2016 Summit County Workforce Housing Demand Update EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Transcription

1 2016 Summit County Workforce Housing Demand Update EXECUTIVE SUMMARY August 2016 PhotobyCarlScofield Prepared by: Wendy Sullivan, WSW Consulting San Anselmo, CA Melanie Rees, Rees Consulting, Inc. Crested Butte, CO

2 EXECUTIVESUMMARY:SummitCounty2016HousingDemandUpdate,August2016 Executive)Summary) Thisexecutivesummarypresentstheprimaryfindingsfromthe2016SummitCounty HousingDemandUpdate.Themainreportcanbereferencedformoredetail. The2016SummitCountyHousingDemandUpdateupdatestheworkforcehousing needsestimatedinthe2013summitcountyhousingneedsassessment.thestudy identifiesbybasin: HowmanyownershipandrentalhousingunitsareneededtohousetheSummit Countyworkforcepresentlyandthrough2020;and WhichAMIlevelsshouldbetargetedbyaffordableworkforceunits. Asinthe2013study,workforcehousingneedestimatesareestimatedbasedon average&annual&employmentanddonotrepresentpeakseasonneedsforseasonal workersresidingintheareaforonlyafewmonthsduringtheyear. Housing Market Changes Alltrendssincethe2013HousingNeedsAssessmentpointtodecreasedaffordabilityof homesfortheworkforceandascarcesupplyofhousing. Housinghasincreasedinprice: Theaveragesalepriceofhomeshasincreasedanaverageof3.8%peryearsince 2012.Singlefamilyhomessoldin2015averagedover$800,000and condominiumsaveragedabout$400,000. Markethomesarenowmostlypricedforhouseholdsearningover150%AMI, comparedto120%amiin2012. Rentsincreasedatleast10%in2015alone.Theaveragerentofhomesavailable attheendoftheskiseasonthisyear$1,898)wasaffordableforahousehold earningover110%ami.in2013,marketrentswereaffordableatabout80% AMI. WSWConsulting;ReesConsulting,Inc. 1

3 EXECUTIVESUMMARY:SummitCounty2016HousingDemandUpdate,August2016 Housingsupplyhasdecreased: Theinventoryofhomescurrentlyforsaleis60%lowerthaninJanuary2013. Inventoryisparticularlylowforhomespricedunder$400,000150%AMI), comprisingjustovera1\monthsupplybasedonsalesvolumesin2015. Rentalvacancyrateswerebelow2%in2012andhavesincedecreased. Somehouseholdsthatcouldaffordmarket\ratehomesin2012nolongercan: Ahouseholdearning100%AMIcouldaffordtopay$317,000forahomein2012 comparedto$271,300today.thisisdueto: o Aslightriseininterestratessince2012.A0.5%riseininterestrate decreasestheaffordablepurchasepriceforahouseholdbyabout5%. o AdeclineintheHUD\calculatedAreaMedianIncomeAMI)forSummit Countyin2016$82,300)comparedto2012$89,800). Economy Trendsintheeconomyshowcontinuedjobgrowthandverylowunemployment, makingitincreasinglydifficulttofilljobswithlocalworkers. Jobgrowthisslowerthanpredictedin2012,butstillsignificant: Itwasestimatedinthe2013housingstudythatbetween2,140and3,600jobs wouldbeaddedbetween2012and2016.basedonrevisedstatedemographer estimates,newjobsaddedfellnearthemid\pointofthisrange2,755newjobs). Jobsareprojectedtogrowatamoremodestpaceinthecountythrough2020 addingabout1,800jobs. Unemploymentisverylow: Theunemploymentratefellto2.25%from6%in2012.Becauselocalsarenow mostlyemployed,mostnewjobscreatedin2016through2020willneedtobe filledbyworkersfromoutsideofsummitcountywhomoveintotheareaor commute. Number of Units Needed About1,685unitshousingabout3,035employees 1 needtobebuiltorpreservedforthe localworkforcethatthemarketwillnotprovidethrough2020.&thisnumberrepresents: 1 Theseareemployeesneededtofillnewaverageyear\roundjobsandnotpeakseasonaljobs.Housingfor theseemployeesneedtoaccommodateavarietyofhouseholdsizes,typesandpreferences.the2013 WSWConsulting;ReesConsulting,Inc. 2

