15 2.6-1 -1.3 Germany 30 5.8 29 5.8 28 5.8-2 Level Italy 14 1.7 13 1.1 12 1.2-2 -0.4 Spain 13 3.2 13 2.5 11 2.4-2 -0.8 United Kingdom 26 2.1 20 1.6 20 1.6-6 -0.5 Western Europe 115 18.6 107 15.1 101 14.9-14 - 3.7 Total Europe 159 23.6 162 21.5 159 23.33 0-02 0.2 Source; CSM International Note: Capacity in millions
JLR planned to source more than one-third of its vehicle parts from low-cost countries including India, compared with about one-fifth now. David Smith, chief executive,
Blue Skies??
's / t Steel prices CRC 's per tonne 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 Low Avg High 100 0 2008 2009 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1.6m cars 3 m engines
300 cars a day
Share of Economic Output Manufacturing 14% Educ & Health 13% Transport & Comm 8% Financial Services 32% Construction 6% Farming & Mining 6% Public Admin 5% Retail & Whole 16%
Productivity Growth (1997-2007)
Summary Shock of Oct 2008 Govm t support : Scrappage, tax defer Productivity improvements of the past Steel & energy prices Beneficial exchange rates for exporters Success areas food/aerospace/oil and gas/power Car sales rose 11.4% 368,000 new cars Sept New models coming on stream for 2010 John Powell s birthday
Everyone s suffering!!!
Road to Recovery