Status of Worldwide Environmental Regulations. 20 th Annual Mobile Sources Clean Air Conference October 7, 2004

Transcription

1 Status of Worldwide Environmental Regulations 20 th Annual Mobile Sources Clean Air Conference October 7, 2004

2 Global Trends In Motor Vehicle (Cars, Trucks & Buses)Production Millions R-square = # pts = 53 y = -1.8e e+005x

3 The Global Market For New Motorcycles and Mopeds Middle East 0.4% Latin America 3.5% Europe 7.9% Total: North America 3.1% Oceania 0.3% Africa 0.4% Asia 84.4% Source: Honda Facts & Figures

4 World Motor Vehicle Population Millions Motorcycles Commercial Vehicles Cars

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6 New Vehicle Sales Forecast MC Diesel Trucks Gasoline Trucks Diesel Light Trucks Gasoline Light Trucks Diesel Cars Gasoline Cars Millions

7 Global Trends in the Total Vehicle Population (Excluding Motorcycles) Number (000) 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , Oceania Other Asia Japan S & E Asia Africa C & S America N America C & E Europe W Europe

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9 Share of worldwide C02 emissions from the combustion of fuel, by sector Residential 8% Commercial and other 6% Transport 26% Production of Energy 41% Source: IEA 2000a. Manufacturing and Construction 19%

10 Recent and Projected World Transportation Fuel Demand Million Barrels/Day Oil Equivalent Other Bunker Jet Fuel Diesel Gasoline Source: EIA/DOE (2001) Transportation is the Fastest Growing CO 2 Emissions Source

11 Lead Free Gasoline Worldwide 2004 Lead Free Leaded

12 Light Duty Vehicle NOx Standards (g/km) Petrol Diesel Tier 1 Tier 2 LEV2 ULEV2 SULEV Japan Euro 3 Euro 4

13 Light Duty Vehicle PM Standards (g/km) Tier 1 Tier 2 LEV2 ULEV2 SULEV Japan 2002 Japan 2005 Euro 3 Euro 4

14 International Emission Regulations: - Heavy-duty vehicles (GVW>3.5t) - Nitrogen oxides (NOx) Particulate matter (PM) Limits (g/kwh) 8 E.U Japan U.S Year (g/kwh) 0.30 Japan Limits E.U. U.S Year Low-sulfur diesel needed to meet 2005 regulations

15 Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel Is Spreading PPM US US 2006 EU 2000 EU 2005 EU Denmark Sweden Class 1 Germany 2003 Japan Japan 2004 Japan Hong Kong South Korea 2006 Taipei, China Australia 2006 Australia 2009 Thailand 2010

16 A view outside the Moscow Ministry of Transport September 30, 2004

17 Health Impacts of Air Pollution Premature Deaths Cancer Developmental Effects Hospitalization Asthma Attacks and Bronchitis

18 Gasoline Car Regulations Euro I 500 ppm Euro II 500 ppm Euro III 150 ppm Euro IV 50 ppm Japan ppm Japan ppm CA SULEV 30 ppm

19 U S U E U 20 S 0 E U 20 6 EU Sw 20 0 e D 0 5 G de e n 5er n m 9 m C ar an l a k y ss 20 1 Ja J a p J a 03 a S o p an n p an 2 T a ut H o ip h K ng 05 4 ei o K 7, r A u C h ea o n Sa in 20 g s t n t T h ra a 0 ia a li 20 6 go i la a 0, C nd 20 7 hi 2 06 le Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel Is Spreading PPM

20 Developing Countries Which Have Adopted US Or EU Standards For New Vehicles Population Vehicle Population Not Adopted 35.0% Not Adopted 29.0% Adopted 65.0% Adopted 71.0%

21 Europe European New Vehicle Sales ICELAND SWEDEN FINLAND NORWAY Europe 32.0% DENMARK UNITED KINGDOM NETHERLANDS IRELAND GERMANY BELGIUM POLAND CZECH REPUBLIC LUXEMBOURG SLOVAKIA AUSTRIA FRANCE SWITZERLAND HUNGARY SLOVENIA ROMANIA CROATIA BOSNIA MONACO ANDORRA ITALY SERBIA ALBANIA BULGARIA MACEDONIA SPAIN GREECE PORTUGAL MALTA ROW 68.0%

