Solar can no longer be ignored Solar Roadshow 2014 Update on where UK Solar PV is going Ray Noble - STA Solar Specialist - Co-Chair of DECC Solar Strategy - NSC Associate
How are we doing? FIT by Capacity up to October 2013 Note: Solar PV by number of installations = 99% 25
Regions performance FIT by Regions -Solar PV dominates 25
Installation Rates Solar can no longer be ignored Concentrate on the last 6 months Weekly capacity has increased steadily from 5MW to 11MW Installation rates from around 1,500 to nearly 3,000. Steady growth likely to continue in 2014
Market FIT market Sectors sectors since July 2013 Solar can no longer be ignored Number of installs Added Capacity Average Size 0 to 10kWp 40,859 125.98MW 3.08kWp 10 to 50kWp 1,084 32.16MW 29.7kWp 50kWp to 5MW 131 53.77MW 410.5kWp Figures exclude RO where majority of projects are over 5MW
Comparison new MCS with Actual on a Likely growth poor year for weather to 2020 GWp Total Installed Ground Mounted Financial Years 11
Comparison new MCS with Actual on a What FIT changes poor year for weather are possible? DECC investigating which non financial barriers are preventing greater growth particularly in the Social Housing and Medium to Large Buildings, things like:- - 90% aggregation rule on Social Housing / Buildings -EPC D re Solid Wall Domestics and Buildings -above 50kWp projects -relaxing digression period from 3 to 6 months -possible new tariff / new band for 250kWp to 1MWp - Permitted Development - extend from 50kWp to 5MWp -All above will require DECC to come out to Consultation, so nota quick change, but could be linked to Solar Strategy document to be released in late March. 11
Comparison new MCS with Actual on a What is wrong with poor year for weather Is it because:- the market? - Public concerns re their jobs, effective salary s reducing, no savings? -Confusion re FIT s -too late, no longer available, subsidies about to be stopped, add s extra costs on energy bills, Ministers stopping Green! -Energy prices continue to rise, they will NOT stop, + 6% + inflation (guaranteed double of price to encourage Nuclear to bebuilt by 2023) -EV market starting to grow as well as greater use of domestic electricity (more electricity required and therefore increased bills) 11
Comparison new MCS with Actual on a Market should poor year for weather be buoyant! Solar can provide protection against future price rises for the next 50 years and Government will pay for it!! -FIT s set out to 2015 (around 12% returns) and a FIT 2 likely to be available until 2020 -ROC s set out to 2017 (around 10% returns) - CfD starts, and overlaps with ROC s initially, from 2014 -No funding cap -Solar installed prices have reduced significantly and continue to reduce -Solar allows forward purchase of electricity for 50 years - Domestic storage devices coming to the market -Savings -interest rates continue to be negligible (2%) and cheap money to borrow available at present 11
Comparison new MCS with Actual on a poor year for weather FIT Tariffs & ROC Rates FIT System (kwp) Before 1 st April 2014 After 1 st April 2014 0 to 4 14.90p/kWh 14.38p/kWh 4 to 10 13.50p/kWh 13.03p/kWh 10 to 50 12.57p/kWh 12.13p/kWh 50 to 100 10.71p/kWh 10.71p/kWh 100 to 150 10.71p/kWh 10.71p/kWh 150 to 250 10.25p/kWh 10.25p/kWh 250 to 5000 6.61p/kWh 6.61p/kWh Stand Alone 6.61p/kWh 6.61p/kWh Export Tariff 4.64p/kWh 4.77p/kWh ROC s Up to 1 st April 2014 After 1 st April 2014 Buildings 1.7 1.6 Ground Mounted 1.6 1.4 11
Higher generation Solar works New MCS Guide figures MCS Design kwh/kwp Zone Zone 1 985 kwh/kwp Zone 2 1132 Zone 3 1023 Zone 4 1093 Zone 5W 950 Zone 5E 972 Zone 6 937 Zone 7W 933 Zone 7E 866 Zone 8S 868 Zone 8E 880 Zone 9S 906 Zone 9E 907 Zone 10 918 Zone 11 893 Zone 12 963 Zone 13 922 Zone 14 835 Zone 15 944 Zone 16 877 Zone 17 837 Zone 18 768 Zone 19 735 Zone 20 714 Zone 21 847 9
Comparison new MCS with Actual on a Weather and poor year for weather Design House located near Consett in County Durham Multi crystalline Chinese modules with a SMA inverter 10
Comparison new MCS with Actual on a Graphical poor year for weather Comparison kwh 11
Comparison new UK MCS Housing with Energy Actual on a poor year for weather Fact File https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/united-kingdom-housing-energy-fact-file-2013 11
Tackling partial shading What have we achieved recently? Where it is not possible to avoid shading an assessment should be done as to how much of the array will be affected and at what times of the year. A design may show it is more cost effective to use a traditional inverter for part of the array and micro inverters for the remainder. 5
BIPV Roofs What have we achieved recently? The appearance of Solar modules are not liked by some potential customers, particularly on new buildings. Maximising the roof area, without need to interface with concrete tiles, will be the future roof products 5
BIPV Roofs What have we achieved recently? The future is where half of the roof is Solar and not having to work glass modules and concrete tiles. It is starting to happen and new products are coming to the market 5
