Washington, D.C. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Released March 26, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on call Nick Streff at 202-720-3, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Hog Inventory down 3 Percent U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on March 1, 2010 was 64.0 million head. This was down 3 percent from March 1, and down 2 percent from December 1,. Breeding inventory, at 5.76 million head, was down 4 percent from last year and down 2 percent from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 58.2 million head, was down 3 percent from last year and down 2 percent from last quarter. The December -February 2010 pig crop, at 27.9 million head, was down 2 percent from and down 2 percent from. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2. million head, down 4 percent from and down 6 percent from. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high 9.61 for the December -February 2010 period, compared to 9.48 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.40 for operations with 1- hogs and pigs to for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs. Million Head U.S. Inventory March 1 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Mt An 4 (3-10)
U.S. hog producers intend to have 2. million sows farrow during the March-May 2010 quarter, down 4 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period in and down 5 percent from. Intended farrowings for June-August 2010, at 2.89 million sows, are down 2 percent from and down 6 percent from. The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 44 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory, down from 45 percent last year. Revisions All inventory and pig crop estimates for March through December were reviewed using slaughter, death loss and current import and export data. Based on this review, adjustments of less than one half of one percent were made to the June-August pig crop and September total inventory. An adjustment of less than one percent was made to the December total inventory. This report was approved on March 26, 2010. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Michael T. Scuse Acting Chairperson Joseph J. Prusacki March 2010 NASS, UA
Contents Page Quarterly U.S. Inventory by Class and Weight Group, -2010... 1 Quarterly U.S. Sows Farrowed, Pig Crop, and Pigs per Litter, -2010... 2 Quarterly U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation, -2010... 2 Hogs and Pigs: Inventory by and U.S., -2010 March 1... 5 June 1... 7 September 1... 9 December 1... 11 Farrowings: of Sows, Pigs per Litter, Pig Crop by and U.S.; -2010 December-February... 13 March-May... 14 June-August... 15 September-November... 16 Monthly U.S. Farrowings, December-November -2010... 17 Reliability ment... 18 Information Contacts... 19 March 2010 i NASS, UA
March 1 Inventory 1 All Hogs and Pigs Kept for Breeding Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory by Class, Weight Group, and Quarter, United s, -2010 Item 2010 2010 as a % 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 65,819 5,2 59,828 63,8 5,760 58,228 Market Hogs and Pigs by Weight Groups Under 50 Pounds 50-119 Pounds 120-179 Pounds 180 Pounds and Over 19,809 16,426 12,732 10,862 19,017 15,3 12,477 10,742 June 1 Inventory 1 All Hogs and Pigs Kept for Breeding Market 66,809 5,8 60,842 Market Hogs and Pigs by Weight Groups Under 50 Pounds 50-119 Pounds 120-179 Pounds 180 Pounds and Over 19,554 17,838 12,604 10,847 September 1 Inventory 1 All Hogs and Pigs Kept for Breeding Market 66,716 5,875 60,842 Market Hogs and Pigs by Weight Groups Under 50 Pounds 50-119 Pounds 120-179 Pounds 180 Pounds and Over 19,758 17,148 12,684 11,253 December 1 Inventory 1 All Hogs and Pigs Kept for Breeding Market 65,327 5,850 59,477 Market Hogs and Pigs by Weight Groups Under 50 Pounds 50-119 Pounds 120-179 Pounds 180 Pounds and Over 1 May not add due to rounding. 19,085 17,062 12,079 11,252 March 2010 1 NASS, UA
