Cleaning Up the Global On- Road Diesel Fleet A Global Strategy to Introduce Low-Sulfur Fuels and Cleaner Diesel Vehicles
The Global Strategy and HDDI MTP Slide 2 The Initiative s objective is to virtually eliminate fine particle and black carbon emissions from new and existing heavy-duty diesel vehicles and engines through the introduction of low sulfur fuels, and vehicle emission standards, and measures which address existing vehicles such as green freight programs. Our target is to reach 50 ppm sulfur in fuels for on-road fuels by 2025 globally; Identify and support actions by government, the private sector and financial institutions that are needed to reach our global goal in the next 5-10 years.
Outline Slide 3 Why focus on diesels? Why do we need low sulfur fuels? What is the global strategy? What needs to be done Where By when
Focus on Diesel Engines Slide 4
2.9 Million Deaths from Outdoor Air Pollution in 2013 Slide 5 Diesel Engines are a Key Source of Fine Particles The scientific evidence was compelling and the Working Group s conclusion was unanimous: diesel engine exhaust causes lung cancer in humans. -Dr. Christopher Portier, IARC 2012 removing particulates with a modern diesel particle trap resulted in a complete absence of cardiovascular effects. Janssen, N. A. H., Gerlofs-Nijland, M. E., Lanki, T., Salonen, R. O., Cassee, F., Hoek, G., et al. (2012). Health Effects of Black Carbon (pp. 1 96). Copenhagen: World Health Organization.
Diesel Sources Among the Most Attractive Targets to Address Near-Term Climate Impacts We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m 2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere Diesel sources of BC appear to offer the most promising mitigation opportunities in terms of near-term forcing and maturity of technology and delivery programs. 6 Bond, T. C., Doherty, S. J., Fahey, D. W., Forster, P. M., Berntsen, T. K., DeAngelo, B. J., et al. (2013). Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50171
Diesel BC measures among 16 win-win strategies to address SLCPs Diesel BC measures among 16 total measures to reduce radiative forcing from short-lived substances 1. Diesel particulate filters as part of a Euro 6/VI package for road and offroad diesel vehicles 2. Elimination of highemitting vehicles in on-road and off-road transport Shindell, D., Ramanathan, V., Raes, F., Cifuentes, L., & Kim Oanh, N. T. (2011). Integrated assessment of black carbon and tropospheric ozone (pp. 1 285). Nairobi: UNEP and WMO. Retrieved from http://www.unep.org/dewa/assessments/ecosystems/climatechange/tabid/7002/default.aspx 7
The Need for Cleaner Fuels and Engines Slide 8
Why do we need low-sulfur fuels? Slide 9 Low-Sulfur Fuels Enable Soot-Free Emission Controls
The Evolution of the Soot-Free Diesel Engine Effect of US Emission Standards on Diesel Soot 10
Deployment of Low Sulfur Fuels Needs to be Accelerated Slide 11
The Global Strategy for Cleaner Fuels and Diesel Engines Slide 12
Fuel flows + refineries: a global perspective Slide 13 A Global Strategy based on analysis of oil and fuel flows worldwide, a refinery study, and health modeling 158 countries 246 refineries
4 Categories of Strategic Action in Countries Slide 14 1. Importers buy fuels on the open market and have not switched to buying low-sulfur fuels 2. Refiners produce high sulfur fuel and must make new investments to produce low sulfur fuels 3. Vehicle Standards are countries that already consume low sulfur fuels but do not require cleaner vehicles to lower emissions 4. City First consume low sulfur fuels in urban areas but do not require cleaner vehicles to lower emissions
How to Transition the World to Low Sulfur Fuels Slide 15 Targeted diesel fuel sulfur content globally ~$70 billion investment would deliver a global shift to 50 ppm fuel standards in refining countries. Net present value of the health gains to 2050 is $18 trillion. Total costs of desulfurization and emission controls are estimated at around $1.1 trillion over the same period; estimated benefits to 2050 outweigh costs by a factor of around 16.
500,000 early deaths avoided in 2050 Slide 16
Diesel engines, black carbon and climate change Slide 17 More stringent standards for diesel fuel and vehicles would reduce cumulative emissions of diesel BC by an estimated 7.1 million metric tons through the year 2050, or by over 85% throughout developing regions by 2050. Annual (and cumulative) reductions in black carbon emissions (millions of metric tons) and net climate benefit (millions of metric tons CO 2 -equivalent, based on GWP-100) through low sulfur diesel and emission standards
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Summary Slide 19 Global progress on diesel fuel desulfurization needs to be accelerated and more widespread Globally, 158 countries/4.6 billion people/twothirds of the global population are still using high sulfur diesel. Road map to reduce small particulate and black carbon emissions from the global diesel fleet by 90% or more Switch to 50 ppm in all countries by 2025; 10 ppm by 2030 possible Health, climate benefits significant