Dr Susan Pond AM FTSE. Sustainable aviation and heavy logistics liquid fuels 11:00 11:15

Transcription

1 Dr Susan Pond AM FTSE Sustainable aviation and heavy logistics liquid fuels 11:00 11:15

2 Global Transport Energy by Source, % fossil sources 60% global oil demand 20 billion barrels 608 barrels/s 23% GHGe 10% 8% 1% 2% 1% Gasoline Diesel Jet 46% Residual LPG/CNG Biofuels 32% Electricity h"p://www3.weforum.org/docs/wef_repoweringtransport_projectwhitepaper_2011.pdf

3 Assessment of OpportuniFes SAF & Heavy LogisFcs Liquid Fuels Criteria Market Need/Leading Edge Customers Score In Australia s NaFonal Interest CompeFFve capacity/capability to build on ComparaFve advantage to exploit Not too late to enter field Evident overseas market need

4 AviaFon Emissions ReducFon Targets Business as usual emissions Aircraft technology (known), operations and infrastructure measures Sustainable Aviation Fuels and additional technology Carbon-neutral growth 2020 Gross emissions trajectory No action Technology Operations Infrastructure CO 2 emissions Sustainable Aviation Fuel and Additional Technology Carbon Neutral Growth 2020 (schematic) -50% by Source: IATA, 2010

5 Shipping Emissions ReducFons - IMO

6 Current & Future Demand in Australia Gigalitres (GL) per annum GL 50 67GL 14GL (20%) Total Other Jet fuel CAGR% ( ) 1.3 (2.3) GL (13%) 18GL (27%) Gasoline (0.3) 30 19GL (37%) GL (37%) 31GL (47%) Diesel

7 Leading Edge Customers in Australia Qantas - 13 April , Jet Fuel, 30% direct OPEX; $4.2 B Commercial flight return Sydney Adelaide Used cooking oil, 50:50 blend Feasibility Study DRET/Qantas/Shell Jetstar 20 April 2012 Commercial flight Melbourne to Hobart Virgin Australia 5% SAF by , Jet Fuel, 30% direct OPEX; $1.2 B Biodiesel in ground transportafon, Brisbane airport May 2012 Tallow/used cooking oil 20:80 blend MOU with Brisbane Airport, SkyNRG, 30 Apr 2013

8 In NaFonal Interest/CompeFFve CapaciFes www. arionproductions.com.au e: t: PO Box 62, Hunters Hill NSW 2110 STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK FOR ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORT FUELS AUSTRALIAN INITIATIVE FOR SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS December 2011 AUSTRALIAN INITIATIVE FOR SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS

9 ComparaFve Advantages to Exploit Source Examples ConsideraGons Oils Oil Seeds (soy, mustard seed, cohon, carinata, pongamia), algae Most expensive to produce, transportable, easy to refine Starches Corn, grain sorghum Moderately expensive, transportable & storable, easy conversion to sugars Sugars Sugar cane, sweet sorghum, sugar beet Less expensive, direct source of sugar, need immediate processing Biomass MSW, wheat straw, bagasse, forestry waste, high biomass energy crops Cheapest, limits on transport, storable, most difficult to convert Gases CO or CO 2 Cheap, technologies early stage

10 Not too late to enter field GREENSKY&LONDON& Sustainable&Jet&&&Diesel&Fuels& from&waste&biomass& Washington&DC&ABLC& &&17&April&2013 CollaboraFon announced 2010; binding commitments, 2012 Feedstock, ~ 565,000 MT London rubbish 39 M gallons (0.15 GL) FT jet & diesel + naphtha

11 United Airlines/Altair Fuels, 04 Jun 2013 ASTM approved UOP Green Jet Fuel TM 30 M gallons (0.114 GL) 50% diesel, 50 % aviagon

12 New Supply Chains & Partnerships - USA Feedstock& Development& Feedstock& Production& Feedstock& Logistics& Fuel& Conversion& Conversion& Process&ScaleQup/ Integration& Fuel&Testing/Approval& Fuel& Environmental& Performance& Assessment& Enable& Production& End&User/& Buyer& Agriculture:&Biomass&Crop&& Assistance&Program&&&Crop& Insurance&Program& Agriculture&&&Energy:&Feedstock& Development&Center&Grants& Energy&&& Defense:& R&D&grants& Agriculture &&Energy:& R&D&grants& FAA&&& Defense:&C/ Q&Fuel& testing& FAA,& Defense,&&& NASA:& Enviro& Analysis& Agriculture,& Navy,&&& Energy:& Defense& Production& Act&and& Biorefinery& Program& Defense&&& Airlines:&fuel& purchase& FAA:& Guidance& for&airports& EPA:& Renewable& Fuel& Standard& NSF,&NASA,&DOC,&DOS,& & April&17,&13& 7&

13 PotenFal Scale in Australia Figure 2: Aspirations for an advanced biofuels industry in Australia Implied scale by 2030 (GL production p.a.) Description Level 5 Scale exporter > 70 Supply vast majority of domestic fuel demand. Substantial export of some fuels at scale. aspirations Increasing Level 4 Self sufficient Level 3 Key sectors Level 2 Emerging Supply vast majority of domestic fuel demand. All significant fuel products to all industries (including private transport). Supply majority (>50%) of fuel to industries that would most benefit from ABF (e.g. aviation, defence, freight road transport, marine, mining). Diesel and aviation fuel focus. Provide material proportion (10-50%) of fuel to industries that would most benefit from ABF (e.g. aviation, defence, freight road transport, marine, mining). Diesel and aviation fuel focus. Level 1 Niche < 5 A small number of scale facilities supplying a range of fuel types. h"p:// energy- future/advanced- biofuels- study.pdf

14 Boldness is required now The drivers for green growth are strong, globally and locally, but boldness of both vision and acfon is required for Australia to benefit economically and socially from global energy system transformafons. Strategic posifoning InternaFonal engagement (complementary technologies, finance, experfse and experience) Investment in all parts of the innovafon chain are needed for Green Growth Energy opportunifes to be effecfvely exploited.