Enhancing Regional Cooperation in Energy Infrastructure Development Davood Manzoor, Ph.D. High-Level Policy Dialogue on Regional Cooperation and Inclusive Development in South and South West Asia 18-19 October 2012, Le MeridienHotel, New Delhi
Lecture Outlines Introductory remarks Status of energy supply and demand in the region Energy trade and import dependency Energy cooperation initiatives Regional electricity cooperation and integration Energy projections of the region s future energy investment needs Future requirements and possible options for the involvement of ESCAP in facilitating cooperation in energy.
per capita energy consumption( ) Total South and South-West Asia Total South-East Asia Total North and Central Asia Total East and North-East Asia per capita(tons of oil equivalent) Total Pacific ESCAP world 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 tons of oil equivalent source:2009 Energy Statistics Yearbook United Nationshttp://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment_main.htm
Energy Consumption and annual Consumption growth rates Energy consumption Annual growth rate Region Million Tons of oil equivalent precentage 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 2009 1980-2009 1980-1995 1995-2002 2002-2009 World 6157.2 6732.3 7573.5 7976 8442.9 8784.6 9988.939 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.6 ESCAP region 1088.3 1359.8 1765.7 2967.5 3071.2 3331.6 5308.100 5.6 6.5 1.5 1.6 Total South and South-West Asia Total South-East Asia Total East and North-East Asia 168.3 2 37.5 330.6 434.8 565.8 585.3 910.393 6.0 6.1 3.8 5.7 75.2 88.6 150.4 203.1 256 288.4 357.758 5.5 6.4 4.5 2.7 770.2 945.2 1179.4 1484.6 1394.7 1585.4 3105.031 4.9 4.2 0.8 8.8 Total North and Central Asia 729.3 724.1 738.5 789.087 0.2 0.8 Total Pacific 74.7 88.5 105.3 115.8 130.6 134 145.831 2.3 2.8 1.8 1.1 source:2009 Energy Statistics Yearbook United Nations, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment_main.htm
Energy intensity 7000 (kg of oil equivalent) per $1,000 GDP (constant 2005 PPP) 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 World The PCIFIC East and North-East Asia North and Central Asia South-East ASIA 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 2008 source:2009 Energy Statistics Yearbook United Nations, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment_main.htm
Share of global energy production and consumption in ESCAP region electricity gas liquids consumption solids production total 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 precentage source:2009 Energy Statistics Yearbook United Nations, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment_main.htm
Energy Production and annual production growth rates Region Energy production Million Tons of oil equivalent Annual growth rate precentage 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 2009 1980-2009 1980-1995 1995-2002 2002-2009 World 6661.6 7029.6 8140 8613 9150.3 9510.2 10869.93 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.7 ESCAP region 918.7 1268.7 1662.6 3207.9 3282.4 3643.2 6894.669 7.2 8.1 1.6 8.3 Total South and South-West Asia 182.1 285.1 397.7 490.2 564.9 567 849.346 5.4 6.4 1.8 5.2 Total South-East Asia Total East and North-East Asia Total North and Central Asia 136.4 157.6 241.8 313.5 368.2 403 542.166 4.9 5.3 3.2 3.8 515.2 699.7 856.8 1048.2 890.9 1096.5 3096.635 6.4 4.5 0.6 13.9 1149.6 1206.6 1302.5 1543.48 1.6 2.1 Total Pacific 84.9 126.3 166.3 206.4 251.8 274.3 322.907 4.1 5.7 3.6 2.1 source:2009 Energy Statistics Yearbook United Nations, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment_main.htm
Production and Consumption of energy in the ESCAP region (2009) 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 production consumption 2000 1000 0 total solids liquids gas electricity production 6894.651 3049.365 1704.106 1815.545 325.638 consumption 7064.215 2876.512 2024.943 1837.775 324.994 source:2009 Energy Statistics Yearbook United Nations, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment_main.htm
Energy production by sub-region(2009) 7000 6000 Million tons of oil equivalent 5000 4000 3000 2000 electricity gas liquids solids 1000 0 ESCAP region Total South and South-West Asia Total South-East Asia Total East and North-East Asia Total North and Central Asia Total Pacific source:2009 Energy Statistics Yearbook United Nations, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment_main.htm
