US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade July 6, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents US Merchandise Trade 1-3 Petroleum & 4-5 US Trade by Major Categories 6-7 US Trade By Major Regions 8-9 US Trade By Major Partners 1-12 Export Share By Regions 13-14 West Coast Ports 15 Trade Deficits 16-18 July 6, 218 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade www.
US Merchandise Trade 19 17 1 Figure 1. REAL MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (billions of 212 dollars, saar) Monthly Data GDP Data 19 17 1 1 1 1 1 9 9 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 7 29 27 REAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS (billions of 212 dollars, saar) 29 27 2 2 2 2 2 2 19 19 17 1 Monthly Data GDP Data 17 1 1 1 1 - -45 - -55-6 -65-7 -75-8 -85-9 -95 - -15-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 REAL MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE Monthly Data (billions of 212 dollars) GDP Accounts* (billions of 5 dollars) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, and Haver Analytics. Q1 1 - -45 - -55-6 -65-7 -75-8 -85-9 -95 - -15-1 Page 1 / July 6, 218 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade www.
US Merchandise Trade 19 Figure 2. US: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (billion dollars, saar) 19 17 17 1 1 Nominal 1 Real (212 dollars) 1 1 1 9 9 7 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Bureau of the Census. 3 Figure 3. US MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (yearly percent change) 3 2 2 1 1-1 Nominal (13.9) Real (8.3) -1-2 -2-3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Bureau of the Census. -3 Page 2 / July 6, 218 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade www.
28 27 26 2 2 2 2 2 19 18 17 16 1 1 1 1 1 Figure 4. US MERCHANDISE IMPORTS (billion dollars, saar) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Bureau of the Census. Nominal Real (212 dollars) US Merchandise Trade 28 27 26 2 2 2 2 2 19 18 17 16 1 1 1 1 1 4 3 Figure 5. US MERCHANDISE IMPORTS (yearly percent change) 4 3 2 2 1 1-1 -2 Nominal (8.7) Real (4.7) -1-2 -3-3 -4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Bureau of the Census. -4 Page 3 / July 6, 218 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade www.
2 2 Figure 6. Petroleum & US EXPORT & IMPORTS EX PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (billion dollars, saar) 2 2 2 2 19 17 1 19 17 1 1 1 1 1 9 9 7 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 45 35 25 Figure 7. US IMPORTS MINUS EXPORTS (EX PETROLEUM PRODUCTS) (billion dollars, saar) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 45 35 25 Page 4 / July 6, 218 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade www.
7 65 6 55 45 35 25 Figure 8. Petroleum & US CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS EXPORTS & IMPORTS (billion dollars, saar) 7 65 6 55 45 35 25 15 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 15 5 Figure 9. US IMPORTS MINUS EXPORTS OF CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (billion dollars, 12-month sum) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Page 5 / July 6, 218 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade www.
US Trade by Major Categories 75 7 Figure 1. US MERCHANDISE EXPORTS & IMPORTS (billion dollars, saar) 75 7 65 6 55 Consumer Goods Ex Autos 65 6 55 45 45 35 35 25 25 15 15 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 5 75 7 Figure 11. US MERCHANDISE EXPORTS & IMPORTS (billion dollars, saar) 75 7 65 65 6 55 Capital Goods Ex Autos 6 55 45 45 35 35 25 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 25 Page 6 / July 6, 218 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade www.
35 Figure 12. US MERCHANDISE EXPORTS & IMPORTS (billion dollars, saar) Automobile Vehicles, Parts and Engines US Trade by Major Categories 35 25 25 15 15 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 5 15 95 Figure 13. US MERCHANDISE EXPORTS & IMPORTS (billion dollars, saar) 15 95 85 75 65 55 Industrial Materials & Supplies Ex Energy* 85 75 65 55 45 45 35 35 25 25 15 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 15 5 * Excludes crude oil, fuel oil and petroleum products, other. Page 7 / July 6, 218 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade www.
US Trade By Major Regions 7 65 Figure 14. US MERCHANDISE TRADE: EXPORTS & IMPORTS (6-month average, billion dollars, annual rate, nsa) 7 65 6 55 45 North America 6 55 45 35 35 25 25 6 55 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 6 55 45 35 Europe 45 35 25 25 15 36 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 15 36 32 28 24 Euro Area 32 28 24 16 16 12 12 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 8 Page 8 / July 6, 218 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade www.
