Global Monthly February 18 3 1-year Treasury yields 1-year breakeven inflation rate 1 1 15 16 17 18
February 18 5 3 Global GDP growth Composite PMI (RHS) Index 56 5 5 1 5 1 13 1 15 16 17 18 3..5. 1.5 1. 1 change, year-on-year Brent crude (RHS) 6 Global median inflation 15 16 17 18 - - -6, 3m-3m saar 1 1 8 6 - - -6 Jan-15 Global goods trade New export orders (RHS) Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Index 58 56 5 5 5 8 6
February 18 1 8 6, year-on-year Unemployment rate Hourly wage growth (RHS) 5.5.5 3.5.5 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 15 16 17 1.5 of firms 3 Euro Area 5 15 1 5-5 Germany 198 1986 1988 199 199 199 1996 1998 6 8 1 1 1 16 18 Index 1 1 98 96 9 Trade-weighted exchange rate USD/CNY (RHS, inverted) USD/CNY 6. 6. 6.6 6.8 9 7 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 3
February 18 6 8 1 1 1 16 18 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Brazil Russia Nigeria South Africa Indonesia 6 8 1 1 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Mexico India Philippines Turkey Poland 1 3 5 6 7 Sep-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Feb-18
February 18 US$ billions, -week sum 35 5 Equities Bonds 15 5-5 -15-5 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Basis points Index, 1=Jan., 17 15 Bond spreads 38 Equity index (RHS) 1 3 13 3 1 6 11 Sep-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Mb/d 11 9 7 5 3 197 1973 1976 1979 198 1985 1988 1991 199 1997 3 6 9 1 15 18 5
February 18 3 1 1998-17 1998-17 1998-17 1998-17 PF MVF UVF Exp. 8 Potential growth Actual growth 6 1998-17 potential growth 1998-8-1 18-7 1998-8-1 18-7 1998-8-1 18-7 World AEs EMDEs 1 8 Share of countries Share of GDP 6 World AEs EMDEs 6
February 18 1 8 6 1998-18-7 Share of countries Share of GDP 1998-18-7 1998- World AEs EMDEs 18-7 1 8 6 Share of countries Share of GDP 1998-1998- 1998- World AEs EMDEs.6... 1.8 Contribution World Baseline Demographic trends Other factors 18-7 Contribution 18-7 EMDEs (RHS) 5..8.. 3.6 7
February 18 Global Economic Prospects - January 18: Broad-Based Upturn, but for How Long? Commodity Markets Outlook - October 17 Global Economic Prospects - June 17: A Fragile Recovery Human capital outflows: selection into migration from the Northern Triangle Structural change in west Africa : a tale of gain and loss Effect of climate policies on labor markets in developing countries : review of the evidence and directions for future research Investment in ICT, productivity, and labor demand : the case of Argentina Why are more sovereigns issuing in Euros? Choosing between USD and EUR-denominated bonds Relationship between energy intensity and economic growth : new evidence from a multi-country multi-sector data set The making of behavioral development economics