Staying Ahead of the Curve
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1 Staying Ahead of the Curve Understanding Key Trends in California s Automotive Marketplace 27 November 2012 John C. Humphrey Senior Vice President & General Manager Global Automotive Division J.D. Power and Associates
2 Strong 2012 and Moderately Optimistic for 2013 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales In Millions of Units Total Sales Retail Sales Sources: J.D. Power and Associates and LMC Automotive, November
3 California s Recovery in Sales is Impressive California Share of National Retail Sales YOY Growth (2012 Trend) 12% 30% 23% 10% 11% 20% 10% 13% YTD 0% California US Source: Power Information Network (PIN) 3
4 More Product: More Consumer Interest and Competition Products in Market E 2013F Sources: J.D. Power and Associates and LMC Automotive, November
5 Recovery Seen in Leasing and Credit Availability Lease Penetration Retail Sales by FICO: 2012 YTD Trend vs Nation California 39% 44% 19% 14% 24% 19% 31% 24% 29% 9% A+ ( ) A ( ) B ( ) C ( ) D (0-624) Source: Power Information Network (PIN) 5
6 Record Transaction Prices And Less Incentives Incentives / Unit Transaction Price Total Industry $27,644 $28,337 $28,318 $25,505 $26,317 $3,018 $2,968 $2,871 $2,686 $2, YTD Source: Power Information Network (PIN) 6
7 Leading to A Much Healthier Industry Consumer Expenditure on New Vehicles ($Billions) 17.0 Total Sales (In Millions of Units) $341 $340 $ $ $341 Flat vs $292 $270 $254 $ Sources: J.D. Power and Associates and LMC Automotive, November 2012 FORECAST 7
8 Risks to US Forecast Dealing with the fiscal cliff - real & psychological impact Geopolitical tensions in the gulf region Spreading of Euro debt crises Pace of recovery in employment Economic slow down in China 8
9 California Market Trends: The Changing Face of California 9
10 California: Continued Rapid Population Growth, But Population in millions Total US: 2001: 281m 2020: 341m California Texas New York Florida Ohio Michigan Source: Rand Corporation / U.S. Census Bureau 10
11 A Rapid Diversification in Population California Demographics Trend (percent) White Hispanic Asian Black 2010 % California USA White Hispanic Asian Black Language other than English Spoken at home Source: U.S. Census Bureau 11
12 Understanding Gen Y Will be Imperative US Estimated 2012 Population (2012 Total USA Population: 313 Million) Proportion of New-Vehicle Buyers in the USA (Percent) Population in millions Gen Y Gen X Boomer Pre-Boomer Percent Gen Y Gen X Sources: U.S. Census Bureau ; J.D. Power and Associates Sales Satisfaction Index (SSI) Study SM 12
13 California Market Trends: Attitudes, Values and Behavior 13
14 Rethinking How to Engage with Younger Consumers 50% 45% 40% Most Influential Reason: Why I did Not Purchase from This Dealer? Dealer Treatment 47% 43% 38% 40% 35% 30% % Intending to Use Non-Franchised Dealer for Service 33% 30% 35% 25% 22% 30% 20% 25% 15% 20% Gen Y Gen X Boomer 10% Gen Y Gen X Boomer Source: J.D. Power and Associates Sales Satisfaction Index (SSI) Study SM 14
15 11/20 12/28 2/4 3/14 4/21 5/28 7/5 8/12 9/19 10/27 12/3 1/10 2/17 3/27 5/4 6/10 7/18 8/25 10/2 11/9 12/16 1/23 3/1 4/8 5/16 6/22 7/30 9/6 10/14 11/20 Trend Continues Towards Conservation / Environment 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 41% % Indicating Engaging in "Green" Activities 36% 34% 32% 31% CA NY FL IL TX Regular Gas Price (US $/G) Month Average Retail Price Chart Los Angeles Date (Month/Day) Regular Gas Price (US $/G) Source: 2012 GasBuddy.com; J.D. Power Research 15
16 California Car Buyers: A Greater Interest in Fuel Efficiency Most Influential Purchase Reason California % of National Sales 41% 20% 12% Industry Retail Hybrid Electric Sources: J.D. Power and Associates 2012 Automotive Media and Marketing Report SM ; Power Information Network (PIN) 16
