Impact of Sustainability and Environmental Factors on Technology Obsolescence Jeffery C. Bricker Senior Director of Research - Honeywell UOP
Outline of the talk Introduction Technology Obsolescence Non -Technical Factors Examples & Experience Anticipating Technology Obsolescence Conclusions
Non-Technical Factors in Technology Obsolescence Sustainability Regional Shifts in Resources: Feedstocks, Skilled Labor Legislative /Political/ Legal Planned Obsolescence Examples and Learnings 3
Sustainability Rhine River 1958 4
Sustainability: History of Detergent Industry Branched Detergent Alkylate 1955-60, Due to poor biodegradation, pollution of lake and river waters from washing effluent raised serious concern The Branched structure of the paraffinic chain was identified as the primary cause of poor biodegradation Challenge was to make linear olefins in C 12 carbon range to replace propylene tetramer as alkylation feed
Alkyl Benzene Sulfonates Classifies into Groups Branched and linear chain SO 3 H SO 3 H CH 3 (CH 2 ) 6 LAS: Linear Alkyl Benzene Sulfonate (Alkyl Chain: C 10 C 13 ) Ionic surfactants: Alkyl Benzene sulphonates SO 3- Na + Opportunity Emerged for LAB Technology
Wt-% Produced from Feedstock BPSD, millions Shale Gas Liquids Support Petrochemical Growth 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 Pentanes+ Butane Propane Ethane 0.50 100% 90% Lower Cost Ethane Prompts Shift in Feedstock Usage 0.00 120,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 Propylene Supply/Demand Propylene Gap 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% kmta 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 Conventional Sources Demand 10% 20,000 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Ethane Propane Butane Naphtha Gas Oil January 2011 Source: CMAI 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Olefin Technologies Feedstocks Processes Products Propane PDH Propane Dehydro Propylene Methane or Coal SynGas / Methanol Reformer / Converter MTO Methanol to Olefins Ethylene Propylene Ethane Naphtha Gas Oil Steam Cracking Thermal Steam Cracking Thermal Ethylene Ethylene Propylene C 4 Olefins,C 4 == PyGas Propane Dehydrogenation and MTO have Taken- Off
Legislative / Legal / Sustainability Example MARPOL Sulfur Regulations set at 2020 (World Wide) + IMO requires Bunker at 0.5 % S (from 3.5% ) + Fuel Oil is devalued Big Impact on Refiners Worldwide + Hydrocracking Conversion Refineries Poised + Exhaust Gas Scrubbers on Ships + Alternate Fuels
Strategies to Capitalize on Obsolescence Understand Derivative Impact of World Wide Mega Trends; e.g. connected devices Energy Macro Market Analysis (worldwide) Organizational Core Strengths Cutting Edge Science that can be Employed across Technologies Future Scenario Analysis assuming more disruption than the base case Conduct Proof of Principle Idea Evaluation of your Big Ideas
What Disrupters Should We Anticipate Electric Car (e.g. Tesla) Usage Accelerates Potential New Combustion Engine Design Direct Natural Gas Conversion to Chemicals 50 Billion Devices will be connected by 2020 Impactful Sustainability and CO 2 minimization Green Chemicals Renewable Energy & Fuels CO 2 Capture & Re-use
g CO 2 eq./mj Renewable Gasoline GHG Emissions Preliminary Model Results (Woody Feedstock) 100 90 80 70 60 50 Fuel Combustion Fuel Transportation Fuel Production Transportation of Feedstocks Feedstock Production, RMA Feedstock Chemicals Lifecycle GHG Thresholds in EISA (% reduction from 2005 baseline) 40 30 20 Renewable fuel a 20% Advanced biofuel 50% Biomass-based diesel 50% Cellulosic biofuel 60% 10 0 Petroleum Diesel PyGasoline: Logging Residue PyGasoline: Poplar PyGasoline: Willow Petroleum Gasoline Renewables Sources have a Significant Lower CO 2 Footprint
