SECTION. Oil data: downstream

Transcription

1 SECTION 4 Oil data: downstream

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3 Feature Box: Section 4 Downstream dynamics in Asia and their importance to the oil market Global oil demand continued to grow in 216 at a slower rate at 1.5 per cent as compared to the growth in 215 of around 1.8 per cent. Geographically, Asia and Pacific remained the main source of oil demand growth in 216 with India, China and South Korea being the main drivers. Western Europe, Eastern Europe as well as Eurasia have also registered substantial growth in 216. North America and Middle East oil demand growth slowed down slightly while Latin American oil demand continued to decline. Considering the petroleum derivatives, the light end of the barrel gasoline, LPG and jet/kerosene supported global oil demand growth while fuel oil remained weak. In Asia and Pacific, particularly, oil demand remained bullish, with 216 gasoline demand in Asia and Pacific increasing by more than six per cent, kerosene by roughly five per cent and other petroleum products including LPG and naphtha increased by approximately three per cent while fuel oil demand shrank by almost three per cent compared to 215. India, China and South Korea continued to grow in a wide range of petroleum products. Petroleum demand in India and South Korea increased by eight per cent and six per cent, respectively, in 216 compared to 215, while it also increased in China, Thailand, New Zealand, to name a few countries. As result of strong world oil demand growth in 216, world refining capacity also increased but at a slower rate compared to previous years. Despite the deceleration of global downstream activities in 216, world refining capacity inched up by almost.5m b/cd as compared to 215. The 216 global refining capacity gains have mainly originated from North America and the Middle East. North American refining capacity increased, particularly in the United States where it rose by.3m b/cd. The Middle East also registered a growth of.3m b/cd of condensate splitters. Asian and Pacific refinery capacity growth slowed down strongly in 216, despite increases in South Korea and in China, which were partly offset by declines in Japan. Western Europe refining capacity declined again in 216 as result of continuing closures in France and the UK. Global refinery throughput slowed down this year compared to last year as a result of gains in oil prices and high global oil stocks. Asia and Pacific and the Middle East registered a strong growth in throughput in 216. All other regions weakened in 216 except North America which experienced small growth. Global refinery output followed the same trend as global refinery throughput with Asia and Pacific recording healthy gains, North America registered small gains while other regions registered declines. Oil demand correlates highly with refinery throughput. Considering the period 2 to 216, the explained variance of the assumed linear relationship between the two variables (R 2 ) 1 exceeds 99 per cent for total world, as well as for Asia and Pacific, while it reaches 8 per cent for the remaining of the regions. For total world and Asia and Pacific, this relationship is almost linear, with similar simple regression coefficients in both models, while this structure weakens for other world regions. These results are shown in the accompanying graph, which highlights the importance of Asia and Pacific in the oil market, particularly in the downstream Oil demand and refinery throughput (m b/d) Oil demand 2 R² =.99 R² =.8 R² =.99 Throughput World Asia All other regions 1. The square of the correlation coefficient. 37

4 Table 4.1 Refinery capacity in OPEC Members by company and location (1, b/cd) Location Algeria Sonatrach Skikda Skikda (condensate) Arzew Alger Hassi Messaoud Adrar Angola Fina Petroleos de Angola Luanda Ecuador Petroindustrial Esmeraldas Santa Elens Shushufindi Repsol YPF Orellana Andes Petroleum Sucumbios Petroproduccion El Oro nap Sucumbios Lago Agrio Gabon Total & Shell Port Gentil IR Iran 1,715. 1,715. 1,781. 1,781. 1,91. NIOC Abadan Isfahan Bandar Abbas Tehran Arak Tabriz Shiraz Lavan Kermanshah Bandar Abbas nap nap nap nap 12. Iraq INOC Baiji Basrah Daura Kirkuk Sainia Najaf Samawa Nasiria Missan Diwania Haditha Qaiarah Kask

5 Table 4.1 Refinery capacity in OPEC Members by company and location (1, b/cd) Location Kuwait KNPC Mina Al-Ahmadi Mina Abdullah Shuaiba Libya NOC Ras Lanuf Zawia Tobruk Sarir Marsa El-Brega Nigeria PHRC New Port Harcourt WRPC Warri KRPC Kaduna PHRC Old Port Harcourt NDPR Rivers State Qatar Qatar Petroleum Ras Laffan condensate Qatar Petroleum Mesaieed refinery & condensate Takreer Ras Laffan condensate II nap nap nap nap 146. Saudi Arabia 2,17. 2,57. 2,899. 2,899. 2,899. Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura Yanbu Riyadh Jeddah Saudi Aramco & Mobil Samref Saudi Aramco & Petrola Rabigh Saudi Aramco & Total Satorp nap Saudi Aramco Yasref nap nap Saudi Aramco & Shell Sasref United Arab Emirates ,124. 1,124. ADNOC Al-Ruwais Emirate Oil Jebel Ali ADNOC Umm Al-Narr METRO Oil Fujairah Venezuela 1,872. 1,855. 1,89.6 1,89.6 1,89.6 PDVSA Amuay Cardon Puerto La Cruz El Palito San Roque Bajo Grande Petropiar Petromonagas Petrocedeno Petrozuata OPEC 1,13.3 1, , , ,836.2 Notes: 1. Upgrader refinery capacity. 39

