Electric Vehicles prospects, policy tools and fields of action Dr. Peter de Haan EBP Switzerland, Head of the Resources, Energy + Climate Division Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lecturer Energy and Transport Futures
Table of contents 1. Availability of BEV and PHEV, near and mid-term 2. Production of lithium and battery cells 3. Will battery electric trucks, trains, ships, and planes impact on battery prices for BEV? 4. Will electric cars be shipped to China, not Chile? 5. Which possible role for hydrogen and fuel cell cars? 6. How to reduce the risks and realise the opportunities of electric cars 7. Are PHEV as good as BEV? 8. Balancing subsidies and fiscal income: What should governments do? 9. Best-practice policy tools to promote EV 10. Private multiplicators: Role of employers and property investors 11. Potential of smart charging and vehicle-to-grid 12. Adapting distribution grids to EV charging needs EBP 2
1. Availability of BEV and PHEV, near and mid-term (1/2) Up to 2015: Mostly small series <20k of selected models (Nissan Leaf: 100k) 2015 2018: Larger (100k) series; model selection still very restricted Global cumulative BEV+PHEV production until end 2017: 3 million cars BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle PHEV = Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle ICE = Internal Combusion Engine EV = Electric Vehicle = BEV + PHEV EBP 3
Energiedichte Batterie [Wh/kg] 1. Availability of BEV and PHEV, near and mid-term (2/2) 2019 2025: - All manufacturers stepping in - Most-sold car models on offer as ICE, PHEV, BEV - First car models as EV only 600 500 400 300 Unsicherheitsbereich Batterie Roadmap NEDO 2013 US DOE 2015 ISI Fraunhofer 2015 Deloitte 2016 Tesla S BMW i3 Renault ZOE VW e-golf Nissan Leaf Opel Ampera-e Energy density (Wh/kg) ENTWICKLUNG ENERGIEDICHTE >2025: Electrification of larger cars, SUV s, 4WD, pick-ups 200 100 Motor cycles: Often neglected, but highly inefficient and polluting > outphasing of motor cycles with combustion engines! 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Passenger cars: Current limited offer will strongly increase; most-sold car models also as BEV by 2025 EBP 4
2. Production of lithium and battery cells (1/2) Lithium cells expected to remain dominant. 2017 lithium supply = 95% of production New sources will be needed towards the mid-2020s. Lithium reserves are widely distributed. No physical constraints to 40x more EV in 2030 and 100x more EV in 2050 (compared to 2015) Short-term shortages possible, for market or political reasons; car manufacturers prefer long-term contracts Things change if average driving range would be >500 km (instead of 300 350km) Recycling: 2/3 of cathode makers in China recycling per type of cathode most likely in China EBP 5
2. Production of lithium and battery cells (2/2) New battery cell factories being built, financed by car manufacturers. Driver is climate policy in China and Europe. Cobalt: needed for cathode (10 20 kg/bev (mined as by-product to copper). BEV needed 48% of 2017 production, would need 130% by 2025 (substitutes: Nickel Cobalt Manganese cathodes, or Nickel Cobalt Aluminium) Graphite: Needed for anode Copper: BEV require 4x amount of ICE 2015 > 2025 Lithium production triples; short-term shortage in cell production?; Lithium recycling to be developed EBP 6
3. Battery electric ships, trains, planes, vans and trucks vs. EV Cheaper + better batteries > battery-electric trucks, trains, ships and short-range planes. Required driving range precisely known. Total Cost of Ownership very important. Commercial applications react stronger to «tipping point» in T.C.O. > will overtake electric cars & increase battery demand EBP 7
4. Will electric cars be shipped to China, not Chile? Global production 2017 80 million cars+vans (0.67 BEV, 0.42 PHEV) 1.34%=1.1 million EV (54% China, 30% Europe, 18% US, 5% Japan) +33%/a 2025 11 million EV Required (market with strong policies): China: new cars 2019 10% BEV+PHEV 2020 12% BEV+PHEV 2025 25%* t.b.c. Europe: new cars 2021 95 g CO2/km 2025 79 (NEDC) China + Europe: new vans 2020 147 g CO2/km 2025 122 (NEDC) 9.5 10.5 million EV EV quota and CO2 limits: Manufacturers will need global EV production until 2025 for admission to climate-driven markets EBP 8
5. Which possible role for hydrogen and fuel cell cars? Fuel cell cars: No large battery needed, but technically complex. Need H2 infrastructure. Multiple energy conversion > energy loss > low well-to-wheel efficiency. Fuel cells could help de-carbonising longrange trucks; high costs per t CO2 abated. (alternatives: biofuel, overlines, battery swap, train). Will be fuel cell car be next? Yes, IF you will have plenty of renewable energy and budget to fully de-carbonise road transport. The «window» for fuel cell cars narrows as batteries improve. Might be needed to de-carbonise long-range trucks EBP 9
6. Reduce the risks and realise the opportunities of electric cars opportunities risks Independence from fossil energy Integration of wind power and photovoltaics Air quality and local noise Grid-friendly charging schemes Decrease of environmental footprint motorized mobility covers all costs Small EV complement public transport Demand for critical mineral resources Use of non-renewable energy Shift of air pollution towards power plants Overload of distribution grid Increase of car ownership and km/cap Loss of fiscal income Long-range EV instead of public transport Electric mobility is NOT «good» per se. It should support existing transport, energy, and climate policies EBP 10
