The U.S. Solar Energy Industry: Powering America Katherine Stainken Director, Government Affairs NASEO Energy Policy Outlook Conference February 4 th, 2015
About SEIA Founded in 1974 U.S. National Trade Association for Solar Energy 1,000 member companies from around the world Members from across 50 states Largest companies in the world as well as small installers Our Mission: Build a strong solar industry to power America Our Goal: 10 gigawatts (GW) of annual installed solar capacity in the U.S. by 2015 February 4, 2015 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association 2
Yearly Installed Solar Capacity (MW) Solar in America: Strong and Getting Stronger 8,000 Yearly U.S. Solar Installations 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E Residential (PV) Non-residential (PV) Utility (PV) Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) February 4, 2015 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association 3
Solar as an Economic Engine Nearly 174,000 American workers in solar more than double the number in 2009 at 6,100 companies across the country February 4, 2015 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association 4
Millions Investment in Solar has increased 10x since 2006 $16.00 Yearly U.S. Solar Investment $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E February 4, 2015 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association 5
Broad-Based Adoption: Homes, Businesses, Utilities February 4, 2015 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association 6
Blended Average Solar PV Price ($/watt) Solar PV Installations (MWdc) Growth in Solar led by Falling Prices $12.00 7,000 $10.00 6,000 $8.00 5,000 $6.00 4,000 3,000 $4.00 2,000 $2.00 1,000 $- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 0 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Tracking the Sun Solar PV Installations Solar PV Prices February 4, 2015 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association 7
Installed Cost ($/watt) Prices in all market segments near Sunshot Goals $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Residential Commercial Utility SunShot Goal: Residential SunShot Goal: Commercial SunShot Goal: Utility February 4, 2015 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association 8
Third-Party Ownership plateaus, but with large market share 100% Percentage of New Residential Installations Third-Party Owned 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q1-2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 California Arizona Colorado Massachusetts New Jersey New York February 4, 2015 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association 9
Installations (MWdc) Non-Residential Market: Crossing the Financing Gap 450 U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment, Q1 2010 Q3 2014 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Residential Non-Residential February 4, 2015 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association 10
Solar PV Capacity (MWdc) Utility PV Market: Pipeline Replenishing Utility PV Pipeline 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 4,526 27,503 5,000 8,137 9,967 0 Operating Contracted (PPA Signed) Announced (Pre Contract In Construction February 4, 2015 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association 11
Concentrating Solar Power: Recent Surge February 4, 2015 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association 12
Another Strong Year Expected in 2015 Over 8.5 GW of solar installations in 2015 8.4 GW Photovoltaics 112 MW Concentrating Solar Power 18% growth over last year (30% growth in PV market) A new installation every 2.5 minutes By years end, over 28 GW of solar in U.S. Nearing 1 million cumulative solar installations Enough solar in U.S. to power 5.5 million+ homes Displace CO 2 equivalent to 8 coal power plants, emissions from 6.3 million vehicles February 4, 2015 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association 13
Installed Solar Electric Capacity (MW) 34% Average Annual Growth Projected through 2016 14,000 U.S. Solar Installation Forecast 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Projected February 4, 2015 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association 14
Installed Photovoltaic Capacity (MWdc) Continued Growth Across All Market Segments 7,000 Installed PV Capacity by Market Segment 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Residential Non-Residential Utility February 4, 2015 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association 15
36% of Electric Capacity Installed in 2014 through Q3 from Solar New U.S. Generating Capacity by Fuel Type 100% 4% 8% 2% 90% 7% 15% 80% 41% 10% 0% 70% 60% 47% 50% 16% 46% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 31% 36% 29% 10% 2012 2013 Q1-Q3 2014 Solar Natural Gas Coal Wind Other February 4, 2015 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association 16
Installed Capacity (MW) Percentage of Total Generation Solar Increasingly Important Part of Generation Mix SEIA estimate from EIA data 45,000 1.8% 40,000 1.6% 35,000 1.4% 30,000 1.2% 25,000 1.0% 20,000 0.8% 15,000 0.6% 10,000 0.4% 5,000 0.2% 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 0.0% Cumulative Solar Electric Installations Solar as % of Total Electric Generation February 4, 2015 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association 17
SEIA Policy Priorities: Federal & Trade Investment Tax Credit Preserve and Extend at 30% Beyond 2016 Modify to include Commence Construction Preserve MACRS Project Finance Increase tax equity pool through PWI authority and CRA Expand MLPs to include renewable energy Lead effort to resolve U.S.-China trade conflict Solar codes and safety standards EPA 111d February 4, 2015 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association 18
SEIA Policy Priorities: State Renewable Portfolio Standards Defend and Expand; advocate for SHC NEM, rate design and incentives in key states: CA, AZ, CO, NY, NV, MA, NJ & mid-atlantic, TX, GA & southeast Expand policies to support DG Grid Integration Outreach & education to key policymakers Research and address key issues February 4, 2015 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association 19
Thank you! Questions? kstainken@seia.org 202-682-0556 Upcoming regional solar events State Jobs Report Reliability Paper February 4, 2015 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association 20