ISSUE # 677, 8 th April 2016 Pig Prices c/kg HSCW, Trim 1 Head on (average indicative prices). W/E 8/4/2016 45kg 60kg (Buyers) Male Female Barrows Male Female Barrows QLD 450 450 0 450 0 409 427 0 417-2 NSW 470 480 0 480 0 470 480 0 475 0 VIC 375 390 0 390 0 375 401 0 390 3 SA 375 390 0 390 0 375 390 0 386 0 WA 420 420 0 420 0 410 410 0 410 0 EASTERN SEABOARD* 470 480 0 480 0 411 428 0 421 0 NATIONAL 470 480 0 480 0 411 426 0 419-1 45kg 60kg (Sellers) Male Female Barrows Male Female Barrows QLD 445 450 450 450 0 427 437 442 435-2 NSW 430 0 0 430 0 425 0 0 425 0 VIC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WA 420 420 0 420 0 410 410 0 410 0 EASTERN SEABOARD* 445 450 450 450 0 426 437 442 430-1 NATIONAL 445 450 450 450 0 423 429 442 426-1 60.1kg 75kg (Buyers) Male Female Barrows Male Female Barrows QLD 400 400 0 400 0 378 383 359 381 1 NSW 395 405 0 405 0 380 396 0 387 0 VIC 385 432 0 432 1 379 409 370 394 1 SA 385 425 0 425 0 373 403 370 388 0 WA 360 370 0 370 0 357 361 0 359 0 EASTERN SEABOARD* 400 432 0 432 1 377 396 366 387 1 NATIONAL 400 432 0 432 1 375 392 366 383 0 60.1kg 75kg (Sellers) Male Female Barrows Male Female Barrows QLD 400 410 410 410 0 402 394 400 396 0 NSW 400 395 0 400 0 380 390 0 385 0 VIC 385 425 0 425 0 385 404 0 398 0 SA 400 425 405 425 20 392 406 400 400 5 WA 369 373 0 373 0 361 370 0 365 0 EASTERN SEABOARD* 400 425 410 425 0 390 398 400 394 1 NATIONAL 400 425 410 425 0 387 394 400 391 1
75.1kg 85kg (Buyers) Male Female Barrows Male Female Barrows QLD 400 400 0 400 0 393 390 359 391 1 NSW 395 405 0 405 0 382 401 0 390 0 VIC 385 425 0 425 0 358 379 370 368 0 SA 385 425 375 425 0 354 377 370 364 0 WA 0 0 0 0 0 331 330 0 331 0 EASTERN SEABOARD* 400 425 0 425 0 374 388 366 380 1 NATIONAL 400 425 375 425 0 369 381 366 374 0 75.1kg 85kg (Sellers) Male Female Barrows Male Female Barrows QLD 400 400 390 400 0 384 389 380 385 0 NSW 400 410 410 410 0 380 391 388 388 9 VIC 395 425 405 425 0 383 406 399 397 0 SA 385 425 405 425 20 382 393 392 391 2 WA 350 355 350 355 0 345 350 345 347 0 EASTERN SEABOARD* 400 425 410 425 0 382 393 388 389 3 NATIONAL 400 425 410 425 0 378 388 383 384 2 85.1kg and above (Buyers) Male Female Barrows Male Female Barrows QLD 385 390 0 390 0 365 368 349 366-2 NSW 390 400 0 400 0 373 391 0 381 0 VIC 365 375 0 375 0 360 370 360 362 0 SA 365 375 0 375 0 360 370 360 364 0 WA 0 0 0 0 0 325 309 0 323 0 EASTERN SEABOARD* 390 400 0 400 0 365 376 356 369-1 NATIONAL 390 400 0 400 0 360 368 356 363-1 85.1kg and above (Sellers) Male Female Barrows Male Female Barrows QLD 382 382 382 382 0 382 382 382 382 0 NSW 390 0 0 390 0 360 0 0 360 0 VIC 385 420 405 420 0 384 414 402 400 0 SA 350 380 0 380 0 350 380 0 365 0 WA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EASTERN SEABOARD* 390 420 405 420 0 368 389 389 374 0 NATIONAL 390 420 405 420 0 368 389 389 374 0 Backfatter Sows (Buyers) AVERAGE PRICE QLD 0 0 0 0 NSW 200 0 200 0 VIC 160 0 160 0 SA 160 0 160 0 WA 0 0 250 0 EASTERN SEABOARD* 200 0 176 0 NATIONAL 200 0 187 0 Backfatter Sows (Sellers) AVERAGE PRICE QLD 255 0 240 0 NSW 0 0 185 0 VIC 212 0 203 0 SA 0 0 0 0 WA 180 0 170 0 EASTERN SEABOARD* 255 0 211 0 NATIONAL 255 0 204 0 : Denotes change from previous week. *Eastern Seaboard: Includes QLD, NSW, VIC & SA states only. Page 2 of 6
SALEYARD PRICES (Buyers) Baconer price Porker Price Numbers Sold LW TW LW TW LW TW Toowoomba (QLD) 300 313 13 330 349 19 119 123 Ballarat (VIC) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dublin (SA) 404 386 (18) N/A N/A N/A 663 657 : Denotes change from previous week. N/A: Denotes no data provided. Pork Wholesale Prices (Sydney c/kg) (Source: APL Market Reporting TW: This Week LW: Last Week RAA: Rolling Annual ) Please note that there are now additional contributors to the pork data sample. As a result there may be fluctuations in the average prices as the new data gets added. Please note that the figures highlighted in red in the Carton Sales table are based on very limited sales due to current shortages. 8/4/2016 CARCASS BROKEN SALES Pork Bacon Legs Legs Ham Trim Saddles Loin Forequarters Bellies TW 540 540 508 538 780 800 483 1220 LW 540 540 485 515 810 800 465 1240 April 2016 Rolling Annual 597 583 478 524 752 754 445 1161 8/4/2016 CARTON SALES US Ribs Boneless Legs Fillets Boneless Middles 1 8 13mm fat Boneless Middles 2 13 20mm fat Boneless Shoulders Pork Neck TW 1561 550 1215 770 485 640 980 551 LW 1522 550 1280 690 485 640 980 552 April 2016 Rolling Annual 1444 519 1266 623 497 597 923 529 Trim 90CL Page 3 of 6