7. Are PHEV as good as BEV? There are good BEV and bad BEV. And there are good PHEV and bad PHEV. It depends on what the car is used for. BEV with high driving range (500+ km ) > large battery > more weight, larger ecological footprint a PHEV might be more ecological Data from Germany: - PHEV as many electric km/a as BEV - PHEV more likely to fully replace a conventional car Hyundai Ionic as ICE, PHEV, or BEV If used for the right purpose, PHEV combine ICE and BEV advantages and are competitive ecologically. From a regulatory perspective, PHEV should be regarded as full electric vehicle EBP 11
8. Balancing subsidies and fiscal income (1/2) Phase 1: Basic regulation, information, coordination. Activation of private multiplicators. Target «range anxiety» with planning, P+D, some subsidies. Phase 2: Mainstream EV: existing incentives for EV only (taxis using bus lanes; delivery vans in pedestrian zones, commuter costs: define EV as the standard) Today, government does not provide gasoline infrastructure. Why would it operate public charging infrastructure? (But charging for own vehicles required) Phase 1 Phase 2 Limited subsidies for smart charging infrastructure are effective, if conditional to the use of renewables EBP 12
8. Balancing subsidies and fiscal income (2/2) Different approaches: - «activist» countries: High EV market share at high cost (Norway, etc.) - «manufacturing countries»: EV subsidies, no penalties for ICE cars - «liberal» countries: - Focus on standards, coordination, information of multiplicators - Revenue-neutral tax changes - Subsidies for public charging points require renewable energy and gridfriendly charging. Pre-defined «exit». - EV will pay fuel tax substitute Ensuring revenue-neutrality of tax changes by simulation: - New car market with 2000+ car types - Use behavioral economics - Fleet turnover per car segment - Forecast annual tax revenue up to 2040 EV benefit from a relative price difference to ICE. Use revenue-neutral changes to the tax system EBP 13
9. Best-practice policy tools to promote EV Give some non-monetary incentive («something you cannot buy») to EV, like reserved parking somewhere Long-term goals for purchase bans on fossil cars & mid-term limited diesel car bans boost short-term EV purchases Include PHEV Standards for public charging points The plugs are not the problem; the authorization is. Request full interoperationability («roaming») from charging points operators for subsidies, public space or permissions Account for higher empty mass of vans Dedicated EV car label: allows to control special rights (e.g. parking) Differentiate between parking spaces and charging spaces Electric taxis: cost-saving (difficult for double shifts). Need central re-charging. Many «low hanging» fruits for regulators that accelerate EV market penetration EBP 14
10. Private multiplicators: Employers and property investors Property investors/managers: - All new/renovated parking space needs a charging infrastructure concept - Begin with the concept; then be slow in investing (fast technological progress) - Charging at every parking place vs. shared facilities with higher power - Smart charging a must - Use of stationary batteries likely New business models for power companies: one-stop solutions to transfer all investments and risks into monthly fees Employers: - Impact on mobility of whole families - Goal to reach carbon-free commuting? - Link «fringe benefits» to EV Companies: - If seeking permission for new parking facilities: Should propose pathway towards carbon-free commuting Property investors/managers and employers are key to a faster deployment of electric cars EBP 15
Mo. 00 Uhr Mo. 12 Uhr Di. 00 Uhr Di. 12 Uhr Mi. 00 Uhr Mi. 12 Uhr Do. 00 Uhr Do. 12 Uhr Fr. 00 Uhr Fr. 12 Uhr Sa. 00 Uhr Sa. 12 Uhr So. 00 Uhr So. 12 Uhr MW 11. Potential of smart-charging and vehicle-to-grid Smart charging: Can simply be done by the car maker, user, or power supplier. Vehicle-to-grid: Needs bidirectional charging device. Needs permission from car owner. Car location must be identified. Stationary batteries seem superior: Lower costs, clear ownership, always available. Energy systems of the future need: > slow charging, > cars always plugged in, > normally <80% state-of-charge More photovoltaics + wind power will lead to higher maximum loads. Without smart charging, EV further increase this maximum 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Stündliches Lastprofil Elektromobilität COM 2035 Smart charging delivers 80% of V2G benefits at zero or negative cost; low additional benefits of V2G EBP 16
12. Adapting distribution grids to EV charging needs An electric car may double annual power consumption of a household. Distribution grids may need reinforcement. Simulation in 5 steps: 1. Probability per household for 0/1/2 cars 2. Probability of each car to switch to BEV 3. Charging profiles per day/hour/car 4. Monte carlo simulation: 100 repetitions 5. Identify grid elements (transformators or links) overloaded most often; reinforce these first Simulation allows to adapt the distribution grid to EV charging needs, in annual steps, despite uncertainty EBP 17