Global Trends in Motor Vehicle Pollution Control A 2013 Update November 5, 2013 Michael P. Walsh International Consultant Founding Chairman Board of Directors, International Council on Clean Transportation 1
Key Points Health Concerns Major Driver of Vehicle Emissions Regulations PM 2.5 Remains The Most Serious Air Pollution Problem; Ozone Also Serious Concern Very Effective Vehicle Controls Now Available But Require Very Low Sulfur Fuels Technologies Continue to Advance - California Pushing The Technology Envelope Fuel Economy/CO2 Regulations Spreading 2
Health effects of fine particles Breathing fine particles (PM 2.5 ) causes adverse effects on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems (PM 2.5 ) Ambient (outdoor) PM 2.5 exposures are linked to Premature death Heart attacks Strokes Hospital and emergency room visits Acute and chronic bronchitis Asthma-related effects PM 2.5 may also be associated with infant mortality, low birth weight, and cancer 3
Ambient PM 2.5 Now Among The Leading Global Risks For Mortality And Lost Years Of Healthy Life In 2010 AB BCDEBF B F B AB
Vehicle Pollution is an Increasingly Important Challenge
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Automobiles and the Environment Global Environment Urban Environment Emissions CO2, BC VOC,NOx,PM Alternative Fuels Energy Security Convenience Recycle Economy Safety
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Widespread Exposure to Vehicle Emissions in Urban Areas Transport Pollution is Ubiquitous
PM10 Exposures in Hanoi micrograms/cubic meter 700 600 500 580 495 408 400 300 262 200 100 0 Mobikes Walking In Cars In Buses WHO Guideline 50 Commuters Exposure to Particulate Matter and Carbon Monoxide in Hanoi, Vietnam: A Pilot Study East West Center Working Paper No. 64, Nov 2006 14
New: June 2012 - WHO Classifies Diesel Engine Exhaust As Group 1 Known Carcinogen 15
Transport Problems Not Limited To Road Vehicles
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Looking Ahead: 15 Of The World s Top 20 Ports Are In Asia Source: American Association of Port Authorities, 2009 Provided by Rich Kassel 18
Elements of a Comprehensive Vehicle Pollution Control Strategy B B Clean Vehicle Technologies B F AA A Clean Fuels Transportation & Land use Planning Appropriate Maintenance
Treat Vehicles and Fuels as a Single System Evap. HC HC, CO NOx, Particulates Vehicle technology can bring large emission reductions. Fuels must be suitable for the vehicles to perform well.
The Three-way Catalytic Converter: A Familiar Technology Re- Engineered for High Performance in Close-coupled and Underfloor Applications Layered washcoat architectures and support materials with high thermal stability Integrated HC adsorption functions Mounting materials with improved durability High cell density ceramic or metallic substrates Insulation schemes for heat management F FB F AA AB F B AB B B B B B B
Technology Now Exists To Clean Vehicles U.S. and Europe Light-Duty Vehicle Emission Standards mg/km 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 80 250 250 Gasoline NOx Diesel NOx Diesel PM X 10 60 180 50 60 80 45 43 43 62 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6 U.S. Tier 2, Bin 5 2005 2009 2014 2007/2009 Euro 5+ (2011) and 6 include 6 X 10 11 /km particle number limit Euro 6 PM mass limit uses revised PMP mass protocol 12 12 62 ARB SULEV
Technology Now Exists To Clean Vehicles U.S. and Europe Heavy-Duty Engine Transient Cycle Emission Standards g/kwh Diesel NOx Diesel PM X 100 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 3.50 3.0 2.00 3.0 0.40 1.0 1.5 50 1.3 0.65 1.3 Euro IV Euro V Euro VI U.S. 2007 U.S. 2010 2005 2008 2013 (max NOx) 0.26 1.3 U.S. 2010 (std.) Euro VI includes particle number limit
F F A F F A F AB A BCDCE A FF A A F F A D F A Diesel 15 ppm ABCD ABC ABC A B C A BC A EF EF C C A BCDC EF C EF C D C B B B Diesel 50/10 ppm BCDC
Even Starting To Be Phased in on Off Road Vehicles Require PM and NOx aftertreatment Require PM aftertreatment Slide 26
Why Are Fuels Important? Fuel Constituents Directly Affect Emissions Fuel Changes Can Immediately Impact on Emissions/Air Quality Fuel Composition Can Enable/Disable Pollution Control Technology
Why Low Sulfur Fuel? Reducing sulfur lowers emissions from existing vehicles SO 2 from all vehicles PM from diesel vehicles CO, HC, NOx, toxics from all catalyst-equipped vehicles Enables advanced technologies & tight standards for new vehicles Enables retrofit technologies to clean up existing vehicles 28
