Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing Fourth quarter 2015 automotive market share trends and registrations Brad Smith Director, Automotive Market Statistics Marty Miller Senior Product Manager, VIO Experian Automotive Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian.
Today s presentation Part one Marty Miller Senior Product Manager, VIO What s on the Road VIO by model year, segment, age and market share U.S. light duty vehicles through December 31, 2015 U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles through December 31, 2015 Presentation will be available 24-48 hours after Webinar Email with a link will be sent to all registrants to download Questions? Contact us at Auto@experian.com 2
Session overview Part two Q4 2015 Registrations Market trends Geographic performance Manufacturer, make and model share Demographic overview Brad Smith Director, Automotive Market Statistics 3
Vehicles in Operation What s on the road today? Light duty vehicles 4
What s on the road today? VIO Light duty vehicles VIO additions/deletions: 27.5 million (10.7%) (new sales + out of operation) VIO total changes: 67.4 million (26.1%) (used sales + new sales + out of operation) Vehicles in operation Q4 2014 251.1 million Net out of operation 10.3 million (4%) Carryover Used vehicle sales 39.9 million Vehicles in operation Q4 2015 258 million (2.7%) New vehicle sales 17.25 million Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 5
VIO change by model year (in millions) Q4 2014 to Q4 2015 New Sales 17.25M 72.8% of all vehicles within 14 MY (28%) Out of Operation Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 6
VIO by model year (in millions) 88M vehicles within Sweet Spot (MY2004 2010) 77.4% of VIO MY2001+ 33.6% of VIO MY2010+ 91.3% of VIO MY1996+ Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 7
Sweet Spot changing Domestic v Import Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 8
Sweet Spot changing Vehicle segment type Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 9
VIO Top 20 segments on the road market share Change from Q4 2014 Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 10
Average vehicle age (1967 to current MYs of period) Rolling average vehicle age (first 20 MYs of period) Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 11
Percentage of VIO by manufacturer market share Change from Q4 2014 Detroit 3 = 55.2% Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 12
VIO Vocation How light duty commercial vehicles are used Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 13
VIO Vocation Top makes/models Light duty vehicles as of Q4 2015 (excludes rental / leasing / dealers) Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 14
Vehicles in Operation What s on the road today? Medium and heavy duty vehicles 15
What s on the road today? VIO by model year Medium and heavy duty vehicles Vehicles in operation Q4 2015 6.9 million 67.7% of VIO MY2001+ 29.5% of VIO MY2010+ 84.5% of VIO MY1996+ Source: Experian Automotive as of December31, 2015 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only) 16
VIO by GVW class & engine manufacturer share Medium and heavy duty vehicles Source: Experian Automotive as of December31, 2015 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only) 17
Top 20 VIO Market share of Vocation High level Medium and heavy duty vehicles Source: Experian Automotive as of December31, 2015 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only) 18
U.S. Market Overview Market Share Loyalty Conquest and Defection 19
New vehicle registrations surpassed the 17 million unit mark for the first time since 2005 20
Throughout the recovery, the split between individual and organizational vehicle registrations has remained flat 21
Generally speaking, new vehicle registrations are equally distributed across the calendar year, with Q2 and Q3 seeing a slight increase above Q1 and Q4 22
Light truck share of individual registration increased 4 percentage points from 2014 to 55% 23
Led by Entry CUV, 10 vehicle segments accounted for approximately 80% of new individual registrations in 2015 24
Small Pickups and Upper Premium Sports Cars took the lead in year over year growth while alternative fuel vehicles and high end luxury segments declined 25
4 vehicles control more than half of the Entry Level CUV Segment 26
General Motors edged Toyota to lead all manufacturers in market share in 2015 27
Tata, Subaru and General Motors experienced the largest year over year volume increase 28
The U.S. market is growing increasingly more competitive with 5 manufacturers fighting to hold or achieve 15% market share 29
Toyota, Ford and Chevrolet were the only 3 brands to achieve double digit market share in 2015 30
Of the top 15 brands, only Dodge and VW experienced a year over year decline in new individual registration volume 31
Ford F150 led all models with 2.76% market share 32
U.S. Market Overview Loyalty, Conquest and Defection 33
New buyers are the most loyal to their brands, followed by Certified Used and Non-Certified Used 34
Loyalty rates across manufacturer, make, model and dealer measures have been steadily increasing since 2010 35
Toyota leads all manufacturers with a loyalty rate of nearly 70% 36
Tata, Porsche and Volvo led all manufacturers in year over year increases in manufacturer loyalty 37
Subaru leads all brands with 67.9% of returning owners buying another Subaru vehicle 38
Lexus led all brands with a 7.2 percentage point increase in brand loyalty 39
Nissan NV 200 leads all models with 52.7% model loyalty rate 40
For every customer lost, Subaru gains nearly four new customers from other brands 41
King of the Conquests, Subaru gained more than 140k more customers than were lost to other brands 42
In summary Light duty market size grows by 6.9M vehicles over the last 12 months as market share of the CUV and Small Car segments continue to grow The aftermarket Sweet Spot is set to change by Domestic v Import and by vehicle type Commercial use (vocation) is dominated by Rental and Leasing, though Construction vehicles are close behind, yet showing their age Total new vehicle registrations surpassed the 17 million unit mark for the first time since 2005 Led by the Entry CUV segment, 10 vehicle segments account for nearly 80% of new individual registrations New buyers are 3.5 percentage points more loyal to their brands than certified used buyers Subaru led all brands in make loyalty and in net conquests 43
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