AECOM 30 Leek Cres., 4 th Floor Richmond Hill, ON L4B 4N4 Canada

\ AECOM 30 Leek Cres., 4 th Floor Richmond Hill, ON L4B 4N4 Canada www.aecom.com 905-882-4401 tel 905-882-4399 fax Memorandum To CC Subject Peter Dorton (MTO), Eric Terro (MTO) Olga Garces (MTO) Page 1 Mike Neumann (Ainley) Highway 400 / Pooles Road Interchange Needs and Justification Traffic Analysis From Ilya Sher (AECOM) Davoud Shirazi (AECOM) Date June 23, 2015 Introduction The following provides a Needs and Justification assessment for the future Highway 400/Pooles Road interchange in the Township of Springwater. AECOM was retained by the Township of Springwater through Ainley Consulting Group to undertake a Needs and Justification study for the Highway 400 interchange at Pooles Road. The Needs and Justification assessment was generally built on the following background studies: 1. Simcoe Area Multi-Modal Transportation Strategy (MTO); 2. The on-going Highway 400 Widening from Highway 89 to the Highway 11 Split Preliminary Design (MTO); and 3. Midhurst Environmental Assessment and Transportation Master Plan (Township of Springwater). In order to determine future travel demands within the specified area, a modeling approach was developed and adopted, which was based on anticipated land uses as per the Midhurst Master Plan. Subarea models obtained from the Strategic Area Forecasting Office (SAFO MTO) were used to project traffic volumes into the future horizon years of 2031 and 2041. Information on provincial and municipal road network assumptions were obtained from both studies, and are discussed later in this report. Future population and employment figures for the Midhurst community were obtained from the Midhurst Transportation Master Plan study undertaken by Ainley Group for the Township of Springwater. The study area is illustrated in Figure 1.

P a g e 2 Figure 1. Midhurst Study Area MIDHURST Background Studies Simcoe Area Multi-Modal Transportation Strategy (MTO) The purpose of the study was to develop 2011, 2021, 2031 and 2041 multi-modal travel demand forecast models (weekday AM and Sunday) for the Simcoe Area. The study tested various transportation scenarios pertaining not only to improvements to the existing vehicular capacity, but also considering various TDM and transit initiatives. Although the study did not provide recommendations, it did identify anticipated capacity constraints/requirements for each scenario analyzed. The following general scenarios were assessed: 1. Maximize Transit; 2. Optimize Existing Capacity (maximize transit and optimize the existing road network); 3. A: New Transportation Corridors (Scenarios 1 and 2 plus build a new corridor west of Highway 400; and B: New Transportation Corridors (Scenarios 1 and 2 plus build a new corridor east of Highway 400). Scenario 3A incorporates a Highway 427 Extension to north of Barrie, while Scenario 3B has Highway 404 extending to Highway 12. Both scenarios also incorporate other improvements to the road network, including the Bradford Bypass between Highway 404 and Highway 427 Extension with a connection at Highway 400. It should be noted that the cross-section of the Highway 400 corridor north of Highway 9 was assumed to be as per the earlier Environmental Assessment and Preliminary Design recommendations, which suggested that Highway 400 would require 10 lanes by the ultimate horizon year (2011 at that time).

P a g e 3 The study results showed that Highway 400 would operate acceptably by the 2041 horizon year under both Scenarios 3A and 3B (Scenario 3A yields slightly better operations along the freeway corridor). As previously noted, both Scenarios 3A and 3B assumed transit improvements and optimization of existing capacity (existing road network) along with the new freeway corridors. Springwater Transportation Master Plan The Springwater Transportation Master Plan identified road improvements required to facilitate anticipated growth in population and employment, specifically within the Midhurst Community. The study identified a significant growth in population within the community by the 2031 horizon year, which triggers various improvements within and outside the immediate area. One of the improvements identified was a partial interchange with Highway 400 at Pooles Road (to and from the south). Other road network improvements within Midhurst are illustrated in Figure 9. Highway 400 Widening from Highway 89 to Highway 11 At the time of preparation of this report, the Highway 400 Widening Preliminary Design project was still ongoing. The study s objective is to determine needs for a freeway widening by the ultimate horizon year of 2031. The study is building on the previously completed Simcoe Area Multi-Modal Transportation Strategy study. The travel demand and forecast component is being undertaken using subarea models obtained from the Simcoe Area model with certain assumptions with respect to provincial road network improvements. Specifically, the study assumes that Highway 427 Extension would only be extended to King Road by the 2031 horizon year, while Highway 404 would be extended to Ravenshoe Road/Woodbine Avenue. With respect to the Midhurst community, population and employment growth assumptions within the community were not as significant as were identified in the Midhurst Transportation Master Plan (discussed later in this report). Current Study (Highway 400/Pooles Road Interchange Needs and Justification) The purpose of this study is to assess needs and justification for a potential partial interchange at Pooles Road and Highway 400. The earlier listed background studies were used to develop assumptions and a basis for the analysis. Specifically, the 2031 horizon year was selected for Phase I completion (currently approved) and the 2041 horizon year was selected as the ultimate horizon year for a full build out of the Midhurst development as per the Midhurst Transportation Master Plan. Since the recommendations from the Highway 400 widening EA and PD study were not available at the time of this report, assumptions with respect to Highway 400 improvements were made, which were primarily based on the results of the previously completed EA and Preliminary Design project for the subject Highway 400 corridor and work completed to date on the concurrent Highway 400 widening EA and PD. Other assumptions are listed below: Phase I Horizon Year - 2031 Ultimate Horizon Year 2041; Peak Hour Weekday AM; Highway 400 cross-section Ten lanes south of Duckworth Street, eight lanes from Duckworth Street to Highway 11; Bradford Bypass between Highway 404 and Highway 400; Highway 427 Extension to King Road; Highway 404 Extension to Ravenshoe/Woodbine; Road network improvements within Midhurst As per the Midhurst Transportation Master Plan; Population/Employment for Midhurst As per the Midhurst Transportation Master Plan; and Population/Employment for Simcoe and GTA Ontario Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Places to Grow). Figure 2 illustrates locations of the proposed developments within the Midhurst community (Source: Midhurst Transportation Master Plan Study by Ainley Group).