Sows Farrowing Dec-Feb 1 Mar-May 2 Dec-May 1 3 4 Farrowings: of Sows, Pig Crop, and Pigs per Litter, United s, -2010 Item 2010 2010 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent Percent 3,071 3,052 6,123 3,011 3,018 6,029 2,1 2,8 5,7 Jun-Aug 2 Sep-Nov Jun-Nov 3 3,075 3,028 6, 2,9 2,4 5,933 2,887 Pig Crop Dec-Feb 1 Mar-May Dec-May 1 3 28,388 28,631 57,019 28,552 29,012 57,564 27,873 Jun-Aug Sep-Nov Jun-Nov 3 29,240 28,771 58,011 28,718 28,833 57,551 Pigs per Litter Dec-Feb 1 Mar-May Dec-May 1 Percent Percent 9.24 9.38 9.31 9.48 9.61 9.55 9.61 Jun-Aug Sep-Nov Jun-Nov 9.51 9.51 1 December preceding year. 2 Intentions for 2010. 3 May not add due to rounding. 4 Actual farrowings for December -February 2010 plus intentions for March-May 2010. Dec-Feb 2 Mar-May Jun-Aug Sep-Nov Pig Crop Pigs per Litter: By Size of Operation, United s, -2010 Pigs per Litter on Operations Having 1 1- Head -4 Head 500-9 Head 1,000-1,9 Head 2,000-4,9 Head 5,000+ Head 7.30 7.40 7.40 7.40 8.10 8.10 8.20 8.10 8.40 8.50 8.60 8.50 9.00 9.10 9.10 9.20 2010 Dec-Feb 2 Mar-May Jun-Aug Sep-Nov 7.40 8.10 8.50 9.20 1 Pigs per litter rounded to the nearest tenth. 2 December preceding year. March 2010 2 NASS, UA
Head U.S. Quarterly Litter Rate December-February 9.20 9.00 8.80 8.60 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 U.S. Pigs per Litter By Size of Operation, December-February 2010 Head 10.50 10.00 9.61 9.20 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.50 7.40 8.10 8.50 7.00 All 1- -4 500-9 1,000-1,9 2,000-4,9 5,000+ March 2010 3 NASS, UA
Million Head U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed December-February 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Million Head U.S. Quarterly Pig Crop December-February 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 March 2010 4 NASS, UA
Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by and United s, March 1, -2010 Breeding Market Total 2010 2010 2010 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 480 1,040 165 110 580 365 385 0 1 75 480 2 1,010 180 110 550 355 365 880 1 410 145 60 75 107 109 63 5 3,820 3,280 18,460 1,655 930 6,820 2,585 2,815 8,420 1,810 1,0 1,020 1,160 9 625 580 3,920 3,310 17,8 1,630 0 6,650 2,645 2,635 8,220 1,880 1,880 1,045 5 5 625 83 59 740 4,300 3,550 19,500 1,820 1,040 7, 2,0 3,200 9, 1,0 2,340 1,110 1,310 1,0 0 730 4, 3,600 18,0 1,810 1,0 7,200 3,000 3,000 9, 2,050 2,2 1,140 1,110 650 0 85 60 Sts 1 487 435 89 2,3 2,803 3,389 3,238 US 2 5,2 5,760 59,828 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 2 May not add due to rounding. 58,228 65,819 63,8 Million Head 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 U.S. Hog Inventory & Market Hogs March 1 Inventory Market 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 March 2010 5 NASS, UA
Under 50 Lbs. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory by Weight Group,, and United s, March 1, -2010 50-119 Lbs. 120-179 Lbs. 180 Lbs. and Over 2010 2010 2010 2010 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 2 1,350 1,140 4,840 520 315 2,460 1,135 0 3,080 650 810 320 410 280 250 1,240 1,140 4,550 4 320 2,320 1,180 0 3,0 680 810 2 330 145 260 105 1, 0 5,560 320 265 1,930 585 820 2,160 500 420 305 2 230 145 115 1,200 930 5,4 325 250 2,010 5 800 1,0 545 360 320 240 130 7 620 4,6 2 160 1,3 465 610 1,710 3 210 200 245 200 120 80 7 640 4,510 280 1,330 465 560 1,750 415 230 215 200 140 120 125 600 580 3,3 525 1 1,040 425 1,4 500 1 215 110 115 6 600 3,360 535 205 0 410 375 1,500 240 480 215 1 155 115 Sts 1 9 1,017 751 658 592 567 562 562 US 2 19,809 19,017 16,426 15,3 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 2 Weight groups may not add to Market Hogs and Pigs due to rounding. 12,732 12,477 10,862 10,742 March 2010 6 NASS, UA
Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by and United s, June 1, - Breeding Market Total 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 460 2 1,080 1 580 380 380 1,020 165 105 480 1,020 1 110 580 345 3 0 1 155 75 93 110 91 83 610 3,8 3,360 18,320 1,610 930 6,920 2,720 3,020 9,080 1,725 1,0 1,085 1,280 5 680 5 3,8 3,330 18,780 1,620 0 6,920 2,5 2,910 8,710 1,840 1,8 1,060 1,135 925 645 107 89 760 4,350 3,650 19, 1,780 1,030 7,500 3, 3, 10, 1,8 2,360 1,180 1,430 1,0 7 740 4,350 3,600 19,800 1,7 1,060 7,500 3,050 3,300 9,0 2,010 2,2 1, 1,2 1,020 720 Sts 1 516 478 93 3,114 2,2 3,630 3,439 US 2 6,131 5,8 61,269 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 2 May not add due to rounding. 60,842 67, 66,809 Million Head 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 U.S. Hog Inventory & Market Hogs June 1 Inventory Market 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 March 2010 7 NASS, UA
Under 50 Lbs. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory by Weight Group,, and United s, June 1, - 50-119 Lbs. 120-179 Lbs. 180 Lbs. and Over 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 275 1,250 1,050 4,850 480 2 2,3 1,155 1,000 3,300 560 880 430 280 260 280 1,220 1, 4,850 465 325 2,3 1,205 0 3,0 640 7 320 3 265 250 1,140 1,030 5,640 3 265 2,050 685 930 2,550 505 410 355 355 260 164 125 1,220 1,040 5,0 380 2,140 630 880 2,350 535 350 305 255 155 850 6 4,450 260 1,4 475 650 1,760 220 235 255 205 137 7 630 4,530 160 1,380 455 630 1,740 3 210 205 225 205 120 115 650 610 3,380 480 1 1,030 405 440 1,4 260 450 210 240 220 119 115 640 560 3,420 4 180 1,030 415 420 1,530 510 215 200 120 Sts 1 1,092 1,034 832 808 600 574 591 547 US 2 19,807 19,554 17,711 17,838 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 2 Weight groups may not add to Market Hogs and Pigs due to rounding. 12,892 12,604 10,860 10,847 March 2010 8 NASS, UA
Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by and United s, September 1, - Breeding Market Total 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 4 280 1,0 1 5 375 375 1,000 165 85 105 85 4 280 1,010 160 110 560 350 380 0 160 410 80 110 93 67 600 3,930 3,320 18,730 1,640 0 7,030 2,775 2,925 9,300 1,755 2,060 1,035 1,210 1,015 715 580 3,780 3,320 18,6 1,600 0 6,740 2,0 2,920 9,020 1,8 1,0 1,030 1,130 930 680 108 93 92 750 4, 3,600 19,800 1,810 1,050 7,600 3, 3,300 10,300 1,920 2,460 1,120 1,360 1,120 800 730 4,250 3,600 19,0 1,760 1,060 7,300 3,050 3,300 10,000 2,050 2,360 1,120 1,280 1,000 760 107 89 Sts 1 511 465 91 3,145 2,932 93 3,656 3,3 93 US 2 6,061 5,875 62,135 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 2 May not add due to rounding. 60,842 68,1 66,716 Million Head 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 U.S. Hog Inventory & Market Hogs September 1 Inventory Market 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 March 2010 9 NASS, UA
Under 50 Lbs. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory by Weight Group,, and United s, September 1, - 50-119 Lbs. 120-179 Lbs. 180 Lbs. and Over 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 280 1,2 1,0 5,110 520 325 2,5 1,230 0 3,3 5 8 2 415 2 1,240 1,140 4,840 505 330 2,420 1, 0 3,200 675 830 3 260 265 135 1,140 1,000 5,680 350 2,0 685 880 2,380 515 410 335 325 280 1 120 1,130 0 5,760 330 265 2,010 635 860 2,3 540 380 310 300 230 155 840 620 4,460 275 1, 4 610 1,860 240 215 240 205 145 55 7 600 4,600 2 160 1,280 4 650 1,7 410 250 210 230 200 130 115 660 610 3,480 4 1 0 365 445 1,6 245 520 1 230 235 130 120 640 610 3,4 475 1 1,030 445 450 1,640 265 4 225 230 240 130 Sts 1 1,113 1,003 812 763 5 589 626 578 US 2 20,643 19,758 17,437 17,148 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 2 Weight groups may not add to Market Hogs and Pigs due to rounding. 12,855 12,684 11,201 11,253 March 2010 10 NASS, UA
Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by and United s, December 1, - Breeding Market Total 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 4 280 1,0 165 110 580 3 380 0 1 155 75 480 280 1,020 180 110 560 360 3 930 165 410 145 60 75 109 111 60 580 3,860 3, 18,830 1,575 920 6,920 2,780 2,0 8,720 1,7 2,000 1,030 1,125 1,020 665 560 3,820 3,3 18,180 1,630 0 6,740 2,740 2,730 8,6 1,845 1,8 1,060 1,015 710 655 105 92 730 4,350 3,550 19,0 1,740 1,030 7,500 3, 3,350 9,0 1,0 2, 1,120 1,280 1,120 740 710 4,300 3,650 19,200 1,810 1,080 7,300 3, 3, 9,600 2,010 2,300 1,160 1,160 7 730 105 93 91 69 Sts 1 4 455 92 3,052 2,892 3,548 3,347 US 2 6,062 5,850 61,087 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 2 May not add due to rounding. 59,477 67,148 65,327 Million Head 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 U.S. Hog Inventory & Market Hogs December 1 Inventory Market 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 March 2010 11 NASS, UA
