WEEKLY CHANGE WEEKLY CHANGE 4, 2018 Wholesale markets show steady depreciation in values while overall consignment levels were reportedly lower last week. Anil Goyal, Executive Vice President, Operations +0.2% +$1 +0.01% +$8 +0.05% +$25 +0.06% -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% -$8-0.12% -$18-0.22% -$22-0.24% -$69-0.43% -$77-0.4 -$110-0.31% -$24 CARS -0.21% +0.4% +0.2% -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% -$5-0.04% -$14-0.11% -$14-0.09% $0 $0 -$73-0.37% -$56-0.26% -$86-0.26% +$8 +0.06% +$15 +0.17% -$23-0.15% -$15-0.09% -$14-0.07% -$17 TRUCKS -0.1 Model Years: 2010-2016, Volume Weighted Wholesale Average Values, Weekly Change from 5/25/18 to 6/1/18 Luxury Vehicles Depreciated Faster Volume-weighted, overall car segment values decreased by 0.21% last week. In comparison, the market values had decreased by 0.1 on average in the prior 4-week period. In cars, the luxury segments experienced the biggest drops. Volume-weighted, overall truck segment (including pickups, SUVs and vans) values decreased by 0.1 last week. In comparison, the market values had decreased by 0.04% on average in the prior 4- week period. In trucks, the luxury crossover/suv segments performed the worst.
4, 2018 Sentiment from the Auction Lanes Our editors and personnel attend about 60 auctions every week across the country to provide key insights: Consignment is still running low which is allowing the prices to remain fairly stable. Really nice vehicles are scarce and high. Tim in IN Consignment was down. I watched a couple of dealer lanes and it seemed as if they were still trying to fetch the spring price points which resulted in a lot of no-sales. Israel in GA A dealer stated that he is having to expand his buying area to find enough good, clean vehicles. David in PA The sellers are trying to hold their floors on trucks while luxury cars and older cars didn t sell well. Rick in FL Dealer consignment and bidding was down this week and prices were on the soft side. Sports cars are doing really well. k in MI 36-Month Residual Forecast by Segment on 2018 MY Vehicles Percent of Typically Equipped MSRP 2018 Publish Source: Black Book Visual Analytics The residuals are declining from current retention trends. At a specific vehicle segment, brand, and individual vehicle levels, residual forecasts show different trends. Vehicle Highlight 2019 INFINITI Q70 is offered in a 3.7L V6 or a 5.6L V8, producing 330 hp or 416 hp respectively. This mid-size luxury sedan also offers a Q70L long wheel base variant. This adds an extra 5.9 inches of rear-seat legroom. MSRP ranges from $51,295 to $68,595, including destination. The key competitors include the Lexus GS, Mercedes-Benz E Class, Genesis G80 and the BMW 5-series. This week s report includes our Monthly Edition Supplement on Specialty kets. 2
SPECIALTY MARKETS: COLLECTIBLE CARS 4, 2018 First 2017 Ford GT Sold at Auction Brings $1,650,000 Buyers of the limited production Ford GT coupe were required to keep their car for two years before selling it. Ford has filed a lawsuit against actor John Cena, and his car dealer, for prematurely selling his GT. With an original MSRP of $450,000, this seller made a profit of a little over $1,000,000, once various fees are considered. Mecum Auctions announced that a judge had approved the sale prior to the car crossing the block in Indianapolis. Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty kets 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8 Percent Change from to 2018 1.03% 0.78% 0.43% 0.17% 0.22% -0.6 Muscle Cars Pony Cars American Classics Sports Cars Exotic Cars Classic Trucks Mecum s Indianapolis auction, one of their larger sales, saw 1,406 of the 1,875 vehicles offered change hands, a sell through ratio of an impressive 76%. Total sales came in at just under $70,000,000, up roughly 25% from last year. Also notable was the large number of collections being broken up and sold to individual buyers. RM Sotheby s Monaco auction was as glamorous as you would expect, and resulted in total sales of roughly $28,000,000 and a 72% sell through rate, including a 2018 