9 8 7 6 Figure 15. US MERCHANDISE TRADE: EXPORTS & IMPORTS (6-month moving average, billions of US dollars, nsa) Pacific Rim US Trade By Major Regions 9 8 7 6 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 18 16 14 12 Latin America 16 14 12 8 8 6 6 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 4 Middle East 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Page 9 / July 6, 218 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade www.
6 Figure 16. US Trade By Major Partners US MERCHANDISE TRADE: EXPORTS & IMPORTS (6-month average, billion dollars, annual rate, nsa) 6 China 35 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 35 25 Mexico 25 15 15 5 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 5 5 4 3 Brazil 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Page 1 / July 6, 218 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade www.
US Trade By Major Partners 8 6 Figure 17. US MERCHANDISE TRADE: EXPORTS & IMPORTS (6-month average, billions dollars, annual rate, nsa) G6 Countries 8 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Canada 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 6 5 4 France 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 14 12 8 6 4 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Germany 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 1 14 12 8 6 4 2 Page 11 / July 6, 218 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade www.
6 5 4 Figure 18. US MERCHANDISE TRADE: EXPORTS & IMPORTS (6-month average, billion dollars, annual rate, nsa) Italy US Trade By Major Partners 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 16 14 14 12 12 Japan 8 8 6 6 4 7 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 United Kingdom 4 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 3 Page 12 / July 6, 218 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade www.
Export Share By Regions 4 39 Figure 19. SHARE OF US EXPORTS (6-month average, percent, nsa) 4 39 38 38 37 37 36 36 35 35 34 North America 34 33 33 32 32 31 31 3 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 2 19 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Europe 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 3 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 2 19 18 17 16 Euro Area 17 16 15 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 12 11 Page 13 / July 6, 218 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade www.
28 27 26 Figure 2. SHARE OF US EXPORTS (6-month average, percent, nsa) Export Share By Regions Pacific Rim 28 27 26 25 25 24 24 23 23 22 22 21 13 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 21 13 12 12 11 11 1 Latin America 1 9 9 8 8 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 7 Page 14 / July 6, 218 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade www.
85 8 75 7 65 6 55 45 35 25 15 5 Figure 21. WEST COAST PORTS CONTAINER TRAFFIC (TEUs, thousands) Inbound* (766.6) West Coast Ports Outbound* (311.1) 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 45 35 25 15 5 * Sum of Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach Loaded Containers. Source: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. 1 8 6 Figure 22. WEST COAST PORTS CONTAINER TRAFFIC (TEUs, millions, 12-month sum) Inbound* (8.7) Outbound* (3.4) 1 8 6 4 4 2 2 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 * Sum of Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach Loaded Containers. TEUs=2-foot equivalent units. Source: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Page 15 / July 6, 218 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade www.
Trade Deficits 95 9 Figure 23. US MERCHANDISE TRADE DEFICIT (billion dollars, 12-month sum) 95 9 85 8 75 Minus Minus (ex Petroleum Products) 85 8 75 7 7 65 65 6 6 55 55 45 45 35 35 25 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 25 Figure 24. US IMPORTS MINUS EXPORTS OF CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (billion dollars, 12-month sum) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Page 16 / July 6, 218 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade www.
Trade Deficits 35 Figure 25. US MERCHANDISE TRADE DEFICITS: BY COUNTRY (billion dollars, 12-month sum) 35 25 China (389.3) Eurozone (143.2) Japan (69.8) Mexico (71.4) 25 15 15 5 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Figure 26. US MERCHANDISE TRADE DEFICITS: BY PRODUCT CATEGORY (billion dollars, 12-month sum) Consumer Goods Ex Autos (418.5) Capital Goods Ex Autos (121.1) Automobile Vehicles, Parts, & Engines (.2) - 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 - Page 17 / July 6, 218 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade www.
Figure 27. Trade Deficits US INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS: BALANCE ON GOODS & SERVICES (billion dollars, 4-quarter sum) Q1 Goods (-829.7) Services (256.7) - - Q1-6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 - Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 18 / July 6, 218 / US Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade www.
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