Broadband internet, labor demand, and total factor productivity in Colombia A primer on human capital Structural reforms and firms' productivity : evidence from developing countries Doing Business 18: Reforming to Create Jobs World Development Report 18: LEARNING to Realize Education s Promise Trouble in the Making? The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development ( change, y/y) ( change y/y) Recent releases: January 18, 18 - February 3, 18 Upcoming releases: February, 18 - March 3, 18 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous United Kingdom 1/6/18 GDP Q3 1.5 %. % 1.7 % France /8/18 GDP Q 1.9 % United States 1/6/18 GDP Q.5 %.3 % Denmark /8/18 GDP Q 1.5 % Belgium 1/9/18 GDP Q 1.9 %. % 1.7 % Sweden /8/18 GDP Q.9 % Germany 1/3/18 CPI JAN 1.6 % 1.7 % 1.7 % Slovenia /8/18 GDP Q.5 % Spain 1/3/18 GDP Q 3.1 % 3.1 % 3.1 % United States /8/18 GDP Q.3 % Mexico 1/3/18 GDP Q 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% Belgium /8/18 GDP Q 1.7 % Spain 1/31/18 CPI JAN.5 % 1.1 % Lithuania 3/1/18 GDP Q 3.6 % Indonesia /5/18 GDP Q 5.% 5. % 5.1% Finland 3/1/18 GDP Q 3. % Japan /13/18 GDP, annualized Q.5%. % Spain 3/1/18 GDP Q 3.1 % Italy /1/18 GDP Q 1.6% 1.6% 1.7 % Brazil 3/1/18 GDP Q 1. % Germany /1/18 GDP Q.9% 3.%.8 % Italy 3//18 GDP Q 1.7 % Czech Republic /1/18 GDP Q 5.1% 5.% 5. % Switzerland 3//18 GDP Q 1. % Hungary /1/18 GDP Q.%.1% 3.9 % South Africa 3/6/18 GDP Q.8 % Netherland /1/18 GDP Q.9% 3.3 % 3. % Australia 3/6/18 GDP Q.8 % Poland /1/18 GDP Q 5.1% 5.%.9 % Romania 3/7/18 GDP Q 8.6 % Bulgaria /1/18 GDP Q 3.6% 3.9 % Cyprus 3/9/18 GDP Q 3.9 % Portugal /1/18 GDP Q.%. %.5 % Iceland 3/9/18 GDP Q 3.1 % Greece /1/18 GDP Q3 1.3% 1.% 1.5 % New Zealand 3/1/18 GDP Q.7 % Euro Area /1/18 GDP Q.7%.7%.7 % Ireland 3/15/18 GDP Q 1.5 % Malaysia /1/18 GDP Q 5.9% 5.7% 6. % Luxembourg 3//18 GDP Q 3. % Thailand /19/18 GDP Q.%.%.3 % Netherland 3/6/18 GDP Q 3. % 8
February 18 ( change y/y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q/q, annualized) Industrial production, sa 1 17 17 15 16 Q1 Q Q3 Q Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec World 1.8. 3.5 5.1 3. 5.5.9 3. 3.9 3.7.3...3.3.3.3.5 Advanced economies.. 1.6.6.3 6. 1.1...5 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.6 3.3 3.9 Emerging market and developing economies 3.5. 5. 5.7. 5.1.9.3 5.6 5. 5.5 5. 5. 5. 5.6 5.1 5. 5. Commodity-exporting EMDEs -1.1. 1. 5.1 3.. 1.8 1. 1.9.1 3.9.9.5 3. 3. 3.1..3 Other EMDE 5.1 5. 6.6 5.8.7 6. 5.8 5.3 6.7 5.8 6. 6.1 6.3 6. 6. 5.6 6.1 6. East Asia and Pacific 5.8 5.9 7.1 6.1.6.9 6. 6.1 7. 6. 6.3 6.5 6. 5.8 6.5 5.8 5.7 5.6 East Asia excl. China 3.6.6.6.8 7.9-1.9.6 5.1 6.. 5.1.5 3..7 5.7 3. 3.5 1.7 Europe and Central Asia 1.5.3. 9.6. 5.6 3.6 1. 3.9. 6..9 6.6 6. 6. 5..3 5.1 Latin America and Caribbean -.6 -.3.6. 