Freight Strategy. Recommendations to Improve Traffic Safety and Congestion. Bob Taft Governor. Gordon Proctor

Transcription

1 Northern Ohio Freight Strategy Recommendations to Improve Traffic Safety and Congestion Bob Taft Governor Gordon Proctor Ohio Department of Transportation Kenneth L. Morckel Ohio Department of Public Safety

2 NORTHERN OHIO FREIGHT STRATEGY INTRODUCTION Ohio s transportation network is critical to the state s economy, and no where is this more true than in northern Ohio, where billions of dollars of freight move into, out of, and through the region. In response to truck traffic and safety concerns in the region, Governor Taft asked the Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT), the Ohio Turnpike Commission (OTC), and the Ohio State Highway Patrol (OSHP) to investigate strategies to move more trucks on the Ohio Turnpike. I. ANALYSIS SECTION Problem Statement The northern Ohio road network is critical to passenger movement, freight movement, and the economic prosperity of the state. The Interstate corridor carried 22.5 billion ton-miles of truck freight in 1998 the most of any corridor in the state. Highlighting Ohio s importance as a crossroads, estimates are that up to 60 percent of that freight is interstate commerce passing through the state. The Ohio Turnpike is an integral part of this network. Created in 1949 to be the longest limitedaccess highway in Ohio at the time, the Turnpike runs 241 miles from the Indiana border in Williams County to the state s eastern border with Pennsylvania. OTC s financing structure makes the Turnpike different from any road in Ohio. Tolls provide a dedicated revenue stream to repay bond debt. In turn, the debt pays for capital improvements to OTC s facilities. The premium paid by the Turnpike s customers results in premium service: the Turnpike has good capacity, well-apportioned service plazas, and a very high level of maintenance. While the tolls provide superior funding and maintenance, they have also dissuaded a significant portion of truck traffic from using the Turnpike, seeking instead to use free state routes parallel to the Turnpike. Many two-lane roads in northern Ohio carry more than percent truck traffic, leading to congestion and high accident rates. In other words, Turnpike tolls create an imbalance in the northern Ohio truck market (see map on next page). Some community leaders, frustrated by truck congestion and high accident rates, have requested that ODOT finance and build bypass routes and other improvements to relieve truck traffic. However, a comprehensive program to relieve traffic in the many communities affected by truck diversion would cost hundreds of millions of dollars, and decades to plan and build. As an alternative to such an expensive and long-range road building strategy, ODOT and the OTC investigated incentives to persuade more trucks to use the Turnpike. The analysis in this report indicates incentives such as a toll reduction while not without public cost provide the lowest cost strategy to solving the truck traffic imbalance on the northern Ohio road network. Page 1

3 NORTHERN OHIO FREIGHT STRATEGY Non-Interstate Routes With More Than 2,500 Trucks Per Day and Highest Two-Lane Crash Rate Locations CONNEAUT 90 ASHTABULA 20 GENEVA FULTON 24 LUCAS LAKE PORT CLINTON 20 BRYAN 6 HENRY 24 FREMONT WOOD SANDUSKY 23 BELLEVUE 20 OBERLIN LORAIN 224 RITTMAN VAN WERT 224 DELPHOS 83 SHELBY RICHLAND UPPER SANDUSKY ALLEN ASHLAND BUCYRUS WYANDOT MERCER HARDINKENTON CELINA 29 ST. MARYS WAPAKONETA 42 LOGAN UNION DARKE URBANA MIAMI 49 NEW CARLISLE CADIZ GUERNSEY 250 ST. CLAIRSVILLE NEWARK 315 COLUMBUS MUSKINGUM CAMBRIDGE HEATH ZANESVILLE BRIDGEPORTWHEELING BELMONT 285 LONDON 104 MADISON MONTGOMERY PREBLE HARRISON COSHOCTON LICKING 70 CLARK 4 DAYTON EATON STEUBENVILLE FRANKLIN SPRINGFIELD TROY JEFFERSON UHRICHSVILLE CHAMPAIGN PIQUA GREENVILLE 7 CARROLLTON NEW PHILADELPHIA COSHOCTON MOUNT VERNON MARYSVILLE EAST LIVERPOOL TUSCARAWAS DELAWARE SIDNEY DELAWARE 31 BELLEFONTAINE SHELBY DOVER 93 KNOX CARROLL 62 MORROW CANTON 83 MILLERSBURG EAST PALESTINE HOLMES 76 SALEM COLUMBIANA MARION 422 MAHONING STARKALLIANCE 62 AUGLAIZE MARION 6 WOOSTER ORRVILLE MANSFIELD GALION YOUNGSTOWN 224 WAYNE ASHLAND ADA 75 LIMA SUMMIT CRAWFORD SHARON 5 AKRON 42MEDINA 15 PUTNAM VAN WERT WARREN MEDINA WILLARD CORTLAND 422 PORTAGE TIFFIN FINDLAY HURON 12 HANCOCK PAULDING NORWALK SENECA FOSTORIA CUYAHOGA ELYRIA 90 CLYDE 193 TRUMBULL 4 2 HURON ERIE DEFIANCE 4 LORAIN BOWLING GREEN 24 6 ASHTABULA 322 GEAUGA 6 SANDUSKY 90 NAPOLEON DEFIANCE 271 CLEVELAND OTTAWA WAUSEON WILLIAMS 11 TOLEDO 35 GREENE NOBLE WOODSFIELD FAIRFIELD XENIA CALDWELL NEW LEXINGTON LANCASTER MORGAN MONROE 77 MCCONNELSVILLE PERRY CIRCLEVILLE MIDDLETOWN 42 HAMILTON BUTLER OXFORD 22 LEBANON PICKAWAY WASHINGTON C.H. FAYETTE HOCKING MARIETTA WILMINGTON 75 CLINTON ATHENS CHILLICOTHE ROSS HARRISON VINTON 50 HAMILTON MCARTHUR 50 CINCINNATI PIKE WAVERLY 73 MT. ORAB ATHENS 50 HILLSBORO HIGHLAND GREENFIELD WARREN 50 WASHINGTON LOGAN PARKERSBURG 33 WELLSTON MEIGS 32 JACKSON BELPRE 50 POMEROY CLERMONT 160 BROWN 32 7 JACKSON 23 Miles GEORGETOWN WEST UNION ADAMS SCIOTO GALLIPOLIS GALLIA PORTSMOUTH LAWRENCE 93 7 IRONTON 52 ASHLAND HUNTINGTON Routes With Truck ADT >2,500 High Crash Rate Segments Ohio Turnpike Interstate Routes U.S. Routes State Routes Urban Area Page 2

