The Grid of the Future. Farrokh Albuyeh, Ph.D Farrokh Rahimi, Ph.D. Smart Grid Conference 2014 Grid Renovation Workshop. December 8, 2014.

Transcription

1 The Grid of the Future Farrokh Albuyeh, Ph.D Farrokh Rahimi, Ph.D. Smart Grid Conference 2014 Grid Renovation Workshop December 8, 2014 Session 1 1

2 Agenda Session 1 75 Minutes Introductions Driving forces changing the electric utility landscape The impacts of the proliferation of Variable Energy Resources (VER) Operational challenges at the wholesale/transmission and at retail/distribution levels Increased visibility and situational awareness requirements at the distribution level Using AMI and customer data to increase visibility to last mile distribution circuits Managing Demand Response (DR) and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Break 15 Minutes Session 2 75 Minutes A new construct: Distribution System Operator (DSO)/Distrusted System Platform (DSP) Overall Description Implementation The emerging Transactive Energy paradigm and its convergence with DSO/DSP constructs Break 15 Minutes Session 3 60 Minutes Illustrative examples and case studies Concluding Remarks/Question and Answer 2

3 Introduction Our discussions 4 years ago Our discussions today Part 1 review of the emerging industry landscape and impact on Smart Grid in recent years Part 2 Some specific emerging constructs to accommodate new operational and business requirements Part 3- Specific case studies, lessons learned 4

4 Driving forces changing the electric utility landscape 6

5 7

6 Emerging Industry Landscape Environmental Regulations Changes in Fuel Economics Technology Advancements Impact on Power System and Market Operations Energy Efficiency Sentiments and Regulations Role of Information Technology Evolving Utility Business Model Challenges and Opportunities 8

7 Renewable Generation / March States like Hawaii and California have aggressive RPS targets 9

8 MW Capacity California s Projected Renewable Resources 20,000 18,000 2,337 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6, ,990 1,100 1,167 4,538 1,467 2,137 1,387 6,422 5,073 5,551 1,834 2,200 2,567 Solar Thermal Large Solar PV Small Solar PV 4,000 7,024 7,202 7,485 7,495 7,495 Wind 2,000 Source: CPUC LTPP/CAISO

9 MW Capacity MW Capacity Generation Outlook US Electricity Generation by Fuel 2012 to 2040 Projections 0.9% avg. growth in demand 5% reduction in Coal 3% reduction in Nuclear 4% increase in Renewables 5% increase in Natural Gas US Wind Generation Capacity New Capacity Cumulative Capacity 10,000 Solar PV Generation Capacity Cumulative Capacity Linear (Cumulative Capacity) 70,000 60,000 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Cumulative Capacity ) 9,000 8,000 7,000 50,000 6,000 40,000 5,000 30,000 20,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 10,000 1,

10 The Impacts of the Proliferation of Variable Energy Resources (VER) 14

11 Increasing Levels of Renewables-Operational Impacts-Wholesale/Transmission Issues Scheduling and forecasting Need for increased Ancillary Services Need for new reserve services (Flexible reserves) Balancing energy challenges Inter-area scheduling problems 15

12 Source: NERC Special Report: Accommodating High Levels of Variable Generation, April MW MW Variability/Unpredictability of Wind 250 A 200 MW wind farm Hours Hours CAISO 16

13 Variability/Unpredictability of Solar Generation Source: NERC Special Report: Accommodating High Levels of Variable Generation, April

14 A Sample CAISO Winter Day in 2020 Source: CAISO 18

15 Impact on Load Profile Source: CA ISO Flexible Capacity Flexible Ramp-Up and Flexible Ramp-Down Products Demand Response (DR), Storage (electric and thermal), Distributed Generation 19

16 Operational Impacts-Wholesale/Transmission The (Curse of the ) Duck Curve Source: 20

17 Projected Load Profile Hawaii Islands Oahu Maui Big Island 21

18 Clearing Price $/WMh Impact on Energy Market Prices $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 -$20 -$40 low Price High Price HE1 HE2 HE3 HE4 HE5 HE6 HE7 HE8 HE9 HE10 HE11 HE12 HE13 HE14 HE15 HE16 HE17 HE18 HE19 HE20 HE21 HE22 HE23 HE24 22