Under 50 Lbs. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory by Weight Group,, and United s, December 1, - 50-119 Lbs. 120-179 Lbs. 180 Lbs. and Over 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1, 1,0 4,730 475 2 2,420 1,200 1,010 3,020 600 830 3 235 1,230 1, 4,530 480 335 2,410 1,160 930 3, 655 7 2 335 145 260 1,140 0 5,880 360 2,050 0 880 2,2 515 420 335 235 1 115 1,1 1,000 5,800 335 2,080 655 850 2,200 540 3 345 275 1 135 800 610 4,500 245 175 1,360 4 630 1,7 260 215 240 205 140 50 710 640 4,430 2 165 1,200 465 550 1,0 375 230 210 200 160 130 125 650 610 3,720 4 1,0 3 450 1,640 255 4 1 225 2 120 125 6 630 3,420 520 200 1,050 460 1,620 275 480 215 205 235 130 Sts 1 1,013 1,015 821 712 621 569 5 5 US 2 19,428 19,085 17,3 17,062 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 2 Weight groups may not add to Market Hogs and Pigs due to rounding. 12,731 12,079 11,533 11,252 March 2010 12 NASS, UA
Farrowings: of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by and United s, December-February -2010 Sows Farrowing 1 Pigs Pig Crop 1 2 2010 per Litter 1 2010 2010 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 75 250 140 500 81 53 1 530 88 1 40 83 46 42 71 265 140 475 83 54 1 175 4 1 47 79 31 40 92 118 67 8.60 9.30 9.10 9.75 9.35 9.75 9.55 8. 9.75 9.85 9.65 9.75 9.35 9. 10.00 9.35 9.45 10.20 8. 645 2,375 1,302 4,800 737 514 2,779 1,777 1,804 5,062 827 1,691 3 818 444 407 682 2,491 1,316 4,631 776 529 2,673 1,853 1,750 4,655 842 1,7 456 806 392 105 105 92 117 61 Sts 3 233 206 88 9.36 2,180 1,5 US 4 3,011 2,1 1 December preceding year. 2 of pigs born December-February that were still on hand March 1, or had been sold. 3 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 4 May not add due to rounding. 9.48 9.61 28,552 27,873 March 2010 13 NASS, UA
2010 2 Farrowings: of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by and United s, March-May -2010 Sows Farrowing Pigs Pig Crop 1 per Litter 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 81 230 145 520 80 53 1 550 89 41 85 51 41 72 250 135 4 81 54 1 540 88 42 86 48 43 74 265 140 480 87 56 1 180 4 87 47 77 29 39 107 87 112 60 91 8.85 9.35 9.10 9.35 9.10 9.35 9.45 9.45 8.60 10.00 9.00 9.65 9.65 9. 9. 9.00 9.75 10.10 9. 717 2,151 1,320 4,862 728 514 2,8 1,786 1,776 5,143 837 1,748 388 825 439 410 648 2,375 1,269 4,777 761 521 2,836 1,813 1,881 5,238 836 1,665 410 869 466 426 110 105 105 105 Sts 3 241 239 207 87 9.47 9.28 2,279 2,221 US 4 3,052 3,018 2,8 9.38 1 of pigs born March-May that were still on hand June 1, or had been sold. 9.61 28,631 29,012 2 Intentions. 3 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 4 May not add due to rounding. March 2010 14 NASS, UA
2010 2 Farrowings: of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by and United s, June-August -2010 Sows Farrowing Pigs Pig Crop 1 per Litter 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 76 240 145 510 81 53 1 560 89 1 38 82 52 43 72 245 135 475 80 56 275 540 86 1 42 82 44 42 74 265 480 86 52 1 175 460 89 47 75 28 39 108 111 108 93 85 112 91 64 93 8. 9.45 9.25 9.15 9.25 9.65 9.35 8.55 9. 9.75 9.25 10.00 10.00 10.05 10.00 10.00 9.00 10.00 676 2,268 1,341 4,7 741 4 2,793 1,892 1,7 5,404 846 1,823 365 804 445 426 684 2,328 1,283 4,631 740 538 2,750 1,850 1,859 5,238 826 1,805 420 820 3 420 110 115 89 Sts 3 246 225 207 92 9.45 2,337 2,130 91 US 4 3,075 2,9 2,887 1 of pigs born June-August that were still on hand September 1, or had been sold. 9.51 29,240 28,718 2 Intentions. 3 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 4 May not add due to rounding. March 2010 15 NASS, UA