4 Ohio Turnpike Commission Overview The OTC was created by the Ohio General Assembly in 1949 to issue bonds for construction of an interstate highway across northern Ohio, with bonds to be paid solely by toll revenue. In 1990, the OTC s enabling legislation was modified to allow the Turnpike to remain a toll road after all outstanding bonds were paid. The Turnpike consists of two eastbound and two westbound travel lanes and three lanes in some areas of reinforced Portland cement concrete, which has been resurfaced with asphalt concrete. A grass median separates the directional lanes, with a 50-inch concrete barrier separating the threelane sections. There are no crossings at-grade, and traffic enters and exits the Turnpike via interchanges with toll plazas. There are eight pairs of service plazas (rest areas, with fuel, food and truck parking) spaced approximately miles apart. Eight maintenance facilities are spaced in a similar manner. A special unit of the OSHP (District 10) polices the Turnpike. The OSHP district has its headquarters in the OTC administration building, has two additional posts in OTC maintenance facilities, and has one free-standing post. The OTC reimburses the OSHP for all costs of the patrol district, which totals more than $12 million annually. Tolls account for 90 percent of the OTC s revenue. In the mid-1990s, the OTC issued new bonds and phased in a toll increase of 82 percent, to fund a capital program that included the construction of a third lane and other physical improvements. Tolls are charged based on a vehicle s weight and distance traveled. Vehicles are weighed at their approach to toll plazas. Tolls rise with weight, increasing precipitously in the Class 9 range more than,000 pounds, which is illegal on the state highway system without a permit. The complete toll schedule is shown in the table below. Class Gross Weight Description Toll per mile 2003 Toll Revenue* 1 <= 7000 lbs. Automobiles $ $ RV s, autos with trailers $ $ Commercial trucks $ $ Commercial trucks $ $ Commercial trucks $ $ Commercial trucks $ $ Commercial trucks $ $ Commercial trucks $ $ Commercial trucks $ 0.03 $ Triple trailers $ $ Long double trailers $ $ *Toll Revenue in Millions Page 3

5 Toll rates differ greatly between urban and rural freeway facilities; the Ohio Turnpike is best viewed as a rural highway corridor, serving long-distance, interstate traffic. Regionally, a peer group comparison for the Ohio Turnpike includes toll roads in Indiana, New York, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Each State s truck toll rate is shown in the table on the right. Toll Facility Truck Toll Rate per Mile* Indiana Turnpike $ New York Thruway $ Ohio Turnpike (Class 8) $ Pennsylvania Turnpike $ West Virginia Turnpike $ * Truck toll as shown is equivalent to Ohio Turnpike Class 8 (65,001,000 pound) toll rate. Some toll roads charge by number of axles rather than weight. Comparative Analysis: Turnpike Compared to Other Ohio Freeways Truck Volume The Ohio Turnpike, variously designated I-, I-90, and I-76, is one of five Interstate freeways that span Ohio. Of these five major interstate freeways, only I-77 in southern Ohio has less truck traffic than the Turnpike. While the Turnpike averages about 10,000 trucks per day, it is common for interstates under the jurisdiction of ODOT to average 15,000 trucks per day. The heaviest truck traffic is on I-75 in Toledo, which averages more than 25,000 trucks per day. The chart below plots Turnpike truck traffic with the other long-distance interstates in Ohio. Page 4