P a g e 4 Model Calibration/Validation The EMME 4 platform was selected for the travel demand forecast component of the study. The subarea model used in this analysis is also being used in the concurrent Highway 400 Widening EA and PD study. It should be noted that the model validation for the latter was completed at the time of preparation of this report. The weekday AM peak hour model was calibrated and validated based on screenline volumes and Highway 400 link volumes at key locations. For the purpose of this assignment, additional screenlines were selected around the Midhurst community as depicted in Figure 3. After reviewing the road network within Midhurst in the subarea model as provided by SAFO, AECOM refined the network by including roadways, which would help to fine-tune existing and future traffic assignments in the immediate area. The differences between the road network from the original subarea from SAFO and the fine-tuned one are depicted in Figure 4. It should also be noted certain connectors to the traffic zones within the immediate study area were adjusted to replicate a more reasonable assignment of traffic to the surrounding links. One example includes a removal of a connector to Highway 93 from one of the Midhurst traffic zones, which had substantial traffic volumes bypass adjacent links, resulting in unreasonable traffic assignment. This adjustment saw additional traffic utilizing Highway 400 via Forbes Road rather than via Highway 93. Upon completion of the road network refinement within Midhurst, the AM peak hour matrix (2011) was assigned to the network and checked for accuracy while comparing the overall results against the original subarea model. The results of the screenline analysis are illustrated in Table 1. It should be noted that actual traffic volumes were obtained from MTO, and include ATR counts on all Simcoe County Roads, undertaken between 2009 and 2011 (collected as part of the Simcoe Area Multi-Modal Transportation Strategy study). In addition, most recent traffic volumes (AADT) were obtained from the City of Barrie web site for St Vincent Street and Anne Street to complete the screnlines. Daily traffic volumes were converted to directional peak hour volumes based on a review of applicable conversion factors (AADT to DHV) for highways with similar classification, as well as directional distribution of traffic on the adjacent roads. Figure 2. Midhurst Transportation Master Plan Proposed Developments Source: Transportation Master Plan (Ainley Group)

P a g e 5 Figure 3. Additional Screenlines Around Midhurst Area In general, all screenline volumes revealed a close match with actual traffic volumes obtained from previous surveys. The table above also provides GEH factors used to determine correlation between actual and modeled traffic volumes. Factors below 5.0 suggest close correlation, while factors between 5 and 10 typically require more investigation. GEH factors above 10 typically suggest no correlation between modeled and actual traffic volumes. Screenline 2 in the northbound direction has a GEH factor of 8.68, which suggests not as strong of a match in the off-peak direction. Screenline 3 volumes (both directions) in the model were found to differ significantly from volumes from actual traffic surveys. A further analysis revealed that based on traffic surveys, morning peak hours on certain roads occur at different times between 6 AM and 9 AM, and in some cases later in the morning. Lower volumes were noted on Simcoe Roads 22 and 43 between 6 AM and 9 AM. Since the predominant movement of traffic in the AM peak hour is southward, Screenlines 1 and 2 (especially in the southbound direction) are considered to be the most crucial of the four. As such, the model is considered to be suitable for further analysis and forecast to the horizon years of 2031 and 2041 with and without the Midhurst development as per the Midhurst Transportation Master Plan.

P a g e 6 Figure 4. Road Network Refinements Midhurst Area Simcoe Subarea Model Modified Subarea Model Table 1. Screenline Analysis Results Screenline 1 ScreenLine - Station Description 2011 Subarea (AM) 2010 Actual (AM) SB Simcoe Rd 28 N of Barrie N Lmt 528 226 SB Hwy 400 N of Hwy 11 Split 1576 1969 SB Simcoe Rd 93 N of Hwy 11 Split 126 217 SB Hwy 26 N of Barrie N Lmt 985 891 SB Simcoe Road 53 N of Barrie N Lmt 406 275 GEH SB St Vincent Street N of Barrie N Lmt 303 456 0.73 SB Anne Street N of Barrie N Lmt 406 248 Total 4330 4282 Screenline 1 ScreenLine - Station Description 2011 Subarea (AM) 2010 Actual (AM) NB Simcoe Rd 28 N of Barrie N Lmt 245 102 NB Hwy 400 N of Hwy 11 Split 625 787 NB Simcoe Rd 93 N of Hwy 11 Split 77 97 GEH NB Hwy 26 N of Barrie N Lmt 199 483 3.29 NB Simcoe Road 53 N of Barrie N Lmt 371 181 NB St Vincent Street N of Barrie N Lmt 123 124 NB Anne Street N of Barrie N Lmt 371 72 Total 1518 1649 Screenline 2 ScreenLine - Station Description 2011 Subarea (AM) 2010 Actual (AM) GEH SB Hwy 26 N of Rd 28 783 305 2.16 SB Simcoe Rd 27 N of Forbes 558 489 SB Hwy 400 N of Forbes 1302 1713 SB Simcoe Rd 93 N of Forbes 1 250 Total 2644 2756 Screenline 2 ScreenLine - Station Description 2011 Subarea (AM) 2010 Actual (AM) GEH NB Hwy 26 N of Rd 28 324 165 8.68 NB Simcoe Rd 27 N of Forbes 121 387 NB Hwy 400 N of Forbes 587 685 NB Simcoe Rd 93 N of Forbes 0 94 Total 1032 1330 Screenline 3 ScreenLine - Station Description 2011 Subarea (AM) 2010 Actual (AM) EB Simcoe Rd 22 E of Simcoe Rd 29 310 132 EB Simcoe Rd 43 E of Simcoe Rd 28 281 48 EB Simcoe Rd 40 E of Simcoe Rd 28 290 230 EB Simcoe Rd 90 E of Simcoe Rd 27 968 730 GEH Total 1849 1140 18.34 Screenline 3 ScreenLine - Station Description 2011 Subarea (AM) 2010 Actual (AM) WB Simcoe Rd 22 E of Simcoe Rd 29 410 87 WB Simcoe Rd 43 E of Simcoe Rd 28 276 37 WB Simcoe Rd 40 E of Simcoe Rd 28 629 116 WB Simcoe Rd 90 E of Simcoe Rd 27 579 633 GEH Total 1894 873 27.45 Screenline 4 ScreenLine - Station Description 2011 Subarea (AM) 2010 Actual (AM) EB Simcoe Rd 22 E of Hwy 400 150 158 EB Simcoe Rd 11 E of Hwy 400 101 108 GEH Total 251 266 0.93 Screenline 4 ScreenLine - Station Description 2011 Subarea (AM) 2010 Simcoe Volume (veh) WB Simcoe Rd 22 E of Hwy 400 179 198 WB Simcoe Rd 11 E of Hwy 400 264 142 GEH Total 443 340 5.21