3.5.8.. -.1 -.8 1.1 -.1 1. 1.3.6 1.7 1.. Middle East and North Africa -3.3-7..7.1 19.1-13.1 17..7 1.1. 3.3 3.7 15. 19. 18.8 1. - South Asia 3.5 5.3.7 1.8 6.6 8.9..1 5.5.6.1.1 3.9 6.5.7.3 7.9 6. Sub-Saharan Africa -.1 1. -.1 3. 3.8 7..3 -.5-1.9 -. -1.8 -.8 -.7 1. -.8 1.8.3 3.3 Inflation, sa World 1. 1.6.6.3...5.7.7.6.3..3..5.5.5. Advanced economies.1.3 1.6 1. 1.5 1. 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.9 1. 1. 1. 1.5 1.5 1. 1.5 1.5 Emerging market and developing economies.6.7 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.5 3.7 3.7 3. 3..9 3.3 3. 3.5 3.3 3.3 Commodity-exporting EMDEs. 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.9..1 3.8 3.5 3. 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.3 3. Other EMDE.9 1.1 3..9.9 3..6 3. 3. 3..9.3.5.8 3.3 3. 3. 3.3 East Asia and Pacific 1...6.9..7.7 3.5 3.5 3..9..3.6.7 3..6.9 Europe and Central Asia 1.9....7.9.3.5.7.6.7..5.6.8.6 3..9 Latin America and Caribbean.7..9. 3. 3.9.6 3..8.9.9 1.8.8 3. 3.7 3.5.1 3.5 Middle East and North Africa 1.8.7.6 1.5 1.1..3.3.9 1.7 1.9 1. 1.1 1.1 1.6.1 1.7.3 South Asia.5..3.5 3.6 3.8 3.7.1.9.7 5.. 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.7. 5. Sub-Saharan Africa. 5.7 7. 6.3 5.5 5. 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.8 6. 6. 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.6.6. ( change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) 17 17 15 16 Q1 Q Q3 Q Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Au Sep Oct Nov Dec Exports, nominal, US$, sa World -11.6-3. 18. 3.1 1.8 15.7 1.9 7.5 1.9 3.8 11.1 7.5 1. 1.9 1.9 1. 13. 11.6 Advanced economies -11. -.8 18.1 1. 17. 13. 1.1 8. 1.7 1. 1.3 6. 9.9 1.7 1.8 1.1 13. 11.6 Emerging market and developing economies -11.9-6.5 18.9 6.1 5.3.8 1. 6.7 16.9 8.6 1.7 9.5 1.8 11.1 11.1 1.9 13. 11.6 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -. -9.1 37. -1.5 16.5.8 6.5 19.1 3.1 13.1 19.5 1.1 17. 16.6 16.. 13.9 13. Other EMDEs -3.7 -.6 1.1 13.8 1.1 19.1 7.3. 1.6 6.9 1.1 9.3 8.5 9. 9.1 1.1 1.8 11. East Asia and Pacific -3.5-6.1 1.7 15.5 -. 17.8 8.5 1.9 15. 8.7 11.1 9. 1.3 8. 9.7 1. 1.8 1.8 Europe and Central Asia -.7-6.1 35.8-3.5 16.5 31.8.5 1..9 5.7 19.5 11. 11.3. 16.7. 19.1 16. Latin America and Caribbean -11.8 -.3 3.6 -.9 6.3 13.8 1. 1. 17. 9.6 11. 1. 1.3 11.1 1.1 15.1 8.6 7.7 Middle East and North Africa -7.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - South Asia -..6 1.8-11. 11.7 8.9 3.1 -.3 11.1 6.3 -. -3. 11.7 9.9.9.1 1.9 11. Sub-Saharan Africa -6.5-1.6 5. -1.7 8.6 -.3 5. 18. 6.7 1.8 13.5 1.9 17.6 1.5 - - - Imports, nominal, US$, sa World -6.9-5. 3.7 15. -. 31.6 11. 5. 1.3-6. 5. 7. 1. 16.1 5.9 17.9 13.1 19.8 Advanced economies -1.7-3. 1..5 1.5 19. 9.5 3. 9. 1.9 1.3 5.1 1.7 9.3 9.3 1.1 13.8 1.3 Emerging market and developing economies -3.3-6. 