Over 100 pages of independent research and analysis CHINA :THE OUTLOOK TO 2020 FOR COPPER IN POWER CABLES A JOINT STUDY BY Copper usage in power cables accounts for around 25% of China s total refined copper consumption. Therefore, what happens in this sector will exert a significant impact on the country s overall growth of copper consumption. From this point of view, a dedicated analysis will be made to examine the State Grid Corporation s (SGC) expansion plans and illustrate how they are broken down into the three power cable categories: Low Voltage (LV), Medium Voltage (MV) and High Voltage (HV), both for the urban and rural sectors together with the implications for copper usage. The world perceives China to be the growth engine of global copper consumption. Given how important to that growth is its use in power cable, this report should be vital reading for copper producers, consumers, fabricators, banks, financial institutions, traders and merchants whether in China or elsewhere in the world. http://en.smm.cn/
Biographies of Authors: SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) is the leading Chinese metals market research and reporting firm, is the spot market price benchmark publisher in the Chinese market. Through utilizing its strong local network and market influence, SMM has been allowed to perform regular surveys among key industry players, before publishing a series of reliable research papers dating back to 2005. Those reports concern different facets of the Chinese base metals industry, including capacity, output, cost, profit, inventory, semi & downstream demand, expansion projects, merger & acquisition, imports & exports etc. SHSS (Simon Hunt Strategic Service) has been following closely the wire and cable industry since 1993 often visiting more than 30 mills a year. In 1997, SHSS produced a major study on the medium and high voltage cable markets in China with forecasts to 2010 (largely correct) for a major international cable company. SHSS is well placed to conduct a study on the future of copper used in the production of power cables to 2020. The combined resources and skills of SMM and SHSS make the group eminently suitable for conducting this study. Contact Us Shanghai Metals Market (SMM): SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd 23rd Floor, No.2000 North Zhongshan Rd, Putuo District, Shanghai 200063 China Tel: 86 21 5155 0306 Fax: 86 21 5266 7623 Email: service.en@smm.cn Website: http://en.smm.cn Simon Hunt Strategic Services (SHSS): Simon Hunt Strategic Services Ltd Quadrant House 7-9 Heath Road Weybridge, Surrey, KT138SX Tel: 44 (0) 1932 859111 Fax: 44 (0) 1932 831747 Email: simon@shss.com Website: http://www.shss.com
CHINA THE OUTLOOK FOR COPPER IN POWER CABLES TO 2020 Since 1990, copper used in the production of power cables has increased by an annual average of 13% a year up to 2008; and in the period 2000-2008 by 14% a year. Within these average growth rates, since 2000 HV cables have grown by an average of 35% a year whereas copper used in LV and MV cables have increased by 12% and 13% a year respectively. One of the features of the last twelve years has been the falling share of aluminum conductors used for LV and MV, in fact, declining from 25% and 27% to 17% and 18% respectively up to 2007. However with copper prices rising so rapidly together with its increasing volatility, aluminum conductors are starting to regain market share in line with global practices. The State Grid Company accounts for some 85% of power cable orders. It has an ambitious target, not just to improve the grid network in cities and towns, but to extend and improve the grid network within the rural sector. The question is how much of this program will be using copper conductors. In this regard, there are three main developments. How much share will Aluminum Conductor Steel Reinforced Cables (ACSR) account for the total especially in the rural sector? Will aluminium continue its pace in regaining market share from copper in LV and MV cables? When will the development of High Temperature Super Conductors (HTS) and their Components reach the stage that they will be introduced commercially in China. What will be the impact from the new technologies such as nanotubes, conductive polymers and graphite film on copper consumption? These developments could have a material effect on the use of copper in the national grid over the coming decade. What's more, China State Grid Corporation (SGC) also plans to develop a Smart Grid. How this development will impact the use of conductor materials will be examined also. Expert Comment: Utilities are demanding all-aluminum solutions all over the world. According to senior executives in major global wire and cable companies, copper has lost around 1 million tonnes in power and specialty cables since 2006 to aluminium and fibre optics (in telecom cable). The General Manager of the Shanghai Electric Cable Research Institute (SECRI), the country s leading institute for wires and cables research, design and testing, stated in November 2009, We expect the first superconductor cable deployment in China s power grid to occur early in the next decade and that this will lead to widespread adoption of superconductors throughout China. The technical and economic advantages of employing HTS cables are numerous and include the following: Zero electrical resistance implying zero energy losses. Conducts over 150 times the electrical current of copper cables of the same dimensions. A dramatic reduction in the size of the cable and thus weight of associated equipment. Power throughput is significantly increased. HTS cables can be used in existing infrastructures (underground tunnels and conduits) because of their small size. High power capacity at lower voltage so enabling easier siting and reduced ancillary system costs.