P a g e 7 Development of Future Traffic Matrices Methodology The methodology of developing traffic matrices includes a review and comparison of population and employment forecasts between the two sources: Simcoe Subarea Model and Midhurst Transportation Master Plan. Trip generation for the subject lands is obtained from the Transportation Master Plan study assumptions, as well as the BA Group memorandum dated May 23, 2014, and entitled Update to EA Traffic Forecasts Based on Updated Employment Estimates, while trip distribution is based on the Transportation Tomorrow Survey data, which was also used to develop matrices for the subarea model. Assumptions in terms of the internal and linked trips within the future developments were based on the discussions outlined in the previously noted reports/documents. Population and Employment Forecast Population and employment figures for the entire subarea model (on the traffic zone basis) were obtained from the Ministry of Transportation. A comparison between these forecasts against the ones from the Midhurst Transportation Master Plan was made, with an emphasis on traffic zones within Midhurst. Figures 5 and 6 illustrate traffic zones from the subarea model. The Midhurst service area comprises seven traffic analysis zones in the SAFO Simcoe Subarea Model. Table 2 summarizes population and employment forecast by zone as per the SAFO Simcoe Subarea Model. It should be noted that the proposed development area as outlined in the Midhurst Transportation Master Plan overlaps with the following four traffic zones: 8875, 8878, 8881, and 8882. Figure 5. Township of Springwater Traffic Zone Map (Source: SAFO Simcoe Subarea Model)

P a g e 8 Figure 6. Midhurst Traffic Zone Map (Source: SAFO Simcoe Subarea Model). Table 2. Population and Employment Forecast Source: MTO Employment Growth 2011-2041 2041 Employment 2031 Employment 2011 Employment Population Growth 2011-2041 2041 Population 2031 Population 2011 Population Zone 8875 5700 6583 7575 1875 2540 2551 2564 24 8877 973 1226 2438 1465 307 340 416 109 8878 999 1127 1299 300 117 142 169 52 8879 1465 2010 2627 1162 332 403 476 144 8881 731 928 2980 2249 79 103 129 50 8882 517 651 787 270 205 209 213 8 8884 1288 1515 1776 488 288 296 304 16 Sub-Total 7947 9289 12641 4694 2941 3005 3075 134 Grand Total 11673 14040 19482 7809 3868 4044 4271 403 Note: highlighted zones represent traffic zones that capture Midhurst development area (immediate analysis area) From the table above, the anticipated growth in population and employment within Midhurst is considered to be moderate based on the subarea model. In general, there is approximately a 59% growth in population (2011 to 2041), and less than 5% in employment for the same period. In comparison, population and employment forecasts from the Midhurst Transportation Master Plan are more pronounced as summarized in Table 3 (broken down by traffic zone and development area).

P a g e 9 Table 3. Population and Employment Forecast Source: Midhurst Transportation Master Plan Phase 1/Full Build Out Mixed Use Employment Land (sq ft GFA) Phase 1/Full Build Out Light Industrial Employment Growth (Basic Jobs) Full Build Out Population Growth (People) Phase I Population Growth (People) Zone 8875 8878 8881 8882 Sum 7677 7677 3130-1140 - 7686 9417 - - 5340-15363 23574 3130 495,000 - - - 495,000 Trip Generation The morning peak hour trip generation data for the subject traffic zones were extracted and reviewed from the subarea model for the years 2011 and 2041. Table 4 provides a summary of trip generation as per the subarea model. Table 4. Trip Generation by Traffic Zone from the Subarea Model Trip Attraction Growth 2011-2041 2041 Trip Attraction 2031 Trip Attraction 2011 Trip Attraction Trip Production Growth 2011-2041 2041 Trip Production 2031 Trip Production 2011 Trip Production Zone 8875 741 765 845 104 581 607 675 94 8878 152 105 122-30 58 31 37-21 8881 112 168 499 387 42 47 140 98 8882 83 48 56-27 60 37 42-18 Sum 1088 1086 1522 434 741 722 894 153 The above table shows that the forecast growth in trip production and trip attraction within the four traffic zones is modest in the subarea model. The number of trips produced by the subject four traffic zones is anticipated to grow by 40 percent, and the number of trips attracted by the zones is anticipated to grow by 21 percent between 2011 and 2041. Trip generation from the TMP was subdivided into the four traffic analysis zones, and is represented in Table 5.

