SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST

Transcription

1 SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST Using evolution theory to examine the impact of regulation on innovation in Australian and Canadian trucking ROB DI CRISTOFORO, JONATHAN REGEHR, ANTHONY GERMANCHEV, GARRETH REMPEL. Presenters: Anthony Germanchev, Jon Regehr.

2 In the beginning Darwin published his theory with compelling evidence for evolution in his 1859 book On the Origin of Species He established that all species of life have descended over time from common ancestors, and proposed the scientific theory that this branching pattern of evolution resulted from a process that he called natural selection.

3 Theory of evolution preservation of favourable variations, and rejection of injurious variations surrounded by barriers, into which new and better adapted forms could not enter man can only act on external and visible characters; nature cares nothing for appearance

4 The evolution analogy Species = truck Evolution via mutation = truck sales and modifications Habitat = road network/environment

5 Difficulties with the theory longer heavier trucks are intentionally promoted in biology, evolutionary theory is never intentionally promoted; rather, evolution occurs as the result of accident: a mutation occurs in gene(s) that favours an organism adaptation to an environmental condition Unlike organisms, trucks do not evolve by their own design, trucks do not carry genes, and trucks do not engage in sexual reproduction.

6 Truck habitat Size and weight regulations Limitations of infrastructure bridges, pavements, road space Maintaining safety standards stability, maneuverability Needs of the community public perception, road users, environment Performing the freight task freight type, distance, loading

7 The Effect of Regulatory Habitat Performance Based Standards, established 2008 Innovative regulatory scheme for innovative vehicles Focuses on what the truck can do, not what it looks like

8 A truck and trailer evolution Case study 1 High productivity vehicles created by a PBS regulatory scheme Previously restricted by broad brush regulations A vehicle configuration suffering from inconsistent state regulations

9 PBS truck and axle dog t 17.0t 9.0t 17.0t 17.0t 22.5t 17.0t 22.5t 17.0t 22.5t GCM: 49.5t 57.5t 63.0t 68.5t Efficiency gain = new payload/old payload = t/33.0 t/ t t = ~20% ~10% increase Building on 50 years of road and transport research

10 Truck and trailer Truck and 3-axle dog trailer

11 Truck and trailer Truck and 5-axle dog trailer

12 Truck and trailer Truck and 6-axle dog trailer

13 Truck and trailer

14 Australia s high mass vehicle suited to its environment Load: Mineral sands Length: 37.5 m Gross Combination Mass: 130 tonnes

15 Evolution of a fleet mix Case Study 2 Three Canadian Prairie Region truck size and weight policies: : Western Canadian Highway Strengthening Program : RTAC Memorandum of Understanding present: Special-permitting of longer combination vehicles (LCVs)

16 WCHSP 1988 RTAC MoU Percent of Articulated Trucks in Fleet Mix Fleet mix on Trans Canada Highway (west of Winnipeg) 100% % Year

17 Evolution of a network Case Study c Oct c. 31 Oct c Triples Rockies Turnpikes 120 Average Daily Volume Estimate Long Multiple Trailer Truck Network 100 All Long Trucks Permitted Only Rockies Permitted Year

18 Lessons learned Changes in the regulatory habitat induce evolution within a species, fleet, and population Conversely, a lack of change inhibits evolution BUT, there are other forces involved AND, not all evolution is desirable Regulations that induce evolution can improve productivity BUT their implications (e.g., on safety, infrastructure, operations) must be understood and managed

19 Lessons learned Evolution in trucking eventually converges toward a solution under constant habitat BUT this convergence takes time AND predicting this time is of high interest The extent of a network (habitat) influences the population of the species BUT networks changes happen for non-trucking purposes AND effective networks need not be overly dense nor provide continuous temporal access

20 Final remarks Uncertainty remains so changes are necessarily risky, but uncertainty is not an argument in action Research and pilot programs Ongoing, real-time monitoring and performance evaluation are now possible Understanding the past helps us anticipate the future

21

22 Percent of Articulated Trucks in Fleet Mix Fleet mix on Mid-Continent Corridor (south of Wpg) WCHSP RTAC MoU % % Year

23 Rise and fall of species Total road freight moved by vehicle type Freight share % Source: Adapted from Dept. of Transport (Victoria) 5