19 Other Services Contingency Conditions Normal Conditions NERC Reserve Definitions Service Regulating Reserves Response Speed 4 Sec. - ~1 Min Duration Cycle Time Market Cycle Price Range (Avg./Max) $/MWh Minutes Minutes Hourly $33-$60 Flexible Capacity New Products: Flexible Ramping Load Following or Real-Time Energy ~5-10 Min 5 min to Hour 5 Min to Hour Hourly Balancing Energy Spinning (Synchronized) Reserves Seconds to <10 Min 10 to 120 Min. Hourly to Days Hourly $6-$27 Generation Following Non-spinning Reserves < 10Min 11 to 120 Min. Hourly to Days Hourly $1-$3 Replacement or Supplemental Reserves <30 Min 2 Hours Hourly to Days Hourly $1-$4 Voltage Control Seconds Seconds Continuous Year(s) $0-$4/kVar-Yr Black Start Minutes Hours Monts to Years Year(s) 23

20 Increasing Levels of Renewables- Operational Impacts-Retail/Distribution Phase Imbalance Increased Neutral Current Flow Increased Losses Voltage Fluctuation Excessive Operation of Voltage Regulation Equipment Increased Losses Distribution Grid Congestion Two-Way Power Flow Protection Equipment Requirements for Smart Inverters and New Protection Equipment 24

21 Distribution/Retail Impacts-Phase Imbalance 138 kv Substation kv 21 MVA 138/12.47 Voltage Regulator Single Phase Residential 400-A peak 600-A emergency Feeder rating 25 kva Single Phase Residential Lateral 1.5 MVA 120 A Fuse Primary Feeder 25 kva Secondary Distribution 50 kva 12.47kV/220V Three-Phase Residential Three-Phase Residential Lateral 1.5 MVA Recloser Single Phase Residential 5 MVA kv 50 kva 12.47kV/208Y/120 Three Phase Commercial Lateral - 2 MVA 1 MVA 12.47kV/4160/480V 1.5 MVA 12.47kV/4160/2.4kV 2014 OATI, Inc. Open Tie 25

22 0:00 1:20 2:40 4:00 5:20 6:40 8:00 9:20 10:40 12:00 13:20 14:40 16:00 17:20 18:40 20:00 21:20 22:40 0:00 0:00 1:15 2:30 3:45 5:00 6:15 7:30 8:45 10:00 11:15 12:30 13:45 15:00 16:15 17:30 18:45 20:00 21:15 22:30 23:45 Voltage (pu) Voltage (pu) 0:00 1:25 2:50 4:15 5:40 7:05 8:30 9:55 11:20 12:45 14:10 15:35 17:00 18:25 19:50 21:15 22:40 0:00 1:20 2:40 4:00 5:20 6:40 8:00 9:20 10:40 12:00 13:20 14:40 16:00 17:20 18:40 20:00 21:20 22:40 0:00 kw kw Impact of PV Generation on Load and Voltage 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Sunny Day Load PV kw Sunny Net Load Sunny 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Cloudy Day Load PV kw Cloudy Net Load Cloudy Volt No PV Time Volt Sunny Volt No PV Time Volt Cloudy Time Time 26

23 Impact on Utility s Business (Example California) Assuming An average 15 /kwh USD 27% PV Capacity Factor 3,000 MW of non-utility solar generation Approximately $7.1 million USD MWh/yr reduction in sales An expected $1.06 billion USD/yr reduction in CA IOU revenues Increased challenges with distribution grid voltage and operations, two-way flows Higher cost of balancing energy and need to maintain higher reserves Need to adjust utility s business model 27

24 Addressing the Challenges: Customer Side DR/DER Assets Increasing Role 28

25 Addressing Variable Generation-Summary Better Forecasting Sub-hourly Scheduling Use of Customer-Side Assets DR DER Creation of Energy Imbalance Markets Use of Energy Storage Bridging Wholesale/Retails Seams Distribution System Operator 31