P a g e 10 Table 5. Trip Generation Growth by Traffic Zone from Midhurst Transportation Master Plan Trip Attraction Growth associated with Full Build Out Trip Attraction Growth associated with Phase I Trip Production Growth associated with Full Build Out Trip Production Growth associated with Phase I Zone 8875 1465 1465 1250 1250 8878-205 - 67 8881 1225 1545 385 498 8882-775 - 255 Sum 2690 3990 1635 2070 The Midhurst development is expected to generate 4325 total trips in the 2031 AM peak hour and 6,060 total trips in the 2041 AM peak hour. Table 6 summarizes the additional trips in the Midhurst Transportation Master Plan (TMP) compared to the MTO subarea model. The distribution of these extra trips among pairs of traffic analysis zones are explained in the next section. Table 6. Additional Trips by Traffic Zone in Midhurst TMP Compared to MTO Subarea Model Extra Trips Attracted (Full-Build-Out vs 2041 MTO) Extra Trips Attracted (Phase I vs 2031 MTO) Extra Trips Produced (Full-Build-Out vs 2041 MTO) Extra Trips Produced (Phase I vs 2031 MTO) Zone 8875 1361 1361 1156 1156 8878-235 - 88 8881 838 1158 287 400 8882-802 - 273 Sum 2199 3556 1443 1917 Upon completion of the trip generation comparison between the subarea model and the Midhurst Transportation Master Plan, an additional 3,642 trips in 2031 and 5,473 trips in 2041 need to be assigned to the network in order to match projected population and employment forecast as outlined in the Midhurst TMP. Trip Distribution Trip distribution for the extra trips in the Midhurst TMP was based on the distribution used in the Simcoe subarea model, which in turn was based on the Transportation Tomorrow Survey data. The

P a g e 11 extra trips from/to zones 8878, 8881, and 8882 were distributed according to the distribution of the trips from/to the corresponding zones in the Simcoe subarea model (2031 and 2041 AM peak hour matrices). The distribution of extra trips associated with zone 8875 was assumed to be slightly different. This zone encompasses a large area within the Township of Springwater, however, the proposed developments in zone 8875 are in close proximity to the existing developments in zone 8877. As such, the extra trips produced and attracted by zone 8875 were distributed according to the distribution of the trips from/to zone 8877 in the Simcoe Subarea model. Generally, majority of trips generated in Midhurst are destined to other areas within the Simcoe County, including the City of Barrie (totaling 85%). Approximately 12% are destined to the GTA. The rest are destined to other areas. Approximately 70% of all outbound trips in the AM peak hour are southbound trips (to the south of Midhurst). Once the trip distribution had been established, trip tables were updated accordingly, and additional trips were assigned to the future road network in the Simcoe subarea model. The updated trip tables (2031 and 2041 AM peak hour matrix) were assigned to the road network in Scenarios 2 and 3 (standard traffic assignment in EMME4). The results of these assignments are discussed in the following sections. Alternatives Analysis The following scenarios were assessed using the updated subarea models (future AM Peak Hour): 1&2. 3&4. 5&6. Base case with planned and committed improvements, without the Midhurst development, Scenario 1 for 2031, Scenario 2 for 2041; Planned and committed improvements with the Midhurst development and no interchange at Pooles Road, Scenario 3 for 2031 including Phase 1, Scenario 4 for 2041 including full development; and Partial interchange at Pooles Road in place, planned and committed improvements with Midhurst development, Scenario 5 for 2031 including Phase 1, Scenario 6 for 2041 including full development. Scenarios 1&2 Base Case: No Midhurst Development Scenarios 1 and 2 are the Base Case scenarios without the Midhurst development as outlined in the Midhurst Transportation Master Plan study, but with the anticipated growth in population and employment as suggested by the Simcoe Subarea model. These scenarios do not incorporate road improvements recommended by the TMP; however, incorporate all other planned and committed road improvements discussed earlier in this report. In general, all major north-south roadways north of the Barrie city limits were found to have relatively low volume-to-capacity ratios. Figures 7 and 8 illustrate 2031 and 2041 link volumes, respectively, for the Base Case scenarios. The screenline analysis showed that all screenlines (north-south and east-west) have reserve capacity available (within Midhurst). It should be noted that the same screenlines were used in this analysis as in the model calibration/validation process. Figures 9 and 10 summarize link v/c ratios on all roads within the study area. Table 7 provides a summary of volume-to-capacity ratios in 2031 and 2041 AM peak hours on a screenline basis.

P a g e 12 Figure 7. Scenario 1 - Base Case 2031 AM Peak Hour Volumes (Source: EMME4) Figure 8. Scenario 2 - Base Case 2041 AM Peak Hour Volumes (Source: EMME4)

P a g e 13 Figure 9. Scenario 1 - Base Case 2031 AM Volume-to-Capacity Ratios V/C Ratios - 0.00-0.60-0.61-0.80-0.81-0.97 - >0.97 Figure 10. Scenario 2 - Base Case 2041 AM Volume-to-Capacity Ratios V/C Ratios - 0.00-0.60-0.61-0.80-0.81-0.97 - >0.97

