Cars: a potential future? 11 th July 2017 Mark Barry Professor of Practice in Connectivity Cardiff University School of Geography and Planning July 2017 Please note: This presentation is based entirely on the views of Prof Mark Barry based on his knowledge and material already in the public domain and does not represent in any way the views, thoughts, intentions, plans, policies or strategies of Welsh Government, Transport for Wales, Cardiff University or any other organisation.
Professor of Practice in Connectivity at Cardiff University s School of Geography and Planning I have been working on #southwalesmetro since 2010 Procurement in progress.which means I can t discuss it! 2
Cars: a potential future? Some thoughts >Current situation >What are the technological, social & economic drivers >What might a future look like 3
Cars. > What do you notice? 4
Cars... > What do you notice? > n,000,000 s of cars that spend most of their time doing absolutely nothing! Massive and inefficient use of earths natural resources > We have to design cities to accommodate cars when they are not moving as well as when they are! > CO2 emissions climate change issues > Particulate emissions & air quality issues now a major health concern > 1700 people die each year on UK s roads ~5 per day, including 1 cyclist If the railways did that they would be closed down!!! 5
Why Cars? > Independent mobility > A liberating force since the beginning of the 20 th Century > Went hand in hand with growth of oil industry > Has had profound impact on urban landscape sprawl > Accelerated since 1950s > slow decline since 1990 6
History Most UK cities had tram networks into the 1950s 7
History Cardiff embraced the car in the 1960s/70s >cars, roads, motorways The oil price crisis of the early 1970s helped Cardiff dodge a bullet! 8
Growth in public transport use since 1990s New LR Systems since 1970s and now a #southwalesmetro 9
But what about today? > Today people still buy & use cars for many reasons convenience, cultural, work, pleasure > Public Transport options still often more expensive or just not available > Local taxi trip >> 5.mainly to pay the driver 10
Taxi Costs > What happens if you remove the driver?! With Driver: No economies of scale Low utilisation Cottage industry High unit costs & end user price Encourages personal car ownership Autonomous: More situated to a high volume service Fleet management giving high levels of utilisation, economies of scale & lower unit costs More attractive Vs owning one s own car?? 11
Car Safety > Autonomous safety systems will make roads safer > But will this really be appropriate for high speed motorways.many failure points >.separation will need to be maintained so a little more efficient use of road space? > So perhaps more applicable to low speed urban environment > Higher quality PT (train, LRT, BRT) still best for medium/high demand intra/inter regional corridors 12
Batteries > Supports climate change and emissions agenda > Battery technology holding back electric cars > Costs and power/energy density are a constraint > Charging and storage losses > Do we need 000 s of charging points? 13
Batteries > What happens to electricity generation and supply? > Total network transmission losses ~ 7-8% > Higher voltage transmission reduces energy losses > Smart grid will help as might local micro generation > Millions of low voltage charge points will need more power!! 14
Batteries > Maybe there is another model? > Battery stations instead of petrol stations > Depends on development of small modular batteries with higher energy density > See India & Chetan Maini s Sun Mobility https://factordaily.com/chetan-maini-reva-electric-car-battery-sun-mobility/ 15
Culture Change > Active Travel > Many more people now walking & cycling > Road safety for walkers and esp. cyclists still an issue > 5 road deaths every day on average in the UK 1 of which is a cyclist > Needs very different road/highway design to be safe/effective 16
Young persons perception of cars > Car insurance costs an increasing portion of peoples resources > Many happier with even poor public transport > More used to walking and cycling > Increasing urbanisation supports PT alternatives to car Cardiff pop. today ~360k; projected to exceed 400k within 10 yrs. ONS Population estimates 2015-2035 17
So a possible future > High Quality Mass transit for high demand inter/intra corridors HR, LR, BRT > Last mile & short journey driverless car PT service (some multi user) > More active travel > Much lower levels of personal car ownership > Demise of private taxi driver and low volume bus driver > Private driven cars excluded from some parts of city > Fewer car parks empty at day full overnight! > New urban realm /architecture with more and safer shared spaces > Much more efficient transport systems overall 18
Better & greener cities. 19
Mark Barry Professor of Practice in Connectivity Cardiff University, School of Geography and Planning Glamorgan Building King Edward VII Avenue Cardiff Wales CF10 3WA Mob: 07771 893292 Email: barrym9@cardiff.ac.uk mark@mgbarryconsulting.com