26 Energy Imbalance (MW) 0:00 0:08 0:16 0:24 0:32 0:40 0:48 0:56 1:04 1:12 1:20 1:28 1:36 1:44 1:52 2:00 2:08 2:16 2:24 2:32 2:40 2:48 2:56 3:04 3:12 3:20 3:28 3:36 3:44 3:52 4:00 4:08 4:16 4:24 4:32 4:40 4:48 4:56 5:04 5:12 5:20 5:28 5:36 5:44 5:52 0:00 0:08 0:16 0:24 0:32 0:40 0:48 0:56 1:04 1:12 1:20 1:28 1:36 1:44 1:52 2:00 2:08 2:16 2:24 2:32 2:40 2:48 2:56 3:04 3:12 3:20 3:28 3:36 3:44 3:52 4:00 4:08 4:16 4:24 4:32 4:40 4:48 4:56 5:04 5:12 5:20 5:28 5:36 5:44 5:52 Wind Generation (MW) MW Energy Imbalance (MW) 0:00 0:08 0:16 0:24 0:32 0:40 0:48 0:56 1:04 1:12 1:20 1:28 1:36 1:44 1:52 2:00 2:08 2:16 2:24 2:32 2:40 2:48 2:56 3:04 3:12 3:20 3:28 3:36 3:44 3:52 4:00 4:08 4:16 4:24 4:32 4:40 4:48 4:56 5:04 5:12 5:20 5:28 5:36 5:44 5:52 0:00 0:08 0:16 0:24 0:32 0:40 0:48 0:56 1:04 1:12 1:20 1:28 1:36 1:44 1:52 2:00 2:08 2:16 2:24 2:32 2:40 2:48 2:56 3:04 3:12 3:20 3:28 3:36 3:44 3:52 4:00 4:08 4:16 4:24 4:32 4:40 4:48 4:56 5:04 5:12 5:20 5:28 5:36 5:44 5:52 Wind Generation (MW) Hourly vs. Intra-Hourly Scheduling Representative Wind Power Generation Pattern Genetration Schedule Energy Imbalance Levels Max Imb. Min Imb. Std Div Ramp Size Hourly Energy Imbalance Time Representative Wind Power Generation Pattern Genetration 15 min - Schedule min 15 min 1 hour min Imbalance FERC Order 764 (June 2012) - Integration Of Variable Energy Resources Intra-hourly scheduling - 15 minute Forecast Data Time 32

27 What is an EIM The EIM is A Market for Balancing Energy Centralized Unit Dispatch for Balancing Energy Voluntary Dispatch is regional and is calculated using a security constrained, offer-based economic dispatch (SCED) every 5 minutes An EIM Effectively aggregates the variability of generation and load over many BAs thereby reducing the total amount of required reserves Allows participants to use the lowest cost generation in the market to balance loads and generation across many BAs 33

28 Energy Imbalance Markets Objective: Combine imbalances and share dispatchable resources among two or more Balancing Authority (BA) areas Time Resolution: 5-minute scheduling/dispatch Time Horizon: One or more 5-minute time intervals Dispatchable Resources: Conventional Generation, Dispatchable DR, Dispatchable Storage Balancing Area 1 Balancing Area 2 Balancing Area OATI, Inc. 34

29 Use of DR/DER to Mitigate VER 35

30 GW Load Clearing Price $/WMh Demand Response and Storage $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 -$20 -$40 low Price High Price HE1 HE2 HE3 HE4 HE5 HE6 HE7 HE8 HE9 HE10 HE11 HE12 HE13 HE14 HE15 HE16 HE17 HE18 HE19 HE20 HE21 HE22 HE23 HE24 Shift Load Storage Shift Load Demand Response Storage base load Adj. Load HE1 HE2 HE3 HE4 HE5 HE6 HE7 HE8 HE9 HE10 HE11 HE12 HE13 HE14 HE15 HE16 HE17 HE18 HE19 HE20 HE21 HE22 HE23 HE

31 Example of Regulatory Mandates on Storage On October 17, 2013, the California Public Utilities Commission approved measure to establish storage procurement targets and policies for load-serving entities (utility and non-utility) 37

32 Increased Visibility and Situational Awareness Requirements at the Distribution Level 47

33 The Increasing Roles of DR/DER DR/DER to Address wholesale/transmission Operational Issues DR/DER to Address Retail/Distribution Operational Issues 48

34 Need For Better Situational Awareness Visibility Where they are ( electrical, geographical) What is their state Predictability New Forecasting tools- Bottom Up Schedule-ability New scheduling tools, larger dimensions, co-optimization of diverse set of resources Grid Reliability Modeling impacts of DR/DER on distribution grid New State Estimation/Power Flow calculation tools Controllability Real-time/near real-time Monitoring and verification Accounting and settlement Customer Communications Outreach Customer Access ( Portals, Mobile Devices) Physical and Cyber security, Data Privacy 49

35 Distribution Grid - The Last Frontier A significant portion of the distribution grid in the U.S. dates back to early 20 th century Network data? Residential units are mostly on single phase circuits Distribution planning today is done based on standards and consumption patterns developed decades ago Distribution grid operator has little visibility to secondary and last mile circuits 50