6 Congestion Compared with other freeways in Ohio (rural and urban interstates, and interstate look-alike facilities), the Ohio Turnpike generally does not experience traffic congestion. A simple measure of congestion is to calculate the ratio of traffic volume to the capacity (V/C) of the road; any V/C ratio greater than 0.90 is considered congested. The highest V/C ratio on the Turnpike is between 0.65 and 0.70, and most of the Turnpike s mileage is much less congested than that. In contrast, it is common for other Ohio freeways to experience congested conditions on a routine basis. The chart below shows the centerline mileage of congestion on Ohio s freeways, with the Ohio Turnpike shown in black. Average Congestion Centerline Miles V/C Ratio ODOT Priority System ODOT Rural Interstates Ohio Turnpike Safety Freeway facilities are very safe because of their high capacity, separation of directional lanes, wide shoulders, large radii curvature, and limited access points. All Ohio freeways are very similar in their crash rates, and the Ohio Turnpike is no exception. The table on the next page shows crash rates for all classes of roads in Ohio. As the table on page 6 shows, rural freeways like the I-70, I-71 and the Ohio Turnpike are inherently safer than other roads. Of relevance to truck diversion in northern Ohio is the functional class of Other Rural Principal Arterial roads, examples of which are U.S. 20 and U.S. 20A in Fulton County; SR 2 in Ottawa County, and U.S. 20 in Wood County. The statewide crash rate on rural principle arterial roads is more than twice the crash rate of rural interstate freeways like the Turnpike; the fatal crash rate is more than four times as high. Page 5

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8 Unfortunately, the crash rates on two-lane roads around the Turnpike are far worse. After a fatal crash on SR 2 in Ottawa County this year, ODOT analyzed the crash rates and fatal crash rates for similar routes statewide ( similar, meaning two-lane, principal arterial roads, with average daily traffic between 5,000 and 15,000 ADT). In sorting the worst 25 road segments in terms of fatal crash rate, 10 are located on diversion routes parallel to the Turnpike. The worst section, with 18 fatalities over a 10-year period, was U.S. 20 in Fulton County. Its rate of fatal accidents is nearly four times the average for similar routes statewide. The table of two lane crash rates is shown below. In summary, the Ohio Turnpike, like all rural freeways, is the safest type of road in Ohio. Two-lane arterial roads, many of which are used as diversion routes by trucks, are inherently less safe. The volume of trucks on these two-lane roads in northern Ohio leads to elevated crash and fatal crash rates. Moving more traffic on the Turnpike instead of principal arterial roads will improve the overall safety of the northern Ohio road network. Page 7

9 Pavement The Ohio Turnpike is a very well-maintained road, and Turnpike managers perform preventive maintenance and resurfacing with good frequency. ODOT and the Turnpike benchmarked the Turnpike s pavement conditions, to verify the quality of the Turnpike s pavement and its suitability to accommodate more truck traffic. ODOT uses a Pavement Condition Rating (PCR) procedure to assess and record pavement conditions. The PCR provides an index that reflects the composite effects of varying distress types, severity, and extent in a pavement structure. Pavement is visually inspected for different types of distress (such as cracking); PCR is calculated by deducting the sum of a pavement s distresses from 100. A PCR of 100 represents a perfect pavement with no observable distresses. To the right is a PCR table describing the relative condition of pavement within the range of PCR values. ODOT pavement engineers inspected the Ohio Turnpike in August As expected, the Turnpike s pavement is in excellent condition, with very few deductions for structural defects. Only one section of Turnpike pavement was rated as low as Fair, and it was scheduled for resurfacing. Ninety-five percent of the Turnpike s pavement is rated Good or Very Good. The Turnpike s pavement condition is compared with ODOT s Priority System (freeways, and multi-lane roads) in the graphic below. The Turnpike has been maintained in excellent condition throughout its history. An evaluation of its PCR found consistently high conditions and very few structural weaknesses. With these very good conditions, the Turnpike s pavement structure can accommodate an increased volume of truck traffic without any adverse impact on pavement conditions or maintenance expenses. Page 8

10 Bridges The OTC has maintained its bridges in very good condition. A program replaced 145 pairs of mainline bridges from 1983 through Cross road and ramp deck replacements were begun in 19 and have replaced 137 bridges to date. Latex bridge deck overlays were performed on 85 bridge decks from The third lane construction program began rehabilitating or replacing bridges in 1996, with 41 bridges addressed through The table below compares the deficiencies of Turnpike bridges to the deficiencies of ODOT s bridge inventory: Bridge paint is one notable deficiency, but is explained by the third lane program, which restricted such work due to maintenance of traffic issues. The OTC s 2004 construction program began to address this deficiency, with 12 painting projects programmed. Overweight Vehicles In surveys, some truck drivers indicated that high tolls especially in the Class 8 and 9 ranges, contributed to avoidance of the Turnpike. Class 8 trucks pay a toll of $0.17 per mile, while Class 9 trucks (,000 90,000 pounds) pay a toll of $0. per mile. At this level of disparity, the potential exists to nearly double the cost of a trip across the Turnpike. If drivers suspect that their truck is overweight, or perceive the scales to be inaccurate, they have a strong incentive to divert to parallel roads. ODOT Weigh-in-Motion Stations To gauge the level of weight-related diversion, ODOT first reviewed data from permanent weigh stations, located on routes suspected to be part of Turnpike diversions, as well as data from a control data set (see tables on next page). The analysis showed an intriguing outlier, in Wood County U.S. 20. There, from the middle of the year to December, a consistently high percentage of trucks were significantly overweight from 18.1 percent to 26.8 percent. This portion of U.S. 20 is often identified by local officials as a primary diversion route for Turnpike trucks. While many of the suspected Turnpike diversion routes had significantly heavy trucks (12 percent 17 percent), it was difficult to determine a trend in comparison to the control data set. The control set, consisting of freeway facilities, varied widely in their share of overweight trucks, from a low of 1.43 percent to a high of percent. Page 9