Weekly Grain Comment (Source: ProFarmer) To the point: Global stocks to remain at historically high levels. International markets remain buyers markets. Northern hemisphere winter crops remain on track to deliver good yields. International The USDA released their monthly report into global supply and demand during the week. There was little changes since the previous report meaning that global stocks for many commodities are set to remain at historically high levels. These heavy stock levels continue to weigh on global and local values. World Wheat Stocks to Use Mt % 240 50% End Stocks Mt 220 Stocks to use 45% 200 40% 180 35% 160 140 30% 120 25% 100 20% 80 15% 60 10% 40 20 5% 0 0% 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Some of the world s largest buyers of wheat tendering to purchase during the week and the values they secured tonnes at confirms it is still a buyer s market. While Australia secured a sale into South East Asia this week in an Iraqi tender Australian product was offered 12 $US/t over the US. For buyers of wheat in Australia this could indicate there isn t likely to be any real increase in export appetite in the near future. Global grain markets continue to follow the weather conditions and crop developments in the US, particularly in the HRW wheat growing areas. The US winter wheat crop condition remains above the 10 year average. % 75 US Winter Wheat Condition - Good to Excellent 65 55 10 year range 2016/17 10 yr ave 45 35 Dormancy 25 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Across the Atlantic, European crops are generally shaping up well after experiencing favourable weather conditions in recent months. Again this reinforces the bearish tone of current global markets. Whilst the development of the northern hemisphere winter cereal crops remain relatively begin for now if production uncertainty is to spark some volatility in this is not expected to occur until closer to when this crop is due to start being harvested in May/April. Page 4 of 6
Wheat Sth QLD/Nth NSW The market for wheat in North Eastern Australia remains sluggish with buyers largely not willing to chase the market up and sellers similarly not wanting to chase it down. With the amount of wheat unsold by growers remaining relatively high for this time of the year many buyers, including livestock producers, are more than happy to continue to buy on a hand to mouth basis, rather than build inventories. At the same time many growers who still have wheat left to sell are chasing not to engage the current market given the current values of wheat and current weather conditions, hoping that there may be some upside in the short to medium term. Sth NSW/VIC/SA In south eastern Australia there has been a decrease in market liquidity as grower s turn attention to this season planting and away from marketing. However, the lf performance of track market is providing no real incentive for sellers to enter the market with some support for values emerging in delivered markets at specific locations. Many buyers, including feed mills, are well covered in the short to medium term and as a result are not exactly chasing the market up. Barley Sth QLD/Nth NSW There have been some increases in buyer appetite for barley over the past week from feed lot operators, including those in the darling downs area. This resulted in a small but more than welcome uptick for values in and around Brisbane/Darling downs area but elsewhere the market continued to grind lower. With feed barley continue to trade at lower relative values to wheat it continues to be a