The study is designed to show how these developments will impact copper s use in power cables by year to 2020. Our Methodology includes Discussions with power cable producers, scientists, technical consultants and others on how soon and at what rate HTS cables and other technology will be introduced into the grid network together with the extent that HTS cables will impact the use of copper. Discussions with parties concerned to cover the remaining 15% not controlled by the SGC. The final model will be set out as follows China Power Cable Production by Cable Type & Copper Used 1998-2008 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Low Voltage Production Km 155,000 170,000 180,000 198,000 210,000 230,000 271,000 298,000 325,000 365,000 400,000 Of AI. % 25 20 19 19 18 17 17 17 17 17 16 Production Cu Km 116,250 136,000 145,800 160,380 172,200 190,900 224,930 247,340 269,750 302,950 336,710 Cu per Km/t 2.00 2.00 2.15 2.15 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 Cu Consumption 232,500 272,000 313,470 344,817 387,450 429,525 506,093 556,515 606,938 681,638 757,600 Medium Voltage Cable Production Km 25,000 28,000 31,000 34,000 37,000 43,000 54,000 60,200 65,000 74,000 71,500 Of AI.% 27 25 22 20 19 18 18 18 18 18 19 Production Cu Km 18,250 21,000 24,180 27,200 29,970 35,260 44,280 49,364 53,300 60,680 62,460 Cu per Km/t 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 Cu Consumption 118,625 136,500 157,170 176,800 194,805 229,190 287,820 320,866 346,450 394,420 406,000 High Voltage Cable Book Now Production Km 540 700 1200 1600 1800 2500 4000 5700 7100 79,500 93,000 Of AI. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Production Cu Km 540 700 1200 1600 1800 2500 4000 5700 7100 79,500 93,000 Cu per Km/t 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 Cu Consumption 3,834 4,970 8,520 11,360 12,780 17,750 28,400 40,470 50,410 56,445 66,030 Total Cu Consumption 354,959 413,470 479,160 532,977 595,035 676,465 822,313 917,851 1,003,798 1,132,503 1,296,630 in Power Cable
Tables of Contents 1. Introduction History of China s power cable infrastructure Current Structure of the Grid Network Future focus on development of Smart Grid New Technologies 2. Executive Summary 3. State Grid Investment Plans Rural Urban Long-distance Overhead city lines Underground cables 4. Investment plans in LV, MV, HV Historical data of 2000 2010 Future up to 2020 5. Historical use of Conductors Materials up to 2010 Copper Aluminum Others 6. New Technologies: 6.1 High Temperature Superconductors (HTS) History of HTS development Different HTS technologies Main Cable leaders in HTS Advantages of Using HTS Current status globally Current Status in China Commercial Introduction of HTS into the State Grid by Year 6.2 New Technologies: Nanotubes Nanotube development Potential commercial use in LV wires and cables 6.3 Conductive Polymers & Graphite Film Developments Potential for commercial use in State Grid 7. Conclusion Forecast annual production of LV, MV, HV cables by year to 2020 Changes in weight of conductor material by year, if any Breakdown between conductor materials by year to 2020 Use of copper, aluminium, HTS, Others by year to 2020. You can t afford to Miss it As China is taking an increasingly important role in global copper market, this report is of key value for anyone who is involved in: Producing copper and aluminum Using copper and aluminum Trading copper and aluminum Analyzing copper and aluminum Investing in copper and aluminum
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