11 % of Overweight Trucks Data Stations on Suspected Turnpike Diversion Routes Ohio State Highway Patrol Enforcement Effort Responding to the data from ODOT and the OTC, the OSHP conducted a five-week weight enforcement program from October through November A team with portable scales worked areas of SR 49, U.S. 6 and U.S. 20 in Williams County. Of 33 trucks weighed, were overweight. The greatest amount was a 90,0 pound overload of steel coils, originating in Chicago and destined for Toledo. Trucks were also checked for origin-destination data. Of 31 trucks exiting or entering SR 49 at the Turnpike, at least 19 (61 percent) had an origin or destination which made the Turnpike a faster route for their trip. The other origin-destinations were in northwest Ohio, making it difficult to conclude the Turnpike was a better trip route. Based on the five-week weight enforcement trial, the OSHP made the following observations and conclusions: A number of overweight trucks avoid the Turnpike altogether, to avoid scales. Informal communication of the trucking community relayed the location of enforcement activity, forcing the scale team to change locations every few days, if not more often. A significant amount of overweight trucks were carrying grain, since it was peak harvest season. Rather than exclusively pursuing such grain trucks, the OSHP expanded its enforcement to capture a broader sampling of the types of overweight trucks. If grain were targeted in harvest season, the percent of overweight trucks would have been even greater. Heavy trucks were found entering the Turnpike at SR 49 to go west on the Indiana Turnpike, having crossed Ohio via a different route. Their reasons for avoiding the Ohio Turnpike, in rank order, were 1. Opinion that tolls are too high. 2. Their company forbids their use of the Turnpike, usually because of cost. Page 10

12 3. Scales at Westgate (Gate 2) are inaccurate, and operators travel U.S. 20 to enter at Gate 13, in hopes of being in lower weight class. 4. To save at least some money on tolls, by entering the Turnpike in the Toledo area. Speed Limit Review Interstate highways were generally designed for traffic speeds of 75 mph. In the face of oil shortages in the 1970s, the U.S. Congress imposed a speed limit of 55 mph to conserve fuel. In 1987, with improved oil supplies and drivers compliance with the lower speed limit eroding, Congress reversed the speed restrictions and returned substantial authority to set speed limits back to the states. While most states changed their interstate highway speed limits from 55 mph to 65 mph, some policy makers were concerned about safety especially so with higher speed limits for trucks. One policy response, adopted by Ohio and several other states, was to impose a lower speed limit for trucks (a differential speed limit, or DSL). Proponents of DSL asserted safety is preserved by providing a greater stopping distance for trucks, which because of their weight cannot stop as quickly as passenger vehicles. Other policy makers assert that a uniform speed limit (USL) is inherently safer, reducing passing maneuvers in the stream of freeway traffic. They cite an increased likelihood of certain types of crashes, especially rear end collisions, which would increase the rate of fatal crashes involving trucks. Some proponents of USL also note the economic benefits of higher truck speed limits. After Congress eased restrictions on maximum speed limits, a majority of the states (especially western states) adopted the USL for trucks and passenger vehicles. While a large cohort of states adopted some variety of a DSL, support for the DSL eroded over time and many of the states in that cohort modified their laws to enforce the same speed limit for trucks. It should be noted that higher speed limits those over 55 mph for cars and trucks are often limited to rural interstate roads where traffic density is minimal. In urban areas, with greater traffic volume and recurring congestion, a 55 mph speed limit for cars and trucks is most often maintained. The change in speed limits, the different approaches to USL and DSL, and the change by some states of a DSL to a USL, provided a large dataset to evaluate safety impacts. Indeed, there are numerous academic studies on speed limit safety impacts and a summary of the literature review on this issue is contained in Appendix A. Generally speaking, the studies could not find a statistically significant impact on safety between states with a DSL or USL. Rear end crashes involving trucks striking cars tended to increase after a change to USL, but the actual rate of this type of crash was muted by increases in traffic volume. In all states, traffic increased over time, which added a confounding variable to the analysis. Also, there existed variation in crash locations within a state over time, making it more difficult to generalize the cause and effect of speed policy changes. Finally, differing levels of speed enforcement, between states, within states, and over time, made it problematic to determine the actual impact of a change in speed laws. Ohio has been a staunch advocate of DSL, and there has been little organized opposition to the policy. ODOT has not advocated a change in speed policy for its interstate system. The OTC, however, is in a more unique position to test the USL policy. It is an entirely rural interstate with no areas of recurrent slowdowns. Moreover, it has less overall traffic, less truck traffic, and lower levels of Page 11