A B C DBE FB BF B CC C ABCB D EF B DF CF D AF B C DD B A C F F DF FA F B F CF D BF DB F BDCFA 29
Slide 30 Not including Transition Refineries
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Results of the British Columbia I/M Program Audit CO (g/km) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Before Repair After Repair 0 Pre-1981 1981-87 Post 1987
We Now Face A New Global Challenge: Climate Change Melt descending into a moulin, a vertical shaft carrying water to ice sheet base. Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)
Remember 2011! Severe Drought Followed By Extreme Flooding 36
Source; WMO GHG Bulletin Number 8 37
Low Sulfur Fuel Impacts On Greenhouse Gases Improves Performance of PM Trap Equipped Vehicles Shorter Regeneration Less Frequent Regeneration Enhances Prospects For Lean NOx Controls Common Rail DI Diesel GDI N 2 O & CH 4 Minimized From TWC Cars
Policy Progress Is Occurring on CO2 Grams CO 2 per Kilomete er normalized to NEDC 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 Solid dots and lines: historical performance Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets Hollow dots and dotted lines: target under study S. Korea 2015: 153 Mexico 2016: 173 China 2020: 117 Japan 2020: 105 EU 2020: 95 40 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 A B CDEB CEF E BA D A E E EA E B CDEB E EC EC E E ECD E EA CE A ECE E D B B E EA E D B EC E EA US-LDV Canada-LDV EU Japan China S. Korea Australia Mexico Canada 2025:109 US 2025:109
BC: Linking Climate and Air Pollution Black Carbon (BC) is part of the air pollution mixture known as particulate matter (PM) Most strongly light-absorbing component of PM Formed by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and biomass, and is a major component of soot Mainly found in the fine particle (PM 2.5 ) fraction, which is most strongly linked to adverse health effects 40
Most Recent Study Says Black Carbon is Second Only To CO2 41
Mobile Sources Are Responsible For ~25% Of Global Black Carbon Emissions Source: Bond et al., GBC 2007 + van der Werf, 2006 + updates for IPCC AR5
Diesel Vehicles and Engines are Ideal Candidates for Black Carbon Control Very high ratio of Black Carbon to Organic Carbon Ubiquitous Control Technology Exists Substantial Health Co- Benefits
A Critical Technology: Diesel Particulate Filters (DPFs) A B CC DCEF E A EA B E A D B B *Removes 90+% BC, PM; also HC and CO *Requires Ultralow Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) 44
California Continues to Push the Technology Envelope LEV III Particulate Matter Standards
Evaporative Emissions Extend zero-evaporative emission requirements currently in place for PZEVs to the entire light-duty vehicle fleet by MY 2022 Extend Onboard Refueling Vapor Recovery (ORVR) requirements to all complete vehicles less than 14,000 pounds GVWR
Meeting Longer Term GHG Goals Moving away from gasoline/diesel necessary H2 and electricity most likely replacement But must be produced with low carbon intensity Market for BEVs and FCEVs needs to start this decade To allow time for consumer acceptance and replacement of existing petroleum-fueled vehicles FCEVs likely essential if fleet has larger vehicles 47
40,000,000 Path to 2050: California s On-Road Vehicle Fleet LDV On-Road Ve ehicles 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 Conventional Vehicles Hybrids Plug-In Hybrids Hydrogen Fuel Cell & Battery Electric 79% 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year 48
ZEVs for Sale - 2012-20152015 EC A B B B F BC B BF F B F BC
Benefits of Reducing Vehicle Emissions Shindell et al. (2011) estimate adopting European vehicle standards in India, China, and other industrializing and developing countries would lead to: 120,000-280,000 avoided premature deaths in 2030 (valued at $0.6-2.4 trillion in 2006 USD) Mitigation of 0.2 C (+0.14 C/- 0.17 C) Northern Hemisphere extratropical warming during 2040-2070 6.1 19.7 million metric tons of avoided ozone related yield losses of major food crops Shindell, D., G. Faluvegi, M. Walsh, S.C. Anenberg, R. Van Dingenen, N.Z. Muller, J. Austin, D. Koch, G. Milly. 2011. Climate, health, agricultural and economic impacts of tighter vehicle emissions standards, Nature Climate Change, 1:59-66.
Progress Toward Clean Air 1970-2009 Pollution Down While Growth Continues 51
Thank You
Where Do We Go From Here? Developing a Clean Vehicles and Fuels Roadmap Regional Harmonization 53
Straw Man For Discussion Fuels 50 PPM Sulfur by 2015/16 10 PPM Sulfur by 2019 Vehicle Standards Euro 4/IV by 2015/16 Euro 6/VI by 2020