Implementing Vehicle Emission Standards and Equivalent Fuel Quality and the Case of Thailand s Roadmap to Euro 6/VI Dr. Supat Wangwongwatana Faculty of Public Health, Thammasat University Member of the Pollution Control Board of Thailand
Ambient Current State Air Quality of Air Quality in Bangkok in Bangkok 217 217 (Ambient) Pollutants Range 95 Percentile Standards Exceeding Average Standards 1 Year TSP (24-hr) mg/m 3 PM 1 (24-hr) g/m 3 7-13 71 12 /1938 () 36 PM 2.5 (24-hr) g/m 3 4-76 53 5 65/987 (6.59) 25 Pb (monthly ) g/m 3 CO (1-hr) ppm.-4.5 1.4 3 /3146 (.) 1. CO (8-hr) ppm.-4.35 1.4 9 /32265 (.) 1. O 3 (1-hr) ppb -182 63 1 264/46743 (.56) 21 O 3 (8-hr) ppb -12 55 7 744/48588 (1.53) 21 SO 2 (1-hr) ppb -23 5 3 /3387 (.) 2 SO 2 (24-hr) ppb -7 4 12 /139 (.) 2 NO 2 (1-hr) ppb -146 47 17 /44326 (.) 2 Annual Avg. Standards 5 25.4.4.3
Current State of Air Quality in Bangkok 217 (Roadside) Pollutants Range 95 Percentile Standards Exceeding Average Standards 1 Year TSP (24-hr) mg/m 3 PM 1 (24-hr) g/m 3 11-136 93 12 7/1338 (.52) 53 PM 2.5 (24-hr) g/m 3 7-88 53 5 5/757 (6.61) 26 Pb (monthly ) g/m 3 CO (1-hr) ppm.-5.6 1.9 3 /3189 (.) 1. CO (8-hr) ppm -4.69 1.7 9 /32991 (.) 1. O 3 (1-hr) ppb -141 46 1 8/16959 (.5) 12 O 3 (8-hr) ppb -84 4 7 3/1756 (.17) 13 SO 2 (1-hr) ppb -25 5 3 /15763 (.) 2 SO 2 (24-hr) ppb -6 5 12 /668 (.) 2 NO 2 (1-hr) ppb -159 57 17 /29864 (.) 27 Annual Avg. Standards 5 25.4.4.3
1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 TSP (mg/m 3 ) No. of Vehicle: Mil. vehicles PM1 (ug/m 3 ) No. of vehicle: Mil. vehicles 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 CO (ppm) No. of vehicle: Mil. vehicles Trend of Air Quality in Bangkok 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 Other Truck Light duty diesel Roadside CO Bus Motorcycle Passenger car Ambient 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1. 2.5 1..6.5.4.3 Trend of Air Quality in Bangkok Other Bus Truck Motorcycle Light duty diesel Passenger car Roadside Ambient 1 year Std. TSP 1 9 8 7 6 5 12 1 8 6 Trend of Air Quality in Bangkok Other Bus Truck Motorcycle Light duty diesel Passenger car Roadside Ambient 1 year Std. PM1 1 9 8 7 6 5.2.1. 4 3 2 1 4 2 4 3 2 1
1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 SO 2 (ppb) NO. of Vehicle: Mill. Vehicles 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 NO 2 (ppb) No. of vehicle: Mil. vehicles Ozone (ppb) No. of Vehicle:(Mil. Vehicle Trend of Air Quality in Bangkok Trend of Air Quality in Bangkok 6 5 4 Truck Bus Light duty diesel Roadside 1 year Std. NO 2 Other Motorcycle Passenger car Ambient 1 9 8 7 6 25 2 15 Other Truck Light duty diesel Roadside Bus Motorcycle Passenger car Ambient 1 9 8 7 6 3 5 5 2 4 3 1 O 3 4 3 1 2 1 5 2 1 Trend of Air Quality in Bangkok 45 1 4 9 35 3 25 2 15 Other Truck Light duty diesel Roadside Standard Bus Motorcycle Passenger car Ambient SO 2 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 2 5 1