4 EXECUTIVESUMMARY:SummitCounty2016HousingDemandUpdate,August2016 Thenumberofhousingunitsneededtocatchuptoworkforcehousingneeds from2012to units),asupdatedfromthe2013housingneeds Assessment.Thisincludesestimatesoftotalhousingneedsin2012through2016 basedonupdatedjobgrowthestimatesandotherfactors1,048units)minus thenumberofworkforcehousingunitspricedunder120%amithathavebeen constructedorapprovedsince2012andthatarependingconstructionby workforcehousingunits);plus Theprojectednumberofunitsthatwillbeneededby2020tokeepupwithjob growth,retiringemployeesandlossofhomestosecondhomeowners1,025 units),utilizingthesameassumptionsfromthe2013study,whereapplicable. Workforce)Housing)Needs)Through)2020:)Summit)County) ) Summit) County) Lower) Snake) River) Ten) Mile) Upper) 2012\2016TotalNeeds* 1, UnitsBuilt/Approved2012to2016+) Catch\Up2016) Keep\Up2016\2020) 1, Total)Workforce)Housing)Needs)) 2016)to)2020)) 1,685) 290) 335) 560) 500) ) ) ) ) ) ) Average)#)of)Employees)per)Household) 1.8) 1.8) 1.8) 1.8) 1.8) #)of)employees)housed)2016)to)2020)) 3,035) 520) 605) 1,010) 900) Note:Differencesareduetorounding. *Updatedfromthe2013HousingNeedsAssessment.Reflectsrevisedjobgrowthestimatesandspansa four\yeartimeframe. Thedistributionofworkforcehousingunitsneededbyownershipandrental,AMI affordabilityandlocationusedthesameassumptionsasthe2013housingneeds Assessment,withonechange.Becausemarketpricesofhomesandrentshave increasedsince2012,workforcehousingprovidedthrough2020shouldnowinclude rentalsupto100%amiabout$1,700fora2+\personhousehold)andownershipupto 150%AMIabout$400,000). SummitCountyHousingNeedsAssessmentprovidesmoredetailonthetypesofhomesneededbythese workers.seeinparticularsection4whatemployeeswant DesignandPricingofWorkforceHousing) andsection8type). WSWConsulting;ReesConsulting,Inc. 3

5 EXECUTIVESUMMARY:SummitCounty2016HousingDemandUpdate,August2016 Workforce)Housing)Gap)by)Own/Rent)and)AMI)by)Basin:)) ) Summit) County) Summit)County,)2016)to)2020) Lower) Snake) River) Ten) Mile) Upper) OWNERSHIP <=60%AMI \80% \100% \120% \150% TOTAL) RENTALS) <=60%AMI \80% \100% TOTAL TOTAL)Gap) 1, Note:Differencesareduetorounding. Byconstructing1,685moreworkforcehousingunitsforemployeesfillingnewjobs,this willallowsummitcountytoaddressbothcurrenthousingneedsandkeepupwith annualaveragejobgrowththrough2020.justasinthe2013needsassessment, 2 this includes: Addressingthedeficiencyinbelow\marketrentalandownershiphousingfor residents.thisdoesnotaddresstheneedforseasonalworkerhousingduring peakperiods; Housingthe5%to10%ofin\commutersthatwouldprefertomovetoSummit County; Housingemployeeshiredtoreplaceretiringworkers; Replacingthelossofresident\ownedhomesthathavebeensoldtosecond homeowners.thisdoesnotincludemakingupforthelossoflong\termrentals totheshort\termrentalmarketduetothecurrentlackofinformationto estimatethisloss; 2 Section7WorkforceHousingCatchUpand5\YearKeepUpNeedsofthe2013SummitCounty WorkforceHousingNeedsAssessmentcanbereferencedformoredetail. WSWConsulting;ReesConsulting,Inc. 4

6 EXECUTIVESUMMARY:SummitCounty2016HousingDemandUpdate,August2016 Housing80%oftheemployeesthatareneededtofillnewjobswithinSummit County thisassumesthat20%ofworkerswillcontinuetoin\commute; 3 and Distributinghousingneedsamongeachbasinbasedonmultiplefactors including:eacharea sshareofjobsinthecounty,whereworkersprefertolive andmaintainingamixofincomeswithineachbasin. 3 About20%ofworkerscommutedinfromresidenceslocatedoutsideofSummitCountyin2012.Because someworkerswillprefercommutingformultiplereasons,thisratiowaskeptconsistentinthe2013 reportandinthecurrentupdate. WSWConsulting;ReesConsulting,Inc. 5