13 congestion than any other rural freeway corridor in Ohio, with the exception of I-77. As a discrete facility with unique characteristics, the Turnpike is an ideal candidate for a USL, and a change in policy can be readily monitored and evaluated for safety impacts. Traffic Modeling and Toll Sensitivity Estimations about toll sensitivity the effect of changes in truck toll rates on truck traffic volumes were made using ODOT s Statewide Travel Demand Forecasting Model. A traffic model is computer representation of the actual transportation system, which is replicated by creating a model of the transportation systems links (roads) and nodes (road intersections or interchanges). Real-world traffic is represented as flowing through the model s links and nodes. The state is divided into a number of small zones, from which traffic flows from one zone to others; estimates of these flows are made by extensive origin-destination surveys. This data is supplemented by studies and data that detail population, employment, travel time, speed, capacity, traffic counts, other physical roadway characteristics, and other personal travel behavior statistics. This data is then loaded on the computer representation of the transportation system, which assigns trips through links and nodes based on the highest speed (or lowest travel time) route(s). The output of the model is compared to the actual traffic counts observed by ODOT, and the model is calibrated until it replicates those counts within standards established by ODOT and FHWA. Regression analysis then establishes the relationship between the calibrated traffic data and population, employment and land use. This relationship allows forecasts of these variables to lead to forecasts of travel demand. The model is thus used for analyzing existing and future conditions, with outputs available in database, spreadsheet and graphic formats. The strength of a travel demand forecasting model is in evaluating the impact of travel demand growth, and the alternatives to accommodate such growth. Some of the most important scenarios are: Estimates of travel growth over time; Estimating the impact of travel growth on the transportation system over time, e.g., in location or intensity; Evaluating which alternatives will solve an existing or future transportation problem at the lowest public cost; Evaluating the impact of a proposed transportation improvement on the existing transportation network e.g., a new interchange; and And, significant to this study, the statewide traffic model was used to estimate the effect of increased truck speed limits, and lower truck tolls, on the Ohio Turnpike and various parallel state routes. The statewide traffic model uses a variety of databases, collected by different studies over time, and updated and validated to ensure accuracy. A partial overview of these databases includes the following: Road network, geo-located, from existing ODOT databases. This includes characteristics such as number of lanes, shoulder widths, and traffic signals. Traffic counts from existing ODOT databases, supplemented as available from metropolitan planning agencies. Roadside origin-destination surveys collected at 700 locations in Ohio in the late 1990s. Page 12

14 Origin-destination surveys conducted by the state s 16 metropolitan planning organizations, which provides even greater detail of travel characteristics for urban areas. Population and employment databases derived from U.S. Census surveys and unemployment insurance databases maintained by the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services. Speed studies, which compare posted speed limit to average actual observed speed, for cars and trucks. As alluded to above, geo-location is an important element of the model. Among other benefits, the geo-locating abilities of the model allows for the creation of zones for traffic analysis. The current version of the model divides the state into 1,214 zones for traffic analysis, with each zone carrying attributes such as census data. Individual attributes, such as population or employment data, can be updated periodically. Outside of Ohio, large zones are created to reflect interstate traffic origin-destinations. Use of the Statewide Travel Demand Model for Estimation of Toll Effects Several studies and observations of Turnpike traffic impacts formed the hypothesis for further study using the statewide model. Origin-destination surveys performed as part of the Bellevue bypass study revealed an inordinate volume of truck traffic diverting from the Turnpike. Initial runs of the interim statewide travel demand model, as well as a separate interstate freight study, showed the Turnpike carried far fewer trucks than would otherwise be expected if truck traffic followed the fastest route available. Conversely, a similar hypothesis applied to U.S. 24 traffic in northwest Ohio revealed that the Turnpike tolls had no impact on truck traffic in that corridor. From these observations, it was clear that Turnpike tolls did have an impact on parts of the transportation network, and the statewide model was used to assess the geographic extent of this impact. The model determines the routes traffic will use by minimizing cost. In this model, cost was defined in terms of congested travel time and tolls. Separate cost functions were derived for each class of vehicles (cars and trucks). These functions convert the components of cost to a common unit (minutes). This is accomplished using values of time for each class derived from national studies. For this study: $0.20/minute for cars and $0.42/minute for trucks. Because the model uses a simplified structure of two vehicle classes as opposed to the 11 classes that tolls are set for, weighted average toll rates were calculated from OTC toll/revenue data. Congested travel time is obtained in the model using volume/delay functions derived from the national Highway Capacity Manual which indicates the travel speed a vehicle is likely to experience on a given facility type under given traffic conditions. With toll effects represented in this manner, initial model runs were made under the current toll rate and no-toll scenario. The results of these runs were checked against two detailed traffic studies U.S. 24 in northwest Ohio and the Bellevue bypass study to verify the results. The model revealed a toll sensitivity that was about half of that predicted in the U.S. 24 and Bellevue studies. This was deemed acceptable, as it provided a more conservative estimate of toll sensitivity. With an acceptable model in place, other scenarios were run, reflecting 10 percent, 20 percent and 50 percent toll reductions, as well as a no toll scenario and an elimination of tolls on certain geographic segments of the road. This produced summary data of car and truck traffic volume on the northern Ohio road network, as well as summary statistics for total vehicle miles of travel on the network. Results were output in both tabular and graphic form. Page 13

15 After creation of the Turnpike toll sensitivity model in 2003, proposals surfaced to increase the Turnpike speed limit for trucks to 65 mph. Such a speed incentive would decrease travel time; thus an increased truck speed limit could be input to the sensitivity model to estimate the impact of the change. This speed limit analysis was performed, and the results combined with the toll reduction analysis done previously. Note that actual truck speeds were assumed for the model: at current 55 mph truck speed limit, average freeway truck speed is 62 mph, while at 65 mph, it is assumed average truck speed will be 66 mph a 4 mph difference. This information was derived from a statewide travel time study conducted using probe vehicles as well as a statewide system of permanent automatic traffic recorders which measure speed and volume by vehicle class. Findings The preliminary results show traffic factors currently, and under seven different toll assumptions: reductions of 10 percent, 20 percent, 50 percent, and 100 percent; and 100 percent reductions on just the western third, middle third, or eastern third of the Turnpike. The output identifies traffic characteristics for each roadway in the network: Car Volume; Truck Volume; and Level of Service a measure of congestion, rated A through F. Car and Truck Volume The model reflected the economic impact of decreasing truck tolls shifting more truck traffic to the Ohio Turnpike. As one example, the table on the next page shows the effect of truck toll reductions for traffic in the middle of the state (approximately speaking, at the border of Erie and Sandusky counties, shown in the shaded area of the map below). The data shows the current truck volume on the Turnpike and other roads in the area, compared with truck volume under various toll reduction strategies A Mid-Northern Page 14