Lamborghini Huracan consigned by Pope Francis. RM Sotheby s Auburn Spring sale in Indiana did not quite match Monaco for star power, but resulted in a solid $6,000,000 on the sale of 252 of the 300 vehicles offered (84%) during the AACA Triple Crown Meet. Ford GT Coupe. Courtesy of Mecum Auctions. Notable Recent Auction Sales Include: 2017 Ford GT Coupe $1,650,000 (Mecum) 1931 Ford T-Bucket Hot Rod Kookie s Kar $484,000 (Mecum) 1969 Ford Mustang Boss 429 (Unrestored) $423,000 (Mecum) 2011 Ferrari 599 GTO $561,000 (Mecum) 2006 Ford GT Coupe $297,000 (RM Sotheby s) 2001 BMW Z8 Convertible $145,000 (RM Sotheby s) 1963 Rolls-Royce Phantom V Limousine $82,500 (RM Sotheby s) 1966 Ferrari 275 GTB Coupe $2,575,000 (RM Sotheby s) 2015 Bugatti Grand Sport Vitesse Conv $2,000,000 (RM Sotheby s) 1973 Porsche 911 Carrera Lightweight $1,500,000 (RM Sotheby s) 3
Jan-14 Jun Jul Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Sep Jan-18 Jan-14 Jun Jul Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Sep Jan-18 SPECIALTY MARKETS: RECREATIONAL VEHICLES 4, 2018 RV Volume at Auctions Soars as Weather Improves RV values at auction were mixed last month, with motorized units taking a big hit, while towables managed a small gain. With the exception of ruary, motor homes have been dropping consistently since last ober. Granted, that could change next month, but we should all be keeping an eye on it. On the volume side, motorized is essentially unchanged, but the volume of towables sold at auction spiked at last month, mirroring the performance of new models. Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty kets 55000 50000 Motor Home Value Trends 45000 40000 35000 30000 For Motor Homes (including Class A, B, and C) Average selling price was $42,591, down $2,862 (6.2%) from the previous month One year ago, the average selling price was $41,149 Auction volume was unchanged from the previous month 15000 14000 Travel Trailer and Fifth Wheel Value Trends 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 For Towables (including Travel Trailers and Fifth Wheels) Average selling price was $13,792, up $273 (2.1%) from the previous month One year ago, the average selling price was $13,591 Auction volume was up 2 from the previous month 4
SPECIALTY MARKETS: POWERSPORTS 4, 2018 Powersports ket Steady as Summer Begins Powersports values heading into summer are steady or up modestly for most segments. We are well into our second year of mostly stable values in the market that do not show the same level of seasonal variance between the highs and lows we have historically seen throughout the course of the year. Scott Yarbrough, Motorcycle & Powersports Editor Motorcycle & Powersports Percent Changes to 2018 3.5% 3. 2.8% 2.5% 2. 1.5% 1. 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 1.1% 1.4% 1. 0.2% 0.4% 0. -0.5% -1. -1.5% -2. -0.3% -0.1% -1.1% -1.5% Despite the fact that the variations in values from season to season mentioned above are not as dramatic as they used to be, the Powersports market has maintained average transaction prices at nearly the same levels as years past. The biggest jump in values this month is 2.8% for the Scooters, which due to their low average selling price, show percent changes a bit larger than the other more expensive segments. The only other segments to go up by one percent or more are the Dual Sports, Off-Road, and Street bikes, all up between 1% and 1.4%. Everything else shows basically no change in values, except the Snowmobiles, which are down 1.5%. Among the Cruisers, the overall segment shows no major changes, but the Metrics are actually up a bit, while Domestic V-Twins are down slightly. 5