Annual Average PM 2.5 in Bangkok g/m 3 12 1 8 6 4 2 64 57 112 86 72 61 91 87 76 77 6 59 55 52 33 34 35 32 29 29 26 11 12 Standard = 25 g/m 3 9 ค าส งส Maximum ด 95 เปอร เซนไทล Percentile 95 ค าเฉล ย Average Minimum ค าต าส ด Linear (ค าเฉล ย) Regression R² =.7778 11 1 8 Euro 4 Euro 4 new 5 Fuels Vehicles ป 211 2554 ป 212 2555 ป 213 2556 ป 214 2557 ป 215 2558 ป 216 2559 ป 217 256
1 ม.ค. 1 ก.พ. 1 ม.ค. 1 เม.ย. 1 พ.ค. 1 ม.ย. 1 ก.ค. 1 ส.ค. 1 ก.ย. 1 ต.ค. 1 พ.ย. 1 ธ.ค. 31 ธ.ค. g/m 3 Daily Average PM 2.5 in Bangkok from 211-217 ป 211 2554 ป 215 2555 ป 212 2556 ป 216 2557 ป 213 2558 ป 217 2559 ป 214 256 ป 218 2561 Standard = 5 g/m 3
1,3-Butadiene ( g/m 3 ) Benzene ( g/m 3 ) Trend of Air Toxics in Bangkok 1 8 Annual Average Standard = 1.7 g/m 3 6 4 2 1.5 1.2 3.1 3 2.6 2.5 2.26 2.3 4.5 4.1 1..8.6 Annual Average Standard =.33 g/m 3.4.2..4.7.4.4.8.1.1.1.1.1 ERTC รพ.จ ฬาลงกรณ โชคช ย 4 ราชภ ฏบ านสมเด จฯ ด นแดง พ.ศ. 2551 พ.ศ. 2552 พ.ศ. 2553 พ.ศ. 2554 พ.ศ. 2555 พ.ศ. 2556 พ.ศ. 2557 พ.ศ. 2558 พ.ศ. 2559
Clean fuels and clean new vehicles are major contributing factors responsible for today Bangkok s cleaner air
Measures on Clean Fuels
Sulfur Content (ppm) Phasing Down Sulfur in Gasoline Fuel in Thailand 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 1, 5 Sulfur Euro 4 5 before 23 23 212
Sulfur Content (ppm) Phasing Down Sulfur in Diesel Fuel in Thailand 11, 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 5, 2,5 5 Euro 3 Euro 4 35 5 before 1993 1993 1996 1999 24 212
Thailand Fuel Specifications 25 and 212 Gasoline 25 212 (current) RVP 62 kpa 6 kpa 62 kpa for Gasohol with VRU Benzene 3.5 vol% 1 vol% 35 vol% Aromatics (42 vol% for 35 vol% Gasohol until 27) Olefins - 18 vol% Sulphur 5 ppm 5 ppm Diesel 25 212 (current) CI or CN 51 5 9% Distilled Temperature 357 C 357 C Poly-aromatics - 11 w% Sulfur 35 ppm 5 ppm
Measures on Clean Vehicles
Enforcement of Vehicle Emission Standards in Thailand Vehicle Types LDV Gasoline LDV Diesel Before 1995 MC ECE 4- Enforcement Years 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27-212 213 - Present Pre-Euro Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV Pre-Euro Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV ECE 4-1 CO 13 g/km HC 5 g/km CO 4.5 g/km HC+NOx 3 g/km White Smoke 3% Evaporative 2 g/test (for < 11cc.) CO 3.5 gm/km HC+ NOx 2 g/km White Smoke 15% Evaporative 2 g/test (for 15cc.) HDV Pre-Euro Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro III (Euro IV, 1 Jan. 218) 15 Courtesy of Dr.Savitri Garivait
Vehicle Population in Bangkok 9,27,65 as of 31 August 216 (9.8 million at end 217)
26 December 216
17 January 218
Last week of January Middle of February 218
Future Projection of Emissions from Road Transport in Bangkok if Stay on Euro 4 NOx Emission (kt) CO 2 Emission (kt) Courtesy of Dr. Savitri Garivait CO Emission during 21-25 NOx Emission during 21-25 PM Emission (kt) CO Emission (kt) PM Emission during 21-25 CO 2 Emission during 21-25
Much Cleaner Fuels and Cleaner Vehicles are needed!!! Euro 5/6 Fuel Quality and Vehicle Emission Standards to achieve Clean and Healthy Air for the People in Bangkok in the long term
