1 The 16 th IUAPPA CLEAN AIR CONGRESS CAPE TOWN 2013 An Integrated Model of Energy Consumption Pattern in Transport Section in Tehran SADREDDIN ALIPOUR PhD in Environmental Management
Statement of the problem The total size of the vehicles produced in 4 years Only about one-fifth of the nation's gasoline consumption in the city of Tehran 3567241000 2
3 Goals Identifying Energy consumption in transport sector Determine the energy consumption in the transport sector for 2020 Using GIS to determine the spatial distribution of energy consumption determine amount or the potential for energy savings in the transport sector Study strengths - weaknesses (internal factors) and opportunities - threats (external factors) in order to develop strategies to implement environmental measures in urban Calculate social costs of energy consumption Achieve qualitative and quantitative planning or implementation of optimization measures Proposal and the conceptual model to optimize the transport sector Developing management strategies to achieve savings in transportation Developing strategies for energy consumption patterns
4 Materials and Methods
Providing Basic Data Energy Consumption Number of Vehicles Vehicle Congestion Driving cycle 5
Questionnaire 100 questionnaires distributed among four groups of employees, experts and professors and students. Taking 100 as the population size, resulting in a 95% confidence level, a sample size of 88 was calculated in the most conservative case, 96 questionnaires have been distributed. 25 questions for each group As follows: 18 Masters of the questionnaire 25 Student Questionnaire 20 employees Questionnaire 22 questionnaires expert group 6
Use Methods of strategic management SWOT Matrix SPACE Matrix QSPM Matrix 7
Use Related Software Energy and Environment Software GIS LEAP Model 8
Use Statistics Analysis Active Vehicle fuel consumption in different places Y e kjk i j Effect on fuel consumption fuel system ijk The effect of age on the consumption of gasoline cars on the theory of random variable regression Yi xi ei i 1,2,..., n The use of vehicles with auxiliary factors influencing Y i E x 0 1 11... x e 1 2 e 0, Var e W i i k i ik i, i 1,2,..., n The estimated population of vehicles in a 95% confidence interval N Nˆ Z var( ˆ 1 N) :. 96 9
Study Area Specifications Tehran metropolitan transportation: 9 million inhabitants and more than 11 million floating The largest metropolis of the country and the Middle East More than 3.5 million vehicles in traffic 15 million trips daily rides Consumes about 13 million liters of petrol 10
Tehran Comprehensive Strategic Plan Outlook in 1404 11
Tehran fuel consumption (liters) Daily and monthly consumption in 2011 2011 Gasoline monthly consumption CNG monthly consumption April 268869000 38134092 May 303236000 41211648 June 296577000 43464999 July 317842000 42235113 August 303030000 42747109 September 293735000 45945503 October 380179000 46276260 November 294383000 48214230 December 274024000 48512340 January 276326000 38713050 February 273906000 42726240 March 285134000 41313574 3567241000 519495158 12
Distribution of vehicles in areas Traffic situation in the different days and different areas the effect of different sampling clocks Numerous vehicles stopped at the margins Stop the car in the parking lot of home Distribution of vehicles in different time 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Before 12 Between 12 and 16 After 16 13
Effective internal factors evaluation matrix by optimizing fuel and energy consumption in the transport of metropolitan Tehran opportunities value Impact Score Final score Equitable distribution of national opportunities 0.03 2 0.06 due to subsidies elimination To reduce energy consumption due to rising fuel prices 0.08 3 0.24 Potential for tele work jobs 0.08 3 0.24 Potential to produce high quality fuel in the 0.04 1 0.04 country Take advantage of the clear pedestrian and 0.06 2 0.12 bicycle transportation new technologies in production cars in the world 0.07 3 0.21 adequate financial resources to optimize fuel 0.05 3 0.15 consumption the potential in savings the transport sector 0.1 4 0.4 structural and social behaviors in the use of public transport Threats 0.09 4 0.36 lack of suitable and safe routes for cycling 0.06 2 0.12 Inappropriate patterns of urban travel 0.08 2 0.16 no single center of decision making for the 0.07 2 0.14 management of traffic in Tehran Raise the cost of public transport 0.07 1 0.07 numerous international economic sanctions 0.05 2 0.1 Lack of private sector support 0.07 2 0.14 sum 2.55 14