5..7-8. 39.5 1.5 6.6 11. -1.3 3.6 8. 7.9. 3.8.1 1.7 3.1 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -1. -7. 1. 31.5-13.1-11.8.1 8.8-15.3 39.7 7. 31.5. -. 1. 11. - Other EMDEs -11. -3.1 39. -.7 11.1.6 15.1 3.1 18.8 11. 17. 1.6 16. 1.3 17.5 16.6 17.9 13.9 East Asia and Pacific -13.1-3.6 5. -11. 1.9 17. 17.1 3.1.6 1. 17.7 13. 15.8 13.9 19.1 17.8 18.6 9.7 Europe and Central Asia -.8-1. 39. 16.8 16.8 18.9.5 9.9 13.5 9.1 3. 13.7 6.7 16.9 19.8.9.6. Latin America and Caribbean -9.9-7. 5.3-8.5 1.8 16.1 11..8 13.1-1.3 1.1 6. 7.5 9.3.9 15.7 8.8 6.5 Middle East and North Africa 1. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - South Asia -13. -5. 3.5 15.5-1. 3.9 15.5 1.5.5. 31. 13.7.6.9 18.5 1.9 18.9 19.9 Sub-Saharan Africa -7.8-13.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - International reserves, US$ 1 World -5.7 -. 1.7.1 1.7 1..6.3.7.7.8.5.8.6.3..5.7 Advanced economies. 3. 3..9 1.7 1.1 1.5. 1.5 1. 1.1.5.9.5.3 -.3.7.8 Emerging market and developing economies -1.7-5..5 1.5 1.7 1..1.3...7..7.6....6 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -11.1 -.5.5.5.8 -..3.1.1...3..1.5 - - Other EMDEs -1.3-5.7.5.. 1.1.1.3..5.9.6.9.8.5.1..7 East Asia and Pacific -1. -7.3.5 1.7.1 1.1...1.8.8.1 1..6.5...7 Europe and Central Asia -6.8 3..9 3. 3.1.9 1.9.6.3 -. 1.3. 1.1 1.6.3. 1. -.3 Latin America and Caribbean -5.3 1..5 1.7 1. -1..6. -.3.8..8.6.3 -.1.5 -. -.7 Middle East and North Africa -17.7-1.7 -. -1.7 - - -1.6 -.6. -1. -. -.3-1. -. - - - - South Asia 1.9 3.6.1.5.5.3.5.5 1..7. 1.7 1.1 1.3.1 -.1.. Sub-Saharan Africa -1.7 -.7 3..7. - 1.3. -.5 3.5-1. -1.6. -1.7..5 - - 9
February 18 ( change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period ) Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) 17 17 18 MRV 1 15 16 Q1 Q Q3 Q Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan U.S. federal funds effective.13.39.67.9 1.13 1.17.63.76.88.88 1.1 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.7 1.38 1.38 ECB repo.5.................. US$ LIBOR 3-months.3.7 1.7 1. 1.3 1.7 1. 1.13 1.16 1.19 1.6 1.31 1.31 1.3 1.36 1.3 1.61 1.73 1.9 EURIBOR 3-months -. -.6 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 -.33 U.S. 1-year Treasury yield.1 1.8..6..37..8.3.3.19.3.1..36.35.1.58.88 German Bund, 1 year.5.11.35.31.6.38.33..6.37.9.5..1.3.37.36.5.66 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan emerging markets 15 1 3 35 3 313 338 39 331 3 35 37 35 31 36 3 31 99 37 Asia 1 175 169 161 151 173 166 173 167 166 163 163 157 18 153 151 16 153 Europe 38 3 61 3 33 58 53 5 37 3 3 6 9 1 1 Latin America and the Caribbean 5 537 5 7 8 16 31 31 3 35 35 16 7 19 1 19 Middle East 56 517 396 36 383 396 377 35 353 38 38 38 38 381 1 398 359 37 Africa 15 518 389 386 38 35 387 38 376 383 39 378 367 36 