World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation December 218 Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released December 11, 218. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments.
Highlights of USDA s 218/19 Supply and Demand Estimates 1.218/19 global wheat production to fall for first time in 5 years Global supplies estimate to fall to 113 MMT; down 1% from the 217/18 record Wheat production in Australia to fall to 17. MMT, 32% below the 5-year average U.S. wheat production estimated at 51.3 MMT, 8% above 217/18 2.Consumption forecast at a record 744 MMT, 4% above the 5-year average Australian feed wheat consumption expected to reach 5.5 MMT, 44% above the 5-year average U.S. domestic consumption to grow 7% year over year to 31.3 MMT 3.World wheat trade projected at 177 MMT, 2% above the 5-year average Australian exports to drop to 1.5 MMT, 4% below the 5-year average, and the lowest level since 27/8 Exports from Russia to fall 15% year over year to 36.5 MMT, still 34% above the 5-year average U.S. 218/19 exports to increase to 27.2 MMT, up 11% from 217/18, if realized Supply and Demand
Highlights of USDA s 218/19 Supply and Demand Estimates 4. World beginning stocks estimated at record 28 MMT, up 7% year over year Beginning stocks in Russia forecast at 11.9 MMT, 81% above the 5-year average, and the highest level since 211/12 U.S. beginning stocks will fall to an estimated 29.9 MMT, 7% below 217/18 levels 5. Global ending stocks projected at 268 MMT, 4% below the record 217/18 level, if realized Estimated Chinese ending stocks of 143 MMT account for 53% of global ending stocks Exporter ending stocks forecast at 59.3 MMT, down 24% year over year Ending stocks in importing countries to fall to 65.3 MMT, 1% below the 5-year average of 72.4 MMT 6. U.S. farm gate average price forecast 9% higher in 218/19 Projected average range: $5.5 to $5.25/bushel ($186-$193/MT)* *Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average Supply and Demand
763 733 World Production and Use 8 75 744 745 7 65 6 55 5 Production Use Supply and Demand
Supplies in Top Exporting Countries* 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 468 468 45 395 441 367 5 63 72 72 Beginning Stocks Production *Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan Supply and Demand
World Wheat Supply and Demand 16/17 17/18 18/19 MMT SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks 244 261 28 Production 757 763 733 Supply Total 11 124 113 TRADE: Exports/Imports 183 181 177 DEMAND Food & Seed 592 597 63 Feed & Residual 148 148 142 Use Total 74 744 745 ENDING STOCKS: 261 28 268 Supply and Demand
World Beginning Stocks 3 25 2 115 131 15 1 5 69 71 21 21 56 57 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Supply and Demand Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China
Percent Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio 4 35 34 35 38 36 3 25 26 2 15 1 5 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 *Ending stocks Supply and Demand
Percent 3. Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio w/o China 27 25. 25 24 25 23 24 2. 19.9 15. 1. 5.. 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 *Ending stocks Supply and Demand
World Ending Stocks 3 261 28 268 25 2 115 131 144 15 1 5 69 71 65 21 21 13 56 57 47 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Others China Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Supply and Demand
World Ending Stocks by Position (million metric tons) Exporters, 59.3 China, 144 Importers, 65.3 Supply and Demand
$US/MT Global Ending Stocks and Price 3 4 25 22 29 35 3 2 138 239 25 15 76 214 2 1 15 5 21 16 13 43 57 47 9/91 94/95 98/99 2/3 6/7 1/11 14/15 18/19 5 1 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW price Supply and Demand
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
Exportable Supplies in Top Exporting Countries 25 2 15 1 5 13 2 15 28 14 29 32 11 27 1 53 41 19 18 5 5 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Argentina Australia Canada EU-25 Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine U.S