P a g e 14 Table 7. 2031 and 2041 AM Base Case Volume to Capacity Ratios (Screenlines) Screenline 1 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 Base Case 2041 Base Case SB Simcoe Rd 28 N of Barrie N Lmt 0.68 0.80 SB Hwy 400 N of Hwy 11 Split 0.49 0.65 SB Simcoe Rd 93 N of Hwy 11 Split 0.43 0.52 SB Hwy 26 N of Barrie N Lmt 0.58 0.65 SB Simcoe Road 53 N of Barrie N Lmt 0.67 0.73 SB St Vincent Road 0.48 0.77 SB Anne Street 0.59 0.65 Total 0.55 0.67 Screenline 1 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 Base Case 2041 Base Case NB Simcoe Rd 28 N of Barrie N Lmt 0.20 0.28 NB Hwy 400 N of Hwy 11 Split 0.22 0.31 NB Simcoe Rd 93 N of Hwy 11 Split 0.06 0.05 NB Hwy 26 N of Barrie N Lmt 0.17 0.21 NB Simcoe Road 53 N of Barrie N Lmt 0.39 0.41 SB St Vincent Road 0.12 0.18 SB Anne Street 0.17 0.29 Total 0.24 0.32 Screenline 2 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 Base Case 2041 Base Case SB Hwy 26 N of Rd 28 0.91 0.95 SB Simcoe Rd 27 N of Forbes 0.39 0.47 SB Hwy 400 N of Forbes 0.39 0.50 SB Simcoe Rd 93 N of Forbes 0.26 0.25 Total 0.44 0.52 Screenline 2 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 Base Case 2041 Base Case NB Hwy 26 N of Rd 28 0.42 0.53 NB Simcoe Rd 27 N of Forbes 0.05 0.09 NB Hwy 400 N of Forbes 0.20 0.28 NB Simcoe Rd 93 N of Forbes 0.02 0.02 Total 0.16 0.23 Screenline 3 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 Base Case 2041 Base Case EB Simcoe Rd 22 E of Simcoe Rd 29 0.65 0.72 EB Simcoe Rd 43 E of Simcoe Rd 28 0.35 0.41 EB Simcoe Rd 40 E of Simcoe Rd 28 0.37 0.43 EB Simcoe Rd 90 E of Simcoe Rd 27 0.62 0.61 Total 0.53 0.56 Screenline 3 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 Base Case 2041 Base Case WB Simcoe Rd 22 E of Simcoe Rd 29 0.47 0.54 WB Simcoe Rd 43 E of Simcoe Rd 28 0.26 0.20 WB Simcoe Rd 40 E of Simcoe Rd 28 0.37 0.54 WB Simcoe Rd 90 E of Simcoe Rd 27 0.43 0.47 Total 0.40 0.45 Screenline 4 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 Base Case 2041 Base Case EB Simcoe Rd 22 E of Hwy 400 0.27 0.24 EB Simcoe Rd 11 E of Hwy 400 0.17 0.19 EB Highway 11 E of Highway 400 split 0.60 0.66 EB Pooles Rd of Highway 400 split 0.00 0.00 EB Partridge Rd of Highway 400 split 0.10 0.24 Total 0.48 0.54 Screenline 4 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 Base Case 2041 Base Case WB Simcoe Rd 22 E of Hwy 400 0.28 0.36 WB Simcoe Rd 11 E of Hwy 400 0.40 0.47 WB Highway 11 E of Highway 400 split 0.76 0.86 WB Pooles Rd of Highway 400 split 0.00 0.00 WB Partridge Rd of Highway 400 split 0.02 0.02 Total 0.61 0.71 Scenarios 2&4 Midhurst Development without Pooles Road Interchange These scenarios incorporate all improvements as per the Midhurst Transportation Master Plan recommendations; however, exclude the partial interchange at Pooles Road. The main access to the freeway in the immediate area is provided via the full interchange at Forbes Road. Figure 11 summarizes road improvements within Midhurst and surrounding areas as per the TMP. Figures 12 and 13 illustrate AM peak hour volumes with Midhurst Phase I development in 2031 and full development in 2041 respectively. Figures 14 and 15 illustrate link v/c ratios in 2031 and 2041, respectively. Table 8 summarizes v/c ratios on the screenline basis in 2031 and 2041 AM peak hours. In these scenarios, additional traffic associated with the future development results in higher volumeto-capacity ratios on certain links. The southbound on-ramp at the Forbes Road interchange was found to carry approximately 700/1100 vehicles per hour in the AM peak hour by 2031/2041, compared to approximately 450/600 vehicles in the base case scenario. Forbes Road is expected to operate with high v/c ratios in the eastbound direction in the AM peak hour. Although the PM peak hour analysis was not part of this assessment, given that PM peak hour volumes are in general 4% higher than AM peak hour volumes (from a comparison of existing AM and PM peak hour traffic flows) congestion on Forbes Road in the westbound direction (return movement) can also be anticipated with potential impacts on traffic operations at the east ramp terminal intersection. Highway 26 (Bayfield Street) in the southbound direction was also found to operate at capacity approaching the northern limits of Barrie (toward the Highway 400 interchange). As previously noted, the future development is generally located south-west of the Highway 400/Forbes Road interchange, which would require commuters destined to the south (approximately 70% of all outbound trips) to

P a g e 15 either traverse in the southbound direction toward Highway 400 interchanges in Barrie or back track to the interchange at Forbes Road. There is a significant reliance on the Highway 400 corridor not only for the Midhurst traffic but also traffic from the City of Barrie and surrounding areas. Screenline 1 (southbound) is the most critical of the four, with certain roadways operating at or approaching capacity. In particular, St Vincent Road was found to operate over capacity north of Barrie (southbound in the AM peak hour) by 2041. It should be noted that St Vincent Street has a fourlane cross-section between Livingstone Street and just north of Highway 400 (immediately to the south from the screenline station). However, lane (capacity) reductions to the north and over Highway 400 make this corridor less attractive to commuters. Anne Street was found to operate with the v/c ratio of 0.89 in 2041.The V/C ratio for Screenline 1 (AM peak hour in the southbound direction) is 0.67/0.88 in 2031/2041. It should be noted that even though the PM forecast was not part of this assessment, as previously stated, a review of existing traffic volumes on Highway 400 within the study area revealed that traffic volumes in the PM peak hour/direction are at least 4% higher than the AM peak hour volumes in the southbound direction, which would make return volumes in the PM peak period further impact crossing roads and the off-ramps, potentially triggering additional improvements as a result. In addition, the TMP anticipates a significant share of retail uses in their employment forecast, traffic for which typically peaks in the PM peak period and on weekends. With this in mind, individual link and screenline v/c ratios could be higher in the PM peak hour, resulting in further deteriorated operations at locations with already high v/c ratios in the AM peak hour. Figure 11. Proposed Transportation Improvements in Midhurst (Source: Midhurst TMP)

