The Iran Steel and Tube & Pipe Industry in 2015 Dr. James Ley Principal Consultant Metal Bulletin Research 15 th September 2015 Kish Island, Iran
IRANIAN IRON AND STEEL CONFRENCE Contents 15 th September 2015 Kish Island, Iran MBR who we are Iranian steel industry Iranian energy steel markets: Linepipe OCTG
IRANIAN IRON AND STEEL CONFRENCE Contents 15 th September 2015 Kish Island, Iran MBR who we are Iranian steel industry Iranian energy steel markets: Linepipe OCTG
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MBR A Strategic Market Outlook for the Middle East Steel Industry out to 2020 This new expanded 2015 edition of the study has never been more in demand and relevant as it is today. We have included brand new features to expand our coverage of the key topical issues that matter for the region today. A Strategic Market Outlook for the Middle East Steel Industry out to 2020 gives unique access to the following: - By country market analysis including: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, United Arab Emirates and Yemen - Product analysis including raw materials, long and flat steel products: Ferrous Scrap, Iron Ore, DRI/HBI, Billets, Slabs, HR Coil, CR Coil, HDG, Tinplate, Rebars, Sections, and Wire Rods Source: MBR
IRANIAN IRON AND STEEL CONFRENCE Contents 15 th September 2015 Kish Island, Iran MBR who we are Iranian steel industry Iranian energy steel markets: Linepipe OCTG
IRANIAN STEEL INDUSTRY Iranian crude steel output has risen between 2005 and 2014, but its share of the total Middle East market has declined. Long products account for ~ 56% of local steelmaking capacity in 2014 Crude steel output vs Iranian share of total Middle East output Iranian steel capacity by product type Mt 25 68% 20 CAGR = 7.6% 19.6Mt 66% 64% Rods 2% Sections 15% HRC 25% 15 10 62% 60% Rebar 39% CRC 10% 5 58% 56% Other flat 3% Plate 6% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Crude steel output (WSA) Crude steel output (MBR) % Share of middle east (LHS) 54% Total crude steel capacity = 26.7Mt Source: MBR
IRANIAN STEEL INDUSTRY Consumption has increased quicker domestically for long products compared to flats. Exports for flats began rising again in 2014 14 Iranian flat products supply/demand balance (Mt) 12 Iranian long products supply/demand balance (Mt) 12 CAGR = 2.8% 10 CAGR = 4.7% 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2-2 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-2 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Output Exports Imports Apparent consumption Output Exports Imports Apparent consumption Source: MBR
IRANIAN STEEL INDUSTRY MBR is forecasting crude steel consumption to reach ~ 22Mt in 2020, plate consumption is expected to rise in the next couple of years as Indian imports arrive Mt Forecast Iranian crude steel output vs consumption M Forecast Iranian plate steel output vs consumption (Mt) 23 86 2 22 21 20 84 82 19 80 18 78 17 16 15 76 74 1 14 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Population (RHS) Total finished steel AC Crude steel output 72 Major deal undertaken between India and Iran, allowing at least 2Mt of wide plate to be sent from India to Iran in the next couple of years 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 CAGR 2014-2020 Crude steel output 4.8% Local plate output Plate apparent consumption Crude steel consumption 2.2% Source: MBR
IRANIAN IRON AND STEEL CONFRENCE Contents 15 th September 2015 Kish Island, Iran MBR who we are Iranian steel industry Iranian energy steel markets: Linepipe OCTG
IRANIAN LINEPIPE MARKETS Iran is no longer the no.1 large-diameter market in the Middle East, slipping behind Saudi with a 11% share of the regional market in 2014 compared to a 40% share in 2009 Apparent consumption of large-diameter linepipe in Iran (kt) 1400 500 Large-diameter linepipe imports by country (kt) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 CAGR = -23.3% 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total imports Apparent consumption Share of Middle East market 2009 Source: MBR and ISSB Production Share of Middle East market 2014 41% 11% 50 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 India Germany France South Korea China Other
IRANIAN LINEPIPE MARKET OUTLOOK Iran s demand for large-diameter linepipe is forecast to surge, driving demand for both plate and pipe consumption 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Forecast Iranian large-diameter linepipe demand to 2020 (Mt) Target to increase gas production 202 BCM in 2014 to 400 BCM in 2020 Further expansion of domestic pipeline network to ensure 98% of population by 2020 have access to gas Major planned pipelines: Export pipeline to Iraq thought to be a priority (IGAT-6) IGAT 7: extension to south eastern province as well as Pakistan IGAT 9: South Pars to Europe IGAT 11: pipeline from south to north of the country Oil pipelines in Caspian? - Khazar Exporation and Production Company (KEPCO) 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: MBR
IRANIAN LINEPIPE MARKETS The IGAT 6,7,9 and 11 pipelines on their own could add 3Mt of steel pipeline (56 OD) demand in Iran before 2020 Source: MBR
IRANIAN IRON AND STEEL CONFRENCE Contents 15 th September 2015 Kish Island, Iran MBR who we are Iranian steel industry Iranian energy steel markets: Linepipe OCTG
IRANIAN OCTG MARKETS In downstream drilling, Iran s OCTG demand has slowly declined between 2009 and 2014 Iranian OCTG consumption from 2009-2014 (kt) Iranian OCTG imports by country from 2009-2014 (kt) 300 250 250 200 Major Western mills left the market 200 150 100 CAGR = -3.46% 150 100 50 50 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Production Imports Apparent consumption 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China Indonesia Kazakhstan Argentina France Germany Japan Others Source: MBR
IRANIAN OCTG MARKETS The continued drilling of Iran s offshore gas fields is expected to stimulate oil country tubular goods (OCTG) demand South Pars continues to drive Iranian OCTG demand Source: MBR
IRANIAN OCTG MARKET OUTLOOK Iran s OCTG demand could hit close to 500ktpy by 2020 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Forecast Iranian OCTG demand 2015-2020 (kt) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Prior to sanctions Iran was producing over 4Mbpd of oil, and the target was to reach 5Mbpd Production fell to ~ 3Mbpd It is likely to take some time for the OCTG industry to return even with the lifting of sanctions It is estimated it will take at least 6 months from sanctions being lifted for funds to be released, banking relationships restart, etc Furthermore, things will only really start moving when the foreign oil companies start investing in Iran, and this is not expected until 2017 Nevertheless, drilling activity will increase and, subsequently OCTG demand estimated to be around: 300 ktpy in the short term increasing to 500 ktpy in the medium to long term Source: MBR
IRANIAN IRON AND STEEL CONFERENCE Thank you for your time 15 th September 2015 Kish Island, Iran Dr James Ley Metal Bulletin Research Tel: +44 207 779 8521 Fax: +44 207 827 6430 Email: james.ley@metalbulletinresearch.com Web: www.metalbulletinresearch.com