22 Euro 5/6 Developments Germany, France, Denmark &Sweden Pushing Hard For Traps Standards Process Could Be Very Slow DG XI Wants Part of CAFE Process 2005 Proposals 10 Accession Countries New Constitution New Parliament New Commission Likely 2-3 Years There Will Very Likely Be Tight Euro 5/6 Looking For Incentives Approach in the Interim German Environment Ministry Pushing Tax Incentives Similar push in several other countries e.g., France, Denmark, Netherlands UBA Jawboning Effectively

23 0 EU15 average Greece Sweden Finland Ireland Denmark Netherlands United Kingdom Portugal Germany Italy Spain Luxembourg France Belgium Austria Would You Rather Put A Filter on Your Kid Or Your Car? 70 Diesel New Car Sales in EU

24 Euro 5 Scenarios Proposed By Commission For Diesel Cars % Reduction From Euro 4 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -40% -40% -40% -50% -50% -50% -50% -60% -70% -70% -70% -66% -66% -66% -70% -80% -90% -90% NOx -90% PM -100%

25 European Agreement (g CO2/km) Kyoto Agreement Now Appears Likely Ac tu al Ag re em en 20 t 12 Ta rg et Some 120 g/km Cars in 2000 Target Range of g/km in 2003 Review Feasibility of 120 g/km for Average car by 2012 in

26 Average specific CO 2 emissions: Relative to 1995 value ACEA JAMA 85 KAMA EU

27 United States United States US and Canada New Vehicle Sales US & Canada 25.2% ROW 74.8%

28 US Air Quality: Ozone and PM2.5 Present Significant Challenges

29 USEPA str i pl ecr own Tier 2 Low Sulfur Gasoline 2007/10 HDE ULSD 2008/14 Nonroad ULSD

30 Status of US EPA's Voluntary Diesel Retrofit Program Total: Idling Controls 8.1% Biodiesel 10.2% Fuels, Additives, SCR 3.7% Early Retirement 5.7% PM Filter, Low Sulfur Fuel 49.9% Engine Repower 0.4% Engine Mods 19.3% Catalyst 2.8% 6/3/2003

31 New Vehicle Fuel Economy I mpr ov edrapi dl yunt i lmi d1980sbut 30 Fuel Economy (mpg) 28 CAFÉ Standard New Cars Combined 22 New Trucks CAFÉ Standard California

32 Asia Asia New Vehicle Sales Asia Asia 28.4% RUSSIA KAZAKHASTAN GEORGIA TURKEY UZBEKISTAN AZERBAIJAN TURKMENISTAN MONGOLIA NORTH KOREA KYRGYZSTAN JAPAN SOUTH KOREA TAJIKISTAN CHINA AFGHANISTAN SYRIA IRAN IRAQ NEPAL JORDAN BHUTAN PAKISTAN TAIWAN BANGLADESH SAUDI ARABIA INDIA BURMA OMAN LAOS THAILAND VIETNAM PHILIPPINES CAMBODIA YEMEN SRI LANKA MALAYSIA INDONESIA PAPUA NEW GUINEA ROW 71.6% Asia Could Surpass Europe by 2010

33 Japan Japan Japan New Vehicle Sales Sapporo Japan 10.7% Aomori Akita Iwate Yamagata Sendai Fukushima Niigata Koriyama Toyama Kanazawa Tochigi Nagano Fukui Tottori Matsue Gifu Kyoto Fukuyama Okayama Yamaguchi Nagasaki Nagoya Shizuoka Yokkaichi Okazaki Takamatsu Matsuyama Kochi Fukuoka Saga Shiga Kobe Osaka Tsu Nara Hiroshima Kitakyushu Ibaragi Maebashi Urawa Tokyo Chiba Hachioji Yokohama Tokushima Wakayama Oita Kumamoto Miyazaki OKINAWA-KEN NANSEI ISLANDS Kagoshima ROW 89.3%

34 New Standards For Japanese Vehicles (October 2005) NOx g/km PM g/km Diesels Gasoline G/kW-hr VW G 0k g , <3 G VW kg <,5 0,7 5 <1 VW kg < G as o lin e e as ol in 0k g LD Vs s C ar VW G , G , 1, 75 0k g< G kg <,5 00 VW <3 <1 VW G G kg 0k g,7 5,2 5 >1 EI W EI W <1,2 50 k g 0k g 0 Will Likely Be A Next Step in 2010 NOx PM

