OIL & GAS. Rationale for report : Thematic Research
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1 OIL & GAS Sector Report 4 April 2014 Potentially 6 bidders for Bardegg 2-Baronia CPP Alex Goh alexgoh@ambankgroup.com Investment Highlights Rationale for report : Thematic Research (OVERWEIGHT) Upstream has reported today that there are potentially six bidders for the over US$1.5bil (RM5bil) turnkey engineering, procurement, construction, installation and commissioning (EPCIC) central processing platform (CPP) of the integrated Bardegg 2 and Baronia enhanced oil recovery (EOR) project off Sarawak. As expected, Malaysia Marine Heavy Engineering Holdings (MMHE) has teamed up for this tender with Technip of France, which has a equity stake of 8% in MMHE; they are joint-developers of key past projects and are set to battle it out for the first contract on offer from Petronas Carigali this year. Likewise, TH Heavy Engineering (THHE) has partnered with McDermott, which has a 30% stake in THHE s Pulau Indah fabrication yard while THHE has a 30% stake in its heavy-lift derrick lay barge DB30. SapuraKencana is speculated to be partnering Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering or Hyundai Heavy Industries to enhance its chances of success. But Upstream had earlier indicated that Daewoo and Hyundai Heavy Industries may be bidding by themselves without any partnership. A sixth bid was put forward by China s Offshore Oil Engineering Company and the UK-listed Petrofac. Samsung Heavy Industries, Sembcorp Marine, and Abu Dhabi s National Petroleum Construction Company have withdrawn from the tender due to project scheduling and currency exchange issues. Hence, the deadline for the bid submissions has been slightly postponed to later this month. Petronas initially cast a wide net by inviting at least 11 local and regional yard operators to tender for the EPCIC of the CPP which will be bridge-linked to the existing Baronia gas compression platform. The contest had earlier attracted interest from 6 solo or joint contenders. The CPP for the Bardegg 2 and Baronia EOR project comes with 13,000 tonnes of topsides and an eight-legged 6,800-tonne jacket. The CPP contract, which is expected to be awarded in mid-2014, involves delivery by early The overall development also includes 2 wellhead platforms for the Baronia and Tukau Timur fields. The EPCIC contract, valued at US$100mil, for the pair of wellhead platforms are being tendered out regionally and could attract 9 bids from licensed Petronas fabricators and PetroVietnam Technical Services Corp. First gas from the integrated project is targeted for October We remain positive on the sector as the roll-outs of Malaysia s multiple EOR and increasingly complex projects together with the commencement of the construction of the Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development (RAPID) in Pengerang, Johor will continue to underpin the upward re-rating cycle. Hence, we maintain our OVERWEIGHT call on the sector with our BUY calls for SapuraKencana Petroleum, MMHE, Bumi Armada, Yinson Holdings and Alam Resources. Our HOLD recommendations are Petronas Gas and Dialog Group. TABLE 1 : SECTOR VALUATION MATRIX Market Fair EV/ PE Div yield ROE Stocks Call capitalisation value EBITDA CY14F CY15F CY14F CY15F FY14F P/BV RMmil RM/share x x x % % % x Alam Resources BUY 1, Boustead Heav y Industries Corp HOLD Bumi Armada BUY 11, (93.2) Dialog Group HOLD 9, MMHE BUY 6, Petronas Gas HOLD 49, SapuraKencana Petroleum BUY 28, Yinson Holdings BUY 2, Source: AmResearch PP 12246/05/2013 (032379)
