European biofuel transforming industries

Transcription

1 IFP / UMR Economie Publique INRA-AgroParisTech melissa.clodic@ifp.fr / mclodic@grignon.inra.fr 32nd IAEE International Conference June 2009, 22th

2 Global energy context Global biofuel context PhD objectives Emergence of the environmental awareness (1972 : First Conference of the United Nations dealing with environment) at worldwide, regional and national scales Increase of the world energy demand Limited fossil resources ( Peak oil ) Looking for environmental friendly resources to produce energy Biofuels represent a part of the solution.

3 Why chosing biofuels? Global biofuel context PhD objectives Already available and efficient Increasing the fuel quality Lower Green House Gases emissions Reducing the energy dependence from abroad Sustaining the agricultural sector Developing local economy Rarely profitable without governmental support like subsidies Using conflicts Limited arable lands As many other countries, Europe sustains biofuels Biofuel Directives 98/70/EC (on specifications) and 2003/30/EC (on use and incorporation mandate : 5.75% for 2010).

4 PhD issue Global biofuel context PhD objectives Modelling the whole biofuel production chain (AGRAF model) with a partial equilibrium approach, taking into account the vertical dimension by coupling three sectors modellings : farmers (AROPAj model), transforming industrials (GIRAF model), refiners (OURSE model) the horizontal dimension (1st, 1st bis and 2nd generation biofuels) the geographical dimension (economic agents are geo-referenced)

5 Global biofuel context PhD objectives AGRAF principle - GAMS mathematical programming using Cplex and MIP At a price level, and an international exchange level for OURSE... AROPAj : European Agricultural Supply modelling developed by INRA Max π of each European farmer (1307 farmers-type) ; EU-24 GIRAF : European Transforming Industry Supply modelling (PhD) Max π of each European industries (209 FAME, 73 ETOH) ; EU-27 OURSE : World refinery modelling developed by IFP Min C of European refiners (2 refineries-type) ; EU-27 used... looking for the equilibrium using demand excess functions.

6 Spatial distribution Issue Operator spatial distribution Producer/Tranforming industry/refinery

7 Spatial distribution Issue Operator spatial distribution Producer/Tranforming industry/refinery

8 Exchanges between operators Spatial distribution Issue Two coupling steps : AROPAj & GIRAF and GIRAF & OURSE One of the main issues of coupling steps is to identify the exchanging agents First, we decided to focus our attention on biodiesel exchanges between tranforming industries and refineries

9 Refineries Location Description Inputs

10 Location Description Inputs European biofuel tranforming industries

11 Location Description Inputs European biofuel tranforming industries European biofuel production capacity (tons): FAME : ETOH : Heterogeneous transforming plants

12 Biodiesel tranforming industries Location Description Inputs

13 Location Description Inputs Bioethanol tranforming industries

14 Framework and assumptions Assumptions Principle 209 biodiesel tranforming industries could exchange with 109 refineries European production nominal capacity : tons European refinery demand to the different transforming industries depends on their biofuel prices Biofuel price for all biodiesel transforming industries Agricultural input price (fixed here) + Agricultural transport cost from the crops to the industry (fixed here) + Production cost(fixed here, without scale effect)+ Margin (fixed) + Biodiesel transport cost from the industry to the refinery (variable)

15 Principle Assumptions Principle 1 Minimzing the distance (European market only) 2 Minimizing the global refinery cost with a global European biofuel mandate (European market only) 3 Minimizing the global refinery cost with a biofuel mandate for each refinery (European market only) 4 Minimizing the global refinery cost with a biofuel mandate for each refinery (importations accepted)

16 General results General results Examples 1 Competition between refineries for biodiesel industries will occur 2 Distinguishing industry-refinery couples is possible 3 The global European refinery cost increase, but mandates are more realistic 4 Importations limit competition on industries and less restriction on disponibility (higher incorporation rate)

17 General results Examples Cumulated biofuel volumes for a refinery Cumulated volumes Cumulated biofuel volumes purchased (t) Cumulated volumes (t) Number of plants

18 General results Examples Cumulated biofuel volumes for Rotterdam refinery Cumulated biofuel tons Number of plants

19 Heterogeneity of transforming industries Several associations between refineries and transforming industries depending on assumptions Using the same methodology on bioethanol transforming industries, and between farmers and industries, in order to make the coupling.