NURZAT MYRSALIEVA Distributed solar technologies: trends and scenarios in the Mediterranean Region
About RCREEE Independent regional inter-governmental organization 16 member states National focal point in every country In operation since 2008 Headquartered in Cairo, Egypt
Region Overview
Primary Energy Consumption 2011 2000 Natural Gas 50.0% Natural Gas 41.5% Coal 1.0% Hydro Electricity 2.1% Coal 0.7% Hydro Electricity 0.8% Oil 55.5% Oil 48.5% 6,825,000 boe/day 12,908,000 boe/day Source: OAPEC Annual Statistical Report (2005, 2012)
Renewable Energy Installed Capacity Non-Renewable 94.78% Renewable 5.22% 0,15% 0,79% 4,25% 0.02% Solar Wind Hydro Other
Energy Dependence All Arab 2011 2000 Dependence Independence Mauritania Djibouti Jordan Lebanon Morocco Tunisia Egypt Syria Yemen Libya Bahrain UAE Saudi Arabia Algeria Iraq Qatar Sudan Kuwait Oman -11-10 -9-8 -7-6 -5-4 -3-2 -1 0 1
Electricity Prices: Residential
Electricity Prices: Commercial
Energy Prices: Diesel (USD/litre)
Energy Subsidy Reforms 2014
Supporting Policies for Distributed Solar IPP Public Competitive Bidding Direct Proposal Submission Feed-in Tariffs Net Metering EPC Contracting At least 5 countries 2 countries 3 countries 4 countries More than 15 countries
Electricity Fuel Mix 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 Natural Gas Heavy Fuel Diesel 7 million 2.8 GW 4% 600 MW 95% Population Peak load in 2012 Peak Load Growth 2020 Solar Target Of Energy needs imported Cost of Electricity Produced 2011 2012 Total Cost per kwh ($) 0.18 0.21 Fuel Cost per kwh ($) 0.14 0.17 Direct Proposal Submission Round 1: 13 PPAs concluded at $0.17 per kwh for 210MW aggregate PV capacity Round 2: 47 companies have been prequalified to submit proposal for 200 MW aggregate PV capacity
FiT enacted on April 2014. Ministerial Decree guarantees the purchase of generated wind and PV electricity at preferential pricing for 20 years Full Load Hours Phase 1 (Year 1 to 5) 1-5 MW >5MW Phase 2 (Year 6-20) Phase 1 (Year 1 to 5) Public projects (EPC) 348 MW under construction developed by state-owned SKTM IPP Projects through FiT Program The Regulator CREG is already accepting applications for FiT Phase 2 (Year 6-20) 1275-1349 $0.20 $0.25 $0.16 $0.20 1350-1424 $0.20 $0.23 $0.16 $0.19 1425-1499 $0.20 $0.22 $0.16 $0.17 1500-1574 $0.20 $0.20 $0.16 $0.16 1575-1649 $0.20 $0.18 $0.16 $0.14 1650-1724 $0.20 $0.16 $0.16 $0.13 >1725 $0.20 $0.15 $0.16 $0.12 38 million 9.8 GW 13.6% 2800 MW 9 th Population Peak load in 2012 Peak Load Growth 2030 Solar PV Target Largest producer of NG
Feed-in Tariff Enacted in October, 2014 for Wind and PV. The tariff level for PV is from 84.8-102.5 Pt (USD 0.11-0.13) per kwh The tariff for wind - flat tariff of 68.4-82.08 Pt (USD 0.09-0.11) per kwh during the first five years IPP Public Competitive Bidding 250 MW wind project under tendering 80 million 27 GW 10.3% Population Peak load in 2012/13 Peak Load Growth Current Installed Capacity: Wind 610 MW PV 15 MW CSP 20 MW Projects under construction: More than 630 MW of projects under construction 3500 MW 2027 Solar Target
Utility-Scale Markets to Watch
Distributed Generation Markets
Source: Mustakbbal Clean Tech On-grid Residential and Houses of Worship PV Solar Rooftop National Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Palestine Action (NEEREA) Solar Initiative Aims offers to low-interest achieve a target loans of as 5 low as 0.6% with a MW repayment of solar period rooftops of as by long 2015 as 14 years for Net-metering 47% decentralized capital combined subsidy PV systems with grant and bank loan 15 MW of PV installed Green Mosque Initiative The Ministry of Islamic Affairs and Ministry of Energy signed an agreement to covert to solar energy 15 000 mosques Phase 1 will cover 1000 mosques
RE Self Consumption in Industrial and Commercial Sectors (On-Grid and Off-Grid) Net-metering and high retail electricity prices PV installation for selfconsumption already at grid parity, today more than 15 MW have been installed
Source: Azuri Solutions Off-grid Rural and Peri-Urban Electrification Rural Electrification Project Install 1.1 million individual solar rooftops in rural areas between 2012-2031
The Way Forward
Barriers to Scale Up of Investment Low awareness Few success stories Insufficient information Few financing options Weak local capacity At all levels of the existence of these commercially viable opportunities To demonstrate the potential of these opportunities About the risk profiles and potential benefits of these technologies That meet the three A s (Appropriate, accessible, affordable) To assess markets and create business models
ARAB FUTURE ENERGY INDEX 2015
Source: Lorentz Solar Pumps Solar PV Pumping Solar irrigation program 400 million dirham ( 35 million) 50% capex subsidy up to 75 000 Dirham ( 6 670) per project 3 000 PV systems per year Cumulative capacity of 15 MWp