Euro 5/6 Fuel Quality Standards
Comparison between Euro 4 and Euro 5 Fuel Specification Euro 4 Euro 5 1. Sulfur Not more than 5 ppm Not more than 1 ppm 2. Aromatics Not more than 35% by vol. Between 29-35% by vol. 3. Olefins Not more than 18% by vol. Between 3-13% by vol. 4. Benzene Not more than 1% by vol. Not more than 1% by vol. 5. RVP Not more than 62 KPa Between 56-6 kpa Euro 4 Euro 5 1. Cetane Not less than 5 Between 52-54 2. Sulfur Not more than 5 ppm Not more than 1 ppm 3. PAH Not more than 11% by weight Between 2-6% 24 by weight
Quality of Current Fuels in Thailand Euro 4 for gasoline and diesel fuels with sulfur not more than 5 ppm Euro 5 fuels with sulfur not more than 1 ppm are also available, E2 for gasoline by Bangchak Premium grade diesel by PTT Million liter/day Gasoline Million liter/day Diesel Euro 4 28 Euro 5.7 Source: Department of Energy Business (Jan-May 216) Euro 4 63 Euro 5.2
Euro 5/6 Vehicle Emission Standards
Development of Future Roadmap for Implementing Mitigation Measures in Transport Sector in Thailand Pollution Control Board of Thailand established a Sub- Committee on Emission Standards for Motor Vehicles in Thailand on 25 Feb. 215 The Sub-Committee established 4 Task Forces (16 March 216) Task Force on Vehicle Emission Standards Task Force on Fuel Quality Standards Task Force on Inspection and Maintenance Program Task Force on Emission Inventory for Bangkok The Sub-Committee plans to draw the conclusion on future fuel quality and vehicle emission standards and their implementation timelines by the first quarter of 217 for submission to the Pollution Control Board
Air Benefit Assessment Framework Data Input Energy or Fuel Consumption Combustion Technology Engine Technology Fuel Characteristic Control Technology Economic Factors 1) Emission Inventory Tool GAINS Model Result Thailand s GHG emissions & air pollutants (base year 21) Other data Input Information on Emissions Spatial and Temporal Distribution Gridded 12 x 12 km & 1 x 1 km (BMR) Tool GIS 3) AQ modeling & Emission Validation Data Input Monitored or Observed Air Pollutant Concentration 2) AQ Modeling & Simulation Result Gridded of GHG and Air Pollutants Emissions Result Uncertainty in AQ modeling and Emission Inventory Tool Statistical Analysis Result Modeled Air Pollutant Concentration Tool CAMx Model Other Data Input Meteorological 4 data Emissions Boundary Courtesy of Dr. Savitri Garivait
Air Benefit Assessment Framework 4. Future Emission Reduction Projection Scenarios Energy policy (PDP, EEDP, AEDP) Future Energy Consumption Potential Future Energy Demand Reduction 5. Emissions Mitigation Scenarios Current Legislation Scenario Maximum Technology Feasible Reduction No Further Control. 6. Air Benefit from Emission Reduction Assessment 7. Health Benefit Assessment 8. Emission Reduction Cost Assessment 9. Cost-Benefit Analysis and 41 Effective Emission Reduction Strategy Assessment
