GAUTRAIN OUR JOURNEY TO A BETTER GAUTENG

Transcription

1 GAUTRAIN OUR JOURNEY TO A BETTER GAUTENG 7 October 2016

2 CONTENTS The Journey Begins 2 The Vision for the Future 4 Construction 9 All Systems Go 12 Getting You Connected 15 Getting You There The Transfer Point 22 Adding Value to Gauteng Powering the Future 31 Platform to a Better Tomorrow 38 1

3 SPATIAL AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES Public transportation supports economic growth through the concentration of economic activity and the clustering of offices, shops, entertainment centers, and other land uses around public transportation stops. Such clustering activity may provide increased efficiency through reduced labour cost, improved communication, lower infrastructure costs, and increased interaction with similar businesses. Clustering provides an opportunity for more face-to-face contact and for access to specialized labor, which result in higher productivity and more economic growth. 2

4 Network diagram: Journey to a better Gauteng 3

5 THE JOURNEY BEGINS GMA commissioned KPMG to determine the impact that the Gautrain system has had on the Gauteng Province including: Property values Economy Links to government policy Job creation Transport patterns Lifestyle changes Perception of users and non-users In addition, this study would support GMA s plans to extend the services of the Gautrain. 4

6 Pre-Gautrain Vision for the Future 5

7 THE VISION FOR THE FUTURE A CHALLENGING SITUATION Sources: StatsSA, enatis, Arrive Alive, Road Traffic Management Corporation 6

8 THE VISION FOR THE FUTURE A CHALLENGING SITUATION Sources: StatsSA, enatis, Arrive Alive, Road Traffic Management Corporation Transport sector needed to be built, which would Bridge the mobility gap, Promoting access to economic opportunity for Gauteng's residents Address the shortage of public transport in main development nodes in the Province; and Reduced strain on other modes of transport. 7

9 THE VISION FOR THE FUTURE FACTORS FAST-TRACKING THE FORMULATION OF THE VISION FOR THE GAUTRAIN SYSTEM Unlocking growth potential Structural constraints to faster socio-economic development Shortage of public transport Changing demographics Growing urbanisation and population Additional pressure on infrastructure Need for convenience Importance of safety, convenience and time Moving perceptions Change perceptions Increase buy-in from non-users and the general public Factors fast-tracking the formulation of the vision for the Gautrain system Striving for equality Bridge mobility gap Overcome inequality Promoting access Economic empowerment Promoting urban regeneration Revitalisation of the CBDs Faster development in the region Promoting sustainability Reduce negative impact on air quality Addressing productivity Reduce traffic congestion Time lost Accident costs Transport costs Productivity losses Sources: Various national and provincial policies, Gautrain Feasibility Study, 2001, KPMG analysis 8

10 THE VISION FOR THE FUTURE DREAMING OF A WORLD-CLASS RAIL SYSTEM TO CONNECT OUR PEOPLE Gautrain s strategic objectives How the Gautrain contributes to Gautrain s strategic objectives achieving these objectives Integrated transport Facilitate development Job creation and Socio- Economic Development (SED) Unlock the economic development potential Integrated public transport system Integrate land-use and transportation Value capture At its core a rapid rail link system Increased infrastructure investment Spatial Development Initiatives to stimulate economic growth and job creation Accessibility and mobility Promote tourism Promote the use of public transport Improve the image of public transport Source: Gautrain Feasibility Study,

11 Construction Laying the tracks 10

12 CONSTRUCTION 11

13 CONSTRUCTION LAYING THE TRACKS The Gautrain construction supported socio-economic development objectives Source: GMA SED report

14 CONSTRUCTION LAYING THE TRACKS The Gautrain construction generated a variety of positive economic spin-offs from R26.5 bn investment Substantial future economic gains to be derived from an expansion of the Gautrain system Source: KPMG Analysis 13

15 All systems go Gathering traction 14

16 OPERATIONS 15

17 ALL SYSTEMS GO GATHERING TRACTION The Gautrain s operations support socio-economic development objectives p.a. p.a. Source: GMA SED report 2013/14 financial year 16

18 ALL SYSTEMS GO GATHERING TRACTION The Gautrain s operations yield a variety of positive economic spin-offs from R1.6bn of revenue generated (13/14) Including the creation of smart jobs Substantial future economic gains can be derived from an expansion of the Gautrain system Source: KPMG Analysis 17

