Growth of Hydrogen Vehicle Fleet & Required Refuelling Infrastructure

Transcription

1 Growth of Hydrogen Vehicle Fleet & Required Refuelling Infrastructure Provinciehuis Zuid-Holland, Den Haag, 25 March 2010 Presented by Marcel Weeda

2 Overview THRIVE Allocation Model Scenarios Results Conclusions 2

3 Overview THRIVE Roll-out Simulation Model Scenarios Results Conclusions 3

4 Real world: 4 main actors, many factors Consumers purchase vehicles based on: Characteristics (brand, model, space, range, etc) Vehicle cost Fuel availability Fuel price & efficiency ( /km) Influenced by: Car manufacturers: Fuel suppliers: Policy makers: vehicle availability & cost fuel availability & price regulation, taxes and subsidies 4

5 THRIVE Roll-out Simulation Model Starting Points Level playing field present for hydrogen 4-digit zip codes within NL & Drive time between zip codes Number of non-hydrogen vehicles per zip code (ZC) & total increase of passenger car fleet Current conventional refuelling station network zip codes and characteristics Current consumer behaviour Refuelling Car purchase 5

6 THRIVE Roll-out Simulation Model Approach Allocating H 2 refuelling units Start / new situation For each zip code: - # of H 2 refuelling units - # of H 2 vehicles - # of non-h 2 vehicles Based on score representing potential number of customers New H 2 cars per zip code Based on: - Car replacement rate - Availability of H 2 -cars - Availability of H 2 New refuelling units needed Based on: - Overall H 2 demand - H 2 refuelling unit capacity - Utilisation requirement 6

7 Overview THRIVE Roll-out Simulation Model Scenarios Results Conclusions 7

8 THRIVE Scenarios from Policy Perspective Policy focus Generic Infra Cars Infra & Cars Policy ambition level Low Medium Medium Medium High Fuel supplier strategy Careful Reactive Careful Reactive Proactive Car industry strategy Careful Careful Reactive Reactive Proactive Consumer attractiveness Low Low Medium Medium High 8

9 Fuel supplier strategy: Seeding & Utilisation (1) Careful Reactive Pro-active Seeding H 2 stations 17 seeds in major & capital cities in seeds + 17 seeds + 22 seeds seeds seeds seeds seeds 2018 Utilisation Requirement: Required station utilisation before installing a new station High Medium Low 9

10 Fuel supplier strategy: Seeding & Utilisation (2) 17 seeds available in 2014 Station Utilisation Strategies 100% isation Refuelling Station Utili 80% 60% 40% 20% Hydrogen CNG Municipality Level 0% H 2 OR CNG Refuelling Units 10

11 Fuel supplier strategy: H 2 station allocation (1) Allocation Strategy Phase I 11

12 Fuel supplier strategy: H 2 station allocation (2) Phase I ( ) 10% of refuelling stations >25% of total fuel sold Phase II ( ) 30% of refuelling stations >50% of total fuel sold Phase III ( ) 100% of refuelling stations 100% of total fuel sold 12

13 Car industry strategy: H 2 car model availability (1) Careful Reactive Pro-active Intro period all brands first movers followers followers followers Car deployment strategy: Introduction new model every 5 years, Introduction new model every 5 years Introduction new model every 5 years, starting in 2025 but acceleration in 2030 A hydrogen car for everyone available in

14 Car industry strategy: H 2 car model availability (2) Fraction of moto orists addressed 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Year Careful Robust Energetic 14

15 Consumer attitude towards hydrogen Usual: Positive attitude but sticks to current refuelling behaviour Eager: Positive attitude and willing to change refuelling behaviour Fraction of Motorists 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Usual Eager Drive Time from Home to Refuelling Station [min] 15

16 Overview THRIVE Roll-out Simulation Model Scenarios Results Conclusions 16

17 Results car penetration per scenario Hydroge en cars [x1000] 50% % % % % 0% Year Hydrogen car penetration Policy focus Generic Infra Cars Infra & Cars Policy ambition level Low Medium Medium Medium High 17

18 Results underutilisation and car penetration Hydrogen refuelling units , ,000 1,690,000 2,030,000 3,530, Hydrogen cars [x1000] Policy focus Generic Infra Cars Infra & Cars Policy ambition level Low Medium Medium Medium High 18

19 generic focus low ambition 2050 car & infra focus high ambition 19

20 Sensitivity seeding H 2 refuelling units 58% Hydroge en cars [x1000] 50% % % % % 0% Year Hydrogen car penetration Policy focus & ambition Infra & Cars, High Seeding everywhere 20

21 Sensitivity H 2 refuelling unit utilisation Hydroge en cars [x1000] 50% % % % % 0% Year Hydrogen car penetration Policy focus & ambition Infra & Cars, High Required utilisation High Medium Low 21

22 Sensitivity H 2 car model availability Hydroge en cars [x1000] 50% % % % % 0% Year Hydrogen car penetration Policy focus & ambition Infra & Cars, High Car model deployment Delayed (careful) Energetic 22

23 Sensitivity consumer attitude Hydroge en cars [x1000] 50% % % % % 0% Year Hydrogen car penetration Policy focus & ambition Infra & Cars, High Consumer attitude Usual Eager 23

24 Consumer attitude: usual Car & Infra focus, high ambition 2050 Consumer attitude: eager 24

25 Overview THRIVE Roll-out Simulation Model Scenarios Results Conclusions 25

26 Conclusions Meaningful penetration requires: Widespread upfront availability and visibility of H 2 stations Fast expansion of hydrogen refuelling station network Rapid deployment of different H 2 car models and may accelerate if automobile drivers get tempted to change old habits Transition takes time and requires an approach on large scale to be successful: even with coherent, specific and long term policy stimulation it may well take over a decade before penetration becomes significant With proper incentives, our simulations indicate that by 2050, 30-50% of all cars could run on hydrogen 26

27 The THRIVE consortium gratefully acknowledges the Ministerie van Economische Zaken and SenterNovem for their financial support