ENERGETSKI INSTITUT HRVOJE POŽAR NISKO-UGLJIČNI PROMETNI Chart TitleSEKTOR U 25. GODINI 1,2 REALNOST ILI UTOPIJA? 1,8,6,4,2 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 23 25 Series1 25. Forum: Dan energije u Hrvatskoj Zagreb, 18.11.216
199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Mtoe Statistical data EU28 1 4, 1 2, Finalna potrošnja energije Struktura finalne potrošnje energije, 214. 1, 8, 6, 2,33% 13,76% 25,88% Industrija 4, Promet 2, 24,79% Kućanstva Poljoprivreda, Usluge Promet Industrija Kućanstva Usluge Poljoprivreda 33,24%
199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Mtoe Mtoe Mtoe Statistical data Croatia 8 7 6 5 2,5 2, 3,5% 11,18% 2,5 16,61% 4 3 1,5 2 Industrija Promet 2 1, 1,5 Kućanstva Poljoprivreda 1,5 36,71% 1 32,% Usluge i ostali,,5 Promet Kućanstva Industrija Usluge i ostali Poljoprivreda Cestovni promet Željeznički promet Pomorski i riječni promet Zračni promet Finalna potrošnja Benzin Dizel UNP Mlazno gorivo Prirodni plin Električna energija Biogorivo
199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Statistical data EU28, Croatia 199=1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG)* by Sector: EU-28 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,,9,8,7,6,5,4 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,8,6,4,2 Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries **** 12% Commercial / Ins titutional 3% Residential 9% Energy Industries Industry *** Transport ** Croatia Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG)* by Sector: EU-28 (Shares of Total Emissions: 214) Residential and commercial Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries **** Other ***** Total Energetske transformacije Industrija i graditeljstvo Industry *** Promet Transport ** 2% 23% Kućanstva, usluge i poljoprivreda Ukupno Other ***** 5% Fugitivna emisija Energy Industries 28% Energy Industries Industry *** Transport ** Residential Commercial / Institutional Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries **** Other ***** * Excluding LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) emissions and international maritime, including international aviation and indirect CO2 ** Excluding international maritime (international traffic departing from the EU), including international aviation *** Emissions from Manufacturing and Construction, Industrial Processes and Product Use **** Emissions from Fuel Combustion and other Emissions from Agriculture
Main problems to fix (Policy Drivers) Transitioning global transport forms one of the hardest obstacles to overcome in an effort to decarbonise future energy systems GHG emissions reduction necessary According to the White Paper on Transport 211, the sector has to reduce 6 % of its CO₂ emissions by 25 (benchmark 199). Energy supply at risk Air quality and congested infrastructure Competitiveness of EU industry Oil accounts for 94% of transport fuels, causing an enormous EU import bill of up to one billion Euros a day. New and clean forms of mobility need to be established. Growth and jobs can be created by restoring world leadership of the EU transport industry.
Existing legislation Current regulations are specifically aimed at vehicles and fuels and do not form an integrated approach to reduce emissions across the transport sector following a WTW approach Fuel Quality Directive FQD 7a [29/3] Reduction of CO₂ intensity of fuels by 6% by 22 Renewable Energy Directive [29/28] 1% share of Renewable Energy Sources in motor fuels required by 22 Indirect Land Use Change Directive ILUC [215/1513] Directive on the Deployment of Alternative Fuels Infrastructure [214/94] 7% target (of energy consumption) on conventional biofuels counting towards the RED National frameworks to create the required infrastructure for alternative fuels Vehicle CO2 emissions Passenger cars: 95 g/km by 221, Light commercial vehicles: 147 g/km by 22
WTW GHG efficiencies by technology [g/km] If the Paris agreement to curb climate-warming emissions is to be taken seriously, no new combustion engine cars should be allowed on roads after 23.
