Automotive Market: Where Do We Go From Here? June, 3 rd 211 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Eighteenth Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium Jeff Schuster Executive Director, Forecasting and Analysis jeff.schuster@jdpa.com
Agenda Global Environment U.S. Light Vehicle Outlook Alternative Powertrain Trend Summary 2
Global Light Vehicle Sales Trend The Global selling rate has pulled by from the highs at the beginning of the year, with impact from the Japan disaster and a slowing China 8 78 76 74 72 7 68 66 64 62 6 58 56 54 52 5 Feb '8 76. 7.4 72.3 66.7 64.1 Apr '11 61.8 66. 63.9 58.7 C 57.1 56.7 56.6 51.4 54.8 Jan '9 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 Monthly (S.A.) Smoothed Annual Total 3
211 Global LV Sales Growth Stabilizes Global: 76.M 6% N. America: 15.5M 11% Europe: 18.6M 2% S. America: 5.2M 7% Asia: 31.M 3% Germany: 3.4M 1% Russia: 2.1M 11% Japan: 4.M (18%) China: 18.4M 7% USA: 13.M 12% Brazil: 3.6M 8% India: 3.2M 17% 4
Tohoku Earthquake: Short-Term (through 2Q) Impact on the Production Europe North America - 45K (March June 211) - 1K (March June 211) Asia/Pacific - 1.6M (March June 211) South America - 11K (March June 211) TOTAL - 2.2M (March June 211) 5
Production Forecasts 211 Impact on Year North America 12.8M, -4K Europe 19.9M, +2K (not Japan related) Risk ~ -5K Risk ~ -1K Asia/Pacific 38.4M, -45K Risk ~ -69K South America 4.6M, No change Risk ~ -2K TOTAL 77.9M, -49K Risk ~ -86K The risk figure represents our current take on potential impact to 211 volume if production is not returned to near normal levels by 4Q11. There is additional risk in supplier capacity constraints in 2H11. This is not a worst case risk assessment. 6
Global LV Sales Expected to Cross 1M by 215 Millions 12 11 1 13 9 85 92 97 8 76 82 7 6 64 7 67 66 64 72 74 5 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 7
Growth Has Become Strongly Dependent on Emerging Markets Millions 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Global Light Vehicle Sales Emerging 51% 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Mature Emerging Mature markets are expected to recover former levels, but not until 215! Emerging markets with China at the forefront have overtaken the mature markets and won t look back! 8
China USA China USA Mexico Spain Korea Canada Iran UK Italy France Russia Germany Japan Brazil India Australia Spain Iran Korea Canada Russia Italy UK France India Germany Brazil Japan Top 15 Global LV Markets Continue to Shift by 215 Millions 3 25 Top 15 LV Markets - 21 Top 15 LV Markets - 215 Millions 3 Top 15 = 58M (8%) Top 15 = 84M (82%) 25 2 2 15 15 1 1 5 5 9
Agenda Global Environment U.S. Light Vehicle Outlook Alternative Powertrain Trends Summary 1
North American LV Sales Climb Toward Pre-crisis Levels Millions 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 USA Canada Mexico 17.4 +12% 15.5 1. 13.9 1.7.9 12.6 +11%.8 1.6 +1%.8 1.6 1.5 14.7 13. 11.6 1.4 29 21 211 212 U.S. strong through April but hits speed bump in May - upside potential vaporizes Canada s slightly ahead of expectations YTD, growth in 211 expected at 3% Mexico posted an 9% increase in 21 and is expected to grow at a similar pace in 211, heavily dependant on the US economic recovery 11
Retail Sales SAAR Shows Momentum Through April Millions 16 14 12 CARS Peak Speed bump? Payback 1 8 Trough 6 4 Jan- 8 Mar- 8 May- 8 Jul- 8 Sep- 8 Nov- 8 Jan- 9 Mar- 9 May- 9 Jul- 9 Sep- 9 Nov- 9 Jan- 1 Mar- 1 May- 1 Jul- 1 Sep- 1 Nov- 1 Jan- 11 Mar- 11 May- 11 12
Volume 211 U.S. Retail Sales: Recovery s 2 nd Gear? Total Sales Total Sales 11.6 Risk variables increasing: no increase to forecast and 15K of further downside 13. 1.6 Risk 15% YoY 8.6 9.2 1.4 29 21 1. Disposable Income 2. Unemp. 3. Housing Market 4. Stock Market 5. Fuel Prices 6. Credit Avail. 7. Vehicle Equity 8. 9. Vehicle Price Incentive Actions 1. Product Activity 211 JDPA Macro Factors Consumer Internals & OEM Drivers 13
North America Imported Inventory Challenges Imported models seeing inventory shortages in some regions due to the recent Japan earthquake/tsunami. Highlights of select models include: Toyota Prius Honda Civic Nissan Juke Subaru Legacy Days Supply - 1 Days Supply - 23 Days Supply - 19 Days Supply - 34 Brand Days Supply Toyota 48 Lexus 39 Scion 43 Honda 36 Acura 51 Nissan 64 Infiniti 85 Subaru 36 Some Japanese OEM s have reduced incentives in May as their vehicle inventory lessens lower incentives are expected to continue though the summer Select North American produced models also could face shortages into June as volume starts to normalize Some models, such as the Toyota Prius and Lexus CT-2H virtually ran out in May, Ward s Automotive 14