preference of livestock producers, ahead of other feed grains. Sth NSW/VIC/SA Further south the ongoing lack of liquidity is providing some support for values as there is not much trading that can drag the market lower. There appears to be ample F1 barley around to meet buyer appetite, despite the earlier premiums by some in the market that this might not be the case this year. This support for F1 barley is prompting a bit of a change in buyer appetite form F1 to the F2 and F3 grades, for use as stock feed etc over the past few weeks, with the biggest hotspots occurring in ex-farm markets. Despite this current values mean that many sellers are reluctant participants. Sorghum The sorghum harvest in Northern Australia continues, including in the key growing area of the Liverpool plains where the yields and quality were better than excepted. However with export appetite remaining well below the levels of previous years prices paid to growers remain at the lower end of historical values with sellers reaming reluctant. The only real grower selling is coming from growers who are selling sorghum when there is nowhere to store it. While sorghum is now trading at a $40-50/t discount to ASW and delivered feed grain markets there seems to be no real increase in buyer appetite or preferences for increased use of sorghum as livestock feed etc Page 5 of 6
Weekly Grain Table (Source: ProFarmer) Profarmer - Table for EE Delivered Darling Downs Deliverd Brisbane Delivered Northern NSW LW TW LW TW LW TW LW TW Feed Wheat 253 253 0 271 270-1 256 253-3 257 252-5 Feed Barley 229 238 9 235 240 5 221 221 0 224 218-6 Sorghum 211 202-9 220 213-7 206 201-5 223 220-3 Soy meal 539 556 17 539 556 17 539 556 17 539 556 17 Canola meal 421 241-180 426 426 0 361 361 0 361 361 0 Cotton seed 390 390 0 370 370 0 360 360 0 350 350 0 LW TW LW TW LW TW LW TW Feed Wheat 241 241 0 261 255-6 262 262 0 264 257-7 Feed Barley 207 200-7 217 216-1 232 232 0 222 185-37 Triticale 220 220 0 225 225 0 259 259 0 263 263 0 Soy meal 574 591 17 569 586 17 569 586 17 569 586 17 Canola meal 395 391-4 391 391 0 400 396-4 398 405 7 Delivered Geelong Delivered Adelaide Delivered Fremantle LW TW LW TW LW TW Feed Wheat 275 275 0 265 265 0 276 277 1 Feed Barley 236 238 2 205 205 0 218 218 0 Soy meal 539 556 17 584 601 17 NA NA - Canola meal 383 383 0 428 428 0 420 240-180 Feed Oats 270 270 0 260 260 0 300 280-20 Delivered Newcastle Delivered Southern NSW Delivered Port Kembla Delivered Goulburn Valley Delivered Central VIC DD = Darling Downs Bris = Brisbane Nth NSW = Northern New South Wales New = Newcastle Sth NSW = Southern New South Wales Pt K = Port Kembla GV Goulburn Valley Central Vic = Central Victoria Geel = Geelong Adel = Adelaide Freo = Fremantle. LW = Last week TW = This week = Change N/Q = No Quote Due to the volatility of the grain market, caution must be used when valuing data. Disclaimer: The information contained in this report cannot be forwarded to, or used by, any third party without prior written consent from Australian Pork Limited (APL). This information has been collected and processed by APL and has not been prepared for any particular individual or entity. The information contained in the report may not be an accurate reflection of market prices or of changes in market prices. The report does not constitute a recommendation by, or opinion of, APL. While APL has no reason to believe that the information contained in this report is inaccurate, APL is unable to guarantee the accuracy of the information at any point in time and, subject to any terms implied by law which cannot be excluded, accepts no responsibility for loss suffered as a result of any party s reliance on the accuracy or currency of the content of this report. The information contained in the report should not be relied upon for any purpose, including as a substitute for professional advice. Nothing within the report constitutes an express or implied warranty, or representation, with respect to any future matter or as to the value of or demand for any good. Page 6 of 6