16 Looking closer at the shaded rows of the table above reveals magnitude and geographic extent of toll reductions on truck traffic. On this portion of the Turnpike, a 50 percent toll reduction increases truck volume by about percent. As expected, this traffic is drawn from the adjacent roads such as SR 2, U.S. 6, with dramatic truck volume decreases of 67 percent and 89 percent, respectively. The model shows a dampened impact farther from the Turnpike, with truck traffic on U.S. only moderately impacted by toll changes. Data sets for seven northern Ohio locations are contained in Appendix B starting on page 32. Congestion Increasing truck traffic on the Turnpike can of course increase congestion on that facility, while decreasing truck traffic and congestion on parallel roads. ODOT s analysis found that a 50 percent toll reduction would at worst reduce the Turnpike s Level of Service from B to C in the middle part of the state. This is still a very good Level of Service, and many of Ohio s rural freeways operate at that level or worse. To restate, the Ohio Turnpike can carry thousands more trucks per day, with little if any noticeable impact on traffic congestion. Toll Sensitivity Curves In addition to the data summaries above, the summary statistics of vehicle miles of travel (VMT) under the various scenarios were plotted to provide toll sensitivity curves. The VMT assumptions are the key input to predict the revenue impact of various toll (and speed limit increase) options Turnpike truck VMT, multiplied by toll rate, provides toll revenue by vehicle class. The plot of toll sensitivity curves is shown in the graphic on the next page. Summary The major findings and uses of the model were: Turnpike tolls have a significant impact on U.S. 20 and U.S. 20A in northwest Ohio; U.S. 20 and SR 2 from Toledo to Lorain County; and I-76 and U.S. 422 in the eastern part of the state. The Page 15

17 model showed that U.S. 24 was unaffected by Turnpike tolls, confirming the findings of specific origin-destination in the corridor. Tolls have no impact on U.S., U.S. 24, or I-75 truck volumes. A freight strategy for northwest Ohio must include improvements to these facilities in order to comprehensively address safety and congestion issues in the region. Running 10 percent, 20 percent, 50 percent, and 100 percent toll reduction scenarios allowed for the creation of toll sensitivity curves. These curves were used to make traffic volume and financial impact evaluations for various toll incentive levels. Increasing the speed limit for trucks will have a significant impact on Turnpike truck traffic attracting up to 20 percent more truck trips to the facility, off of parallel roads. The model s findings were strengthened by empirical evidence of Turnpike toll impacts: over the past 10 years, truck traffic volume on certain parallel routes rose precipitously, while the Turnpike truck traffic remained flat and even declined in some years. While the statewide travel model appears strong in its accuracy, use of the model requires the following primary cautions: The statewide model is not as predictive as a detailed, corridor-level toll and traffic study. While the statewide model assigns truck trips to specific road links thus providing a traffic count results for such specific road links should not be viewed literally. At a micro-level, it is much more difficult to predict exactly which links will be used by increased truck traffic. The major findings of the modeling adhere to more of an order-of-magnitude measure, allowing decision makers to identify the major routes which are significantly impacted and guide policy accordingly. Econometric modeling assumes rational consumer behavior. While it is rational for commercial trucks to take the lowest cost route, there may be independent agents with an irrational aversion to tolls, route choice, or some other factors. Page 16

18 II. POLICY ALTERNATIVES AND RECOMMENDATIONS Confronted with the policy problem of trucks diverting from the Turnpike, with resultant safety and congestion issues, ODOT, the OTC, the OSHP, and the governor s office investigated a number of incentives to move more truck traffic to the Turnpike. The agencies attempted to be exhaustive in their investigation of alternatives, but the standard of evaluation was to identify the most effective truck incentive(s), at the lowest (present-value) cost to the public. This last factor was important, as there are numerous ways to fund some programs, such as a toll rebate or reduction program. Increase Truck Speed Limit Ohio is one of only 12 states that retain differential speed limits for cars and trucks; of these, Ohio is one of only five states with a truck speed limit of 55 mph. Truck speed limits for other states range from 60 mph to 75 mph. Increasing truck operating speeds should lower truck operating costs and provide an incentive for trucks to use the Turnpike. ODOT s traffic model predicts a 20 percent increase in truck volume from the policy change to a 65 mph truck speed limit. ODOT and OTC literature reviews did not reveal any safety impacts on the Turnpike by such a policy change, although the OSHP did discern some patterns of increased crash severity in studies of states with higher speed limits. OSHP also notes stopping distances clearly will increase with higher speeds and crash severity may rise. Because there are not absolute data regarding the effect of the speed limit, the number and severity of crashes will be monitored closely over the next 12 months to evaluate what changes in crash patterns actually occur. Increase Truck Weight Enforcement Efforts on Routes Parallel to the Turnpike Overweight trucks are a legitimate public policy concern, but even more so in northern Ohio, where truck tolls seem to cause more diversion of heavy trucks to the parallel routes. The OSHP has specific staff assigned to truck regulation and weight enforcement, but there are only 10 teams with portable scales, statewide. A meaningful, long-term weight enforcement effort cannot be accomplished by diverting existing Patrol scale teams to northern Ohio. New troopers and scale team personnel, in concert with aerial enforcement, are necessary to institute a sustainable force on parallel road system. The OSHP recommends an additional 25 Patrol personnel are needed to bolster a northern Ohio enforcement effort. This would provide approximately one trooper per 200-road miles, per shift, for the roads of concern in northern Ohio. Initial enforcement could be accomplished via staff overtime, but the long-term cost for staffing is approximately $2.5 million annually. This type of heightened weight enforcement, over a broad geographic range and long timeframe, is unprecedented in Ohio, so the impact of enforcement on the trucking community in terms of truck diversion is uncertain. There is no way to model the effect of enforcement on truck travel patterns but intuitively all parties involved agreed that increased enforcement should have a positive effect. In addition, infrastructure conditions should benefit if overweight trucks are eliminated from the parallel roads. Page 17

