Socionomic Theory: an Alternative to EMH and a Foundation for Technical Analysis
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1 Socionomic Theory: an Alternative to EMH and a Foundation for Technical Analysis Robert R. Prechter 2014 IFTA Conference London, England October 11, 2014
2 EMH is elegant and internally consistent. It is not externally consistent.
3 Essence of EMH: 1) External cause 2) Rational reaction
4 Do interest rates move the stock market?
5 Robert Prechter Figure 4
6 Robert Prechter Figure 5
7 Robert Prechter Figure 6
8 Robert Prechter Figure 7
9 Does war affect the stock market?
10 Robert Prechter Figure 9
11 Robert Prechter Figure 10
12 Robert Prechter Figure 11
13 Robert Prechter Figure 12
14 What about peaceful times?
15 Robert Prechter Figure 14
16 Robert Prechter Figure 15
17 Do political parties affect the stock market?
18 Since 1857, the stock market's average annual gain has been approximately equal under Democrat and Republican presidents Average annual return under Democrat presidents: 7.2% Average annual return under Republican presidents: 5.9% With omitted, Republican average is 7.7% Robert Prechter Figure 17
19 What about oil shocks?
20 Robert Prechter Figure 19
21 Robert Prechter Figure 20
22 Robert Prechter Figure 21
23 What about terrorist attacks?
24 Robert Prechter Figure 23
25 Robert Prechter Figure 24
26 Does inflation make gold go up?
27 Robert Prechter Figure 26
28 Robert Prechter Figure 27
29 Does QE make gold go up?
30 Robert Prechter Figure 29
31 Robert Prechter Figure 30
32 Robert Prechter Figure 31
33 Conclusion: Exogenous factors do not regulate financial markets. Data from the real world are inconsistent with EMH s causal claim.
34 Socionomics
35 Robert Prechter Figure 34
36 Social mood is an unconsciously shared motivational impulse arising from social interaction independently from events Robert Prechter Figure 35
37 Robert Prechter Figure 36
38 The stock market is a meter of social mood.
39 Robert Prechter Figure 38
40 Robert Prechter Figure 39
41 Robert Prechter Figure 40
42 Robert Prechter Figure 41
43 Robert Prechter Figure 42
44 Robert Prechter Figure 43
45 Robert Prechter Figure 44
46 Robert Prechter Figure 45
47 posted at ssrn.com Robert Prechter Figure 46
48 Robert Prechter Figure 47
49 Robert Prechter Figure 48
50 In none of these cases does either variable control the other. A hidden variable social mood controls both.
51 The character of lagging social actions is highly predictable. News doesn t predict the stock market; the stock market predicts the news.
52 Robert Prechter Figure 51
53 The Socionomist
54 Socionomic Theory of Finance
55 The Price/Demand Dichotomy in Economic vs. Financial Markets
56 Robert Prechter Figure 55
57 Robert Prechter Figure 56
58 Robert Prechter Figure 57
59 Robert Prechter Figure 58
60 Robert Prechter Figure 59
61 Robert Prechter Figure 60
62 The Equilibrium/Dynamism Dichotomy in Economic vs. Financial Markets
63 Robert Prechter Figure 62
64 In economics, relative pricing also seeks equilibrium and is fairly stable. One price is a benchmark for another.
65 In the stock market, there are no useful benchmarks of value.
66 Robert Prechter Figure 65
67 Robert Prechter Figure 66
68 Robert Prechter Figure 67
69 Robert Prechter Figure 68
70 Robert Prechter Figure 69
71 The Elliott Wave Model of Financial Price Fluctuation Robert Prechter Figure 70
72 Robert Prechter Figure 71
73 Robert Prechter Figure 72
74 How the Elliott wave model relates to bubble theories.
75 Robert Prechter Figure 74
76 Robert Prechter Figure 75
77 Robert Prechter Figure 76
78 Herding
79 Robert Prechter Figure 78
80 Robert Prechter Figure 79
81 Robert Prechter Figure 80
82 The only sub-group that does not consistently herd is the Commercials.
83 The herding impulse is a blunt tool of survival, maladapted to finance. Bubbles are not rational. Crowds are not wise Robert Prechter Figure 82
84 Robert Prechter Figure 83
85 Robert Prechter Figure 84
86 Robert Prechter Figure 85
87 Robert Prechter Figure 86
88 EMH asserts that economic laws rule finance. STF proposes that financial laws govern finance.
89 Contrasting Models of Finance Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) 1. Objective, conscious, rational decisions to maximize utility determine financial values. 2. Financial markets tend toward equilibrium and revert to the mean. 3. Investors in financial markets typically use information to reason. 4. Investors decisions are based on knowledge and certainty. 5. Exogenous variables determine most investment decisions. 6. Financial prices derive from individual decisions about value. 7. Financial price changes are essentially random. 8. Financial prices are unpredictable; the character of news is unpredictable. 9. Changing events presage changes in the values of associated financial instruments. Socionomic Theory of Finance (STF) 1. Subjective, unconscious, prerational impulses to herd determine financial values. 2. Financial markets are dynamic and do not revert to anything. 3. Investors in financial markets typically use information to rationalize mood-induced imperatives. 4. Investors decisions are fraught with ignorance and uncertainty. 5. Endogenous social processes determine most investment decisions. 6. Financial prices derive from trends in social mood. 7. Financial prices adhere to an organizing principle at the aggregate level. 8. Financial prices are probabilistically predictable; so is the character of news. 9. Changing values of financial instruments presage changes in associated events. 10. Economic principles govern finance. 10. Socionomic principles govern finance Robert Prechter Figure 88
90 STF is elegant and internally consistent. It is also externally consistent.
91 Most fundamentals are results, not causes. Mood change is causal. It is also patterned, providing a basis for technical analysis.
92 Socionomics.net
93 Slides available at:
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