19 Getting you there The transfer point 18

20 GETTING YOU THERE THE TRANSFER POINT PEOPLE ON THE MOVE Reasons for travelling, Most Gautrain commuters travel for work purposes 60% 54% 55% 51% 50% 46% 40% 34% 31% 30% 27% 21% 22% 19% 20% 17% 13% 10% 3% 2% 2% 1% 0% July-Dec 2012 Jan-June 2013 July-Dec 2013 Jan-June 2014 Catching/coming from a flight Commuting for work purposes Commuting for private purposes Other Demand for high-quality public transport exists Particularly for people using the services for work purposes 55% of Gautrain commuters previously used private transport Taking business travellers off the road mitigates congestion Especially during morning peak hours Source: Catalyst, Service Audit Tracks, 2013 and

21 GETTING YOU THERE THE TRANSFER POINT MOVING PUBLIC OPINION Most common answers to the question: "What would be the one thing that you believe would stop you from using the Gautrain?" Safety, integration with other modes of transport and affordability were key concerns for potential commuters in 2006 Safety/security on the train Transport to and from the stations Ticket cost/affordability Need personal transport during the day Not enough incentive to change my habits Loss of personal freedom Should there be too many people on the train If it takes me longer to get to my destination Reliability/Efficient running of the Gautrain Frequency of trips Don't Know/Nothing I travel to more than one/other destinations Convenience of having my own transport The nature of my job would not allow it The proposed route does not pass near my destination Flexible Hours 4.10% 1.90% 1.20% 1.20% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 0.60% 0.60% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 9.90% 16.50% 15.30% 44.70% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00% Source: Synovate Gautrain Survey,

22 GETTING YOU THERE THE TRANSFER POINT MOVING PUBLIC OPINION 2006 AND 2011 Across South Africa, respondents bought into the vision of the Gautrain, albeit some doubted its timely completion: 2006 Source: Synovate Gautrain Survey, Source: MEC Dr Ismail Vadi, Budget Vote,

23 GETTING YOU THERE THE TRANSFER POINT MOVING PUBLIC OPINION 2013/14 Opinion of the Gautrain, top ten responses, % of total Most top of mind for Gautrain commuters are its speed and time savings Fast/saves time 38% Convenient 20% Costly/expensive 18% Safe 14% Smart/classy/upmarket/exclusive 14% Top/first/world class/best/quality 10% Clean 9% Punctual/always on time 6% Comfortable 6% Reliable 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Source: Catalyst,

24 GETTING YOU THERE THE TRANSFER POINT PROVIDING A BETTER QUALITY OF LIFE trips 23

25 GETTING YOU THERE THE TRANSFER POINT PROVIDING A BETTER QUALITY OF LIFE Scenario analysis on fatal accidents and fatalities Fatal accidents per year Fatalities per year Number of fatal accidents Gautrain avoids between 13 and 81 fatal accidents per year based on the assumption of percentage of accidents that occur on the Pta-Jhb corridor % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Percentage of total accidents that occurs on the Pta- Jhb corridor Number of fatalities Gautrain avoids between 14 and 93 fatalities per year based on the assumption of percentage of accidents that occur on the Pta-Jhb corridor % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Percentage of total accidents that occurs on the Pta-Jhb corridor 24

26 GETTING YOU THERE THE TRANSFER POINT CONNECTING YOU TO THE WORLD The average time saving and reliability of the service has aided in its popularity 32mins Source: Urban Studies, Gautrain commuter survey, 2012, TomTom Congestion Index 2013, Gautrain Management Agency, Goole Maps, Graphic24, KPMG calculations 25

27 PRODUCTIVITY - TRAVEL TIME 26

28 GETTING YOU THERE THE TRANSFER POINT CONNECTING YOU TO THE WORLD The Gautrain s Airport link Source: Urban Studies, Gautrain commuter survey,

