MTA Capital and Planning Review The Bond Buyer's 5th Annual Metro Finance Conference November 15, 2007
Evolution of the Capital Plan 1
Plan Evolution First five-year plan approved in 1982 to rescue system on verge of collapse Six successive plans totaling $76 billion 1980 s: Early work focused on service critical elements track, rolling stock, RR electrification 1990 s: Investment emphasis matured toward normal replacement Investments added to improve service delivery MetroCard for Transit, E-ZPass for Bridges and Tunnels, Rail and bus fleet expansion GCT and Penn Station revitalization started Service reliability significantly improves and ridership climbs 2
Plan Evolution 2000 s: Travel demand up significantly MTA now carries 7 million customers a day Investments in core system reliability enable substantial regional growth Work begins on the MTA s first new rail lines since the 1940 s LIRR Access into GCT First Phase of new Second Avenue Subway 3
Plan Evolution 1982 1991 1992 1999 2000 2004 2005-2009 System Im prove m e n t Normal 25% Replacement 5% State of Good Repair 70% Network Expan si on 1% System Improvement 17% Other 2% Normal Replacement 41% State of Good Repair 39% Network Expan si on 14% System Improvement 19% Other 2% Normal Replacement 38% State of Good Repair 27% Network Expan si on 21% System Improvement 12% Other 2% Normal Replacement 44% $15.4 billion $18.1 billion $21.1 billion $21.3 billion State of Good Repair needs decline Normal Replacement grows Network Expansion increases State of Good Repair 21% 4
Plan Evolution - Funding 1982 1991 1992 1999 2000 2004 2005-2009 MTA Generated Funds 13% Federal 32% MTA Generated Funds 19% Federal 30% MTA Generated Funds 29% Federal 31% MTA Generated Funds 5% Federal 31% Inside Sources Outside Subsidies MTA Bonds 29% State/City 26% MTA Bonds 42% State/City 26% MTA Bonds 38% State/City 2% MTA Bonds 45% State/City 19% $15.4 billion $18.1 billion $21.1 billion $21.3 billion 1980 s new MTA bonds, state/local funds, one-time funds 1992-2004 more reliance on debt 2005-2009 State Bond Act and City 7 Line funding Debt service becomes larger share of the operating budget 5
Current 2005-2009 2009 Capital Plan New York City Transit $11.2 52.8% Long Island Rail Road 2.2 9.5% Metro North Railroad 1.4 6.5% MTA Bus 0.1 0.4% Bridges and Tunnels 1.2 5.6% Subtotal Core Program $16.1 Security and Police 0.7 3.2% Network Expansion Projects Total MTA Capital Program ($ in billions) 4.6 2.2% $21.3 NYCT MNR MTA B&T LIRR MTAB Security & Police Network Expansion 6
Current Status $16 billion of work now underway all programs From 2003 through 2006, on average awarded $3 billion per year completed $3.2 billion a year For 2007, award over $4.1 billion for the core program over $3.0 billion for Second Avenue Subway, East Side Access, and 7 Line Extension 7
Core Capital Program 8
Capital Needs: 2005 2009 MTA Capital Plan Some investments that improve quality and reliability, such as railcars, buses, and stations, are more visible to the customer. Maintaining quality and reliability also requires investment in many components that are invisible to the customer. Visible Mass Transit 8,453 Railcars 4,930 Buses 733 Stations Roadway 7 Bridges 2 Tunnels 10 Toll plazas 197 Toll lanes Invisible 301 pump rooms 524 power substations 1,931 miles of track 3,259 switches 3,446 miles of cabling 197 ventilation plants 27 rail yards 52 car shops 14,850 signal blocks 9
2005-2009 2009 Core Program Highlights 959 Subway Cars and 299 Rail Cars 1,360 Buses 44 Subway Station and 35 Railroad Station Rehabilitations 468 miles of track renewal Power, Pumps and Signal Replacements Rehab/replace decks on 5 bridges 10
System Expansions and Lower Manhattan Projects 11
Where is the Region Heading? A broad consensus on growth (NYC, PANYNJ, RPA, NY & NJ metropolitan planning organizations) Population will continue to grow NYC s population will reach 9.5 million in 2030 (8.2 million today) The region s population will grow to 26.1 million in 2030 (22.2 million today) The population will continue to age 10.5% of the population will be 70+ in 2030 (8.8% in 2000) Immigration will continue to fuel growth Today, 12% of US population is foreign born, the highest since 1930 (Brookings Institution) 12
