E-Highway2050 WP3 workshop April 15 th, 2014 Brussels Battery Storage Technology Assessment Lukas Sigrist, Comillas, Eric Peirano, TECHNOFI
Content Introduction Methodology Results Concluding remarks WP3 Workshop, April 15th 2014 2
Introduction (i) Why BESS? Mainly because of: Increasing amount of renewables (together with limitations of pumpedhydro storage and CAES systems) Shift to hybrid and electric vehicles within the automobile industry (V2G operation, secondary applications of automobile BESS) R&D activities in Smart and Micro Grids (BESS is an essential component) Market area with strongest growth: renewable integration, distributed storage and ancillary services No distinction between centralized and distributed BESS (size is application dependent and BESSs are highly modular systems) WP3 Workshop, April 15th 2014 3
Introduction (ii) Which BESS technologies? Lead acid, Still competitive: CSIRO s ultrabattery Nickel cadmium, Sodium sulfur, Zebra, Lithium ion, High temperature BESS From portable devices to the EV market Vanadium redox, Zinc bromine, and Regenesys Flow BESS Much attention over the last 30 years WP3 Workshop, April 15th 2014 4
Introduction (iii) Why these BESS technologies? Commercial and mature technologies will be used in the short term. Technologies close to commercialization and/or promising candidates will be used in the medium and long term as alternatives. Room for improvement in the engineering of current and new systems (use of a fraction of theoretical energy density) WP3 Workshop, April 15th 2014 5
Content Introduction Methodology Results Concluding remarks WP3 Workshop, April 15th 2014 6
Methodology (i) Current cost and performance figures are known. What about in 2050? Estimation of future trends is based on the analysis of publications. Main drivers for BESS evolution Evolution of EVs and RES Emergence of Smart and Micro Grids Technological evolution within the BESS industry Evolution of the regulatory context WP3 Workshop, April 15th 2014 7
Methodology (ii) Prediction of general BESS penetration Evolution of mature technologies Technological Evolution of BESS Comparison and unification of BESS trends EV and intermittent RES Data found in the literature has been temporally inter- or extrapolated. WP3 Workshop, April 15th 2014 8
Methodology (iii) The use of a large quantity of publications allows: Contrasting data and trends found Consistency of the projected trends Variance reduction The estimation of the trends is only as good as the available literature. Remember that most BESS technologies lack large and long field experience. WP3 Workshop, April 15th 2014 9
Content Introduction Methodology Results Concluding remarks WP3 Workshop, April 15th 2014 10
Energy density (Wh/kg) Results (i) An illustrative example for Lithium-ion energy densities Increase thanks to Li-Ion evolution Li-ion Contrast/ Compare 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 Years etc. Energy density (Wh/kg) Unify 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 75-200 150-400 225-600 260-700 285-750 WP3 Workshop, April 15th 2014 11
Efficiency (%) Results (ii) Another illustrative example on BESS efficiencies NaS constant, whereas Li-Ion and Zebra slowly increase 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Sodium ZEBRA Lithium ion etc. 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Years Use of mean value for extrapolation of each BESS Increases thanks to technological evolution of the battery Efficiency 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 Lithium ion 85-95 90-92 90-93 90-94 90-95 NaS and Zebra 70-90 70-80 75-85 75-85 75-85 Large variations due to lack of long field experience WP3 Workshop, April 15th 2014 12
Results (iii) Estimation of future power investment costs Cost ($/kw) 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 Lead acid 200-600 80-240 60-180 60-180 60-180 Nickel cadmium 500-1500 400-1200 300-900 300-900 300-900 Sodium sulfur Zebra 250-3000 225-2700 200-2400 175-2100 150-1800 Lithium ion 1200-4000 2000-600 400-900 387.5-587.5 387.5-587.5 Vanadium redox 600-1500 530-1300 450-1150 440-1100 430-1050 Zinc bromine 700-2500 630-2200 550-2000 530-1900 510-1800 Regensys 700-2500 700-2500 700-2500 700-2500 700-2500 Regensys remains constant since no R&D since 2009 Average values Lead acid is the cheapest BESS Lithium ion shows a strong reduction in power costs The costs of the remaining BESS decrease with a similar pace WP3 Workshop, April 15th 2014 13