Proposed Roadmap for Future Fuel Quality and Vehicle Emission Standards for Thailand Euro 5/6 Fuel Quality Standards - Gasoline and Diesel 1 January 223 LDV Emission Standards - Euro 5-1 July 223 - Euro 6-1 July 229 HDV Emission Standards - Euro 5-1 January 226 - Euro 6-1 January 232
Emission Reduction Obtained from Using Euro 5 Fuels (Sulfur <1 ppm) in Inused Euro 3 and Euro 4 Vehicles instead of Euro 4 Fuels (Sulfur < 5 ppm) Diesel Vehicles Vehicle Standard Fuel Standard Percent of Emission Reduction (%) HC NO X CO CO 2 CH 4 PM Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5-51% % -38% -2% -4% -2% Euro 4 5 ppm S 1 ppm -25% -4% -32% -2% -12% -16% Gasoline Vehicles Courtesy of Dr. Savitri Garivait Vehicle Percent of Emission Reduction (%) Fuel Standard Standard HC NO X CO CO 2 CH 4 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5-2% -14% -35% % -7% Euro 4 5 ppm S 1 ppm -3% -31% -74% % -1%
% -1-2 -3-4 Emission Reduction obtained from Switching from <5 ppm Sulfur to <1 ppm Sulfur Diesel Fuel in Euro 3 and Euro 4 Diesel Vehicles HC NOx CO CO2 CH4 PM -25-4 -38-32 -2-2 -4-12 -2-16 -5-6 -51 Euro 3 Diesel Vehicle Euro 4 Diesel Vehicle
% -2 Emission Reduction Obtained from Switching from 5 ppm Sulfur to 1 ppm S Gasoline Fuel in Euro 3 and Euro 4 Gasoline Vehicles -2 HC NOx CO CO2 CH4-3 -14-7 -4-6 -31-35 -8-74 -1-12 Euro 3 Gasoline Vehicle Euro 4 Gasoline Vehicle -1
PM Emission from Road Transport (kt) PM Emission Reduction from Road Transport (%) PM Emission Reduction in the Road Transport in Bangkok from the Implementation of Euro 5/6 Roadmap Euro 5 & 6 Euro 4 Euro 5 & 6 BMR BMR Euro 4 Euro 5 & 6 Courtesy of Dr. Savitri Garivait
PM Emission from Road Transport (kt) PM Emission from Road Transport (kt) PM Emission Reduction in the Road Transport in Bangkok if Leapfrog to Euro 6 PM Emission Reduction from Road Transport (%) Euro 5 & 6 Euro 4 LDV & HDV Euro 4 Euro 5 & 6 1 8 6 Euro 5 and then 6 vs Leapfroging to Euro 6 Euro 5 and then 6 Leapfrog to Euro 6 Additional Emission Reduction Gained from Leapfroging to Euro 6 76.5 62.5 74 83.6 82.4 86.7 86.3 Leapfrog to Euro 6 4 38.4 58.1 LDV & HDV LDV & HDV Euro 4 Euro 6 2 5.1 5.1 33.2 5.2 4.4 2.5 1.2.4 225 23 235 24 245 25
NOx Emission from Road Transport (kt) NOx Emission Reduction from Road Transport (%) NOx Emission Reduction in the Road Transport in Bangkok from the Implementation of Euro 5/6 Roadmap Euro 5 & 6 Euro 4 Euro 5 & 6 BMR BMR Euro 4 Euro 5 & 6 Courtesy of Dr. Savitri Garivait
NOx Emission from Road Transport (kt) NOx Emission from Road Transport (kt) NOx Emission Reduction from Road Transport (%) NOx Emission Reduction in the Road Transport in Bangkok if Leapfrog to Euro 6 Impact on NO X Emission from LDV + HDV if Leapfrog to Euro 6 Euro 5 & 6 LDV & HDV Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 5 & 6 1 8 6 Euro 5 and then 6 vs Leapfroging to Euro 6 Euro 5 and then 6 Leapfrog to Euro 6 Additional Emission Reduction Gained from Leapfroging to Euro 6 57.7 69.5 LDV & HDV 74.8 76.8 75.3 71.7 63.4 Leapfrog to Euro 6 LDV & HDV Euro 4 Euro 6 4 2 2.1 36 2.5.4 47.4 22.8 13.2 1.3 6.1 3.1 1.5 225 23 235 24 245 25
Thank you for your attention