Transitioning to low carbon / low fossil fuels and energy sources for road transport FUELSEUROPE / BULGARIAN PETROLEUM AND GAS ASSOCIATION (BPGA) CONFERENCE SOFIA, 18 APRIL 2018 Dr Paul Greening Director, Emissions & Fuels Monday, 23 April 2018
ACEA MEMBERS
Major Challenge: Car CO2 3
5 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS 4
1. FOCUS ON 2030 TARGET ACEA welcomes the fact that the date for the new long-term CO2 target has been set for 2030. Additional target in 2025 does not leave enough time: o Given long development and production cycles, no time to make necessary technical and design changes especially for vans. 5
2. SET 20% TARGET FOR CARS European car & LCV manufacturers will continue to invest in further reducing CO2 emissions from their vehicles: o Already spending a large part of the sector s 50.1 billion annual R&D investment on decarbonisation. 30% reduction proposed by the Commission seems to be too ambitious, especially in light of: o Limited room for further improvement to the combustion engine. o Lack of recharging and refuelling infrastructure for alternative powertrains. o Low market uptake of alternatively-powered vehicles. o On-going decline of diesel s market share. In the end, it is the consumer who decides which technology to buy. 6
CONSUMER CHOICE JRC STUDY Purchase price continues to represent the major hurdle to widespread adoption of [electric] powertrains. Other reasons for not buying electric cars: lack of recharging infrastructure and short range. Attitudes towards electric cars in Europe have remained relatively stable in the last five years Source: JRC report Quantifying the factors influencing people s car type choices in Europe, December 2017 10
2. SET 20% TARGET FOR CARS These market trends are posing a real threat to future CO2 reductions, even affecting the existing 2021 target: o Moreover, new WLTP test has made 2021 CO2 target >5% more stringent! 30% also goes beyond the Climate and Energy Framework: o CO2 targets can indeed provide an impetus for innovation, but the current proposal is very aggressive. o Putting the global competitiveness of the EU auto industry at risk. 20% reduction by 2030 achievable at a high, but acceptable, cost: o In line with what is expected of other industry sectors. 11
3. INCLUDE CONDITIONALITY Auto industry is ready to go beyond the 20% target. However, problem is that the Commission s proposal does not link the proposed CO2 targets to the: 1. Availability of recharging and refuelling infrastructure for alternatively-powered vehicles. 2. Market uptake of these vehicles. Forces car makers to invest in specific technologies without: o Providing clarity on the enabling framework. o Addressing the uncertainty surrounding consumer acceptance. 12
SUMMARY Focus on an ambitious, but realistic, 2030 target Set a 2030 ambition level of 20% for cars Include a conditionality mechanism Revise the low-emission vehicle benchmark system Address the specific situation of vans 14
Strong future for the combustion engine & diesel engines? 15
YES 16
RDE-COMPLIANT EURO 6 CARS Auto manufacturers have made major investments to deliver significant improvements to NOx emissions of Euro 6 vehicles. Latest generation of diesel and petrol cars emits very low pollutant emissions on the road, under new RDE test. Introduction of these cleaner vehicles, supported by fleet renewal, will play a strong role in helping cities move towards compliance with EU air quality (NO2 concentration) targets. 17
Alternative powertrains to 2030 18
FUTURE POWERTRAIN VISION TO 2030 Powertrains will increasingly turn to low/zero emissions. Diversification of powertrain portfolio significant GHG reductions. Advanced ICE (gasoline, diesel, NG, all with very low emissions), HEV, PHEV and BEV. Over time, will be complemented by FCEV. Customer decisions will be more based on vehicle need and general use patterns. Smart technology for HEV, PHEV cars to run in battery mode in urban areas. Infrastructure must grow easily accessible public fast-charging. Requires updates to low voltage grid connections to facilitate public charging points. Primarily, liquid fuels remain very relevant for transport 2030. But will become more sustainable and greener. Use of renewable electricity for charging but also for energy conversion H2 or H2 + waste CO2 e-fuels. 19
LIQUID FUELS STILL NEEDED THROUGH 2030 Vision 2050 great! But for auto our focus is from now to 2030. NEED: o Technology neutral and stable regulatory framework. o Lay out the EUs carbon reduction pathway in the framework of 2030 and beyond, that will give investors the confidence to make the substantial investments needed. o Fuel options for future technology but fuel options to reduce C- footprint of existing fleet. We do not envisage the demise of liquid / gas fuels needed for current & advanced ICE. ICE has a clean green future fuels also have a green future. 20
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