Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical

Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical October 3, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-536 jabbott@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Fundamental Stock Market Indicator 1-2 Global Growth Barometer 3 Economic Surprise Index 4 Investors Intelligence Sentiment 5 Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3. 6 Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1. 7 Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1. & Over 3. 8 AAII Sentiment 9 Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence 1 S&P 5 Put Call Ratio 11 Volatility 12 Volume 13 Dow Theory 14 S&P 5 Moving Averages 15-16 S&P 5 Sectors Stock Price Index & 2-dma 17 S&P 5 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 2-dma 18 S&P 5 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 519 October 3, 218 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators www.

Fundamental Stock Market Indicator 3 28 Figure 1. YRI FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR and S&P 5 INDEX 8/18 16 26 24 YRI Fundamental Stock Market Indicator* 14 22 S&P 5 Index 12 2 18 1 16 14 8 12 1 6 8 6 4 4 2 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 2 * Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor s Corporation. 7 6 5 4 3 2 Figure 2. YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX 1/2 Boom-Bust Barometer* 8/18 Consumer Comfort Index 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 25 24 23 22 21 2 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 * CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor. Page 1 / October 3, 218 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.

Fundamental Stock Market Indicator 85 75 Figure 3. S&P 5 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES S&P 5 Index 3 28 26 65 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Index 24 22 2 55 18 16 45 14 12 35 1 8 25 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Commodity Research Bureau. 6 1 2 3 Figure 4. S&P 5 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS S&P 5 Index Initial Unemployment Claims (thousands, sa, four-week moving average, inverted scale) 1/2 3 28 26 24 22 2 4 18 16 5 14 12 6 1 8 7 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poor s. 6 Page 2 / October 3, 218 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.

Global Growth Barometer 35 Figure 5. YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 5 basis) & S&P 5 35 265 265 YRI Global Growth Barometer* (162.3) 225 S&P 5 Index (2682.6) 225 185 185 145 145 15 15 65 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 65 * Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 1. Average then multiplied by 1 and 2 added. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Commodity Research Bureau. 2 175 Figure 6. US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE S&P 5 Index 3 28 26 15 Brent Crude Oil Price* (dollars per barrel) 24 22 125 2 18 1 16 75 1/29 14 12 5 1 8 25 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 6 * Nearby futures price. Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 3 / October 3, 218 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.

6 Figure 7. Economic Surprise Index S&P 5 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent) 15 4 1 2 5-2 -5-4 S&P 5 minus its 2 day-moving average -1-6 Economic Surprise Index 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup. -15 19 17 Figure 8. S&P 5 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent) 15 1 5 15 1/25 13-5 11 S&P 5 Forward P/E* Economic Surprise Index -1-15 9 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22-2 * Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Standard & Poor s, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Citigroup. Page 4 / October 3, 218 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.

6 Figure 9. Investors Intelligence Sentiment INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS 6 5 4 Ratio Bull/Bear Ratio* Ratio Oct 9 3.4 Oct 16 2.84 Oct 23 2.66 5 4 3 2 1/23 3 2 1 1 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 8 7 Percentage Bulls Bears Bulls Bears Oct 9 56.3 18.5 Oct 16 51.9 18.3 Oct 23 5.5 19. 8 7 6 6 5 1/23 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 5 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 1 5 45 4 Percentage Correction Correction Oct 9 25.2 Oct 16 29.8 Oct 23 3.5 45 4 35 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1/23 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: Investors Intelligence. 3 25 2 15 1 5 Page 5 / October 3, 218 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.

Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3. 34 3 26 22 Figure 1. S&P 5 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3. OR MORE* (ratio scale) 34 3 26 22 18 18 14 14 1 6 1 6 2 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 2 * Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.. Source: Standard & Poor s and Investors Intelligence. 316 Figure 11. 316 266 216 DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3. OR MORE* (ratio scale) 266 216 166 166 116 116 66 66 16 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 16 * Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence. Page 6 / October 3, 218 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.

Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1. 34 3 26 22 Figure 12. S&P 5 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1. OR LESS* (ratio scale) 34 3 26 22 18 18 14 14 1 6 1 6 2 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 2 * Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.. Source: Standard & Poor s and Investors Intelligence. 316 Figure 13. 316 266 216 166 DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1. OR LESS* (ratio scale) 266 216 166 116 116 66 66 16 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 16 * Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence. Page 7 / October 3, 218 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.

4 Figure 14. Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1. & Over 3. S&P 5 % FROM 2-DMA vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3. OR MORE* 4 2 2-2 -2-4 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2-4 * Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or more than 3.. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. 4 Figure 15. S&P 5 % FROM 2-DMA vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1. OR LESS* 4 2 2-2 -2-4 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2-4 * Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 8 / October 3, 218 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.

1 Figure 16. AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS AAII Sentiment 1 75 AAII Bull Ratio* 75 5 5 1/24 25 25 5 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 5 4 3 AAII Bull/Bear Ratio 4 3 2 2 1 1/24 1 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Latest Readings Bulls Bears Oct 17 33.9 35. Oct 24 28. 41. Bulls Bears 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 * AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears. Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). 1/24 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Page 9 / October 3, 218 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.

Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence 5.5 Figure 17. BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 14 5. 4.5 Bull/Bear Ratio (4-week average) Oct 12 4. 3.5 Consumer Confidence Expectations Index 1 3. 2.5 1/23 8 2. 6 1.5 1. 4.5. 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board. 2 5.5 Figure 18. BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX 7 5. 4.5 Bull/Bear Ratio (4-week average) 8/18 6 4. Consumer Comfort Index 3.5 5 3. 1/23 2.5 2. 4 1.5 1. 3.5. 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Bloomberg. 2 Page 1 / October 3, 218 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.