Results (iv) Estimation of future life cycles Life cycles 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 Lead acid 500-2000 875-3500 1250-5000 1250-5000 1250-5000 Nickel cadmium 2000-2500 2500-3125 5000-6250 5000-6250 5000-6250 Sodium sulfur 2500 2825-3425 3450-4050 3450-4050 3450-4050 Lithium ion 2000-10000 4000 6000 7500 8500 Regensys remains constant since no R&D since 2009 10000-12500- 15000-16000- Vanadium redox 16000-22000 15000 17500 20000 22000 Zinc bromine 2000 2500 3000 3200 3400 Regensys 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 Average values Most technologies slow down or reach an asymptote around 2030. Today, life cycles of Lithium ion > 4000 only available at a very high cost WP3 Workshop, April 15th 2014 14
Content Introduction Methodology Results Concluding remarks WP3 Workshop, April 15th 2014 15
Conclusions A portfolio of BESS technologies up to 2050 has been presented. Future trends of costs and technical parameters have been estimated by analysing existing publications. Data found has been inter- and extrapolated. Development of BESS slows down and/or saturates around 2030 (mature technologies). Uncertainties have been provided (depend on drivers such as EV or RES penetration, etc.). WP3 Workshop, April 15th 2014 16
Thank you for your attention! WP3 Workshop, April 15th 2014 17
Results (i) The methodology has been applied to estimate the future values of variables classified into: Technology performance characteristics Technology readiness and maturity Implementation constraints Costs Environmental impact and public acceptance Supply chain issues Dynamic performance of technology Over 50 publications have been consulted. WP3 Workshop, April 15th 2014 18
Introduction (v) State of the art of the selected BESSs Lead acid Nickel cadmium High temperature Lithium ion Flow (VR) energy rating MWh 1-300 1-240 0-80 0-2 0-30 rated power MW 0-50 0-40 0.05-10 0-12 0.03-4 power density W/kg 75-300 150-300 150-230 150-315 energy density Wh/kg 30-50 50-75 150-240 75-200 10-30 electrical efficiency % 75-85 60-70 70-90 85-95 60-85 self discharge %/day 0.1-0.3 0.2-0.6 15-20 0.1-0.3 0.1-0.4 response time S 0.005 0.005 0.001-0.02 0.02 0.005-2 lifespan year 5-15 10-20 5-15 5-15 5-15 life cycles cycles 500-2000 2000-2500 2500 2000-10000 10000-15000 investment costs (power) $/kw 200-600 500-1500 250-3000 1200-4000 600-1500 investment costs (energy) $/kwh 175-400 800-1500 250-500 600-2500 150-1000 energy rating rated power power density < mean value > mean value Not specified energy density electrical efficiency self discharge response time lifespan life cycles investment costs (power) investment costs (energy) WP3 Workshop, April 15th 2014 19 Lead acid Nickel cadmium High temp. Lithium ion Flow
Applications ESS technology Introduction (vi) BESS are able to provide many different services (multi-tasking). Short duration Medium duration Long duration < 0.25h 1-10h 50-500h Power (MW) PHEV, EV PHEV, EV 0.1-1 PV-battery system PV-battery system Flywheels Lead-acid batteries Redox-flow batteries 0.1-100 Super-Capacitors Nickel-cadmium batteries SMES Lithium-ion batteries Lithium-ion batteries Sodium-suflur batteries Lead-acid batteries Redox-flow batteries Nickel-cadmium batteries Other electrochemical batteries Sodium-suflur batteries Pumped hydro storage Hydrogen storage 100-1000 Compressed air energy storage Methanation Thermoelectric (Pumped) hydro storage (with large water reservoirs) Primary/Secondary frequency control Tertiary frequency control Storage for dark calm periods (i.e., no wind or solar generation) Spinning reserve Standing reserve Island grids Peak shaving Load Leveling Energy time shift Power quality Load Following Electric supply capacity Voltage control Black start capability Island grids (with e.g. diesel generator) Electromobility (Hybrid Electric Vehicles) Uninterruptible power supply Transient stability Island grids Electromobility (Full Electric Vehicles) Residential storage systems Uninterruptible power supply Distribution upgrade deferral Transmission upgrade deferral Transmission congestion reliefe WP3 Workshop, April 15th 2014 20