Share of global energy production and consumption in ESCAP region (2009) Percentage of world total Region production consumption total solids liquids gas electricity total solids liquids gas electricity World 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 ESCAP region 63.4 87.5 42.1 65.1 59.3 68.8 84.4 60.3 61.9 57.6 Total South and South-West Asia 7.8 9.7 6.8 7.8 3.4 9.1 11.5 7.9 8.8 3.4 Total South-East Asia 5.0 6.4 3.4 6.2 1.4 3.6 2.9 4.4 3.9 1.4 Total East and North- East Asia Total North and Central Asia 28.5 47.8 17.0 21.6 25.2 31.1 52.6 18.4 21.2 24.7 14.2 5.7 15.9 23.8 6.2 7.9 3.8 4.0 17.2 5.9 Total Pacific 3.0 6.9 0.7 1.8 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 0.8 source:2009 Energy Statistics Yearbook United Nations, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment_main.htm
Fossil fuel reserves at the end of 2011 country Thousand million barrels Oil: Proved reserves Natural gas: Proved reserves Coal: Proved Reserves at end 2011 Share of total R/P ratio Trillion cubic metres Share of total R/P ratio Million tonnes Share of total Australia 3.9 0.2% 21.9 3.8 1.8% 83.6 76400 8.9% 184 Azerbaijan 7.0 0.4% 20.6 1.3 0.6% 85.8 Bangladesh 0.4 0.2% 17.8 Brunei 1.1 0.1% 18.2 0.3 0.1% 22.5 China 14.7 0.9% 9.9 3.1 1.5% 29.8 114500 13.3% 33 Democratic People s Republic of Korea 600 0.1% 19 India 5.7 0.3% 18.2 1.2 0.6% 26.9 60600 7.0% 103 Indonesia 4.0 0.2% 11.8 3.0 1.4% 39.2 5529 0.6% 17 Iran 151.2 9.1% 95.8 33.1 15.9% * Japan 350 w 275 Kazakhstan 30.0 1.8% 44.7 1.9 0.9% 97.6 33600 3.9% 290 Malaysia 5.9 0.4% 28.0 2.4 1.2% 39.4 Myanmar 0.2 0.1% 17.8 News land 571 0.1% 115 Pakistan 0.8 0.4% 19.9 2070 0.2% * PapuaNew Guinea 0.4 0.2% * Republic of Korea 126 w 60 Russian Federation 88.2 5.3% 23.5 44.6 21.4% 73.5 157010 18.2% 471 Thailand 0.4 w 3.5 0.3 0.1% 7.6 1239 0.1% 58 Turkey 2343 0.3% 30 Turkmenistan 0.6 w 7.6 24.3 11.7% * Uzbekistan 0.6 w 18.9 1.6 0.8% 28.1 Vietnam 4.4 0.3% 36.7 0.6 0.3% 72.3 150 w 3 Other Asia Pacific 1.1 0.1% 10.4 0.3 0.2% 18.9 265843 30.9% 53 R/P ratio Source: BP, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011, http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview
Import dependency(2009) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 World Total Pacific Total East and North-East Asia Total North and Central Asia Total South-East Asia Total South and South-West Asia source:2009 Energy Statistics Yearbook United Nations, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment_main.htm
Total primary energy supply projection, 2030 (Million tons of oil equivalent) Asia and Pacific World World alternative projection coal 2 333 3 601 2 744 oil 2 100 5 766 4 995 Gas 1 294 4 130 3 701 Nuclear 343 764 868 Hydro 134 365 367 Biomass and waste 732 1 605 1 648 Other renewable 91 256 330 TOTAL 7 027 16 487 14 654 Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004 (Paris, IEA, 2004).
Energy investment projections for several Asian and Pacific countries and country groupings based on current trends, upto 2030 (Billions of year 2000 United States dollars) World OECD Pacific Russian Federation and transition economies China India Other South and East Asia Asia- Pacific Developing countries of Asia- Pacific Coal 398 36 13 123 25 197 161 Electricity 9841 809 377 1913 665 917 4681 3872 Oil 3096 44 440 119 32 131 766 722 Gas 3145 111 440 98 44 226 919 808 Total 16481 1000 1270 2253 766 1274 6563 5563 Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy Agency, World Energy Investment Outlook (Paris, OECD/IEA, 2003).
Energy investment projections, upto 2030 (Billions of year 2000 United States dollars) Asia-Pacific World Universal electricity access (world) Alternative world scenario Coal 197 398 Electricity 4681 9841 Oil 766 3096 Gas 919 3145 Total 6563 16481 17146 14338 Average annual investment 218 549 572 478 Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy Agency, World Energy Investment Outlook 2003 (Paris, OECD/IEA, 2003), and World Energy Outlook 2004 (Paris, OECD/IEA, 2004).
Energy Cooperation initiatives
Regional electricity integration Technical and economic benefits Organizational Requirements Financial Requirements Operational Requirements
Energy Cooperation Challenges