17 A Significant Shift To Smaller Vehicles Segment Share of California Retail Sales Large Midsize Sub/Compact 40% 44% 47% 49% 51% 52% 43% 42% 42% 39% 38% 38% 17% 14% 12% 12% 12% 10% YTD Source: Power Information Network (PIN) 17
18 California Market Trends: Technology s Impact on Retailing & Product 18
19 Percent AIUs Are You Confident in Your Digital Strategy? 100% Automotive Internet Usage (AIU) 90% Gen Y 87% 80% 70% 60% 50% 54% 60% 60% 64% 64% 67% 68% 70% 75% Boomers 79% 82% 79% 79% 79% * 40% * Preliminary data from the J.D. Power and Associates 2012 Sales Satisfaction Index (SSI) Study SM Source: J.D. Power and Associates New Autoshopper.com Study, SM and Sales Satisfaction Index (SSI) Study, SM
20 Percent Visiting Less Traditional Control of Content / Message Buyers Visiting an Auto Site 98% 100% 81% 73% 75% 50% 25% % of New Vehicle Buyers Indicating Ratings Site Influenced Dealer Selection 40% 30% 20% 10% 29% 24% 0% Dealer Sites OEM Sites Third Party Sites 0% CA Non CA Sources: J.D. Power and Associates 2012 New Auto Shopper Study 20
21 Auto Consumers Use Social Media More Frequently Automotive Consumer Social Media Usage: Activities Getting information or recommendation 132 Posting a comment about an experience 125 Finding coupons, promotions and deals 115 Contacting to ask a question or resolve a problem 111 Source: J.D. Power and Associates 2012 Social Media Benchmarking Study SM Index Auto vs. Overall 21
22 Salesperson or Shopper: Who Has More Information? Location While Accessing Auto Content Tablet Smartphone At home while only accessing smartphone/tablet 74% 89% At home while watching TV 70% 85% At the dealership 18% 59% Work Traveling/Commuting Waiting in line Relative/Friend's house Shopping/Running errands Recreational activities 13% 12% 23% 21% 30% 55% 38% 51% 47% 44% 44% 43% Content Accessed at Dealership Vehicle pricing Model information Search inventory Compare vehicles 26% 23% 37% 50% Source: J.D. Power and Associates 2012 New Autoshopper.com Study SM 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 22
23 Device Screen/ Application/Function Link LED Headlights Natural Language Voice-Activation Next Generation Head-Up Display Wireless Connectivity System Remote Vehicle Diagnostics Enhanced Collision Mitigation System Surround Rear View Camera System HD Radio Personal Assistance Safety Services Enhanced Adaptive Cruise Control Mobile Router Lane Departure Prevention System Biometrics Cloud Online Data Storage System Automatic Parallel Parking System Vehicle Communication System Rear Seat Monitoring System Autonomous Driving Mode 16% 26% 33% 32% 35% 47% 43% 71% 65% 75% 62% 61% 67% 68% 59% 68% 61% 66% 59% 68% 56% 61% 55% 60% 52% 60% 48% 54% 45% 55% 54% 55% 52% 62% 56% 74% 72% 82% Increasing Desire for Technology 100% Emerging Technology Interest - Pre Price Baby Boomers Generation Y 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 23 Source: JD Power Emerging Tech Study
24 Buyer s Preferred Method to Learn More about Features and Controls Post-Sale 51% 49% 43% 38% Online Video 25% 25% 28% 31% Phone Call to Salesman 30% 33% 43% 62% Return to Dealer for "Live" Explanation Gen Y Gen X Boomer Pre-Boomer Source: J.D. Power and Associates Sales Satisfaction Index (SSI) Study SM 24
25 Summary Rate of LV sales growth will slow, but overall more healthy industry In a period of rapid demographic change We are only in the beginning of how new consumers will change the way in which we market/communicate New consumers/technology causing amplification of product/dealer advocacy 25
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