Monthly Change SPECIALTY MARKETS: HEAVY DUTY 4, 2018 Wholesale Values for Heavy Duty Trucks Holds as Summertime Arrives Serious buyers showed up as Memorial Day weekend approached, while the volume of trucks at HD auction venues dropped, helping to stabilize prices. Charles Cathey - Heavy Duty Truck Editor Late model Over the Road Tractors had their best month in wholesale value retention in almost two years, while construction/vocational and regional tractors didn t move much at all. The older group of heavies held up very well also, even though their depreciation percentage is higher, which is fueled by small and medium size fleets stepping up and paying a little more for nice low mileage late models. While the larger fleets are waiting for their new trucks on order to arrive, the mileage on the turn-ins will rise as they age a little and I expect the wholesale values to begin to drop while depreciation climbs. We will not know how much and how quickly this decrease will really show up, but mileage is a bigger factor than in the past and as used truck needs become more satisfied, wholesale values will depreciate a little more each month as supply levels out with and potentially outpaces demand. Dry Vans, Refrigerated Vans, and Flatbeds appreciated again this month, as they did last month, as extended lead times on new trailers fuel the need for more and newer trailers. There are several factors that influence used truck and trailer prices making the need to stay informed ever increasing. $0 -$200 Average Wholesale Value Changes (ket) -$400 -$600 -$800 -$1,000 -$1,200 Construction/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors Construction/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors MODEL DATE Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change YEARS 06/01/18 87,672-262 -0.3% 69,349-193 -0.3% 61,376-243 -0.4% 2015-2016 05/01/18 87,934-321 -0.4% 69,542-306 -0.4% 61,619-263 -0.4% 2015-2016 Construction/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors MODEL DATE Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change YEARS 06/01/18 43,515-227 -0.5% 29,913-216 -0.7% 22,805-193 -0.8% 2007-2014 05/01/18 43,742-286 -0.6% 30,129-270 -0.9% 22,998-251 -1.1% 2007-2014 6
05/29/17 06/12/17 06/26/17 07/10/17 07/24/17 08/07/17 08/21/17 09/04/17 09/18/17 10/02/17 10/16/17 10/30/17 11/13/17 11/27/17 12/11/17 12/25/17 01/08/18 01/22/18 02/05/18 02/19/18 03/05/18 03/19/18 04/02/18 04/16/18 04/30/18 05/14/18 SPECIALTY MARKETS: MEDIUM DUTY 4, 2018 Continued Depreciation for Late Models The Wholesale ket continues its downward trend as we approach summer. Josh Giles - Senior Truck Editor This past month Older Units (2007-2014) dropped an average of $117 (0.6%), which is just $5 more than last month. While Late Models reported a positive trend compared to s results. Last month Late Models (2015-2016) dropped $296, which is a $15 improvement from last month. Overall, the wholesale market continues its downward trend as we approach the official start to summer. As we ve mentioned before new trucks are arriving at dealerships daily and this is helping put some downward pressure on some of the Late Models. Over the past couple of years, the market has depreciated a bit more through summer and fall and begins to stabilize towards the end of the year. It s going to be interesting to watch this segment as fuel prices continue to increase. It s amazing how much a segment can change. This time last year Medium Duty units from 2006 2013 were averaging $17,970. A year later the same age units are averaging $19,103, which is a difference of $1,133. With all the improvements that OEMs have made to their fleets over the past couple of years I except this number to continue to increase over the next few years. Medium Duty MODEL Medium Duty MODEL DATE Value $ Change % Change YEARS DATE Value $ Change % Change YEARS 06/01/18 19,103-117 -0.6% 2007-2014 06/01/18 45,050-296 -0.7% 2015-2017 05/01/18 19,219-112 -0.6% 2007-2014 05/01/18 44,807-311 -0.7% 2015-2016 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 U.S. Average Diesel Prices (This Year vs. Last Year) Diesel/This Year Diesel/Last Year Fuel prices have increased since last month s report. As a national average, we are currently paying $3.28 per gallon for diesel. This is $0.18 more than last month, and $0.74 more than this time last year. 1745 N. Brown Rd., Suite 130, Lawrenceville, GA 30043 1.866.452.1400 www.blackbook.com info@blackbook.com Opt-in to receive reports from Black Book at http://www.blackbook.com/insights/market-insights 7