Effective internal factors evaluation matrix by optimizing fuel and energy consumption in the transport of metropolitan Tehran title Positive/ strength points Value Impact Score Final Score Fuel Subsidy omitting 0.05 4 0.3 government agencies and to develop online purchases 0.05 3 0.15 Religious beliefs regarding the proper use of resources 0.02 3 0.06 Standards for energy consumption in the transport sector 0.07 4 0.28 attract private sector investment and foreign 0.02 3 0.06 Removal of old cars 0.06 4 0.24 Development of rapid bus lines and special lines moving bus 0.1 4 0.4 companies Development of vehicle inspection centers 0.03 4 0.12 intelligent traffic control systems and design of traffic 0.06 4 0.24 Lack of adequate funding for the development of urban public transport Weaknesses 0.05 2 0.1 Cars and mismatch effects at low prices with car emissions 0.03 2 0.06 Stock and commodity accumulation in downtown Tehran 0.04 1 0.04 Lack of sufficient capacity to transport urban metro, light rail 0.1 2 0.2 The use of old technology in domestic car production 0.06 2 0.12 Old texture of underground transport routes 0.04 1 0.04 Tend to use private cars 0.06 2 0.12 Have administrative bureaucracy 0.02 1 0.02 Inappropriate distribution of load and cargo 0.06 2 0.12 High fuel consumption vehicles and domestic fuel use 0.08 2 0.16 nonstandard Sum 27.3 15
Penetration of various technologies and fuels in passenger cars fleet in 2026 Vehicle technology or fuel type Vehicle percentage Penetration in 1405 Fuel percentage CNG 8.5 12.1 LIGHT DIESEL 24.7 17.7 LPG 3.7 5 Hybrid 1 GASOLINE 57.1 65.3 3-CYLINDER PETROL 5 FUEL REDUCE CONSUMPTION SYSTEM(EcoSaving) AUTHOMATICAL SWITCH ON AND OFF TECHNOLOGY WHEN THE ENGINE IS STOPPED(IDLE) Technology percentage Normal 85 In this regard, numerous studies fuel cell pilot production to 100 vehicles in 2025 8.5 6.5 16
The potential for reducing fuel consumption and emissions in the transport sector Significant potential savings in the transport sector(annually) Annually )Million barrels of oil equivalent( CO2( 1000 tones( Standard fuel consumption of light vehicles and motorcycles 13.42 4750.80 Standard fuel consumption of heavy vehicles 5.19 2171.53 Dismantle old Light cars 21.99 7714.42 Dismantle old heavy cars 27.35 11449.63 Dismantle old motorcycles 4.76 1669.17 Electrifying Tehran-mashahd and Tehran- Bandarabbas lines 6.20 2385.03 Developing urban rail transport 16.20 6231.84 Developing ITS and decreasing Trip Demand Management 12.60 4846.99 Producing 100 thousand diesel pickup 1.56 601.08 Sum 19.27 41775.47 17
Display the amount of energy in the streets by GIS 18
Review public transport (buses and minibuses) to 2025 The proposed bus network in Tehran Proposed specific lines in Tehran In 2020 the share of public transport and semi public transport trips per day is 75% of the share of public transport, including urban train, bus and minibus totaling 55%of this amount 22% share of the bus and a 3% share buses and minibuses with service type 19
Effects of increasing Metro shares on decreasing fuel consumption Due to the increase in the share of rail transport from 8.1% to 30% in accordance with the law and the increasing frequency of 1.6 to 504 million trips in 2020 based on comprehensive plan and on the other hand considering the savings in fuel consumption of 6 liters per trip by subway, it can conclude that 3.8 million people travel by subway can lead to reduce 2.3 million liters daily consumption 20
Gasoline consumption per week Analysis of the relationship between fuel consumption and land use Taxi cars basically have lower age of vehicles and generally due to the lack of tuning, the fuel consumption of these vehicles is much higher than other vehicles The number of taxi vehicles are in very high Volume of levels that will have a major impact on fuel consumption and total The black line in the figure is the average fuel consumption per group and whatever the more length of confident is more so it means the distribution of consumption of the group Graph comparing the fuel consumption by 95% confident among different user groups 21
متوسط ميزان مصرف سوخت ( ليتر در هفته ) The effect of the fuel system on fuel consumption Although the land use has an impact on fuel consumption and also bunkering system also has no effect on fuel consumption. But Fuel system has effect on fuel consumption due to the type of land use. So that if the vehicle with usage as a taxi and with a carburetor so in this mode fuel consumption is much higher than in other cases. Therefore, the taxi cars with carburetor system have basically high fuel consumption. Confident length 95% for comparing fuel system on fuel consumption سيستم سوخت رساني 22
Analysis of Statistical Population of Working Vehicles The age distribution of vehicles in different areas are not same Distribution of working vehicles at different times are not equal. So maximum Working vehicles population exist before 12 and in district no. 6 and the minimum Working vehicles population exist before 12 o clock and in district no. 18. The maximum estimated Working Vehicles population with 95% Confidence is about 2,291,757, 95%. But working vehicle population is in the form of a function of scattering which varies in different area and different hours. 23
