Delivering Environmentally Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Transcription

1 Jon Hart (Rolls-Royce Environment Strategy Manager) for Leigh Hudson (BA Sustainable Fuels and Carbon Manager Delivering Environmentally Sustainable Aviation Fuels Sheffield University 5 th April 2017

2 Introducing: aviation 1,402 Commercial airlines 173 Air navigation service providers 3.9 billion Passengers (2017) 38.4 million Flights (2017) 3,864 Commercial airports 26,065 Aircraft in service 51,554 Routes 80% average passenger load factor Flights (2017)

3 Introducing: aviation 62.7 million Jobs supported 35% of world trade by value ($6.4 trillion) 21 st largest Economy, ranked by GDP impact $2.7 trillion GDP supported (3.5%) 52% Of tourists fly to their destinations Social cohesion More people have access to air travel than ever Connectivity For today s modern world

4 The climate challenge Global challenge United Nations Processes 88 billion USG jet fuel (2017) (270 m tonnes) 840 million tonnes of CO2 from aviation (2017) 2% Of global humaninduced CO2 Growing industry, particularly in emerging economies 80%+ improvement In fuel efficiency since first jets

5 Our climate action plan

6 Our climate action plan

7 Working to develop a global market-based measure 2009: industry presents Governments at ICAO with climate plan. 2013: Governments agree to develop global MBM for sector. 2016: CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) agreed Currently: technical work at ICAO to design the structure of the CORSIA/Fuels and implementation from 2020.

8 ICAO Assembly agreements Global Market Based Measure (GMBM) ICAO resolution set out overall design of the GMBM, and implementation timetable Applies to international aviation, (but ideally applied to regional schemes to simplify compliance) Requires airlines to purchase carbon offset credits on CO 2 emissions above 2020 levels voluntary phase, 65 states agreed to participate. (83% operations covered) offsetting mandatory (with exemption LDC, LLDCs, SIDS,* or low RTK threshold) Monitor Review Verification : write processes, implement by 2020 Emissions Unit Criteria (EUC) critical to ensure credibility 2018 Finalise guidelines on emissions unit eligibility Registries critical to avoid double counting (and claiming) Develop guidance and policies, ICAO establish central registry Fuels: sustainability criteria and Carbon reduction credit EU ETS commission proposal Jan Current scope (intra EEA) continue to (continued clock-stop for international flights) Potentially extend clock-stop on international to 2027 while evaluate GMBM voluntary phase effectiveness.

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10 Sustainable Alternative fuels Could reduce CO2 from airline operations by up to 80%. Industry is working with supply chain, researchers, civil society to introduce sustainability standards. Can be created from waste sources and non-food crops. Over 5,000 commercial flights so far.

11 90% of across 24 markets worldwide agree: the online public Companies should pay more attention to the environment Source: Ipsos Global Adviser

12 86% of the online public across 24 markets worldwide agree: Companies should do more to contribute to society Source: Ipsos Global Adviser

13 But few think it is currently happening to any great extent Most large companies in the UK are working for the long term good of everyone Strongly disagree Strongly agree (2%) Tend to agree Tend to disagree Neither agree nor disagree Only 13% agree that most companies are already doing it half (47%) disagree Source: Ipsos MORI

14 Are sustainable fuels really sustainable?

15 Fuel processing routes

16 Sustainability challenges Sustainability certification Indirect effects Harmonisation It s not just about the climate Global

17 Sustainable Aviation Fuels Users Group (40% aviation fuel) Production non-competitive with food Biodiversity impacts are minimized; Should not jeopardize drinking water supplies/affect water stressed areas High conservation value areas & native eco-system should not be cleared and cultivated for aviation fuel production directly or indirectly; Total life cycle GHG emissions should be significantly reduced compared to those associated with fossil sources (at least 60% emission saving); In developing economies, development projects should improve socioeconomic conditions for small-scale farmers who rely on agriculture to feed them and their families, and that do not require the involuntary displacement of local populations.

18 Certified pathways Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene Pros Can take low value materials and have low cost of production Cons Not commercially proven at scale High cap ex for plant making financing difficult

19 Certified pathways Hydrogenated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) Pros Existing production capacity exists for road transport Cons Veg oils are unsustainable if grown on agricultural land (food vs fuel and indirect land use change) High conversion losses and costs of production

20 Certified pathways Synthesised Iso-Paraffinic Pros High value SIP (DSHC) could cross subsidise fuels production Could eventually use agricultural residues/waste Cons Uses sugars grown on agricultural land Cost is high and it has a lucrative market in health/fragrance/pharma

21 Figures exclude ILUC, which could significantly reduce CO2 benefits for some feedstocks, or make them worse than conventional fuel or

22 Sustainable Aviation: Cleaner, Quieter, Smarter 16 July 2014

23 Current Signatories Boeing Heathrow UTC Aerospace Systems

24 SA CO 2 Road-Map (2016)

25 What technologies will be possible? How much fuel will we need to meet the emission reductions we outlined? What fuel can be manufactured here in the UK? What is the global picture?