6 Table 4.2 Charge refinery capacity in OPEC Members, 216 (1, b/cd) Vacuum distillation Thermal operations Catalytic cracking Catalytic reforming Catalytic hydrocracking 1 Catalytic hydrotreating Algeria Angola Ecuador Gabon IR Iran Iraq Kuwait Libya Nigeria Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Venezuela OPEC 2, ,6.4 1,32.1 3,159.6 Notes: 1. Includes GTL cracker capacities. Table 4.3 World refinery capacity by country (1, b/cd) change North America 19, , , ,23.7 2, Canada 2,49.8 1, , , ,965.7 United States 17, , , ,58. 18, Latin America 8, , , , ,669.1 Argentina Brazil 2,. 2,93. 2,235. 2, ,277.8 Colombia Ecuador Mexico 1,69. 1,69. 1,69. 1,69. 1,69. Curaçao Trinidad & Tobago Venezuela 1 1,872. 1,855. 1,89.6 1,89.6 1,89.6 Others 1, ,86.3 1,86.3 1,86.3 1,86.3 Eastern Europe and Eurasia 1, , , , , Azerbaijan Belarus Kazakhstan Poland Romania

7 Table 4.3 World refinery capacity by country (1, b/cd) change Eastern Europe and Eurasia (cont d) Russia 5,754. 5,929. 6,4. 6,54. 6, Ukraine Others 1, , , , ,261.8 Western Europe 14, , , , , Belgium France 1, ,58.4 1,46. 1,46. 1, Germany 2,247. 2,247. 2,188. 2,188. 2,188. Italy 2, , ,46. 2,46. 2,46. Netherlands 1, , , , ,196.6 Spain 1, , , , ,427.5 United Kingdom 1, , ,42. 1,42. 1, Others 3, , , , ,512.7 Middle East 7, ,16.3 8, ,15.3 9, IR Iran 1,715. 1,715. 1,781. 1,781. 1, Iraq Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia 2,17. 2,57. 2,899. 2,899. 2,899. United Arab Emirates ,124. 1,124. Others 1, , , , ,182.3 Africa 3,413. 3, , , ,491.8 Algeria Angola Egypt South Africa Gabon Libya Nigeria Others Asia and Pacific 3, , ,5.5 31, , Australia China 11, , , , , India 4, ,319. 4,319. 4,619. 4,619. Indonesia 1,157. 1,157. 1,157. 1,157. 1,157. Japan 4, , , , , South Korea 2,949. 2,949. 3,9. 3,59. 3, Singapore 1,422. 1,414. 1,514. 1,514. 1,514. Others 4,39.9 4,46.9 4, , ,181.4 Total world 94, , , , , of which OPEC 1,13.3 1, , , , OPEC percentage OECD 45, , , , , FSU 8, ,77.4 8, , , Notes: 1. Includes upgrader capacity. 41

8 Table 4.4 World refinery throughput by country (1, b/d) % change North America 16, , , , , Canada 1,868. 1,843. 1,841. 1,839. 1, United States 14, , , , , Latin America 6, , ,49.4 6, , Argentina Brazil 1,932. 2,55.3 2,16.9 1,984. 1, Colombia Ecuador Mexico 1,26.5 1, , , Curaçao Trinidad & Tobago Venezuela 1, , ,351. 1, , Others 1, Eastern Europe and Eurasia 7, , , , , Azerbaijan Belarus Kazakhstan Poland Romania Russia 5, ,59.9 5, , , Ukraine Others Western Europe 11, , , , , Belgium France 1, , , , , Germany 1,94.2 1, , , , Italy 1, ,27.9 1,22.3 1,346. 1, Netherlands 1, ,3.7 1,62.1 1, Spain 1, , , , ,296.1 United Kingdom 1, , , , , Others 2,61.4 2, ,566. 2, , Middle East 6, ,64.6 6, ,266. 7, IR Iran 1,717. 1,817. 1,817. 1,817. 1, Iraq Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia 1, , ,. 2,18.5 2, United Arab Emirates , Others Africa 2, , ,3.6 2,16.3 2, Algeria Angola Egypt South Africa Gabon Libya Nigeria Others Asia and Pacific 25, , , , , Australia China 9,512. 9,782. 1, ,1. 11, India 4,3.3 4, , ,561. 4, Indonesia Japan 3, , , , , South Korea 2, ,484. 2,516. 2,784. 2, Singapore ,277. 1,262. 1,21. 1, Others 3, ,25.6 3, , , Total world 77, , , , , of which OPEC 8,173. 8,14.2 8, , , OPEC percentage OECD 37,75. 36, , , ,8.7 FSU 6, , , , ,