P a g e 16 Figure 12. Scenario 3-2031 AM Midhurst Development Without Interchange Figure 13. Scenario 4-2041 AM Midhurst Development Without Interchange

P a g e 17 Figure 14. Scenario 3 Midhurst Without Pooles Road I/C 2031 AM Volume-to-Capacity Ratios V/C Ratios - 0.00-0.60-0.61-0.80-0.81-0.97 - >0.97 Figure 15. Scenario 4 - Midhurst Without Pooles Road I/C 2041 AM Volume-to-Capacity Ratios V/C Ratios - 0.00-0.60-0.61-0.80-0.81-0.97 - >0.97

P a g e 18 Table 8. Midhurst Development Without Pooles Rd Interchange 2031 and 2041 V/C Ratios (Screenlines) Screenline 1 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 no IC 2041 no IC SB Simcoe Rd 28 N of Barrie N Lmt 0.70 0.87 SB Hwy 400 N of Hwy 11 Split 0.62 0.85 SB Simcoe Rd 93 N of Hwy 11 Split 0.57 0.88 SB Hwy 26 N of Barrie N Lmt 0.72 0.89 SB Simcoe Road 53 N of Barrie N Lmt 0.65 0.85 SB St Vincent Road 0.80 1.04 SB Anne Street 0.79 0.95 Total 0.67 0.88 Screenline 1 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 no IC 2041 no IC NB Simcoe Rd 28 N of Barrie N Lmt 0.21 0.28 NB Hwy 400 N of Hwy 11 Split 0.22 0.35 NB Simcoe Rd 93 N of Hwy 11 Split 0.06 0.06 NB Hwy 26 N of Barrie N Lmt 0.31 0.35 NB Simcoe Road 53 N of Barrie N Lmt 0.32 0.37 SB St Vincent Road 0.20 0.44 SB Anne Street 0.47 0.52 Total 0.30 0.41 Screenline 2 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 no IC 2041 no IC SB Hwy 26 N of Rd 28 0.93 0.97 SB Simcoe Rd 27 N of Forbes 0.42 0.51 SB Hwy 400 N of Forbes 0.45 0.53 SB Simcoe Rd 93 N of Forbes 0.26 0.27 Total 0.48 0.55 Screenline 2 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 no IC 2041 no IC NB Hwy 26 N of Rd 28 0.44 0.56 NB Simcoe Rd 27 N of Forbes 0.05 0.09 NB Hwy 400 N of Forbes 0.21 0.29 NB Simcoe Rd 93 N of Forbes 0.02 0.02 Total 0.17 0.24 Screenline 3 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 no IC 2041 no IC EB Simcoe Rd 22 E of Simcoe Rd 29 0.66 0.75 EB Simcoe Rd 43 E of Simcoe Rd 28 0.54 0.56 EB Simcoe Rd 40 E of Simcoe Rd 28 0.41 0.47 EB Simcoe Rd 90 E of Simcoe Rd 27 0.64 0.65 Total 0.58 0.62 Screenline 3 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 no IC 2041 no IC WB Simcoe Rd 22 E of Simcoe Rd 29 0.47 0.54 WB Simcoe Rd 43 E of Simcoe Rd 28 0.33 0.33 WB Simcoe Rd 40 E of Simcoe Rd 28 0.45 0.65 WB Simcoe Rd 90 E of Simcoe Rd 27 0.44 0.51 Total 0.43 0.51 Screenline 4 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 no IC 2041 no IC EB Simcoe Rd 22 E of Hwy 400 0.19 0.21 EB Simcoe Rd 11 E of Hwy 400 0.18 0.20 EB Highway 11 E of Highway 400 split 0.59 0.66 EB Pooles Rd of Highway 400 split 0.00 0.00 EB Partridge Rd of Highway 400 split 0.31 0.75 Total 0.50 0.63 Screenline 4 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 no IC 2041 no IC WB Simcoe Rd 22 E of Hwy 400 0.27 0.31 WB Simcoe Rd 11 E of Hwy 400 0.49 0.63 WB Highway 11 E of Highway 400 split 0.77 0.92 WB Pooles Rd of Highway 400 split 0.00 0.00 WB Partridge Rd of Highway 400 split 0.05 0.05 Total 0.64 0.77 Scenarios 5&6 Midhurst Development with Pooles Road Interchange These scenarios assume a partial interchange (from/to the south) with Highway 400 at Pooles Road. The analysis shows that the new interchange would attract over 400/800 trips from the west in 2031/2041 AM peak hour that are destined to Highway 400 south. This translates to the fact that Pooles Road is expected to be fully utilized by 2041 should the partial interchange at Highway 400 be constructed. It should be noted that the Midhurst Transportation Master Plan study estimated approximately 510 vehicles using the W-S ramp at this location in the AM peak hour. The TMP also estimated 590 vehicles in the AM peak hour using the W/E-S ramp at Forbes Road in 2041, while the updated subarea model shows 450 vehicles using the W/E-S ramp once the Pooles Road interchange becomes available. The totals in traffic volumes for the on-ramps between the two interchanges; however, are quite comparable, adding to 1,250 vehicles per hour in the updated subarea model versus 1,100 vehicles in the AM peak hour in the TMP. The model, however, predicts heavier utilization of the south interchange should it be constructed. This is somewhat expected given that the majority of the development will occur to the south of Forbes Road, while trip distribution is such that most of the outbound trips are south-oriented, which makes the partial interchange at Pooles Road more attractive. Figures 16 and 17 summarize link volumes for these two scenarios and Figures 18 and 19 illustrate volume-to-capacity ratios for these scenarios. Table 9 illustrates 2041 v/c ratios on the screenline basis, while Figures 20 and 21 show a comparison between the scenarios with and without the interchange at Pooles Road.