Billions of Ethanol Equiv. GPY US Renewable Transportation Fuel Market US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) Compliance with RFS2 40 35 30 25 20 15 Estimates Targets 36 B gallons of renewable transportation fuel by 2022 Supply limitations will prevent refiners from achieving RFS2 targets Challenges in overcoming Ethanol blend wall Technology availability 10 Feedstock availability 5 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 State directives (LCFS) provide additional incentives Ethanol, corn based Biomass-Based Diesel (BBD) Cellulosic Biofuel (CB) Advanced (BBD or CB) IHS Forecast Sources: Volumes for 2014 & 2015 from PIRA Jan 2015; Volumes 2016-2020 from EPA Demand from IHS Dec 2014 update * Ethanol equivalent based on energy content; for example 1 gallon of green diesel = 1.7 ethanol equivalent gallons
RTP - Rapid Thermal Processing Transportable fuel Energy densification relative to biomass Maximum liquid yield 65 75 Wt-% RTP Unit Forest Residue Fuel Oil Substitution Electricity Production Agricultural Waste Upgrade to Transport Fuels (Gasoline, Jet & Diesel) Decouples biomass conversion from energy generation
CO 2 Emissions Forecast: Aviation Industry CO 2 Emissions Key Drivers of Emissions Reductions Using less fuel Efficient Airplanes Operational Efficiency Baseline Low Carbon Fuels Changing the fuel Sustainable Biofuels Carbon Neutral Timeline 2050 Low carbon fuels a key part of emissions reduction
Green Jet Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) Green Jet Fuel (Bio-SPK) has equal or higher energy intensity as fossil jet fuel Combustion of Bio-SPK does not count towards GHG Carbon cycle for plants No significant land use changes (LUC) Camelina displaces fallow weeds in crop rotation with wheat Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Intensity Conventional Jet Fuel Green Jet Fuel 68% Reduction Fuel Transport Effluent Fuel Production Oil Transport No food production is displaced by camelina seed cultivation Combustion of Bio-SPK does not count towards GHG Oil Extraction and Refining Seed Transport Cultivation Bio-SPK Fossil Fuel 0 50 100 g CO 2 Eq. / MJ
Key Properties of Green Jet Description Jet A-1 Specs Production Viability Demonstrated Fuel Samples from Different Sources Meet Key Properties Jatropha Derived SPK Camelina Derived SPK Jatropha/ Algae Derived SPK Flash Point, o C Min 38 46.5 42.0 41.0 Freezing Point, o C Max -47-57.0-63.5-54.5 JFTOT@300 o C Filter dp, mmhg max 25 0.0 0.0 0.2 Tube Deposit Less Than < 3 1.0 <1 1.0 Net heat of combustion, MJ/kg min 42.8 44.3 44.0 44.2 Viscosity, -20 deg C, mm 2 /sec max 8.0 3.66 3.33 3.51 Sulfur, ppm max 3000 <0.0 <0.0 <0.0 Over 6000 US Gallons of bio-spk made UOP Green Jet
The AltAir Renewable Jet Fuel Project Deoxygenation Reactor Hydrocracking & Isomerization Reactor Product Separation Hydrogen Feedstocks Vegetable Oils, Animal Fats & Greases Acid Gas (to treating) Light Fuels Green Jet Water (to treating) Technology: UOP Renewable Jet Fuel Process Product: Green Jet Fuel Location: Los Angeles, CA Specifics: United Airlines utilizes AltAir lower-carbon, renewable jet fuel on Flights Today Green Diesel 2014 Start-up Very successful Operation 1st full-scale plant dedicated renewable jet fuel for commercial use
Approaches for CO 2 Utilization Reductant Reaction Pathway I. Hydrogen Reverse WGS + Chemical Synthesis CO 2 + H 2 CO + H 2 O syn-gas chemicals or F-T fuels Methanation Doable but Expensive II. CH 4 III. Electrical Power IV. Solar Dry Reforming WGS Fuels/Chemicals CH 4 + CO 2 2H 2 + 2 CO Dry gasification of coal Direct electrochemical reduction CO 2 + e- CO or H 2 CO Visible (400-700 nm) Pathways 1. Solar photochemical (direct CO 2 ) 2. Solar Biological (Algae) 3. Solar H 2 (water splitting) High Potentialneeds catalytic process Very Long Range R&D
Summary for Discussion Market and Non-Technical Factors will continue to be Disruptive to the Energy, Refinery and Chemical Industries This always creates Technology Opportunities for those Organizations that are ready Strategic Planning to Cover Alternative Scenarios is Important If the Planning is done in a way that is supported by Technology Platforms important to the company, best case scenario
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