Commercial roofs What have we achieved recently? Medium and large roofs are ideal for Solar. Mounting Solar modules direct to the roof covering satisfies the Planners. The electricity generated in many cases is all used within the building. Potential customers cover a variety of business types. 5
BIPV on Commercial Buildings What have we achieved recently? Building cladding will be Solar material as we move to Zero Carbon Building designs 5
Not all ground mounted solar is big! What have we achieved recently? Ground mounted Solar can be done in any size. Some buildings are not suitable for Solar on the roof and with a PPA can be viable. 5
Big or small make them invisible What have we achieved recently? By careful site selection and screening by hedges and trees Solar in the Countryside can be made in visible. Previously used land or land with little agricultural value is preferred. See NSC good guidance and STA member commitments. 5
EV Solar charging What have we achieved recently? Solar Canopies charging of electric vehicles with clean electricity or can be an extension of the buildings Solar electricity supply. 5
Solar Canopies What have we achieved recently? Surface car parks, of which there are significant numbers with many being very large, can be an extension of the adjacent buildings Solar electricity supply. Solar Canopies could well be the next growth market. 5
Use products correctly What have we achieved recently? -Using correct details generates a sustainable industry. - Shortcuts bite back later -Report anyone you see doing it wrong. 5
Don t take shortcuts! What have we achieved recently? Accidents / failures occur by taking shortcuts or not finishing the work correctly. A point to note is that DC connections must be done correctly otherwise arcing can occur and be a potential cause a fire. 5
Work with Builders What have we achieved recently? Building industry are starting to include Solar as part of the build. Planning rules, Carbon savings and Client requirements are forcing them to get involved. The learnings for the builder in this case are:- 1.Solar not so good on the North facing roofs! 2.Flashings should not overlap the Solar Cells. 3.Staining causes reduction in Solar generation. 5
Comparison new MCS with Actual on a Even the floods don t poor year for weather stop Solar generating! Boggy land with no agricultural value, even within flood zones, can be used for Solar Generation 11
Your Roof Campaign We presently have over 500,000 roofs generating electricity fromsolar, all achieved in less than 3 years. The STA Your Roof campaign is to inform the potential customers and push for this total to reach 1 million by 2015. A specific website has been created for potential customers to get the correct facts and advice. www.yourroof.info 24
Thank You rnoble@solar-trade.org.uk www.solar-trade.org.uk 24
Comparison new MCS with Actual on a Will the Technology poor year for weather Continue to improve? Cell Type 2012 2013 2014 2015 Multi 16.8% - 17.0% 17.5% - 18.0% 18.2% - 18.6% 19.0% - 21.0% Mono 18.5% - 19.0% 19.5% - 20.0% 20.5% - 21.8% 21.0% - 23.0% Module Type 2012 2013 2014 2015 Multi 245Wp 250Wp 250Wp 260Wp 260Wp 265Wp 270Wp 290Wp Mono 265Wp 270Wp 275Wp 280Wp 290Wp 295Wp 300Wp 320Wp Improvements in cell efficiency by various process improvements together with lower cost / Wp. Outputs based on a 60 cell module. 11
New Buildings What have we achieved recently? As we move towards Zero Carbon Buildings using Solar as the building fabric will become commonplace. Stimulating this market will require the Solar industry and building industry to work together. 5
Comparison new MCS with Actual on a National Solar poor year for weather Centre The National Solar Centre was set up last year to provide independent evidence based information on Solar PV and Solar Thermal. NSC now based at the Eden Project in Cornwall 11
Comparison new MCS with Actual on a National Solar poor year for weather Centre Some of the work includes:- - Side by side comparison testing of module performance in UK weather - Affects of changes in Orientation and Inclination -Training Courses in design of all sizes of systems - Training Courses in installation of various sizes of projects -Working with the Met Office to produce potential generation figures based on actual light levels matched to the performance of existing systems - Inverter testing - standard and micro - Device testing including, Optimisers, Glass Coatings, - Consultancy advice (Reports for DECC) / investigations -NSC/ IET presently writing a Solar Code of Practice to cover all projects up to 50MW - See www.bre.co.uk/nsc 11
What have we achieved recently? Solar Thermal The RHI should commence early summer and should help stimulate the Solar Thermal market. It is not expected for the market to grow rapidly as there will not be a cost reduction like Solar PV. However steady growth is expected. 5
Ground Mounted Solar Thermal What have we achieved recently? Mounting a Solar Thermal system on the ground can be a solution for some customers Watch weed growth and other shading issues 5
What have we achieved recently? Thank You rn.solarbipv@gmail.com 5