P a g e 19 Figure 16. Scenario 5 Midhurst Phase I With Pooles Road Interchange in 2031 AM Figure 17. Scenario 6 Midhurst Development With Pooles Road Interchange in 2041 AM

P a g e 20 The partial interchange at Pooles Road will attract traffic from Forbes Road that is destined to Highway 400 south. The v/c ratio on Forbes Road is expected to decrease once the interchange at Pooles Road is constructed from 1.06 to 0.67 (2041). This is a significant improvement from the no interchange at Pooles Road scenario. Volume to capacity ratios on St. Vincent Road and Highway 26 are also expected to improve as a result as a portion of traffic from those roads is expected to divert to the new interchange at Pooles Road. Slight reductions in traffic volumes are expected at the Duckworth, Bayfield and Dunlop interchanges. The v/c ratio on Highway 400 in the southbound direction south of Pooles Road would increase from 0.85 to 0.91 in 2041 with additional traffic volumes entering the freeway north of Barrie at the new interchange rather than traversing in the southbound direction toward the interchanges in Barrie. A more pronounced difference in traffic volumes was found to be in the off-peak direction, where approximately 150 vehicles were found to continue on Highway 400 northbound rather than exiting earlier and taking north-south arterial and collector roads to Midhurst. The most notable difference was found on Highway 26 where approximately 150 vehicles in the AM peak hour (southbound) were found to divert from it should the new interchange at Pooles Road be provided. Highway 26 is one of the most heavily utilized roads in the vicinity of the Highway 400 interchange.

P a g e 21 Figure 18. Scenario 5 - Midhurst with Pooles Road I/C 2031 AM Volume-to-Capacity Ratios V/C Ratios - 0.00-0.60-0.61-0.80-0.81-0.97 - >0.97 Figure 19. Scenario 6 - Midhurst with Pooles Road I/C 2041 AM Volume-to-Capacity Ratios V/C Ratios - 0.00-0.60-0.61-0.80-0.81-0.97 - >0.97

P a g e 22 Table 9. Midhurst Development With Pooles Rd Interchange 2031 and 2041 V/C Ratios (Screenlines) Screenline 1 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 with IC 2041 with IC SB Simcoe Rd 28 N of Barrie N Lmt 0.70 0.86 SB Hwy 400 N of Hwy 11 Split 0.64 0.91 SB Simcoe Rd 93 N of Hwy 11 Split 0.55 0.74 SB Hwy 26 N of Barrie N Lmt 0.71 0.88 SB Simcoe Road 53 N of Barrie N Lmt 0.64 0.83 SB St Vincent Road 0.76 0.99 SB Anne Street 0.79 0.93 Total 0.67 0.88 Screenline 1 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 with IC 2041 with IC NB Simcoe Rd 28 N of Barrie N Lmt 0.20 0.28 NB Hwy 400 N of Hwy 11 Split 0.26 0.40 NB Simcoe Rd 93 N of Hwy 11 Split 0.06 0.06 NB Hwy 26 N of Barrie N Lmt 0.24 0.27 NB Simcoe Road 53 N of Barrie N Lmt 0.32 0.36 SB St Vincent Road 0.20 0.44 SB Anne Street 0.47 0.52 Total 0.30 0.41 Screenline 2 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 with IC 2041 with IC SB Hwy 26 N of Rd 28 0.93 0.98 SB Simcoe Rd 27 N of Forbes 0.44 0.57 SB Hwy 400 N of Forbes 0.44 0.49 SB Simcoe Rd 93 N of Forbes 0.25 0.30 Total 0.48 0.55 Screenline 2 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 with IC 2041 with IC NB Hwy 26 N of Rd 28 0.43 0.55 NB Simcoe Rd 27 N of Forbes 0.05 0.10 NB Hwy 400 N of Forbes 0.21 0.29 NB Simcoe Rd 93 N of Forbes 0.02 0.02 Total 0.17 0.24 Screenline 3 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 with IC 2041 with IC EB Simcoe Rd 22 E of Simcoe Rd 29 0.66 0.75 EB Simcoe Rd 43 E of Simcoe Rd 28 0.54 0.56 EB Simcoe Rd 40 E of Simcoe Rd 28 0.42 0.49 EB Simcoe Rd 90 E of Simcoe Rd 27 0.64 0.64 Total 0.58 0.62 Screenline 3 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 with IC 2041 with IC WB Simcoe Rd 22 E of Simcoe Rd 29 0.47 0.54 WB Simcoe Rd 43 E of Simcoe Rd 28 0.32 0.30 WB Simcoe Rd 40 E of Simcoe Rd 28 0.45 0.64 WB Simcoe Rd 90 E of Simcoe Rd 27 0.44 0.50 Total 0.43 0.51 Screenline 4 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 with IC 2041 with IC EB Simcoe Rd 22 E of Hwy 400 0.20 0.23 EB Simcoe Rd 11 E of Hwy 400 0.19 0.23 EB Highway 11 E of Highway 400 split 0.59 0.66 EB Pooles Rd of Highway 400 split 0.01 0.00 EB Partridge Rd of Highway 400 split 0.28 0.56 Total 0.50 0.60 Screenline 4 ScreenLine - Station Description 2031 with IC 2041 with IC WB Simcoe Rd 22 E of Hwy 400 0.27 0.30 WB Simcoe Rd 11 E of Hwy 400 0.19 0.31 WB Highway 11 E of Highway 400 split 0.77 0.87 WB Pooles Rd of Highway 400 split 0.45 0.42 WB Partridge Rd of Highway 400 split 0.00 0.05 Total 0.64 0.74 Screenline 1 analysis illustrates close to capacity conditions, however, v/c ratios on critical links/sections have reduced due to more balanced distribution of traffic across the screenline. In fact, v/c ratio on Simcoe Road 93 has decreased from 0.88 to 0.74 in 2041. Other critical locations also see a reduction in the v/c ratio, including St Vincent Road, where v/c ratio has reduced from 1.04 to 0.99 in 2041.