9 Table 4.5 Output of petroleum products in OPEC Members (1, b/d) % change Algeria Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others Angola Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others Ecuador Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others Gabon Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others IR Iran 1, , , , , Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others Iraq Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others Kuwait 1, , Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others Libya Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others

10 Table 4.5 Output of petroleum products in OPEC Members (1, b/d) % change Nigeria Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others ,69.5 Qatar Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others Saudi Arabia 1, , ,13.5 2,48.5 2, Gasoline Kerosene Distillates , Residuals Others United Arab Emirates , Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others Venezuela 1,232. 1, , , Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others OPEC 8,76.4 8, ,89.6 9, , Gasoline 1,499. 1, , , , Kerosene ,15.5 1, Distillates 2, , , ,57.9 2, Residuals 2,14.7 2,68.6 1, , , Others 2,96.7 2,98.9 2, , , Notes: Data may include products from GTLs and condensate units. 44

11 Table 4.6 World output of petroleum products by country (1, b/d) % change North America 2, , , , , Canada 2,99. 2,7.6 2,52.3 2,2.5 2,33..6 United States 18, ,16. 19, ,886. 2, Latin America 7, , ,47.2 6, , Argentina Brazil 2,21.8 2, , ,41.2 1, Colombia Ecuador Mexico 1, , , , , Curaçao Trinidad & Tobago Venezuela 1,232. 1, , , Others 1, Eastern Europe and Eurasia 9,68.9 9, ,37.3 9, , Azerbaijan Belarus Kazakhstan Poland Romania Russia 6, , , ,437. 6, Ukraine Others Western Europe 12, , , , , Belgium France 1, ,26.6 1, ,27.5 1, Germany 2,12.1 2, , , , Italy 1,67.2 1,495. 1,48.3 1, , Netherlands 1,28.8 1, , , , Spain 1, , , , , United Kingdom 1, ,41.5 1, ,341. 1, Others 2, , , , , Middle East 7, , , ,99.6 8, IR Iran 1, , , , , Iraq Kuwait 1, , Qatar Saudi Arabia 1, , ,13.5 2,48.5 2, United Arab Emirates , Others Africa 2, , , , , Algeria Angola Egypt South Africa Gabon Libya Nigeria Others Asia and Pacific 26, , , , , Australia China 1, , , , , India 4,96.6 4, , , , Indonesia ,.3 3. Japan 3, ,669. 3, ,58.8 3,51.5 South Korea 2, , , ,6.2 3, Singapore 1,99.6 1,44.5 1,31.9 1,1. 1, Others 3,15. 3,93.2 3,76. 3, , Total world 85, , , , , of which OPEC 8,76.4 8, ,89.6 9, , OPEC percentage OECD 43, , , , , FSU 7,79.7 7,85.8 7, , , Notes: Data may include products from GTL and condensate units. 45

12 Table 4.7 Oil demand by main petroleum product in OPEC Members (1, b/d) % change Algeria Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others Angola Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others Ecuador Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others Gabon Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others IR Iran 1, , , , , Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others Iraq Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others Kuwait Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others

13 Table 4.7 Oil demand by main petroleum product in OPEC Members (1, b/d) % change Libya Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others Nigeria Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others Qatar Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others Saudi Arabia 2, ,994. 3, , , Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others 1, , , , , United Arab Emirates Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others Venezuela Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others OPEC 8, , , , , Gasoline 2,1.7 2,96. 2, , , Kerosene Distillates 2,33.6 2, , ,46.9 2, Residuals 1,39.8 1, , , , Others 2, ,41.3 2,531. 2, ,