36 The Aging Distribution Grid 51

37 Using Advanced AMI and customer data to increase visibility to last mile distribution circuits 52

38 Harvesting AMI Data - Current Uses Current penetration of Advanced Meters In US: 30.2% ( 45.8 out of Million) (Source: Innovation Electricity Efficiency, Utility-Scale Smart Meter Deployments: A Foundation for Expanded Grid Benefits - August 2013) Customer Metering and Billing Green Button Program - Allowing customers to download their energy usage data to personal computers and smart devices (7 utilities have activated programs, 27 utilities committed) (Source: FERC Staff report on Assessment of DR & AMI- October 2013) New Customer Services and Products Home Energy Reports Home Energy Management Software Mobile Software Applications (Billing, Service Requests, Outage Notifications, ) 53

39 Harvesting AMI Data - Other Value Examples Interval Metering and Time Series Data for Load Profiling and Operational Support Forecasting Bottom-up from Meter to System Level Calculation of Losses and Unaccounted for Energy (UFE) Power Flow/State Calculation DMS Augmentation, Improved Situational Awareness Phase Balancing, Loss Minimization Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) Use of Demand Side Assets to Address Reliability and Economic Issues Distribution Asset Data Management Condition-Based Maintenance 54

40 Other Demonstrated Benefits Predict Location and Extent of Outages Better deployment of restoration crew Faster restoration Integration with automated switching to reduce outages Improved Customer Outreach Source: FERC Staff report on Assessment of DR & AMI - October 2013) 55

41 Data Silos - Diverse Set of Software Solutions 2014 OATI, Inc. 56

42 Interactions to Support Changing Business Environment 2014 OATI, Inc. 57

43 Breaking Data Silos Enterprise Integration DMS EMS GIS CIS CRM Enterprise Integration OMS WMS AMI/SMI MDM IVR Increasing Volume of Data Multiple Systems of Record Little Data Interchange Data Duplications Data Maintenance 58

44 Breaking Data Silos - Extended DMS 59

45 Data Integration and Interoperability ICCP, IEC 61850, DNP 3.0, ModBus, Zigbee, Wi-Fi, Wi-Fi Direct CIM, MultiSpeak, OpenADR 2.0, SEP,.. Visualization and Control Wired, Wireless, Cellular, PLC Secure Data Acquisition Optimization Systems and Enterprise Data Integration webintegrate Secure web services, SFTP, Enterprise Integration SCADA DMS OMS EMS MDMS Billing Trading Scheduing Markets Weather Feed 60

46 Analyzing the Distribution Grid-Challenges with Traditional State Estimators and Power Flows State Estimator Availability and Redundancy of Real-Time Measurement (Observability) Availability of Accurate Mathematical Network Model Convergence Issues Adapted from Transmission (Balanced/Single phase) to Distribution (Unbalanced/Three-Phase) Performance a function of Network Size Requires Constant Maintenance and Tuning 61

47 Analyzing the Distribution Grid-Challenges with Traditional State Estimators and Power Flows- (Contd.) Power Flow At best, an Approximate Solution Uses Bus Load Distribution Factors Availability of Accurate Mathematical Network Model Convergence Issues Adapted from Transmission (Balanced/Single phase) to Distribution (Unbalanced/Three-Phase) Performance a function of network size Requires Constant Maintenance and Tuning 62

48 Data-Driven Distribution State Calculation 63

49 Managing Demand Response (DR) and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) 64

50 Merging of Wholesale and Retail 65

51 Proper Modeling of the Distribution Grid Distribution Grid Dynamic Topological Connectivity Model Three Phase Load Flow Voltage Measurements Aggregation at Different Grid Levels Loading at Different Grid Levels Data Exchanges with SCADA GIS/OMS DMS Zone Substation 1:n Feeder 1:n Single, Two, and Three Phase Laterals 1:n Distribution Transformer 1:n 138 kv Substation kv 400-A peak 600-A emergency Feeder rating Recloser 21 MVA 138/12.47 Voltage Regulator 5 MVA kv Single Phase Residential Lateral 1.5 MVA 120 A Fuse 50 kva 12.47kV/220V Three Phase Commercial Lateral - 2 MVA 1 MVA 12.47kV/4160/480V 25 kva Primary Feeder Secondary Distribution Three-Phase Residential Lateral 1.5 MVA 50 kva 12.47kV/208Y/ MVA 12.47kV/4160/2.4kV Service Point Open Tie 66

52 Dispatchable Voltage Reduction as a Resource 67

53 Physical and Cyber Security Optimization Visualization and Control Secure Data Acquisition OATI GridControl Systems and Enterprise Data Integration DNP3 DNP3 68

54 Questions? 69