North American Construction: The Canadian Perspective Dale Orr Managing Director, Canadian Macro Services
Canada Moves Ahead of the United States 4.0 Real GDP (percent change) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Canada U.S. 0.5 0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 2
No Recession in Canada 6 Real GDP (percent change, annualized) 5 4 3 2 1 0 Canada U.S. -1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 3
Canada s Housing Market Particularly Stronger than in U.S. 120 Housing Starts (2006Q1 = 100) 100 80 60 40 20 Canada U.S. 0 2006Q1 2006Q4 2007Q3 2008Q2 2009Q1 2009Q4 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 4
Construction Growth Rates Slowing Now 20 15 RGDP Residential Construction Non-Residential Construction (Percent change) 10 5 0-5 -10 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 5
Construction Shares 6.5 6.0 (Percent of Real GDP) 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 Residential Construction Non-Residential Construction 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 6
Housing Starts Moving Off Peak 300 Housing Starts Singles 250 (Thousands) 200 150 100 50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 7
Residential Construction Prices Leading Inflation 150 140 Resid Construction Price CPI 130 (2002 = 100) 120 110 100 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 8
Canada s Growth is Uneven 3.5 2008 Real GDP (percent change) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 British Columbia Alberta Ontario Quebec Canada Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 9
Construction Larger but Shrinking in the East Share of Canada Total, (percent) 60 55 50 45 40 35 Ontario + Quebec Alberta + B.C. 30 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 10
Housing Starts by Region Share of Canada Total, (percent) 60 55 50 45 40 35 Ontario + Quebec Alberta + B.C. 30 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 11
Alberta Leads Nonresidential Construction 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Nonresidential construction (2006 to 2011 annualized growth, percent) 0 British Columbia Alberta Ontario Quebec Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 12
Alberta s Growth Demands Infrastructure 4.5 Infrastructure (2006 to 2011 annualized growth, percent) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 British Columbia Alberta Ontario Quebec Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 13
Thank You Dale Orr Managing Director, Canadian Macro Services E-mail: dale.orr@globalinsight.com Presentations are available for download at www.globalinsight.com/events/2008constructionchicago
North American Construction: The U.S. Perspective Mark Lauritano Managing Director, Financial Services Custom Solutions
Employment Growth: 2008 Q4, % Change From 2007 Q4-1.3 to 0.0 0.0 to 0.3 0.3 to 0.7 0.7 to 1.3 1.3 to 2.0 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 16
Construction Share of Employment: 2006 1.8 to 4.9 5.0 to 6.5 6.5 to 8.8 8.9 to 11.2 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 17
Housing Recession percent change year ago 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Florida 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 percent change year ago 7 6 5 4 3 2 Arizona 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 0.5 04 05 Job Growth 06 07 Unemployment 3.0 1 04 05 Job Growth 06 07 Unemployment 3.0 Nevada California percent change year ago 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 percent change year ago 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 0 04 05 Job Growth 06 07 Unemployment 4.0 0.0 04 05 Job Growth 06 07 Unemployment 4.5 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 18
Residential Construction: 2008 Annual % Change 0-10 5 Best States 5 Worst States 0-10 Percent change -20-30 -40-50 Percent change -20-30 -40-50 -60-60 -70 Louisiana Idaho Oklahoma N. Carolina Kentucky -70 Hawaii Alaska Utah Arizona Maine Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 19
Residential 2010: Q2 as % of Peak 90 80 70 5 Best States 5 Worst States 90 80 70 Percent change 60 50 40 30 Percent change 60 50 40 30 20 20 10 10 0 Louisiana Oklahoma Pennsylvania Montana Texas 0 Michigan Nevada Maine D.C. Massachusetts Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 20
Peak-to-trough: Changes in Residential Spending Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 21
Commercial Construction 2010 07 CAGR 0.0-0.5-1.0 5 Best States 5 Worst States 0.0-0.5-1.0 Percent change -1.5-2.0-2.5-3.0-3.5 Percent change -1.5-2.0-2.5-3.0-3.5-4.0-4.0-4.5-4.5-5.0 District of Columbia Utah Georgia Texas Arizona -5.0 Alaska Ohio Maine Indiana West Virginia Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 22
Infrastructure Construction 2010 07 CAGR 15 5 Best States 5 Worst States 15 10 10 Percent change 5 0 Percent change 5 0-5 -5-10 California Oklahoma Florida Idaho Colorado -10 D.C. Hawaii N. Dakota S. Dakota Wyoming Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 23
Education Construction 2010 07 CAGR 8.0 7.0 6.0 5 Best States 5 Worst States 8.0 7.0 6.0 Percent change 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Percent change 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0-1.0 Nevada Indiana Arizona Utah Louisiana -1.0 Maryland S. Carolina Alaska Missouri Ohio Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 24
Peak-to-trough: Changes in Nonresidential Spending Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 25
Residential MSA Markets: 2007 12 CAGR Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 26
Nonresidential MSA Markets: 2007 12 CAGR Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. 27
Thank You Mark Lauritano Managing Director, Financial Services Custom Solutions E-mail: mark.lauritano@globalinsight.com Presentations are available for download at www.globalinsight.com/events/2008constructionchicago