Synthesized strategies from the SWOT matrix method Development and enhancement of systems and modern technology Development of public transport, with emphasis on expanding the subway and express bus lines Making culture in order to use public transport on the basis of religious beliefs Upgrade the standard of vehicles by use of new technology Outdated and worn out old and high consuming vehicles Actuatingه the real fuel cost and omitting subsidy To finance the users of public transport and support low consumers Limiting system performance, including the real charges and penalties for high consumers Create Clean transport infrastructure development such as bicycle and pedestrian Development of electronic services for purchasing and administrative services and reduce traffic Rehabilitate and improve freight and cargo Network of roads and appropriate access development Proper use of the private sector to participate in development projects Focus and avoiding a multiplicity of decision-making units in traffic and transportation sector Government support in financing the development of public and clean transport Expand inspection centers to control fuel consumption 24
A conceptual model is proposed for the design optimization of energy consumption in the transport sector Effect of vehicle use on fuel consumption effect of the fuel system on consumption Effect of vehicle Age on effect of active vehicles volume on fuel consumption Information on energy consumption Statistics for the number of vehicles Information about the density of vehicles Reference driving cycle condition Traffic Comprehensive Plan Information Pollution Comprehensive Plan Information Fuel Basket Public Transport Development Law Collect Information based on converting data from energy and transport resources Implementation of available Strategic Plan Use GIS Data Use of Modeling Program LEAP use Energy environment software Analysis of Statistical Information Use Traffic Planning Use Simulation Software Electronic city development- increase Electronic Service offices to 200 Development of intelligent traffic control system- increase the number of cameras to 1000 8.5 percent CNG vehicles 2.4% of Light diesel vehicles 3.7% of LPG 1% of hybrid vehicles 62.1% of Gasoline vehicles Use IT in Traffic Management Use Ne Technologies in Vehicles Training and Advertisement Public Transportation Road Network Travel Demand Management Parking Development Construction of 41000 non-marginal parking spaces 15% reduction in daily trips Increase from 2731 to 2949 km road network 55% reduction in fuel consumption after realizing transportation plans Energy-optimized model Extract guidelines and strategic actions Evaluation Matrix Interoperability of environmental and social costs of energy efficiency measures Energy Consumption Efficiency Operation Phase 25
Administrative policies in the transport energy optimization Defining long term and short term policies Determine applicable priorities and plans and projects Establish criteria, standards and energy labels Active and effective coordination of institutions and organizations related to transportation Investigating fuel consumption of imported cars Evaluating quality and determine produced fuel Assessment of heavy and light vehicle fleet 26
Brief suggestion for Tehran transport Area Road Network Public Transportation Network Demand Management suggestions Highway road network improvements Improvement of interchanges Arterial road network projects and access Accelerate the completion of the subway lines in terms of finance and implementation Development of bus lanes in the city Bus Rapid Transit(BRT) Electronic city development vehicles alternative travel project Recommendations on locations and activity mode of trade and administrative complex Strategy of compressed working hours, in the form of time management and career centers Constraints in duration of parking along 860 km of urban streets Construction of 413000 non-marginal parking spaces in order to supply some of reduced parking spaces because of strategies ban imposed time constraints Park margin due to the policy of 22% share of passenger trips within urban trips Determine the most suitable site for the construction of parking non marginal Construction proposal of 91000 mechanical parking space and 322000 mechanized parking space 27
General Suggestions A) Underlying the Legal and Legislative 1- Too distribute tasks among different ministries and agencies 2- Interference of different organizations and ministries 3- Lack of a comprehensive approach to monitoring Environmental Protection Organization on environmental issues B) Requirements and procedures to facilitate the implementation process 1- Lack of necessary support in infrastructure to law enforcement 2- Lack of Comprehensive supportive approach 3- Mode and enforcement warranty 28
Technical Suggestions Locations and activity mode of trade and administrative complex Intensive time management in terms of work hours and job centers Even and odd projects Urban Train )8.1 million trains travel through 490 km of 9 lines, 4 lines, 3 lines complement Express) and a special bus line Extremist )195 km special bus line) Electric cars, hybrid, three-cylinder fuel cell Eco Saving و Idle technology Information Technologies, Intelligent traffic management, intelligent transportation tax Comprehensive system of distribution of goods and services based on e- shopping Fundamental research to validate the proposed model, and provide solutions to various sectors in accordance with the terms of metropolitan and driving cycles, the fuel consumption rates for different vehicles Taking advantage of the proposed model in other metropolises and study the feedbacks in interval of 5 years 29
Clean is nice Thank you