Farrowings: of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by and United s, September-November - Sows Farrowing Pigs per Litter Pig Crop 1 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 71 255 140 510 76 53 200 520 89 40 84 50 40 260 135 500 85 56 1 180 520 87 1 46 80 31 40 112 115 62 8.80 9.20 9.65 9.85 9.65 9.55 9.00 9.20 9.35 9.55 10.00 9.45 9.55 9.35 10.05 9. 10.00 9. 10.10 9.35 625 2,3 1,288 4,845 714 512 2,807 1,930 1,813 4,6 801 1,2 374 823 478 665 2,457 1,289 4,0 7 549 2,864 1,881 1,800 4,2 818 1,805 455 808 2 392 111 107 122 61 Sts 2 245 219 89 9.37 9.47 2,2 2,073 US 3 3,028 2,4 28,771 1 of pigs born September-November that were still on hand December 1, or had been sold. 2 Individual estimates not available for the 34 er s. 3 May not add due to rounding. 28,833 March 2010 16 NASS, UA
Dec 2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Month Monthly Farrowings: of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop, United s, December-November -2010 Sows Farrowing 1 Pigs per Litter Pig Crop 1 2010 2010 2010 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 9 1,013 1,001 1,009 1,003 1,006 9 6 8 1,009 7 8 0 0 2 9.45 9.49 9.56 9.61 9.66 9.71 9.69 9.71 9.68 9.62 9.58 9.62 9,475 9,576 9,501 9,650 9,644 9,718 9,673 9,567 9,478 9,7 9,574 9,465 9,425 9,292 9,156 Total 11,3 9.62 1 Monthly values may not add to quarterly or annual totals due to rounding. 2 December preceding year. 115,115 March 2010 17 NASS, UA
Reliability of March 1 Hogs and Pigs Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of roughly 8,0 U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all hog and pig producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. During the first half of March 2010, data were collected from about 7,000 operations, 81 percent of the total sample. The data collected were received by electronic data reporting (EDR), mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Regardless of when operations responded, they were asked to report inventories as of March 1, 2010. Estimation Procedures: Hogs and pigs estimates were prepared by the after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each field office. National and survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past years using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds the estimates of births and imports, and subtracts the estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve quarter to quarter relationships. Estimates for the previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates are made. In December, estimates for all quarters of the current and previous year are reviewed. The reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising hogs are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The affects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the difference between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for hog inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters is 1.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 64.0 million head by more than 1.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.7 percent. March 2010 18 NASS, UA
Item All Hogs & Pigs Root Mean Square Error Reliability of March 1 Hog Estimates % Confidence Level Difference Between First and Latest Estimates Average Smallest Largest First Above Latest Quarters First Below Latest Percent Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1.6 2.7 1,728 717 67 3,067 5 15 Pig Crop 2.0 3.4 8 371 0 1,644 5 14 Expected Farrowings Next Quarter 2.4 4.1 119 47 3 216 4 16 Following Quarter 2.6 4.5 130 50 3 220 4 16 Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch... (202) 720-35 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section... (202) 6-2424 Jim Collom Dairy Products... (202) 6-3236 Joe Gaynor Dairy Products Prices... (202) 6-2168 Jason Hardegree Cattle, Cattle on Feed... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen Livestock Slaughter... (515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert Sheep and Goats... (202) 720-4751 Mike Miller Milk Production and Milk Cows... (202) 720-3278 Nick Streff Hogs and Pigs... (202) 720-3 March 2010 19 NASS, UA
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