359 33 35 317 Stock indexes (end of period) Global (MSCI) 399 9 65 87 58 5 9 55 6 65 78 78 87 97 55 58 5 519 Advanced economies ($ index) 1663 1761 185 1916 1 86 1839 185 1878 191 1916 1961 196 1 37 77 86 53 118 United States (S&P 5) 58 363 3 519 668 36 363 38 1 3 7 7 519 575 68 668 631 71 Europe (S&P Euro 35) 17 175 157 153 1571 1558 151 157 156 1576 153 156 151 1571 16 1563 1558 1518 1535 Japan (Nikkei 5) 18817 193 1899 33 356 53 193 1899 19197 19836 33 1997 197 356 198 73 53 165 175 Emerging market and developing economies (MSCI) 79 861 958 111 18 1139 936 958 978 15 111 166 188 18 1119 111 1139 1158 11 EM Asia 19 7 51 53 577 59 7 8 55 51 538 5 53 571 57 577 58 65 EM Europe 95 31 3 331 31 96 31 313 38 3 315 336 331 33 33 31 35 37 EM Europe and Middle East 11 8 5 51 68 75 9 5 59 55 51 61 7 68 68 65 75 85 98 EM Latin America & Caribbean 183 31 611 5 917 811 6 611 61 53 5 75 873 917 89 719 811 95 31 Exchange rates (LCU / USD) Advanced economies Euro Area.9.9.9.91.85.85.9.9.93.91.89.87.85.8.85.85.8.8.81 Japan 11. 18.8 113.63 111.1 11.96 11.75 11.96 11.91 11. 11.36 11.91 11.31 19.78 11.8 11.93 11.81 11.51 19.83 16.6 Emerging market and developing economies Brazil 3.33 3.9 3.1 3.1 3.16 3. 3.1 3.13 3.1 3. 3.3 3. 3.15 3.13 3.19 3.6 3.8 3.19 3.3 China 6.9 6.65 6.89 6.86 6.67 6.61 6.87 6.9 6.89 6.88 6.81 6.77 6.67 6.57 6.6 6.6 6.59 6.1 6.3 Egypt 7.7 1.1 17.8 18.1 17.77 17.71 17.1 17.76 18.9 18.1 18.11 17.9 17.75 17.65 17.6 17.68 17.81 17.7 17.71 India 6.1 67.19 66.97 6.8 6.9 6.71 67.1 65.83 6.5 6.6 6.5 6. 63.97 6.6 65.7 6.85 6. 63.7 6. Russia 61.3 67.6 58.67 57.17 58.93 58.7 58. 57.83 56.53 56.88 58.1 59.7 59. 57.66 57.76 58.97 58.7 56.93 56.1 South Africa 1.77 1.71 13. 13.1 13.19 13.6 13.17 1.95 13.6 13.5 1.91 13.15 13.5 13.17 13.71 1.6 13.11 1.15 11.67 Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index) Sources: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, and World Bank. 1 MRV = most recent value. 11.6 119.7 13.5 1.7 116.6 117.5 13.1 1.5 11.7 11. 119. 117.9 116.5 115.5 117.5 117.7 117. 11.7 113.7 17 17 18 MRV 1 15 16 Q1 Q Q3 Q Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Energy 65 55 68 6 65 75 69 65 67 6 6 6 65 68 71 76 78 85 85 Non-energy 8 79 85 8 8 85 86 8 8 8 8 83 8 85 85 85 85 87 87 Agriculture 88 88 89 87 86 86 9 88 87 88 87 88 85 86 86 86 86 88 88 Metals and minerals 68 6 78 7 81 8 79 79 75 73 7 76 83 8 8 8 85 89 87 Memo items: Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 51 3 53 5 5 59 5 51 5 5 6 8 5 53 55 6 61 66 63 Gold ($/toz) 1161 19 119 158 178 175 13 131 167 16 16 137 183 131 18 18 16 1331 1331 Baltic Dry Index 711 676 938 13 1138 159 76 11 19 979 861 96 11 1363 18 155 1589 13 187 Sources: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg. 1 MRV = most recent value. Indexes, 1 = 1. 1