Japan Disaster - North America Production Impact Millions 4. 3.8 3.5 3.3 3. 2.8 2.5 Millions 15. 14. 13. 12. 11. Short-Term Production Impact Pre-crisis Forecast Revised Production Risk 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 11.8 211/212 Production Impact Risk: ~ -1K 12.8 12.7 13.9 Impact on North American Japanese OEM production has been more severe than initially expected. Current short-term is projected at -45K in 2Q; we expect most of this to be made up in 3Q and 4Q (loss of 4K). The topline volume to be made up is now expected to split between the Japanese and non- Japanese OEMs through the remainder of the year, but capacity constraints come into play in the small segments. Our forecast now assumes that a majority of the cuts have been announced or planned, so further risk has been reduced. Inventory started May at a 54-day supply unchanged from early April; Expect it to be in mid- 4s at end of May. Our NA topline now rounds down to 12.8M from 12.9M and there remains an additional 1K of risk through the summer. 1. 21 211 212 15
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Forecast Slow, Progressive Recovery! Base Case Forecast Trend Fleet mix expected to settle around 18% Total Sales 14% Retail Sales 16.7 16.9 17 16.5 16.1-21% 11% 12% 14.7 15.7 16.3 16.5 14. 13.8 13.2 13. 12.8 13.2 1.4 11.6 13. 12.1 12.9 13.3 13.5 1.6 1.6 8.6 9.2 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 16
Models Model Activity Reignites Hyper-competitive Market New Entry Redesign Facelift Drops 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 Net: -4-26 12 1-22 -3 26 1 17
Product Activity Skews Toward Small 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% Small Share of Model Activity 5% % 28 29 21 211 212 213 18
Small Car Share Will Grow, But A/B/C Car Segment Share of Industry 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Western Europe Brazil Japan Global 2% 1% US % 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Small car demand grows as fuel prices rise and availability increase (push and pull) Product activity skews toward small vehicles over next three years Regulations will continue to force the issue, but still 6-1 years out and is it what consumers want? Demand in U.S. expected to remain significantly below rest of world 19
U.S. Future Size/Price Landscape Remains Balanced Premium 12% Sub- Compact 1% Compact 23% Premium 15% Sub- Compact 6% Compact 31% Large 17% 21 Large 27% Midsize 38% 25 Premium 13% Sub- Compact 3% Compact 29% Midsize 32% 215 Large 2% Midsize 35% Shift to non-premium small will be more pronounced and will likely lead to additional body types Premium growth is expected, but at smaller end of market with new products Large (including pickup trucks) will suffer continued decline, but will not be extinct 2
Agenda Global Environment U.S. Light Vehicle Outlook Alternative Powertrain Trends Summary 21
Global Hybrid/EV Sales to Top Four Million by 218 Global Hybrid/EV Sales by Type 5,, 4,5, 4,, Hybrid BEV FHEV PHEV EREV FCEV MHEV BEV 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, - 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 22
U.S. Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Forecast Millions 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 IC ONLY HEV/BEV Hybrid and EV share 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Hybrid sales peaked at 353, units in 27 Hybrid and EV sales finished 21 at 275,; Toyota Prius continues to dominate, accounting for 5% of hybrid sales 216 CAFE requirements will help hybrid sales reach 1.4m units by 215, representing 8% of light vehicle sales Less than 1k BEVs by 215, but 15k PHEVs. 23
U.S. Light Vehicle Demand Breakdown by Fuel Type Hybrid 2.4% Diesel 2.6% Flex 8.7% Electric.2% Diesel 6.8% Hybrid 7.7% Flex 1.% Electric.5% Diesel 8.5% Hybrid 1.% Flex 8.% Electric 1.% Gas 86.% Gas 74.% Gas 72.5% 21 215 22 Flex fuel vehicles currently have the highest share of the alternative fuel market, but consumers mostly power them with gasoline We expect about 1/4 light vehicles sold in the U.S. to be an alternative fuel vehicle by 215 and 27.5% by 22 Gasoline-electric hybrids are expected to grow at a faster rate than diesels Electric vehicle share is expected to remain below 1% until 22 24
Agenda Global Environment U.S. Light Vehicle Outlook Alternative Powertrain Trends Summary 25
Summary Global automotive environment split between emerging and mature U.S. market continues recovery, but not without risks! Supply and demand discipline is holding Volume will return to 16 million level, but long road ahead Small and Alternative Power will grow, but balance is key 26
Real-Time Market Intelligence 27