19 Implement Electronic Toll Collection for Trucks OTC conducted an extensive analysis of the cost and effectiveness of moving to electronic toll collection as one means to make the Turnpike more attractive to truckers. Electronic toll collection has been successful on some turnpikes because it can save travelers time because they can drive through toll gates and have their toll fees measured electronically and billed to a monthly account. However, the OTC analysis indicates turnpikes where this method has been successful have been in urban areas with high volumes of commuter traffic. Such conditions are not common on the Ohio Turnpike, which is mainly a long-distance through-trip corridor. A recent study found only 12 percent of current Turnpike customers have an electronic toll tag. The electronic collection system requires dedicated toll gates, an electronic infrastructure and a monthly bill system for thousands of customers. With relatively light commuter traffic, and a small percentage of current trucks with electronic toll tags, the Ohio Turnpike concluded electronic toll collection would have little effect on attracting trucks to the Turnpike but it would have substantial cost. Therefore, electronic toll collection was not adopted as a strategy at this time. Ban Trucks from Parallel State Routes Members of the public and the OTC staff inquired as to whether ODOT could ban trucks from parallel routes. The state of New Jersey instituted a partial truck ban in the late 1990s in response to truck diversion on parallel routes after a toll increase on the New Jersey Turnpike. ODOT investigated the New Jersey action and found it not to provide an immediate strategy that could be used with certainty in Ohio. First, the truck ban has been overturned in federal court. A national trucking group sued New Jersey in federal court and won. The state, however, has appealed and the judge did not issue an injunction against the truck ban while the appeal is pending. New Jersey is the only state with such a ban. Traditionally, the Federal Highway Administration and the states have assumed that a truck ban on federal routes would not be legal because it would be viewed as states interference with constitutionally protected interstate commerce. The New Jersey court decision appears to validate that position, but admittedly that verdict is under appeal. Second the routes and locations in New Jersey subject to the ban all were in urbanized areas and none were in rural, non-urbanized areas. The routes in Ohio of most concern tend to be in rural areas outside of municipal boundaries. The New Jersey truck ban focused on the incompatibility of large volumes of trucks in the urban areas and did not focus on truck volumes in rural areas. There appears to be no precedent nationally for banning trucks in rural areas. Third, the New Jersey ban applies only to out-of-state through trips. It effectively reduced trucks on the affected routes by about 25 percent. Although significant, 75 percent of the trucks remain on the routes. In Ohio s case, a 25 percent reduction would be significant but still would leave thousands of trucks on the parallel two-lane routes. ODOT will continue to examine the legal arguments surrounding the New Jersey truck ban to determine if the court allowed any possibility for application of such a ban here in Ohio. However, a truck ban is not recommended in this study as a solution because it may not be legal, and therefore not an effective long-term solution. Page 18

20 Expand Group Volume Discount for Trucks The Turnpike currently offers a 15 percent rebate for charge account customers that incur more than $1,000 in tolls monthly. A certain number of trucking companies do take advantage of this discount, but it is unavailable to customers who are occasional users or low-volume users of the Turnpike. The OTC is exploring the expansion of this discount by allowing the Ohio Trucking Association to administer a volume rebate program for its membership. The current toll rebate program costs the OTC approximately $6 million annually. It is uncertain how many trucking companies would take advantage of an expanded program, so annual costs of such a policy option cannot be determined. Similarly, it is difficult to estimate how many trucks such a policy would attract to the Turnpike. While the discount program is attractive for many truckers, it alone was not proposed as a sole solution to the problem of attracting additional trucks. Reduce Truck Tolls Of the policy options available to increase truck use of the Turnpike, reduction of truck tolls is expected to have the most benefit, but also have the greatest cost. While the potential benefit is straightforward, the public costs and the alternatives to finance the cost offer the greatest range of alternatives for evaluation. Truck diversions caused by toll reductions are calculated by ODOT s traffic model, presented earlier. The toll elasticity curve is an approximation of the truck volume that will use the Turnpike at a given level of toll reduction. The cost of a toll reduction is very easy to calculate and to determine its impact on the OTC s finances. The question of efficacy revolves around consumer behavior: ODOT s traffic model assumes traffic follows the least-cost (in terms of cost, and time expressed as cost) route available. A toll reduction will attract trucks to the Turnpike if this assumption holds true. As a policy goal, ODOT determined a percent increase in Turnpike truck volume would provide a meaningful shift of traffic from parallel state roads. In terms of volume, 1,500 to 2,000 trucks per day would divert from parallel roads to the Turnpike. In effect, truck volumes on roads such as U.S. 20, SR 2, and U.S. 422 would return to levels experienced before the Turnpike increased its tolls in the mid-1990s. The OTC and ODOT determined a toll reduction would be most effective on the heaviest weight classes, where tolls are highest. Tolls at the lower weight classes approximate the modest truck tolls imposed by the Indiana Turnpike, which does not report a major problem of truck diversion. With some deliberation, the agencies determined they could fund a $23 million truck toll reduction, which could achieve a 26 percent toll reduction for Class 7; 27 percent toll reduction for Class 8; and a 57 percent toll reduction for Class 9 vehicles. If combined with a speed limit increase for trucks, a 26 percent to 27 percent toll reduction will increase Turnpike truck traffic in those classes about percent, and the 57 percent toll reduction will increase truck traffic approximately 40 percent, according to the modeling. Financing Options for a Truck Toll Reduction Using $23 million as a target for planning purposes, the subordinate discussion revolves around financial alternatives analysis. A number of alternatives are available but it was assumed the best Page 19

