Volatile wind and flexible demand: a balancing act?

Transcription

1 Environmental Change Institute Volatile wind and flexible demand: a balancing act? Philipp Grünewald 5 th Smart Grids & Cleanpower Conference 5 June, Cambridge

2 What to expect Something old, (Storage) something new, (DSR) something borrowed, (Flexibility) something blue, (Peak demand) and a silver sixpence in her shoe (Data) Page 2

3 The displacement of conventional plant 1) decarbonise 2) electrify Source: Jonathan Radcliffe (ERP) based on DECC 2050 pathway Source: Transition Pathways Project Page 3

4 Sources of flexibility Flexible Generation Network Additional Storage Flexibility Consumption Responsive 1: Build flexible generation and curtail excess supply 2: Build expansive networks and enable spatial arbitrage 3: Build physical electricity storage capacity 4: Enable demand side flexibility to respond to supply Page 4

5 [Electricity storage] promises savings on UK energy spend of up to 10bn a year by 2050 as extra capacity for peak load is less necessary. George Osborne, 9 November 2012 Up to 30 new gas power stations will be needed by 2030 George Osborne, 5 December 2012 Page 5

6 The cost of meeting peak demand increases the value of storage Gross storage value [ /kw/year] storage 2GW 10 GW storage Wind deployment [GW] Price duration curve (1 year) Page 6

7 SOURCES OF FLEXIBILITY (Flexible) generation (Smart) networks (Responsive) specific changes demand in the lev in generation, and the flex all scenarios with compet baseline Grassroots case. The effect on the marginal much storage would be in The marginal values diffe exception of flexible dema Reduction in gross value of storage [%] Storage value reduction from DSR τ=2 hours τ=6 hours DSR P DSR capacity [GW] [GW] 20.1% 39.6% 18.0% 30.1% π DSR 400/MWh 50/MWh 51.4% 42.4% Marginal values: Strbac et al., Strategic Assessment of the Role and Value of Energy Storage Systems in the UK Low Carbon Energy Future. The Carbon Trust Page 7

8 Demand aggregation in the UK Collaboration with Kiwi Power Access to data for over 500 sites Half-hourly profile data (68 sites) Recorded response events (266 sites) Analysis of load profiles and load characteristics Distinct profiles demand a sector by sector approach Some sectors can not be generalised based on their profiles (e.g. manufacturing) Page 8

9 Demand response from stand-by generation (Telecoms sector) Contrasting the level of respon response, shows that the former co reductions. Stand-by generation effectiveness and reliability. In the response resource from demand tu Figure 4: Stand-by generation 52 responses to demand re Sample of 97 sites Page 9

10 Demand response from Load turn down (Hotels) stand-by generation (Telecoms) Contrasting the level of respon response, shows that the former co reductions. Stand-by generation effectiveness and reliability. In the response resource from demand tu Page 10

11 Untapped potential? Presently demand response plays a minor role in response provision. Although policy makers desire a level playing field for all options, generation based solutions have shaped the existing framework. Could the demand response contribution be improved through regulatory changes? Based on: National Grid. Page 11

12 Short Term Opera7ng Reserve (STOR) a service for the provision of addi7onal ac7ve power from genera7on and/or demand reduc7on 3MW or more of genera7on or steady demand Deliver within 4 hours from instruc7on Provide for at least 2 hours 20 hours recovery Ability to provide STOR at least 3 7mes a week Based on: National Grid. STOR Market Information Report Page 12

13 What if conditions were relaxed? Response capacity availability from UK warehouses (illustrative example) Capacity resource factor (STOR=1) CM? STOR 10h 4h 2m Longer response time 2h 15/20m à Time to preload à Greater capacity Longer response duration à Rising/falling warehouse temperature à Reduced capacity 4h 20m 24h Possibly worth between 0.4 and 1 GW

14 Plato s cave Page 14

15 Plato s cave Researchers Consumers Page 15

16 Conclusions Significant technical and commercial potential for various flexibility options Current regulatory structures favour generation based solutions A better understanding of demand response potential could be gained through a combination of empirical studies and detailed analysis Page 16

17 Thank you. Page 17