P a g e 23 Figure 20. Scenario Comparison in 2031: With Interchange vs. Without Interchange Figure 21. Scenario Comparison in 2041: With Interchange vs. Without Interchange

P a g e 24 Conclusions Phase 1 Completion in 2031 By 2031, Midhurst Phase 1 is in place. The development associated with this phase is expected to generate more than 4300 trips during the AM peak hour. The majority of those trips are southbound trips, mostly destined the City of Barrie, the rest of Simcoe County and GTA. High percentage of such trips is via Highway 400. The subarea model forecast results indicate the southbound on-ramp at Forbes Road Interchange will carry about 700 vehicles per hour while the level of service on northsouth roadways worsen. In fact, the 2031 AM peak v/c ratios for southbound directions of Highway 26, St Vincent Road, and Anne Street were found to increase from 0.58, 0.48, 0.59 to 0.72, 0.80, 0.79, respectively. With the Pooles Road Interchange, the new southbound on-ramp is expected to attract approximately 750 vehicles per hour. The majority of those trips are attracted from Forbes Road Interchange as they found it more convenient to use Pooles Road in order to access the highway. With the new interchange, Pooles Road is expected to carry over 600 vehicles per hour in both directions west of Highway 400. The v/c ratio for the eastbound direction was found to be over 0.5. Full Development in 2041 Based on the Midhurst Transportation Master Plan, new developments within the Midhurst community are expected to generate 6,060 trips during the AM peak hour in 2041. Trips associated with the new development that are destined to the south are distributed between the interchange at Forbes Road and other interchanges in the City of Barrie mostly via Highway 26, County Road 28, St. Vincent Road, and County Road 53. The subarea model suggests that with the new development in place, traffic volumes on Forbes Road are expected to increase to approximately 1,300 vehicles in both directions (2041 AM peak hour). The eastbound link on Forbes Road approaching the interchange was found to be oversaturated with the v/c ratio of 1.06. The W/E-S ramp volume was also found to increase to about 1,100 vehicles per hour. Similarly, southbound traffic volumes on CR 28, Highway 26, St Vincent Road, Anne Street, and CR 53 were also found to increase significantly with v/c ratios increasing to 0.85-1.04 on certain sections just north of the City of Barrie limits. Traffic diversion in the northbound direction (off-peak direction) was found to be in the 150 vehicles/hr range, where traffic chooses to stay on Highway 400 (to Pooles Road) rather than exiting earlier and taking arterial roads to Midhurst. Traffic volumes in the PM peak hour in the northbound direction are expected to be at least 4% higher than southbound AM peak hour volumes, potentially impacting the already congested arterial roads even further. The screenline analysis showed that close to capacity conditions are anticipated on north-south roadways just north of the City of Barrie limits. In addition, traffic is found to concentrate around roadways that provide access to Highway 400. With the Pooles Road interchange in place, a shift in travel patterns is noted with significant volumes traversing toward the interchange along Pooles Road. As a result, traffic volumes on Forbes Road were found to decrease significantly (with v/c ratios decreasing from 1.06 to 0.67) as the Pooles Road interchange provides a more direct access to and from Highway 400 for Midhurst traffic. The W/E-S on-ramp at Pooles Road is anticipated to carry over 1,100 vehicles in 2041 AM peak hour. With the new interchange in place, traffic volumes on north-south arterial roads were also found to decrease as a result, which translates to fewer vehicles using busy interchanges in the City of Barrie at Dunlop, Bayfield and Essa. Volume-to-capacity ratios especially on Highway 26, CR 93 and St. Vincent Road were found to improve. Although the V/C improvements at certain locations are relatively minor, they may still have some positive effects on ramp terminal operations at Bayfield,

P a g e 25 Dunlop and Duckworth interchanges (analyses of these interchanges are outside of the study scope). It should also be noted that latent demand usually exists on links where volumes approach capacity. As capacity constraints result in traffic diverting to other routes, once reserve capacity becomes available (i.e. St Vincent Road, Anne Street, etc.) it is likely to be used up by the latent demand. The analysis results show a notable demand for the new partial interchange at Pooles Road that would see a change in travel pattern with fewer vehicles utilizing busy interchanges in Barrie opting to travel eastward to the new interchange instead. With the addition of 6,060 new two-way trips to and from the Midhurst community (once fully built out), the new partial interchange would provide improved flexibility and capacity in the overall road network with long trip commuters having to travel shorter distances on municipal roads to access the freeway (quicker access). Improvements to v/c ratios on north-south arterial roads were also noted as a result of the new interchange. Given that the proposal is for a partial interchange, and considering current interchange spacing, the new interchange is not expected to have adverse traffic impacts on Highway 400 operations (subject to further analysis using microsimulation tools). Based on all of the above, a partial interchange at Pooles Road is justified.