45. Canada Situation 4. 35. 3. 25. 32.1 3. 31.8 2. 15. 2.2 22. 24. 1. 5.. 5.2 6.9 6.2 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
12. Canada Ending Stocks 1. 8. 6. 6.9 6.2 4. 5.1 5.2 5.1 2.. 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
45. Australia Situation 4. 35. 3. 25. 23.7 22.3 31.8 21.3 2. 22.6 17. 15. 1. 16.6 16.1 14. 5.. 1.5 4.7 4.6 4.7 3.9 5.7 5.7 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Australia Ending Stocks 1. 8. 8.2 6. 7.1 5.7 5.7 4. 4.6 4.7 2. 3.1 3.9 3.4. 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
Argentina Situation 2. 15.5 18.4 18.5 19.5 15. 13.9 11.3 13.8 14.2 1. 12.9 9.6 5.. 5.3 4.1 4.8 2.5 2.3.3.8.3 1. 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Argentina Ending Stocks 5.5 5. 4.5 4.8 4. 4.1 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 2.3 2.5 1..5. 1..7.8.3.3 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18.5
European Union Situation 2 18 16 14 12 1 145 157 16 145 8 151 138 6 4 2 32. 35.5 34.8 27.4 23.3 1.7 9.9 12.7 15.5 1.7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
EU-27 Ending Stocks 25 2 15 12.8 12.7 15.5 14.1 1 9.9 1.7 1.2 5 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
Russia Situation 1 9 85. 8 7 72.5 7. 6 59.1 61. 5 52.1 4 41.4 3 2 22.8 25.5 27.8 1 4.9 5.2 6.3 5.6 1.8 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
2 Russia Ending Stocks 15 13.7 11.9 1 1.8 5 6.3 5.6 5.4 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
Black Sea Region Situation 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 112 118 13 142 124 6 4 51.3 54.4 69.1 62.5 2 15.8 2.7 17. 21.2 2.9 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
8 Black Sea Exports 7 6 9. 8.5 5 4 3 2 1 8.1 9.8 18.6 5.5 11.3 22.8 7.6 7.4 17.4 18.1 25.5 27.8 17.8 41.4 16.5 36.5 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan
3 Black Sea Ending Stocks 25 2 23.3 2.7 21.2 2.9 15 17. 1 12.5 5 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
U.S. Situation 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 55.8 49.2 34.4 24.7 68.4 6.1 27.6 23.9 1 15.5 12.4 8.3 17.9 99/ 1/2 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic Use
U.S. Ending Stocks 35 3 32.1 29.9 25 26.6 26.5 2 2.2 2.5 15 16.1 1 5 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
Major World Wheat Importers (from all origins) 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 218/19 217/18
Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 5-year average 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5.
2.5 Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat Year-to-date 2. 1.5 1..5. 218/19 217/18 Source: USDA FAS export sales report December 11, 218.
Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 217/18 vs. 216/17 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. Mexico Japan Philippines Korea Nigeria Indonesia Taiwan China Colombia 217/18 216/17 Source: USDA FAS 217/18 Marketing Year Final export sales report May 31, 218.
2 World Wheat Imports 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 88/89 92/93 96/97 /1 4/5 8/9 12/13 16/17 "Other" China FSU EU-28 Trend in other importers denoted ( )
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
Million Acres U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class 7 6 5 4 3 2 11.4 2.1 4.2 6.6 1.3 12.1 2.3 4. 2. 4.1 5.6 5.9 1 26.5 23.8 23.2 HRW SRW White Durum HRS *Source: USDA Prospective Plantings Report, March 29, 218
U.S. Hard Red Winter 45 4 35 3 2.4 18. 25 2 15 1 1.1 8.7 5 16. 15.8 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Hard Red Spring 25 2 15 1.5 16. 1 5 6.2 6.4 8.2 5.2 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Soft Red Winter 2 15 7.9 1 7.8 5 2.5 3.5 5.9 5.6 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. White 12 1 8 7. 7.4 6 5.3 6. 4 2 2.9 2.4 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Durum 5 4 1.4 3 1.4 2 1.5 2.1 1.5.8 1. 1. 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Wheat Sales by Class (year-to-date) 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. HRW HRS White SRW Durum 218/19 217/18 Source: USDA FAS export sales report November 29, 218.