2 TABLE 2 : UPCOMING OIL & GAS PROJECTS EPCIC jobs Location Scope of works RMmil Likely bidders Upstream Ex x on-mobil's enhanced oil recov ery Rejuv enation of Tapis, Telok, Seligi, Guntong, Semangkok, Irong Barat, Tabu and Palas oilfiields off Peninsula, Sabah Central processing platforms, gas compression sy stems, process equipment, MOPU, tender rigs, offshore v essels. 10,000 MMHE, SapuraKencana, Wah & Saraw ak. Carigali-Hess' North Malay gas project- fast track basis North Malay basin (Blocks PM301 and PM302), near JDA Central processing plafform, 8 w ell head platforms, 200km pipeline 16,000 MMHE, SapuraKencana, Wah Shell's deepw ater Malikai project Malikai field, off Sabah Fabrication of tension leg platform, installation of pipelines and facilities 5,000 MMHE, SapuraKencana, Wah Petrronas Carigali's EOR projects Dulang, Semarang, Bokor 3 Central Processing Platforms for enhanced oil recov ery. 5,000 MMHE, SapuraKencana, Wah Petronas' 1mil tonne FLNG Kimanis gas field 1st floating liquiefied natural gas carrier 6,000 Technip-Daew oo, MMHE Murphy Oil, 1.5mil tonne FLNG Rotan, off Sabah 2nd floating liquiefied natural gas carrier 9,000 JGC Corp, Toyo Engineering Shell Malay sia's EOR projects Baram Delta, off Saraw ak and North Sabah Enhanced oil recov ery proejcts 38,000 MMHE, SapuraKencana, Wah 25 marginal field projects Peninsula, Sabah & Saraw ak New risk-sharing contract from Petronas. 52,500 SapuraKencana,Dialog Group, Petra Energy, Scomi Marine, Puncak Niaga, UMW Oil & Gas, Bumi Armada Petronas' umbrella tender for shallow w ater jobs Peninsula, Sabah & Saraw ak 5-y ear Hook-up & Commissioning, maintenance contracts. 10,000 SapuraKencana, Day ang, Alam, Perdana Petroleum Downstream Petronas' Refinery & Petrochemical Integrated Development and other mutlinationals Tank Terminal Projects Pengerang, Johor Refinery, petrochemical projects 120,000 Dialog, SapuraKencana, Muhibbah Engineering, Ranhill, KNM Southern Johor- Pengerang, Tanjung Bin, Tank terminals for crude oil, 10,000 Dialog, MMC, Benalec, Tanjung Langsat petrochemicals, LNG. Muhibbah Engineering, Ranhill LNG Regassification plants Malacca, Lahad Datu, Pengerang, Lumut LNG Regassification plants 12,000 Dialog, Muhibbah Engineering, Ranhill Malay sia LNG Train 9 Bintulu, Saraw ak 3.6 mil tonne increase to MLNG's liquefaction facilities 10,000 JGC Corporation, Chiyoda- Saipem Petronas' Samur ammonia/urea plant Sipitang, Sabah Fertilizer plant 4,500 Muhibbah Engineering, Ranhill Total 308,000 Source: AmResearch, various sources AmResearch Sdn Bhd 2
3 CHART 1 : PETRONAS CAPEX RMbil FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013 Others Exploration & production Source: Petronas CHART 2 : OIL & GAS NEW ORDERS FOR MALAYSIAN PLAYERS RMmil 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000-3,497 2,213 1,870 4,501 3, ,759 1, ,585 4,364 1,268 4,303 1,920 7, ,749 1, ,497 8,121 1QFY08 4QFY08 3QFY09 2QFY10 1QFY11 4QFY11 3QFY12 2QFY13 1,624 12,100 Source: Petronas AmResearch Sdn Bhd 3
4 PICTURE 1 : SK316 CPP, BRIDGE AND WELL-HEAD PLATFORM Source: MMHE AmResearch Sdn Bhd 4
5 Published by AmResearch Sdn Bhd ( P) (A member of the AmInvestment Bank Group) 15t h F l oor B a ng un an A m B a nk Gr ou p 55 Jalan Raja Chulan Kuala Lumpur Tel: ( 03) ( re sea rc h) F a x: ( 03) Printed by AmResearch Sdn Bhd ( P) (A member of the AmInvestment Bank Group) 15t h F l oor B a ng un an A m B a nk Gr ou p 55 Jalan Raja Chulan Kuala Lumpur Tel: ( 03) ( re sea rc h) F a x: ( 03) The information and opinions in this report were prepared by AmResearch Sdn Bhd. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. The directors and employees of AmResearch Sdn Bhd may from time to time have a position in or with the securities mentioned herein. Members of the AmInvestment Group and their affiliates may provide services to any company and affiliates of such companies whose securities are mentioned herein. The information herein was obtained or derived from sources that we believe are reliable, but while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that stated facts are accurate and opinions fair and reasonable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise from the use of this report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice. For AmResearch Sdn Bhd Benny Chew Managing Director AmResearch Sdn Bhd 5
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