29 CO2 REDUCTION 4-Car Train kwh/km 170 passengers average per train 50% Carbon footprint reduction 28

30 dding value to Gauteng Powering the future 29

31 EMPOWERING BUSINESS ACTIVITY 30

32 ADDING VALUE TO GAUTENG POWERING THE FUTURE DEVELOPING OUR COMMUNITIES Letter A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U Description Hatfield Station Jean Avenue Shopping Centre Office Park Eris Office Park Office Block Echo Park N1 Business Park Investec Development opposite Midrand Station Midrand Station New Warehouse for Dis-Chem Pharmaceuticals Warehouse Development for Companies like Builders Warehouse Waterfall City Mall Waterfall City Residential Area Gautrain Depot OR Tambo Modderfontein City Planned Future Development Light Industrial Development on Scarce Property Marlboro Station Renault, HILTI and SUPA Quick Commercial site Area Upgrade Around Sandton Station Discovery Health new Head Office Park Station Examples of developments along Gautrain route Source: Google Earth, AfriGIS 31

33 ADDING VALUE TO GAUTENG POWERING THE FUTURE DEVELOPING OUR COMMUNITIES Aerial map - central section (2005) Aerial map - central section (2014) Source: Google Earth, AfriGIS E F Office Block Echo Park N1 Business Park 32

34 ADDING VALUE TO GAUTENG POWERING THE FUTURE EMPOWERING BUSINESS ACTIVITY Increase in the gross lettable area (GLA) Escalating demand for rental space There has been an over 100% rise in rental rates in Rosebank over the last decade Rosebank GLA and vacancy rates Developers in Rosebank have adequately aligned demand with supply of available letting area Rosebank rental rates (deflated) Rental rates in Rosebank have increased by more than 100% over the last decade Percentage 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 16.2% 12.9% 7.2% 4.2% 3.9% 2.8% 78, , , , , , %9.3% 6.0% 4.9% , , , , , , ,000 70,000 20,000-30,000 Square meters R/m² Sum Development GLA Vacancy rates Source: IPD, 2014 Source: Rode,

35 ADDING VALUE TO GAUTENG POWERING THE FUTURE EMPOWERING BUSINESS ACTIVITY Economic impact of increased business activity R10 billion invested in new developments and upgrades to retail centres between 2009 and 2014 The additional investment in the retail industry added R28 billion to the Gauteng economy s GDP during 2013, representation of 3% of the provincial GDP 1, emphasizing the importance of the multiplier effect which the retail industry has on the Gauteng economy. The retail industry s operations sustained about jobs in Gauteng in 2013, representing about 4% of the total employment 2 in the Province during An increase in GLA has led to additional investment of R986 million in office space. The increased investment in office rentals had a total impact on the provincial GDP of R920 million. Even though its impact was not as significant as the retail industry, it still made a contribution of about 0.1% to the provincial GDP in jobs were sustained in Gauteng due to the additional office space available in Source: IPD, Rode, IOL, Property 24, SA Commercial Prop News, Engineering News, Business Day, KPMG analysis 34

36 RHODESFIELD - INDUSTRIAL RENTAL RATES 35

37 MARLBORO - RENTAL RATES 36

38 ADDING VALUE TO GAUTENG POWERING THE FUTURE HOME IS WHERE THE HEART IS Sectional title residential property inflation and property sales by Gautrain station within a 0km 2km radius, 2011/13 Source: Lightstone,

39 ADDING VALUE TO GAUTENG POWERING THE FUTURE HOME IS WHERE THE HEART IS Residential property Source: KPMG analysis 38

40 latform to a better tomorrow 39

41 PLATFORM TO A BETTER TOMORROW GAUTRAIN ON THE MOVE M The good news associated with the Gautrain, do not stop here The Gautrain has already contributed to some of the NDP milestones and will continue to be a major player in shaping the economy of Gauteng, more so if its network expands beyond the current capacity M Fulfilling the criteria of a catalytic and transformative infrastructure project that would lift socio-economic development in the Gauteng region onto a higher, and more sustainable growth trajectory. M WESTGATE M Radical spatial, social and economic transformation in the GCR, thereby promoting a more equal society through better access to economic opportunities to benefit Gauteng s residents 40

42 PLATFORM TO A BETTER TOMORROW GAUTRAIN ON THE MOVE NDP milestones to achieve South Africa s visions for 2030 How the Gautrain can contribute to achieving these milestones Increasing employment Operations supporting in excess of jobs Localisation of rolling stock maintenance and building of rolling stock For every R1m invested in future expansion, approximately an extra 5 jobs can be created Increase per capita income, 22% of income flowing to lower income households specifically for lower income Expanding the public transport network will create further opportunities for the households unemployed Competitive base of infrastructure and Improve South Africa s competitiveness position human resources Currently, the country is ranked in 66th position Ensure that the job market better reflects the racial, gender and disability make-up of the country Establish safe, affordable public transport Access to quality education and healthcare Monitoring and evaluation process has been in place Reports tracking progress is published on a monthly basis Targets have been exceeded Before: concerns about safety Now: safety is one of the central elements Already an important way for students and scholars to reach educational institutions Reduction in carbon emissions Commuters opting to use the Gautrain instead of their motor vehicles, reduce their carbon footprint by 52% per trip 41