Where is the Region Heading? Past travel trends will continue and intensify Travel to the Manhattan CBD will grow Travel to non-manhattan CBD destinations will grow Intra-suburban travel will grow Longer trips More non-peak trips Less Monday-Friday travel 13
Possible Implications for MTA Network NYCT Full-build Second Avenue Subway Capacity issues on the Queens Boulevard corridor / West Side of Manhattan Potential need for additional bus depots Need for additional rail cars and buses Potential station impacts Metro-North Targeted fleet expansion and strategic track and signal improvements will address most capacity issues GCT, Park Avenue Viaduct, Mid-Harlem, Bronx New market opportunities LIRR Full implementation of ESA, (completion of Main Line Corridor; addition of new yards; system-wide track capacity improvements), will address most capacity issues on LIRR system Possible capacity issues on the Pt. Washington branch Reverse commute market opportunities to employment centers in Nassau and Suffolk counties 14
LIRR East Side Access Project: New 3.5 mile LIRR rail link to Grand Central Terminal New GCT Concourse and Station New Sunnyside Station in Queens Benefits: Direct LIRR link to East Side/GCT Saves riders up to 40 minutes/day Increases East River tunnel capacity by 50% Reduces congestion at Penn Station Project Cost: $6.3 B Status: Under Construction Scheduled Completion: 2013 15
Second Avenue Subway Project: New 8-mile subway line from 125 th Street to Lower Manhattan 16 new stations Phase One: 96 th Street 63 rd Street (connection to 63 rd St/Broadway line) Benefits: Reduces crowding on Lexington Ave Line Improves access to underserved areas of East Side Connects to existing system for service to Brooklyn Uses tunnel section built in 1970 s Phase I Project Cost: $4.1 B Status: Construction underway Scheduled Completion of Phase I: 2014 16
7 Line West Side Extension Project: One mile extension of Flushing Line (7 train) to the far West Side of Manhattan-new terminal at 34 th St/11 th Ave (Javits Center) Benefits: Provides Access to Javits Center Supports Planned Far West Side Development Status: Bids for construction under review for award in near future Project Cost: $2.2 B Scheduled Completion: 2013 17
Fulton Street Transit Center Project: A new Lower Manhattan transportation complex providing improved access to and connections between 12 subway lines for more than 275,000 daily commuters and Lower Manhattan residents and visitors, and providing links with PATH service and the WTC site. Benefits: Improves travel and convenience to key downtown destinations Makes transfers more efficient Supports economic renewal of Lower Manh Project Cost: $888 Million Status: Under Construction Planned Completion: 2009 18
1 Line South Ferry Terminal Project: Replace existing 5-car loop station to 21st century standards, with a full-length, two track, two track terminal. Provide pedestrian connection to the Whitehall Street RW station and the Staten Island Ferry. Staten Island Ferry Building Benefits: Accommodates full 10 car trains Provides better subway access New Entance (Staten Isl Ferry access) New Entrance (Peter Minuit Plaza New Entrance (Battery Park access) New Track Alignment Improves reliability, on time performance and travel time for over 6 million annual South Ferry customers Provides a new free subway connection at Whitehall St Status: Construction underway Project Cost: $489 M Planned Completion: 2008 19
Challenges 20
2008-2013 2013 Capital Plan Statute accelerates next capital program To incorporate investments to meet transit demand resulting from congestion pricing New plan to be submitted to State by March 31, 2008 and approved by July 2008 Will include ongoing core work based on inflationary growth and current expansions Both assumed in financial plan Will identify additional core, system improvements and system expansions 21