3.75 3.5 3.25 3. 2.75 2.5 2.25 2. 1.75 Figure 19. S&P 5 PUT/CALL (weekly data) S&P 5 Put Call Ratio 3.75 3.5 3.25 3. 2.75 2.5 2.25 2. 1.75 1.5 1.25 1..75.5 Average = 1.616 (1996-21) 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange. 1/26 1.5 1.25 1..75.5 2.5 2.25 Figure 2. S&P 5 PUT/CALL (4-week ma) 2.5 2.25 2. 2. 1.75 1/26 1.75 1.5 1.5 1.25 1. Average = 1.624 (1996-21) 1.25 1..75 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange..75 Page 11 / October 3, 218 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.

9 8 Figure 21. VIX: S&P 5 Volatility 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange. 1 1 Figure 22. VIX: NASDAQ 1 1 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange. Page 12 / October 3, 218 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.

12 Figure 23. Volume NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE WEEKLY VOLUME (billion shares, 4-week moving average) 12 1 52-week moving average 1 8 6 8 6 4 1/26 4 2 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics. 2 Page 13 / October 3, 218 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.

Dow Theory 27 24 21 18 Figure 24. DOW JONES STOCK AVERAGES (ratio scale) Industrials (DJIA) Transportation (DJTA) 125 11 95 8 15 65 12 5 9 35 6 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: The Wall Street Journal. 2 4 36 Figure 25. S&P 5 STOCK INDEXES (ratio scale) 1 85 32 Industrials Composite* 7 28 24 Transportation Composite 55 2 4 16 25 12 8 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 1 * S&P 5 excluding Financials, Transports, and Utilities. Source: Standard & Poor s. Page 14 / October 3, 218 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.

3 28 26 24 22 Figure 26. S&P 5 INDEX: 28-217* (log scale) -56.8% (51) -16.% (69) S&P 5 Moving Averages -19.4% (154) -9.8% (27) -9.9% (59) -7.7% (61) -7.4% (27) -12.4% (94) 3 28 26 24 22 2 2 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 1 S&P 5 (2682.63) 1 8 5-day moving average (2849.) 2-day moving average (2765.84) 8 6 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 6 * Dips are declines of less than 1%. Corrections are declines of 1% to 2%. Bear markets are declines of 2% or more. Number of days in parentheses. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. 3 25 2 15 1 5 Figure 27. S&P 5 INDEX (as a percent of 2-day moving average) 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -5-1 -15-2 -25-3 -35-4 -45 % from 2-day moving average (-2.9) 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Standard & Poor s. -3-35 -4-45 Page 15 / October 3, 218 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.

S&P 5 Moving Averages 34 3 Figure 28. S&P 5 INDEX* 34 3 26 22 Latest price: 2682.63 5-dma: 2849.77 2-dma: 2763.97 26 22 18 18 14 14 1 1 (-) Latest price is -6.2% below the 5-dma. (-) Latest price is -3.% below the 2-dma. 6 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 6 * Ratio Scale Source: Standard & Poor s. 25 2 15 Figure 29. S&P 5 INDEX TECHNICALS THE DEATH CROSS & THE GOLDEN CROSS (5-dma relative to 2-dma, percent, weekly) 25 2 15 1 1 5 1/26 5-5 -5-1 -1-15 -15-2 -25-3 (3.) 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s Corporation. -2-25 -3 Page 16 / October 3, 218 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.

36 3 24 18 12 Figure 3. S&P 5* (price indexes) S&P 5 Sectors Stock Price Index & 2-dma INDUSTRIALS 875 725 575 425 275 6 11 85 6 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY* 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 125 1775 1375 975 35 575 1 675 575 475 375 275 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 CONSUMER STAPLES 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 MATERIALS 175 5 4 3 2 175 9 75 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 ENERGY 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 REAL ESTATE 1 29 24 19 6 14 45 9 3 825 675 525 375 225 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 FINANCIALS Includes Real Estate through September 216 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 COMMUNICATION SERVICES 4 235 195 155 115 75 1225 125 825 625 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 HEALTH CARE 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 UTILITIES 75 35 3 25 2 425 15 225 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 1 2-day moving average * S&P 5 sector price indexes on ratio scales. Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 17 / October 3, 218 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.

6 4 2-2 -4-6 4 2 S&P 5 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 2-dma Figure 31. S&P 5 (price index as percentage of 2-dma) % from 2-dma (-2.9) 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY INDUSTRIALS (-8.) 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 4 2-2 -4-6 4 2-2 -2-4 -6 3 15 (-5.1) 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 CONSUMER STAPLES (-3.2) 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 MATERIALS -4-6 4 2-2 -15-3 4 2 (5.2) 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 ENERGY (-11.6) 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 REAL ESTATE -4-6 5 25-2 -25-4 -6 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 3 (-8.3) 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 FINANCIALS Includes Real Estate through September 216 (-7.1) 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 HEALTH CARE (2.4) 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 COMMUNICATION SERVICES (-3.) 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 UTILITIES -5-75 4 2-2 -4 4 15 2-15 -2-3 (2.2) 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 (5.8) 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2-4 Source: Standard & Poor s. Page 18 / October 3, 218 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.

.35.3 S&P 5 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 5 Figure 32. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (as a ratio of S&P 5 Index) INDUSTRIALS.26.24.25.22.2.2.15 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2.18.35.3 CONSUMER STAPLES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY.5.45.4.25.35.2.3.25.15 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2.2.6.5.4 ENERGY MATERIALS.25.2.3.2.1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2.15.1.4 FINANCIALS TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES.16.14.3.12.1.2.1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2.8.6.4.45.4 HEALTH CARE UTILITIES.2.18.16.35.14.3.25 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2.12.1.8 Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 19 / October 3, 218 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.

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