18 U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 HRW HRS SRW White Durum 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand HRW HRS SRW 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 MMT Beginning Stocks 16. 15.8 6.4 5.2 5.9 5.6 Production 2.4 18. 1.5 16. 7.9 7.8 Imports.2.1 2.4 2..1.2 Supply Total 36.6 33.9 19.2 23.1 13.9 13.6 Domestic Use 1.7 12.5 7.8 8. 5.9 5.7 Exports 1.1 9.8 6.2 8. 2.5 3.3 Use Total 2.8 22.3 14. 16.1 8.3 9. Ending Stocks 15.8 11.6 5.2 7.1 5.6 4.6 Stocks-to-Use 76% 52% 37% 44% 67% 51%
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand White Durum Total 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 MMT Beginning Stocks 2.9 2.4 1. 1. 32.1 29.9 Production 7. 7.4 1.5 2.1 47.4 51.3 Imports.2.2 1.4 1.4 4.3 3.8 Supply Total 1.1 9.9 3.9 4.4 83.8 85. Domestic Use 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.4 29.3 31.3 Exports 5.3 6..5.8 24.5 27.2 Use Total 7.7 8.6 2.9 3.2 53.9 58.5 Ending Stocks 2.4 1.3 1. 1.2 29.9 26.5 Stocks-to-Use 31% 16% 33% 38% 56% 45%
$/Metric Ton 4 U.S. FOB Gulf Prices 35 3 25 2 15 1 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 HRW ords HRS 14% SRW
$/Metric Ton U.S. FOB PNW Prices 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW
$/Metric Ton SRW and Soft White Prices 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 SW SRW
$/Metric Ton U.S. Gulf Basis Prices 2 15 1 5-5 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW
$/Metric Ton 25 U.S. PNW Basis Prices 2 15 1 5 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 HRS 14 HRW 12
Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
Production (MMT) and Harvested Area (mh) MT/hectares 75 U.S. Wheat Area and Production 3.5 3.6 65 3.4 55 45 2.9 3.1 47.3 3.2 3.2 3. 2.8 35 2.6 2.4 25 15.2 16. 2.2 15 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Harvested Area Production Yield 2.
Million Acres 11 U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison 1 9 8 7 78.9 7.3 94. 89.1 84.6 83.4 89.6 6 5 61.6 5.8 45.7 4 47.3 3 2 Wheat All Corn for Grain Soybeans *Source: USDA Acreage Report June 29, 218
Production and Use (MMT) 735 711 757 74 763 744 733 745 Trade (MMT) World Wheat Production, Use and Trade 8 75 173 183 181 177 19 18 17 7 16 65 15 14 6 13 55 12 11 5 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Production Use Trade 1
Production and Use (MMT) 973 97 178 161 176 186 11 1131 Trade (MMT) World Corn Production, Use and Trade 12 1 8 12 16 148 166 18 16 14 12 6 1 8 4 6 2 4 2 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Production Use Trade
Production and Use (MMT) 314 314 348 329 339 336 369 352 Trade (MMT) World Soybeans Production, Use and Trade 4 18 35 3 133 147 153 156 16 14 25 2 15 12 1 8 6 1 4 5 2 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Production Use Trade
$/metric ton Ocean Freight Rates for Grains 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 11/18/16 5/18/17 11/18/17 5/18/18 11/18/18 PNW to Japan Great Lakes to East Med Gulf to Middle East Gulf to West Africa
Summary Global production to fall for first time in 5 years Australian wheat production to fall to 17. MMT, 2% below 217/18 Wheat production in the U.S. to reach 51.3 MMT, 8% below the 5-year average Global ending stocks to decline to 268 MMT, still 11% above the 5-year average Ending stocks in the EU to fall to 11.2 MMT, 11% below the year prior, if realized U.S. ending stocks to decrease to 26.5 MMT, down 13% from 217/18, if realized World consumption expected to hit new record in 218/19; world trade to remain near record high Egyptian 218/19 imports estimated at 12.5 MMT, 1% above the 5-year average U.S. 218/19 exports to total 27.2 MMT, up 11% year over year, if realized