Other Funding Issues : Development of Real Estate Assets 22
Atlantic Yards Development Project: Lease of Air Rights over 9 acre LIRR Vanderbilt Rail Yard in Brooklyn (in vicinity of Flatbush and Atlantic Aves) for Sports Area, retail, commercial and residential uses under the auspices of ESDC (approx 8 M sq ft) Contribution to Capital Program: $100 M Additional Benefits: New state-of-the-art rail yard for LIRR Project Status: Temporary LIRR Yard under construction Projected Completion: 2016 23
West Side Yards Project: Planned development of the air space over the 26 acre LIRR East and West Rail Yards in Midtown Manhattan (30 th -33 rd Streets / 10 th 12 th Aves). Potential development of 12 M Sq Ft of new residential and commercial facilities. Project Status: RFP Issued; Developer proposals received Projected Developer Selection: First Quarter 2008 24
Other Funding Issues: Congestion Pricing 25
Congestion Pricing City Diversions Market Daily auto diversions from within NYC are estimated by the City to be 78,000 Trips originate in the outer boroughs and in the CBD MTA strategy New bus routes and enhancements to existing bus routes linked to Manhattan 1 line Midday service enhancements EF lines Expansion of Peak Period Enhanced bus links to subway lines serving Manhattan Enhancements to key subway lines in Manhattan and the Outer Boroughs C line Trains lengthened to 10 cars Ramp up prior to second Quarter 2009 Pilot Test start MTA will cooperatively monitor actual travel with NYCDOT and other agencies Subway Service Improvements 26
Congestion Pricing Suburban Diversions Market Daily diversions from Mid-Hudson for travel to core estimated at 2,500; from Long Island 3,500 Dispersed over the 5,000 square mile MTA commuter rail territory MTA Strategy Generally accommodated on the existing 1,300 daily trains serving the core Express bus service to the core where other capacity needed in coordination with NYS DOT MTA will cooperatively monitor actual travel with NYSDOT and other agencies 27
Congestion Pricing Impact on MTA Crossings Market MTA crossings serve approximately 170,000 Manhattan-bound trips Vehicles equipped with E-ZPass entering Manhattan via MTA crossings would have their congestion charges reduced by the amount of toll paid Toll offset would not apply to cash paying customers MTA Strategy Monitor facility volumes and delays Evaluate diversions from free crossings to B&T for E-ZPass rebate versus diversions of B&T cash customers to free crossings to avoid toll plus charge Initial bridge and tunnel shopping Impacts on E-ZPass Support Center 28
Congestion Pricing Capital Costs & Impacts Total estimated cost: $767 million, comprised of: 2008-2009 Capital Needs @ $283 million ($467 million - $184 million Federal UPA grant funding) Buses, bus depots and lay-up area Subway cars BRT service implementation Suburban buses and park+ride facilities 2010-2012 Capital Needs @ $163 million Bus lay-up area, BRT service, subway station enhancements, suburban park+ride facilities Post-2012 Capital Needs @ $320 million Construction of two bus depots 29
Congestion Pricing Operating Costs & Impacts The estimated net cost to ramp up the new services in the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 is $55.8 million (the gross cost is $59.9 million) Bus service and subway service, railcar and bus overhauls, BRT Estimated operating revenue: $4.1 million The estimated net cost of operating the new transit services and facilities each year for the 3 year pilot is $104.2 million (the gross cost is $153.1 million annually) Subway service, bus service and depots, BRT, suburban bus service, monitoring and data collection Estimated operating revenue: $48.9 million / year An annual view of both estimated capital and operating costs provides further insight 30
What Is Next? 31
What is Next? A new MTA Capital Plan submitted to the Legislature by March 31, 2008 A determination by the State and City of a Congestion Pricing Program and Resources by March 31, 2008 Ongoing contract awards to advance the core program and megaprojects 32
Questions 33