35 Gasoline 1.2% Diesel Fuel 100 ppm 50 ppm 10 ppm> % 500 ppm 50 ppm 0.2% 10 ppm> Desulfurizing Desulfurizing Fuels Fuels in in Japan Japan

36 Environmental performance target for next-generation EFVs 2010 Target <Passenger cars, small trucks> <Heavy-duty Vehicles> Fuel-efficiency target CO2 emissions per vehicle: Half of the present level Exhaust emissions target Exhaust emissions: Nearly Zero Fuel-efficiency target: To maintain present level of diesel vehicles Exhaust emissions target: NOx: 1/10 of 2005 target PM: Nearly zero (g/kwh) (g/kwh) 2.0 NOx /10 PM Nearly zero 0.2 Japan Development JapanDevelopment (2005) target (2005) target

37 China China New Vehicle Sales HARBIN SHENYANG BEIJING Cars, Trucks & Buses ÜRÜMQI TIANJIN LANZHOU XI AN Motorcycles & Scooters China 9.4% SHANGHAI China 43.0% WUHAN LHASA CHENGDU GUANGZHOU ROW 57.0% ROW 90.6%

38 Chinese Vehicle Population Has Been Exploding (million) Total Vehicle 20 Private Vehicle 15 Annual Growth Rate 11.6% Annual Growth Rate 23.0% Plus Approximately 50 Million Motorcycles And Over 20 Million Agricultural Vehicles

39 Growth in Annual Vehicle Production Has Been Even Faster (million) Total Cars 3 Annual Growth Rate 16.7% Annual Growth Rate 31.8% By The End of 2003, China Has Become The 4th Largest Producer In The World

40 Control Measures on Motor Vehicle Pollution Emission Standards For New Vehicles Time Category PC LDV&LDT HDDV Motorcycle Before ECE1503 EURO I ECE1503 EURO I None EURO I ECER40 EURO I 2005 EURO II EURO II EURO II EURO II Beijing, Shanghai already Introduced Euro 2 in 2003

41 What si npl ayi nchi na Nationally-SEPA Mobile Sources Beijing EPB Developing 11th Five Year Plan Document Will Put Strongest Environmental Case Together For Euro4 Stds & Fuels Pushing For Euro 3 Gasoline, Euro 4 Diesel Cleaner Fuels Adopted For July 1, 2005 Interested in Accelerating Euro 4 MMT Concern Shanghai EPB Also Interested in Leapfrogging to Euro 4

42 MMT Becoming Major Challenge Canada EU US Expert Panel Under Royal Society Soon Most Oil Companies Suspending Use Accession Members Forcing Issue Will Likely Set Up Testing Protocol Health Studies Underway EPA Being Very Cautious CARB Ban in Effect HEI Health Effects Study A Red Flag

43 Fuel Consumption Standards MT Cars Phase I will be effective in July 2005 ÓͺÄ(L/100km) Fuel Consumption (L/100km) Phase II will be effective in July 第一阶 Phase I段限值 第二阶 Phase II段限值 Existing Models 一般 M1类车 Curb 质量 Mass (Kg) 整备 kg

44 45 Red Line -- Phase II (2008) Green Line -- Phase I (2005) Approx CAFE-equiv MPG 40 For both Phases, the upper dot line is for Manual transmissions and the lower solid line is for Automatic transmissions Vehicle Test Weight (lbs)

45 China vs. U.S. Loose for Light Models But Stringent for Heavy Models (SUVs) 55 Red Line -- Phase II Miminum (2009) 50 Green Line -- Phase I Minimum (2006) Fuel Economy MPG 45 Blue Dots -- US Models (2000) Curb Weight (lb)

46 India India New Vehicle Sales Cars, Trucks & Buses Motorcycles & Scooters India 2.2% ROW 97.8% India 16.9% ROW 83.1%

47 New Vehicle Standards in India Entire Country Euro 2 April 2005 Euro 3 April 2010 Major Cities Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad & Ahmedabad, Pune Surat, Kanpur & Agra Already Euro 2 Tighter emission norms for all private vehicles, city public service vehicles and city commercial vehicles Euro 3 From April 2005 Euro 4 From April 2010 Through CSE (and ARAI), pushing to accelerate Time Schedule