14 Table 4.8 World oil demand by country (1, b/d) % change North America 2, , , , , Canada 2,47.5 2,455. 2,46.6 2,46. 2, United States 18, , , , , Others Latin America 9,94.3 9, ,35.1 9,17.5 9, Argentina Brazil 2, ,97.5 3, , , Colombia Ecuador Mexico 2,12.2 2,9.6 2,39.8 2,6.7 1, Venezuela Others 2,3.1 2,17.2 2,43.7 2,11.1 2, Eastern Europe and Eurasia 5,73.2 5, ,93.3 5, , Czech Republic Hungary Kazakhstan Poland Romania Russia 3, , ,46.1 3, , Slovakia Ukraine Others Western Europe 13, , , , , France 1, , , ,69.7 1, Germany 2, , , , , Italy 1,37.3 1, , , , Netherlands Spain 1,3.9 1,28.4 1, , , United Kingdom 1, , , , , Others 3, , ,859. 4,37.2 4, Middle East 7, ,79.9 7, , ,195.8 IR Iran 1, , , , , Iraq Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia 2, ,994. 3, , , Syrian Arab Republic United Arab Emirates Others Africa 3, , ,94.2 3,992. 4, Algeria Angola Egypt Gabon Libya Nigeria South Africa Tunisia Others 1,77.3 1,14.6 1, , , Asia and Pacific 29, ,15.2 3, , , Australia 1,94.9 1,12.8 1, , , China 9,793. 1, , , , India 3, , , ,5.9 4, Indonesia 1,58.7 1,64.9 1, , , Japan 4,63.2 4,54.1 4, ,12.2 3, New Zealand South Korea 2, , , ,46.8 2, Thailand 1, , ,33.9 1, , Others 4, , ,12.6 5,24.1 5, Total world 89, , , , , of which OPEC 8, , , , , OPEC percentage OECD 45, , , , , FSU 4, ,54. 4,641. 4, ,

15 12 Graph 4.1 World refinery capacity (m b/cd) % 14 North America Latin America Eastern Europe & Eurasia Western Europe Middle East Africa Asia and Pacific OPEC share (%) North America Latin America Eastern Europe & Eurasia Western Europe Middle East Africa Asia and Pacific OPEC share (%) Graph 4.2 World output of petroleum products (m b/d) % Algeria Angola Ecuador Gabon IR Iran Iraq Kuwait Libya Nigeria Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Venezuela Graph 4.3 OPEC output of refined petroleum products (m b/d)

16 Table 4.9 World oil demand by main petroleum product and region (1, b/d) % change North America 2, , , , , Gasoline 9,72.4 9, , ,3.1 1, Kerosene 1, , , , , Distillates 4,548. 4,535. 4, , , Residuals Others 4, ,12.4 4, , , Latin America 9,94.3 9, ,35.1 9,17.5 9, Gasoline 2, , , , , Kerosene Distillates 2, , , ,84.3 2, Residuals 1,39.4 1, Others 2, ,537. 2, ,39. 2, Eastern Europe and Eurasia 5,73.2 5, ,93.3 5, , Gasoline 1, , ,372. 1, , Kerosene Distillates 1, , , , , Residuals Others 1,99.6 2,31.8 1, , ,2..1 Western Europe 13, , , , , Gasoline 1, , ,773. 1,784. 1, Kerosene 1,23.6 1, , , , Distillates 5, , , , , Residuals 1, , Others 3, ,35.5 3, , , Middle East 7, ,79.9 7, , ,195.8 Gasoline 1, , , ,623. 1, Kerosene Distillates 2, , , , , Residuals 1,381. 1, , , , Others 2,13. 2,118. 2, , , Africa 3, , ,94.2 3,992. 4, Gasoline ,11.3 1,85.2 1, , Kerosene Distillates 1,399. 1, ,58.2 1, , Residuals Others

17 Table 4.9 World oil demand by main petroleum product and region (1, b/d) % change Asia and Pacific 29, ,15.2 3, , , Gasoline 5, , , , , Kerosene 2,65.8 2,15.9 2, , , Distillates 8, ,686. 8, ,66.4 9, Residuals 2, ,65.6 2,52.5 2, , Others 1,761. 1, , , , Total world 89, , , , , Gasoline 23, , ,7.6 24, , Kerosene 6, , , , , Distillates 26, , , , , Residuals 7,75.5 7, ,12.1 6, , Others 25, , , , , of which OPEC 8, , , , , Gasoline 2,1.7 2,96. 2, , , Kerosene Distillates 2,33.6 2, , ,46.9 2, Residuals 1,39.8 1, , , , Others 2, ,41.3 2,531. 2, , OECD 45, , , , , Gasoline 14, , , , , Kerosene 3, ,81.3 3, ,24.6 4, Distillates 12, , ,37. 13, , Residuals 2, , , ,4.3 2, Others 12, , , , , FSU 4, ,54. 4,641. 4, , Gasoline 1, , , ,152. 1, Kerosene Distillates 1,2. 1,43.5 1,244. 1, , Residuals Others 1, , ,61.3 1,595. 1,

18 Graph 4.4 World oil demand (m b/d) % North America Latin America Eastern Europe & Eurasia Western Europe Middle East Africa Asia and Pacific OPEC share (%) Graph 4.5 OPEC Members oil demand (m b/d) Algeria Angola Ecuador Gabon IR Iran Iraq Kuwait Libya Nigeria Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Venezuela Graph 4.6 World oil demand by main petroleum product (m b/d) Gasoline Kerosene Distillates Residuals Others 52