Implications of Alberta s Evolving Electricity Market for Solar Matt Ayres CEO, Market Surveillance Administrator matt.ayres@albertamsa.ca
What does the Market Surveillance Administrator do? Investigation Enforcement Compliance with rule and reliability standards Market monitoring Guidelines State of the Market Reports: Assessment of competition 2
Market Evolution Returns for solar generation from pool prices Transition to Capacity Market: Evolution of the wholesale market Capacity market and solar generation: what you should care about and why? 3
Returns for solar generation from pool prices 4
Back at Solar West in 2014 I said. 5
An example Using PVWatts (http://pvwatts.nrel.gov/) can generate a production profile for an example solar generator. 2000 Airport Rd NE, Calgary, AB Requested Location: T2E 6Z8 Location: CALGARY, ALBERTA Lat (deg N): 51.12 Long (deg W): 114.02 Elev (m): 1077 DC System Size (kw): 1000 Module Type: Standard Array Type: Fixed (open rack) Array Tilt (deg): 51.1 Array Azimuth (deg): 180 System Losses: 14 Invert Efficiency: 96 DC to AC Size Ratio: 1.1 Average Cost of Electricity Purchased from Utility ($/kwh): No utility data available Capacity Factor (%) 16.6 From that we get an hourly production profile we can compare to historical hourly pool prices in Alberta. 6
Hourly averages System Output (MW) 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Average Pool Price (S/MWh) AC System Output (MW) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average pool price ($/MWh) 50.88 76.22 64.32 80.19 49.42 33.34 18.28 Total Revenue ($) 101,200 153,337 133,988 191,673 106,728 71,815 29,032 Average Revenue ($/MWh) 69.58 105.42 92.08 131.78 73.38 49.37 19.95 7
Hourly averages of other technologies 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 COAL COGENERATION COMBINED_CYCLE SIMPLE_CYCLE WIND HYDRO IMPORT 8
Transition to Capacity Market: Evolution of Wholesale market 9
Evolving Wholesale Market Today Energy Market The future Capacity Market Energy Market 10
Evolving Wholesale Market Today Forward and Bilateral contracts RECs Energy Market Ancillary services The future Forward and Bilateral contracts More kinds of ancillary services? REP Capacity Market RECs Energy Market?? Other 11
Capacity market and solar generation: what you should care about and why? 12
Capacity markets and solar resources Distributed generation it does provide capacity but would it receive a payment from the capacity market? Utility scale generation what determines how much capacity is eligible for payment? Typically how much solar produces at peak times but what peak times? 13
Capacity markets are there to provide reliability but when? Some examples: Do we only care about reliability in the hour when demand peaks if so its likely after dark in December or January. if it s the day when demand peaks then its likely after dark in December or January. Solar would likely receive some payment. If we care about both summer and winter peaks, solar may receive a considerably larger payment in summer periods. 14
15 What happens in other markets?
What happens in other markets? Market Value Name Notes ISO-NE Unit specific Qualified Capacity Calculate the median net output during the Summer (June to September, HE 14-18) and Winter (October to May, HE 18-19) Reliability Hours for the past 5 years and take the average. MISO Unit specific or 50% Solar Capacity Credit Calculate the recent 3 year average output for summer (June to August, HE 15-17). PJM Unit specific or 38% or other approved value Capacity Factor NYISO Unit specific Performance Factor/ Production Factor 16 Summer 36-46%/Winter 0-2% Unforced Capacity Percentage: Pre-assigned values based on tilt, azimuth angle, summer/winter, fixed/tracking. Calculate the 3 year mean capacity factor using summer peak values (June to August, HE 15-18) and the net maximum capacity. Calculate the prior period's average production during the summer (June to August, HE 15-18) and winter (December to February, HE 17-20). The Production Factor is the hourly sums of Energy delivered to the NYCA transmission system divided by the hourly sums of the nameplate capacity. New solar uses the Unforced Capacity Percentage. ISO New England. 2017. Sections III.1 and III.13. Market Rule 1. Standard Market Design. https://www.iso-ne.com/participate/rules-procedures/tariff/market-rule- 1 MISO. 2016. Resource Adequacy Business Practice Manual. BPM-011-r16. https://www.misoenergy.org/library/businesspracticesmanuals/pages/busi nesspracticesmanuals.aspx System Planning Department. 2017. PJM Manual 21. Rules and Procedures for Determination of Generating Capability. https://www.pjm.com/~/media/documents/manuals/m21.ashx PJM Interconnection, LLC. 2017. Class Average Capacity Factors for Wind and Solar Capacity Resources. http://www.pjm.com/~/media/planning/res-adeq/wind- and-solarclass-average-capacity-factors.ashx New York Independent System Operator. 2017. Manual 4. Installed Capacity Manual. http://www.nyiso.com/public/webdocs/m arkets_operati ons/documents/manuals_and_guides/manuals/oper ations/icap_mnl.pdf New York Independent System Operator. 2017. Manual 4. Installed Capacity Manual. http://www.nyiso.com/public/webdocs/m arkets_operati ons/documents/manuals_and_guides/manuals/oper ations/icap_mnl.pdf
How much depends on the capacity payment? 16,000 ISONE Wholesale Electrcity Costs 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - RTO costs Transmission charges Capacity Ancillary Services Energy * Preliminary figures Source: Consumer Liaison Group Coordinating Committee and ISO New England. March 1, 2017. 2016 Report of the Consumer Liaison Group. https://www.iso-ne.com/staticassets/documents/2017/03/2016_report_of_the_consumer_liaison_group_final.pdf What about other jurisdictions? Do we expect the same distribution in Alberta? 17
18 Questions?