Directive 214/94, Alternative fuels Croatia shall notify its National Policy Framework to the Commission by 18 November 216
Ukupan broj vozila Broj električnih vozila Broj utičnih mjesta Broj stupova i lokacija Croatia EV market BEV market (new passenger cars) - Croatia 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Citroen Renault Ostali Smart Mitsubishi BMW Nissan Volkswagen Izvor: Puni.hr 214 215 216 (I - IX) 2.. 45. 25 14 1.8. 1.6. 4. 35. 2 12 1.4. 3. 1 1.2. 25. 15 8 1.. 8. 2. 1 6 6. 4. 2. 15. 1. 5. 5 4 2 215. 22. 225. 23. Axis Title M1 - Osobna vozila uk. L - Motocikli uk. M2 - Autobus uk. M3 - Autobus uk. N1 - Teretna vozila uk. M1 - Osobna vozila el. L - Moto. el. M2 - Autobus el. M3 - Autobus el. N1 - Teretna vozila el. 215. 216. 217. 218. 219. 22. 221. 222. 223. 224. 225. 226. 227. 228. 229. 23. AC 3,7 kw AC 11 kw AC 22 kw DC 5 kw DC 1 kw DC 12/135 kw DC 2+ kw Broj punionica (stupova) Broj punionica (lokacija)
199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 t CO2 EUR t CO2 CO2 reduction Case Study Croatia 2.5. 2.. 1.5. 7.. 6.. 18.. 5.. 16.. 14.. 4.. 12.. 3.. 1.. 2.. 8.. Referentni scenarij 1.. 5. 6.. 1.. 4.. 2.. 6 % smanjenje u odnosu na 199 NIE Električna energija 235 Dizel Benzin24 UNP Prirodni plin 245 Referentni scenarij 25 235 24 245 EE iz OIE EE iz plina 25 EE iz ugljena EE iz OIE EE iz plina EE iz ugljena
MWh Can the Electricity System Cope with EVs? Case Study Croatia 3.. 2.5. 2.. 1.5. 1.. 5. Referentni scenarij Autobus strani Autobus međugradski Osobno plug in strano Osobno strano Osobno plug in međugradsko Osobno međugradsko Autobus gradski Moped i motocikl Osobno plug in gradsko Osobno gradsko Teretno N1 Referentni scenarij 22 225 23 235 24 245 25
EV market is growing fast
Battery cost reduction / Performance Improvements
Demand (MW) Demand (MW) Can the Electricity System Cope with EVs? 14 12 1 8 EV charging Total load Demand 6 4 2 14 12 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 22 23 24 Time EV charging Total load Demand 8 6 4 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 22 23 24
Key regulatory questions The rapid growth of EV charging in the next decade will challenge traditional paradigms of regulation and policy in the electricity sector How much of a role should utility regulators play in enabling EV integration or deployment? What tools do utility regulators have to encourage effective grid integration and optimal siting? What policy support is necessary to enable aggregation so that EVs can provide demand response and ancillary services? What factors will utility regulators have to consider when they evaluate the public interest in the context of EVs? Who should own, operate, and maintain charging stations, and what types of incentives should be provided to encourage EV integration and/or deployment through those roles? What are the processes regulators can use to ensure that regulation is adaptive in this dynamic environment?
We're now in the stage of autonomous-car development The Simplest Solution to Traffic is to Remove Humans Altogether Less traffic Zero Emissions Zero Fatalities There were 1.25 million road traffic deaths globally in 213 More than 9% of accidents are caused by the driver Autonomous EV
EV and AV will inevitably merge Trends and technologies redefine the art of the possible Electrification & intelligence crate new value Technology-focused early adopters want both innovations in the same car Ubiquitous connectivity Big data It is easier to implement autonomous features on EVs Social, local, mobile Cognitive computing Wireless charging integrates seamlessly with autonomy More efficient self-driving extends range, which is an EV pain point Augmented reality IOT Both technologies will mature at around the same time Both technologies will become mandated by governments Sharing economy Battery technology Improved device/com puter power
Rise of the machines If at first the idea is not absurd, then there s no hope for it
Thank you for your attention! Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar Savska cesta 163, Zagreb www.eihp.hr Bruno Židov, mag.ing.mech. univ.spec.oec. bzidov@eihp.hr One thing's for sure; the future of automotive will have many faces Presentation sources: - European Commission - European Environment Agency - International Energy Agency - Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar - Joint Research Centre - UNFCCC - WHO, Roland Berger, ACEA, RMI, ESB, TNO, TML, Oko-Institut, Lux Research, BCG, ABB, Bloomberg, Siemens, pwc, Fraunhofer
Statistical data 9.8 million vehicles were sold worldwide in 215 World new motor vehicle registrations 5,35% 21,27% 1. 9. New passenger cars - Croatia 44,98% 8. 7. 6. 5. 28,41% 4. 3. 2. 1. Europe America Asia Middle East/Africa 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 (I - IX)