48 India Diesel Fuels Road Map 2500 National Metros Current

49 Brazil New Vehicle Sales Brazil New Vehicle Sales Brazil 3.4% ROW 96.6%

50 Brazil Passenger Cars & Light Commercial Vehicles Heavy Duty Trucks & Buses Euro 3 Phased in Euro 4 in 2009 Fuels US EPA 1983 Standards Since 1997 Tier 1 Phased in (40/70/100%) Tier 2 in 2009 No Diesel Cars Allowed Diesel Fuel S in City from 2000 to 500 in 2005 & to 50 in 2009; in rural areas from 3500 to 2000 in 2005 & to 500 in 2009 Gasoline S from 1000 to 400 in 2004 & to 80 in 2008 A Diesel Strategy Paper That Will Call For Tighter Standards, More Quickly, & Retrofits To Be Released Soon!

51 Mexico New Vehicle Sales Mexico New Vehicle Sales Mexico 2.0% ROW 98.0%

52 Mobile Sources Program In Mexico Tighten emission limits for new gasoline and diesel vehicles. Gasoline: Diesel: Tier I first introduced in 1999 (US-EPA-94). Tier II to be introduced in 2006, under discussion. EPA-98 currently in place. Standards for new diesel vehicles under discussion. Key Issue Is Fuel Quality - Sulfur Two Workshops Have Been Held & Major Press Event in June

53 ULSF introduction agreement: SEMARNAT-SENER-PEMEX REFINACIÓN Average/Maximum Sulfur content in fuel, parts per million weight 2003 Pemex Premium Máx. 250/300(1) 30/80(2) 500 Máx. Pemex Magna MCMA 30/80(3) 1000 Máx. Pemex Magna R.C. 300/500 (4) 30/80(3) 500 Máx. Pemex Diesel 300(5) Máx. 15 Máx.(3) Notas: (1) January,2004 (2) January, 2006 (3) Septembe,r 2008 (4) January, 2005 (5) January,

54 Africa 50% of Gasoline Now Lead Free Most Countries Committed by 2005/6 Sulfur Discussion Beginning TUNISIA MOROCCO LIBYA ALGERIA EGYPT WESTERN SAHARA MAURITANIA SENEGAL THE GAMBIA GUINEA-BISSAU MALI NIGER ERITREA CHAD SUDAN DJIBOUTI BURKINA GUINEA SIERRA-LEONE LIBERIA TOGO NIGERIA ETHIOPIA COTE BENIN D'IVOIRE GHANA CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC CAMEROON SOMALIA UGANDA EQUATORIAL GUINEA GABON KENYA CONGO RWANDA BURUNDI ZAIRE ANGOLA TANZANIA ANGOLA ZAMBIA MALAWI ZIMBABWE NAMIBIA MOZAMBIQUE BOTSWANA SWAZILAND SOUTH AFRICA LESOTHO MADAGASCAR

55 South Korea Vehicle Standards Fuels Gasoline Vehicles ULEV by 2006 Diesel Vehicles Euro 4 by % Tighter by 2010 Diesel S from 430 to 30 by 2006 Gasoline S from 130 to 50 by 2006 Cl ean Vehi c l ei nc ent i v es (50-75% Lower) Mandatory For Public Agencies Economic Incentives For Others

56 Taiwan Starting January 2004, EU Diesel Car Standards Will Be Deemed Equivalent To Taiwan Light Duty Standards On January 2007, US 2004 HD & US Tier 2 Light Duty Standards Apply; EU Heavy Duty Standards Deemed Equivalent Gasoline S From 180 to 50 & Diesel S from 350 to 50 From January 1, 2007

57 What About I/M in Developing Countries? Mexico City India China Brazil

58 Summary and Conclusions While technologies are advancing rapidly, no country or region has yet adopted the state of the art requirements for both conventional and greenhouse gases The EU, Japan and perhaps California could be on track for both groups of pollutants by the end of this decade Developing Countries Accelerating Adoption of State of the Art Controls Low Sulfur Fuels I/M Efforts Underway in Several Countries Sustained Efforts Are Needed To Reduce Conventional & GHG Emissions In Absolute Terms Aircraft and Marine Emissions Are Not Being Adequately Addressed Anywhere and Appear Increasingly Significant

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