Alcohol and traffic accidents in insurance perspective

Transcription

1 Alcohol and traffic accidents in insurance perspective A k e L in d g re n T he International Institute on A lcohol Policy (IIA P) and A lcohol and D rug Free T raffic - International, Box 5071, Stockholm, Sweden A B ST R A C T B oth experim ental and epidem iological research show that driving under influence o f alcohol entails an elevated accident risk. T he contribution from drunken driving to the level o f traffic accidents differs betw een countries as do the legal system and contents o f counter-m easures. It is not so w ell observed o r analysed w hich influence m otor insurance w ith its term s and conditions has on traffic safety and drunken driving. Still it looks reasonable to anticipate that the insurance system together w ith the legal system are o f im portance for a m ore sober traffic w ith less accidents. T he paper gives som e notes w ith exam ples from Scandinavia. S T A T IST IC S O F P R IV A T E C A R S A N D A C C ID E N T S IN SW E D E N T he statistics from the Sw edish insurance industry show the developm ent o f the num ber o f cars and accidents. D uring the last 25 years the number o f private cars has changed fro m an increase during the first tw o decades to a stable level in the 1990's. T his is show n in Table 1. It is a reflection o f changes in the private econom y am ong people from a long period o f grow th to a period o f recession. T he population figures during the sam e period have increased from 8.1 m illion to 8.9 m illion. It m eans that during 25 years the num ber o f inhabitants per car has decreased from 3.4 in 1971 to 2.4 in 1990 and then rem ained at that level during the years thereafter

2 A s far as accidents in traffic are concerned the statistics ( see table 1 ) indicate that traffic has becom e m ore safe. Since 1988, the number o f advised claims has decreased in m otor third party insurance, w hich is com pulsory for every car ow ner according to the law. A s percentage o f the num ber o f cars in traffic, claim s frequencies w ere 14.4 % in year 1971, 11.8 % in 1980, 11.4 % in 1990 and 8.7 % in T his m eans a decrease o f approx 40 % in relative risk for a car accident during those 25 years. T he developm ent o f fatalities in traffic w as furtherm ore encouraging. T he absolute figure decreased from 862 in 1971 to 527 in A s percent o f the num ber o f cars, it m eans a decrease o f the claim s frequency from 0.37 per m ille to T his change is as big as 60 % tow ards safer traffic in Sweden. T he num ber and frequencies o f serious personal injuries in traffic accidents correspond w ith deaths and are regularly about five tim e higher than fatalities. O n the other hand, the developm ent o f slight non-fatal personal injuries is not equally good. T he definition o f those claim s - if there is a sm all injury or not - can be subject to different practices depending on the source of inform ation. T R A F F IC S A F E T Y P O L IC Y The num ber o f vehicles and the density in traffic during the last five years are influenced by a less favourable private econom y, increased car and petrol prices as w ell as other econom ically based factors. A n active public traffic safety policy has to be added to the factors o f explanation and is definitely o f utm ost im portance for w hat is described as safer traffic. D uring the last 25 years, different new rules and regulations have been introduced for traffic safety reasons, such as: speed lim its, differentiated at 50, 70, 90 and 110 kilom etres per hour yearly car inspections of vehicles older than tw o years stricter per m ille rules concerning driving under the influence o f alcohol (DUI) inform ation cam paigns follow ing up the revolutionary reform in 1967 w hen all d rivers had to change from driving on the left side o f the road to the right side

3 new insurance rules in term s, conditions and tariff structure w ere introduced together w ith a unified n o-claim -bonus system and car classification system (1964) for policyholders in all com panies and a new Traffic Insurance law in Public opinions have m ostly preceded the law -m aking. Sw edish popular m ovem ents dealing w ith traffic safety have played an im portant role in this context. A n exam ple is the cam paign at the end o f the 1980's fo r "Zero per m ille" o f alcohol in traffic, w hich T h e A bstaining M otorists' A ssociation (M HF) initiated and successfully perform ed. It seem s like the road and traffic authorities do not stop at the positions reached. T hey have adopted idealistic m ovem ents' view s and seem to be prepared to use a visionary philosophy. "V ision o f zero" has been introduced by the public authority for traffic safety (V agverket), described as "an idea o f a road transport system w ithout health risks". A L C O H O L C O N S U M P T IO N, T R A F F IC A C C ID E N T S A N D D U I-C A SE S. A s in m ost E uropean countries the alcohol consum ption in Sw eden has decreased during m any years. T he official sales figures give a good estim ation o f the consum ption. T he average consum ption, calculated as sales o f alcoholic beverages in litres o f absolute alcohol per in habitant aged 15 or over, w as 6.10 litres in It w as the low est figure during the last 25 years, som e 13 % low er than 1971 and 21 % low er than in 1976 w hen the consum ption reached its peak during the period (table 1). T he num ber o f cases concerning driving under the influence o f alcohol (D U I) has also decreased as show n in table I and diagram 1. T he statistics concerning traffic accidents, w hich have been investigated by the police and in w hich the drivers have been suspected to have a b lood alcohol content above the legal lim it. T he developm ent since 1971 is very satisfying w ith a decreasing num ber o f cases. D U I-developm ent seem s to be better than the total num ber o f traffic accidents and the num ber o f fatalities. C om pared w ith the sales o f alcohol, there is a clear correlation w ith D U I-cases as show n (Table 1 and diagram 2)

4 P O S IT IV E D E V E L O P M E N T D U R IN G T H E 1990 S A s indicated in the statistics, the situation for D U I -cases has been especially favourable during the last 5-7 years. T his is confirm ed by m ore profound investigations. In post-m ortem exam inations by legal pathologists o f fatalities in traffic a yearly decrease o f D U I-cases has been show n, from 31 % in 1990 to 21 % in It is reasonable to anticipate that changes in law have played an im portant role to the changed DU l-behaviours: the legal per m ille lim it concerning drunken drinking w as low ered on 1 July, 1990 from 0.5 to 0.2. T he per m ille law w as originally introduced in 1941 w ith a low er level o f 0.8 and then changed in 1957 to 0.5. A bove the level o f 1.5 the regular sentence w as prison. breath tests on suspected drunken drivers was introduced as from 1 July, stricter rules from 1 July, 1991 in order to get the driving licence back after being sentenced for D U I, and w ith an additional requirem ent o f a sober lifestyle the upper lim it for the m ore qualified drunken driving was low ered from 1.5 per m ille to 1.0 from 1 February, the sanctions according to the law are fines or im prisonm ent up to tw o years if the per m ille level is above 1.0. O ne m onth's im prisonm ent is the norm al sentence for drunken driving at the upper per m ille lim it. Seizure o f the driving license for one m onth or m ore is an additional sentence as w ell as a possible but not so often used forfeit o f the vehicle. A m ore nuanced range o f sentences has been recom m ended during the last decade, w hich considers that drunken drivers often have alcohol problem s and need care and treatm ent. T he effects o f those changes have been analysed and a public report have been presented during T he researchers have inform ed that there are statistical p ro o f o f few er accidents because o f the low er p er m ille lim it. F atalities decreased w ith som e 8 %. A s far as sanctions are concerned ju dges have been criticized for using different practice when sentencing people for drunken driving. An investigation show s that in 1995 in cases of 1.0 per m ille or m ore, 60 % o f all cases w ere sentenced to prison, 31 % to protective supervision or rehabilitation and in 8 % conditional sentence. There is a w ide spread round

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