The melt up continues and without a >10p pullback it is hard to determine what wave currently is underway. So, we ll stick to what we have so far until proven otherwise. Price has now reached the next target zone of SPX2539-2551 but can still extend further to SPX2564-2571. Hard to foretell with such extreme extensions. The hourly RSI5 is now extremely overbought, and going back to the SPX1810 low from February 2016, from such levels often >10p corrections have occurred (either with or without negative divergence), and in all occasions higher highs were made after, which fit with the preferred wave count. Hence, micro-3 is still underway until we get an >12p pullback. Figure 1. Price is impulsing higher in now non-overlapping waves. Still no >10p pullback. 1 P a g e
On the S&P daily chart the current setup of the technical indicators (TIs) resembles those of the February rally the most. Hence, one could say you are here ; see Figure-2. Back then the RSI5, A.I. and MACD were at similar levels. There was a 1-day pullback, followed by 8 more days of rallying. If this analogy holds, then we should see a market top around October 18/19. This fits with my next two turn dates of October 18/19. Figure 2. S&P daily TI chart: TIs are at maximum readings. Often a small pullback is then in the cards 2 P a g e
The NDX finally also made a new ATHs, but continues to lag all other indices. Big tech finally started to participate in the rally. So far the EDT remains in place. An overthrow and the relapse is rather common. A break higher and away from the upper blue trendline will have me change the count to a minor-3 underway. Figure 3. NDX still counts best as and ending diagonal triangle. Wave-e underway? 3 P a g e
The RUT remains also on track, and possible negative divergence is now forming on the daily RSI5. Price made a marginal higher high (0.17p higher) compared to yesterday, indicating that the index is indeed (as mentioned yesterday) wrapping up its final 4 th and 5 th waves of intermediate-iii. I expect a few more (2), but it s not necessary. Intermediate-iv will the likely retrace back to the black up trend line. Figure 4. RUT daily chart: Intermediate-iii ideally still underway. Next target: 200% extension at ~$1520 4 P a g e
The S&P500 s McClellan Oscillator (MO) ended today at +53 today. Up 9p over yesterday and thus confirming the new price high, telling is to expect higher prices. The SPX-SI (Summation Index of the MO) is therefore still on a buy/long, but it is reaching extremely overbought conditions (>90). However, history tells us higher readings (90-95) are not uncommon (n=10 over the past 11 years); though each such high (>90) RSI14 reading has marked a tradeable market top sooner than later. Given current breadth readings I fully expect the RSI14 to reach well >90 (possible 95) to signal minute-iii is about complete. Figure 5. SPXSI and all other indices SIs remains on a buy. In conclusion: Price has now reached the SPX2544-2551 target zone for micro-3 as nano-v continues to extend to extremes, which can t be forecasted beforehand. And yet, it can still extend further to SPX2564-2571 though given the current set up of the technical indicators on the daily, I expect that to be as far as micro-3 will go. An >10p pullback is now looming, which will be bought. A >12p pullback will signal micro-3 has topped and micro-4 (20-30p pullback) is underway. Support is at SPX2530 +/- 5p, which is where I expect micro-4 to bottom from current levels in that case. ALOHA Soul, Ph.D. 2017, Intelligent Investing, LLC. This copyrighted daily periodical is published on most stock market trading days by Intelligent Investing, LLC, and is intended solely for use by designated recipients. No reproduction, retransmission, or other use of the information or images is authorized. Legitimate news media may quote representative passages, in context and with full attribution, for the purpose of reporting on our opinions. Analysis is derived from data believed to be accurate, but such accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. It should not be assumed that such analysis, past or future, will be profitable or will equal past performance or guarantee future performance or trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader. Inclusion of our information for trading and investing are the sole responsibility of the reader and cannot be construed as any type of recommendation, nor solicitation. 5 P a g e