21 policy option would be the least cost over a -year planning horizon. The basic alternatives to finance a toll reduction are presented below. Ohio Turnpike Fuel Sales Tax Revenue The OTC currently receives $0.05 of the state tax revenue from Turnpike fuel sales, generating about $2.7 million annually. The total state tax per gallon of fuel is $0.26 per gallon; if the Turnpike were to receive all of this revenue, it would total $12.9 million annually. The -year cost of such a policy would be $389 million, money which would not be available for other transportation projects in the state. Ohio Turnpike Credit for Travel Incurred on Turnpike There is a policy argument that Turnpike customers pay twice to use the Turnpike: tolls, and fuel taxes. Following this line of reasoning, there is a finance alternative where Turnpike patrons would only pay tolls to use the Turnpike, and not fuel taxes. As a practical matter, the policy could be achieved by 1) reporting the number of vehicle miles traveled on the Turnpike; 2) calculating the fuel used by these vehicles; 3) in turn, calculating the amount of fuel taxes paid by the Turnpike s patrons, and; 4) credit the OTC with a like amount, which would represent the fuel taxes otherwise incurred by its customers. Using the logic above, the OTC performed a preliminary analysis of the vehicle miles traveled on the Turnpike, finding that users paid approximately $43 million in fuel taxes for travel on the Turnpike. The -year cost of such a supplemental payment would total $1.29 billion, which would not be available for other transportation projects in the state. Reduction in Ohio Turnpike Capital Program and/or Operating Expenses The OTC annually spends approximately $50 million on capital improvement projects, and $93 million on operating costs. Capital projects include toll plaza rehabilitation, pavement and bridge rehabilitation, and third lane addition projects. Operating expenses include employee wages and routine operations such as snow and ice control. After review of its total annual budget, which is approximately $200 million, the OTC determined it could contribute $8 million annually toward a toll reduction, though it is not enough in and of itself, to accommodate a $23 million truck toll discount. However, pledging this amount creates no burden on the public treasury, and so is an attractive alternative to at least assist in toll reduction. Moreover, any rise in traffic will improve the OTC s revenue position over time. Refinance of Ohio Turnpike Debt The Ohio Turnpike is debt-financed, and currently has about $737 million in outstanding toll revenue bonds. The annual debt service for these bonds is approximately $55 million. The debt has a fairly long horizon, with final payoff in To finance a toll reduction, an initial concept was to investigate any economic savings from refinancing existing debt. However, the OTC has already taken advantage of favorable market conditions and refinanced a portion of its debt. The only available option is to buy down the OTC s debt, or a portion thereof, thereby freeing the OTC of debt service, which would allow a commensurate toll reduction. Working with a financial advisor, ODOT and the OTC identified $200 million of outstanding bond issues, which were callable or otherwise available for defeasance. ODOT assumed it could issue debt at very favorable rates, in order to defease $200 million of the OTC s debt and thereby eliminate $15.6 million in annual debt service. ODOT would be eliminating long-term OTC debt, and replacing it with 10-year ODOT debt, paid for by ODOT. While the cost to ODOT is significant, Page 20

22 the annual cost lasts only 10 years, while the OTC saves $15.6 million for 20 years, which it can pledge to a truck toll reduction. In summary, a Turnpike toll reduction can be funded by increasing revenue from other sources, internal funding via some annual savings, refinance of OTC debt (which in fact also requires revenue from other sources), or a combination thereof. The table below shows the strategies available to finance a toll reduction, with their associated annual cost or savings, and -year cost to the public. The least-cost strategy is a reduction of OTC capital and/or operating expenses, but it is not enough to offset the revenue loss of a meaningful toll reduction. The next best strategy is an ODOT defeasement of some OTC debt, which costs $23 million annually for 10 years. Summary of Policy Options The foregoing narrative illustrates a range of policy alternatives, with a range of public cost and estimated efficacies. The policy options are arranged in a table below to allow direct comparison and reveal the optimal strategy for northern Ohio truck traffic. Page 21