POWER, PARALLEL AUTONOMY, AND PEOPLE Gill Pratt CEO at Toyota Research Institute GTC 2016
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1 POWER, PARALLEL AUTONOMY, AND PEOPLE Gill Pratt CEO at Toyota Research Institute GTC 2016
2 1.2 Million People
3 Part 1: Power How much power should it take to drive an autonomous car?
4 CURRENTLY: THOUSANDS OF WATTS
5 Another Solution 30 W Works even while daydreaming
6 How Does It Do That?
7 DARPA M3-Actuation
8 Energy efficiency is improved by sparse utilization of complexity Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited
9 DARPA Neovision2: Sparse utilization of computing complexity can improve energy efficiency as well Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited
10 DARPA SYNAPSE: BRAINS VS. VON NEUMANN COMPUTERS Brains Complexity Less Constrained Human Brain: synapses SWaP Highly Constrained Human Brain 30 W 3 pounds Sparse, Distributed Computation Dedicated Functionality Unary (Spike) Coding 20,000 : 1 1 : 500,000,000 1 : 300,000,000 Computers Complexity Highly Constrained Xbox One 28 nm SoC: 5 x 10 9 Transistors SWaP Less Constrained IBM Sequoia Blue Gene/Q (98, core Power-PC chips) simulating 5 x synapses Von Neumann Architecture 8 Million 1/1000 real time 500,000 1/1000 real time Multiplexed Functionality Binary Coding Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited
11 DARPA SyNAPSE: IBM True North SyNAPSE Chip: 5 Billion Transistors 256 Million Synapses (1 Human Brain / 400,000) 50 real time 3 x W/synapse (Brain) : 2 x W/synapse (SyNAPSE) 1 : 1000
12 CONCLUSION: POWER Buy More Hardware Unroll Computations Avoid Multiplexers Turn Most Hardware Off Most of the Time
13 Part 2: Parallel Autonomy Must we achieve Level 4 to deal with the handoff problem?
14 DARPA Robotics Challenge (Finals - June, 2015)
15 24 Teams Came From Around the World DARPA Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited
16 Program Structure DARPA Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited
17 SOME FELL OVER
18 SOME DID GREAT (KAIST)
19 MODEL BASED SERIES AUTONOMY Autonomy 1 Communication Operator Degraded Network Emulator DRC Robot DARPA Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited
20 DARPA ARM-S LIMITING CASE OF 0 POST-COMMAND COMMUNICATIONS (JPL) DARPA Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited
21 Is This the Only Model of Autonomy?
22 Three modes of shared control
23 PARALLEL AUTONOMY: BRAIN COMPUTER INTERFACE ON QUADRIPLEGIC BOX AND BLOCKS 2-MINUTE TIMED TEST ARM + RP Collaboration PM : Gill Pratt (DSO) in collaboration with Justin Sanchez (BTO) Performers: CMU/NREC (Bagnell et. al.) + U. Pittsburgh (Schwartz et. al.) DARPA Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited
24 How Does this Apply to Autonomous Driving?
25
26
27 AKIO TOYODA S PRIORITIES Safety Environment Mobility for All Fun to Drive
28 NEEDED RELIABILITY NUMBERS About 10 Million Toyota cars are produced / yr. Each car lasts about 10 years About 100 Million Toyota cars are in service Each car is driven about 10 thousand miles / yr. Toyota cars are driven about 1 Trillion miles / yr. It takes only a few defect-caused accidents / yr. to cause an existential crisis
29 SERIES (CHAUFFER) VS. PARALLEL (GUARDIAN ANGEL) Aspect Chauffer (Series Autonomy) Guardian Angel (Parallel Autonomy) Duty Cycle 100% < 1% : only if accident imminent Liability Manufacturer Mostly Driver Required Competence All of Driving Do No Harm Note: Technology Supporting Guardian Angel + Chauffer are similar Development All or Nothing lives lost until done Incremental lives saved sooner Driver s Skills Ignored Utilized as much as possible Fun + Love of Car Decreased car becomes train Handoff Problem? Yes No Increased allows high performance experience by novice drivers
30 SERIES (CHAUFFER) VS. PARALLEL (GUARDIAN ANGEL) Series (Convenience) Time, Complexity Hybrid Autonomy Medium Speed Auto Driving Chauffer Slow Speed Auto Driving Automatic Highway Passing Lane Keeping No Hands Automatic Parking Adaptive Cruise Cruise Speed Warn Speeding Prevention Guardian Angel ABS ASC NAV Side Collision Warn Front Collision Warn Collision Avoidance Braking Lane Departure Warn Lane Departure Prevention Collision Avoidance Steering Collision Avoidance Acceleration Parallel (Safety) Time, Complexity
31 TRI S AUTONOMY RELATED GOALS Improve Safety Improve Access Diversify Toyota from Mobility Outdoors to Mobility Indoors
32 But What About the Trillion Miles?
33 SIMULATION Repeatable Studies of Human Machine Interface Regression Testing for Software Development Amplification of Physical Testing
34 Part 3: People
35 TRI ANN ARBOR (TRI-ANN) Palo Alto ~150 People Guardian Angel Ann Arbor ~50 People Chauffer Cambridge ~50 People Simulation
36 WHY ANN ARBOR? University of Michigan M-City, Mobility Transformation Center American Center for Mobility (Planned) Toyota Technical Centers
37 TRI-ANN ARBOR AREA LEADS Prof. Ryan Eustice Area Lead, Mapping / Localization Prof. Ed Olson Area Lead, Perception
38 DIDN T THEY USED TO WORK FOR FORD? Ford Edison Assembly Plant, Metuchen, NJ, March 1961
39 CO-OPETITION ACCELERATES PROGRESS Eiji Toyoda visiting Ford River Rouge Plant, ca. 1950
40 Our Hope: Constructive Competition and Collaboration Car Manufacturers IT Companies Governments Hardware Manufacturers
41 Why Co-operate?
42 1.2 Million People Per Year Demand Nothing Less
43 CONCLUSION : FIRST EVER BCI DOOR OPENING ARM + RP Collaboration PM : Gill Pratt (DSO) in collaboration with Justin Sanchez (BTO) Performers: CMU/NREC (Bagnell et. al.) + U. Pittsburgh (Schwartz et. al.) DARPA Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited
44 Thank You NVIDIA!
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