Dr. Tom Turrentine, Director Dr. Gil Tal, PEV Use Patterns & Infrastructure Needs, China Dr. Ken Kurani, Consumer Studies Dahlia Garas, Program Director Dr. Alan Jenn, PEV Regulations & Incentive Structures in USA Dr. Scott Hardman, Europe PEV Markets Dr. Angela Sanguinetti, Energy Feedback
The best news is that battery cell and pack prices have been dropping & forecast prices for 22 & 225 dropping as well McKinsey US Department of Energy predicts $125 kwh (pack) by 222 Pack price Tesla says $19 kwh in 216 and $1 in 22 (cells) GM said it paid $145 per kwh cell price for 217 Bolt GM says Bolt will reach price parity in 222. Renault says they will reach price parity 22.
WORLD PEV MARKET
The number of PEVs in the world in 217 will likely go over 3 million (out of 1 billion vehicles) & over 1 million in sales (out of 9 million vehicles) 217 forecast 217 forecast
First quarter 217 global PEV sales by model Thousands 16 14 12 March YTD 1 8 6 4 2
1 st quarter (& March) 217 global PEV sales by manufacturer Thousands 25 2 March 1st Quarter 15 1 5
And as a result, car makers are now in competition to make second generation BEVs, 13-25 miles of range, Level 1-2 automation, AWD, high power charging 218 Tesla Model 3 238 miles range, $29,995 after tax credit 217 Volkswagen egolf 217 Chevrolet Bolt 217 BWM i3
And second generation PHEVs 2-4 miles range, larger, SUV/Crossover type vehicles, more power, AWD, & more automation 217 Toyota Prius Prime 217 Volkswagen Passat GTE 217 Chevrolet Volt 217 Audi A3 etron 217 Chrysler Pacifica
While the current PEV offerings emphasizes small sedans, the shift is to more SUV/Crossover
Thousands Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 Q1 217 Thousands Thousands Growth in most markets has followed increase in number of models for sale 6 5 4 3 2 1 USA 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Norway 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 USA Sales USA No. of Models Norway Sales Norway No. of Models Germany Netherlands 12 1 8 6 4 2 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 3 25 2 15 1 5 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Germany Sales Germany No. of Models Netherlands Sales Netherlands No. of Models
There was 37% growth worldwide in 216.
Ratio of BEVs to PHEVs varies, is shaped by policies, trending to PHEVs in several markets, with evmt problems. 212 214 216 212 214 216 212 214 216 212 214 216 214 216 212 214 216 212 214 216 212 214 216 212 214 216 212 214 216 212 214 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BEVs PHEVs
This slide is one year old, but still relevant. Small shiftsin PEV policy in Norway made more room for growth around PHEVs in one car & older households Source: Dr. Gil Tal, UC Davis
German car market responding to incentives & new PEV models First quarter 217
Sales growth in China continues, and always follows a pattern for strong end-of-year sales (Chinese New Year or tax deadlines?) 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Data Source: China Passenger Cars Association (CPCA) 212 213 214 215 216 217 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
THOUSANDS China is moving further towards BEVs - 8% China PEV Quarterly Sales 14 BEV PHEV 12 1 214 215 216 217 13.4% 8 27.8% 31.% 27.9% 6 4 2 86.6% 19.8% 45.9% 72.2% 37.4% 72.1% 69.% 4.5% 28.1% 8.2% 42.4% 27.1% 32.5% 71.9% 59.5% 54.1% 62.6% 35.4% 64.6% 72.9% 67.5% 57.6% 214-Q1 214-Q2 214-Q3 214-Q4 215-Q1 215-Q2 215-Q3 215-Q4 216-Q1 216-Q2 216-Q3 216-Q4 217-Q1
216 PEV Sales Top 1 Cities in China: BEVs only in Beijing & registration restrictions are important 216 PEV Sales BEV Manufacturer Beijing 63 BAIC PHEV Manufacturer Shanghai 41483 SAIC Qingdao 27198 Shenzhen 25131 BYD BYD 7 6 5 4 * Data Source: WAYS, 217 ww.way-s.cn * * BEV PHEV City with plate restriction Tianjin 21611 Taiyuan 17854 Guangzhou 1656 GAC Hangzhou 1533 Geely, Zotye Hefei 785 JAC Wuhu 7413 Chery 3 2 1 * * * *
PEV MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN USA & CALIFORNIA
US PEV sales were flat in 215, but pick up in 216, and jumped in Dec. 216, with steady growth 1 st Quarter 217 1 st quarter 217 Dec 216
US PEV Sales first four months 217: solid sales all around, could hit 2, this year if Dec strong.
PEVs are almost 1% of registrations; what % of VMT? Source: EVvolumes.com California is about 1-12% of total vehicle sales in USA, is almost 5% of total US PEV sales & fleet
Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q!-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4_14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17* California almost 5% in this quarter, Chart 8 states Title are at 1-2%, the rest of US at about.5% % GA Rest UT CO CT VT OR WA HI DC CA 5% 5 4.5 4% 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 California Oregon 3% 2% 1% Wash. DC Hawaii Washington 1.5 1 Vermont Connecticut.5 Colorado Georgia Utah Rest of USA
PHEV & BEV combined passed HEV 91% increase in 1 st quarter 217 over 1 st Quarter 216 - source CNCDA / 1 9 8 7 6 5 %.5.5 Percent of Total California LDV Market.4 1 1.2 BEV 1.3 1.6 PHEV HEV 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.7 1 st quarter 217 2.7% 2.1% 4 3 6.1 6.8 6.3 5.8 4.4 % 2 4.8 4.7 1 211 212 213 214 215 216 2 17 YTD
World electric vehicle capitals Analyzed at metro area level, 215. Source: Hall, D., Moultak, M., Lutsey, N. (217). Electric vehicle capitals of the world: Demonstrating the path to electric drive. http://www.theicct.org/ev-capitals-of-the-world 24