26 The potential for sustainable aviation Project objectives fuels What volumes of sustainable fuels could be available for UK aviation in 2030? CO 2 emissions savings Value added to the UK economy, including jobs How much sustainable fuel is required to meet the SA projections for 2050? Scope Validate the Sustainable Aviation CO 2 Roadmap estimated that by 2050 sustainable fuels would offer GHG emission savings of 15 24% Sustainable fuels - produced from wastes (including biogenic and non-biogenic post-consumer and industrial wastes), residues, and non-food crops from degraded land (avoiding food versus fuel conflicts and ILUC) & provide GHG savings of at least 60% compared to conventional kerosene

27 UK sustainable aviation fuel potential in 2030 Worldwide: 2020 global production: 1.3 million tonnes* 2030 global production: 3 and 13 million tonnes in share of aviation fuel demand: 0.7% and 3.1% 700, , , , , , ,000 0 Sustainable aviation fuel production, UK Tonnes per annum 4.3% aviation fuel demand High scenario Low scenario BAU 0.7% aviation fuel demand *(Ref total jet fuel consumption 270 m tonnes)

28 Examples of US alt jet fuel supply 2016 Fuel company Country base Conversion Process type ASTM CLEARED Suitability Alt Air fuels USA UOP HEFA Yes in 2011 (D7566 Annex A2) Fulcrum Bioenergy USA 1. Gasifica tion 2. FT (Fischer - Tropsch ) Yes in 2009 (D7566 Annex A1) Max blend 30% (50% max) 50% max Feedstock LCA Sustainability % GHG reduction* Tallow 45-60% RSB certified Volume prod Scale MSW TBD 1st refinery planned others WIP Airlines/custome rs supporting 42 mil USG/yr United KLM Gulfstream Cathay United Air BP In commercial aviation use? LAX 5mil USG/yr 3 yrs LAX? Tests/demos 375 mil USG 10yrs mil USG/yr 10 yrs 50 mil USG/yr 10 yrs Tons PA 6,000? 125,000 60,000 17,000 LanzaTech New Zealand 1. Ferment ation to ethanol, 2. AtJ process WIP (11k litres RR CLEEN2) TBD CO from steel mill Depends on region 55-80% (LT assessment **) China 100,000 USG/yr, Taiwan, Belgiuim + DoE $40m grant for demo plant Virgin demos Red Rock Biofuels USA 1. Gasifica tion 2. FT (Fischer - Tropsch ) Yes in 2009 (D7566 Annex A1) SG Preston USA UOP HEFA Yes in 2011 (D7566 Annex A2) Gevo USA 1. Ferment ation to isobutan ol, 2. an AtJ process Yes in 2016 (D7566 Annex A5) 50% max Woody biomass Forestry residue 30% Various renewable biomass 30% max Non-edible corn. Woody biomass Forestry waste NESTE Finland 1. HEFA Yes 50% 79% waste 19% palm oil 2% veg oil 70-80% Prod from mil USG total Plants 2,3 WIP Nom 0<50%<- 200% V dependent on feedstock Several Plants each 120mil USG/yr 55-80% Targeting $4.50/USG mil USG/yr Prod 1.5mil USG/yr Finland.2mTPA S Pore 1m TPA Holland 1m TPA Fedex Southwest 3 mil USG/yr 8 yrs 3 mil USG/yr 8 yrs 1,200 1,200 Jet Blue 33mil USG/yr 10 yrs 11,000 Alaska Lufthansa Lufthansa KLM SAS Demos 33mil USG/yr 10 yrs 11,000 2,400,000 *(Ref total jet fuel consumption est. 270 m tonnes)

29 Trajectory to meet 2050 GHG emission targets UK aviation fuel use estimated to peak around 2040 and decline such that demand in 2050 is approx. equal to 2030 at almost 15 Million tonnes UK require million tonnes of sustainable fuels to achieve GHG savings of 18 to 24% Global aviation industry will require Million tonnes of sustainable fuel To achieve these production rates would require a sustained annual growth of 14 to 18% 30

30 Potential benefits to the UK of developing sustainable fuels Worldwide In 2030, there may be between 90 and 160 sustainable fuel plants in operation globally producing aviation fuels in combination with fuels for road transport and other modes Global revenue for these sustainable fuel plants is estimated at between 8 billion and 17 billion UK In 2030, between 5 and 12 sustainable fuel plants producing a combination of aviation and road transport fuels (between 20% and 60% aviation fuel) Gross value added contribution to the UK economy is estimated at between 70 million and 265 million, including global exports of 100 million to 220 Between 900 and 3,400 UK jobs, including 500 to 1,000 linked to global exports 31

31 Overcoming Barriers: Enabling sustainable aviation fuel production by de-risking investment This chart illustrates the urgent need to act now to reduce investment risk over the next 10 years to ensure that commercial scale production can be achieved from 2030.

32 UK policy - Levelling the playing field Proposal for Aviation jet fuel to count towards transport RTFO from allow sustainable jet to qualify for tradeable certificates within incentive regimes (e.g. RTFCs in the UK) Still discussion on: what % volume cap, whether fixed or increasing over time what feedstock types are eligible (incl what wastes) what CO2 reduction benefit RTFC = UK Renewable Transport Fuel Certificate RTFO = UK Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation

33 Sustainable Alternative Fuels Why aviation? Supply industry benefits of working with aviation sector: We have no alternative technologies to liquid fuel to meet our 50% reduction in emissions by 2050 Other sectors have alternative technologies eg electric Relatively simple supply logistics ~ 100 airports = 80%+ global demand We are investors for the long-term Focus on second generation biofuels that avoid negative environment impacts and produce clean burning fuels We import 60% of our jet fuel into the UK and this trend is set to continue

34 Commercial Sustainable Biofuel

35 North America Southwest Fedex United Cathay Pacific South America GOL Aeromexico Global Airline Projects Sustainable Fuels Europe BA France/KLM Lufthansa Finnair SAS Asia Virgin Atlantic JAL ANA

36 Collaboration is key

37 Thank you.