43 PLATFORM TO A BETTER TOMORROW GAUTRAIN ON THE MOVE ITMP25 interventions Facilitating local economic development outside the urban core How the Gautrain can contribute to achieving these milestones By connecting industrial areas to its workers and the city, the value proposition for functioning industrial zones outside of the urban core has increased significantly Land use densification in support of public transport The Gautrain and its feeder systems have increased connectivity which has led to residential, business and industrial densification, thereby integrating the metropolis Reinforcing the passenger rail network as the backbone of the system Extending the integrated rapid and road-based public transport networks 30% of commuters travel the entire distance A further 22% travels between Pretoria CBD and Sandton This supports the view that a rail network is well suited to cover longer distance connections The integrated nature of the Gautrain system in other transport systems is supported by the large portion (30% - 40%) of commuters that make use of the bus system to get to their point of final destination Capacity building in the transport industry First project of this nature in the country and largest PPP project in Africa Travel demand management As more than 50% of Gautrain users make use of private vehicles to get to and from the station, it is a good indication that these vehicles would have been on the road, probably during peak times 42

44 PLATFORM TO A BETTER TOMORROW GAUTRAIN ON THE MOVE Ten pillar programme Decisive spatial transformation through public transport infrastructure development and the creation of integrated and sustainable human settlements that are connected to hubs of economic opportunity Accelerated social transformation by raising the living standard of and quality of life of all people of Gauteng Modernisation of public transport infrastructure How the Gautrain can contribute to achieving these milestones The Gautrain promotes densification and property development around stations and routes linking the new developments to the Gautrain s services, example Rosebank and Sandton If the current usage by Gautrain users is considered, it is clear that the system is already an important way for employees to reach their place of work: more than 50% of Gautrain commuters use the Gautrain to get to work Over and above the 23% of income flowing to lower income households, expanding the public transport network will create further opportunities for the unemployed to be able to access work opportunities and thus aid in raising the quality of life of public transport commuters The Gautrain promotes the emergence of hubs of economic activity and increased spatial development surrounding the stations and bus routes. We expect that in areas where Gautrain stations will be located the surrounding areas will benefit through increased connectivity and economic activity Re Industrialisation of the Gauteng economy Future expansion to the Gautrain link, as well as localisation of rolling stock maintenance and building of rolling stock, can increase this number dramatically: For every R1m invested in future, at least R is estimated be added to GDP and 5 additional jobs are expected to be created 43

45 PLATFORM TO A BETTER TOMORROW GAUTRAIN ON THE MOVE GCR Game Changers: Economic Cluster Game Changer Role of the Gautrain and future extension in supporting these Game Changer projects Gautrain extensions Revitalisation of township economies Depending on where future Gautrain stations and routes will be located, surrounding areas are expected to experience transit-oriented development, driven by improved connectivity and access Green Economy With more commuters opting to use the Gautrain instead of their motor vehicles, there will be a substantial reduction in their carbon footprint, promoting a greener Gauteng economy Metropolitan BRT Systems The Gautrain extension, particularly if it is coordinated with other transport modes and future transport system expansions, will substantially support efforts to create a more integrated transport system in Gauteng, as described in the ITMP25 Metrorail upgrade Aerotropolis Through a seamless connection to other transportation modes, for example from ORTIA to the Gautrain and vice versa, Ekurhuleni and Gauteng can leverage their comparative advantage in the transport sector Gauteng as Africa s financial and services hub An extension of the Gautrain can make a major further contribution to facilitating growth in the financial and services hubs of Gauteng, thereby helping to cement the GCR as the primary provider of goods, services, and skills to the continent Gauteng Energy Strategy With commuters being increasingly diverted from road-based traffic, the Gautrain and its extension can make a substantial contribution to reducing the Province s reliance on carbonbased fuels 44

46 Comments Suggestions Questions Way forward 45